Guild Wars 2

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

No, it isn’t.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_forge

Astraea.6075:

I was going to reply to Tallis, but I realised there wasn’t much point… people believe all sorts of crazy things despite evidence to the contrary.

Do you really think that a company doesn’t try to maximise their profit? Read a job description for any marketing person and you’ll see. Just because Anet is a gaming company doesn’t mean that they would do their marketing different than other companies.

But I understand that alot of people do not want to think about that kind of things because they see it as manipulation and no one likes to see themselves as being manipulated.

Tallis.5607:

Astraea.6075:

I was going to reply to Tallis, but I realised there wasn’t much point… people believe all sorts of crazy things despite evidence to the contrary.

Do you really think that a company doesn’t try to maximise their profit? Read a job description for any marketing person and you’ll see. Just because Anet is a gaming company doesn’t mean that they would do their marketing different than other companies.

But I understand that alot of people do not want to think about that kind of things because they see it as manipulation and no one likes to see themselves as being manipulated.

(Apologies to everybody else for the derail…)

Maximising profits is one thing…

I bet that there is someone atanet who’s job it is to ensure that the prices in the TP are set in such a way that it generates extra income in $$$ for Anet. They say it’s ‘player driven’, but if Anet can make -say- 3 million a month extra by selling gems because of the high prices on TP, you can be pretty sure they will intervene on the TP.

but the above accusation is another thing entirely, especially when you offer absolutely no evidence of such “price setting” occurring and all my experience with the TP indicates that it is in fact player driven.

It would be very cool to see various stats about the economy on a regular basis.
WoW did pretty well making sure there was a lot of info on the web, so jokers like me could pretend to be playing while at work! (I am really looking forward to some iPhone and iPad apps as well.)
I think that keeping people interested and playing the economy will be good for GW overall, actually— there will always be someone who is willing to spend a little more time than you in the game, and worrying about it is best left to people in control of this economy.

To make up for my last couple of off-topic posts, here’s a couple of things I’d like to see in terms of statistics:

1) Some kind of index to measure inflation – there may need to be more than one index to cover different groups of items, but it would be useful to have some solid data to prove or disprove claims about how inflation is affecting the economy.

2) Wealth distribution – this may be tricky because it should not just be focused purely on gold held by an account (in real life a person’s wealth isn’t measured solely by their cash assets), but it won’t necessarily be easy to assign values to some items that people are holding onto.

3) Trading volumes/values – As well as the raw figures, I’d be interested in seeing this broken down in a similar manner to a Lorentz curve for buyers and sellers (e.g. percentage of players by both volume and value of activity)

Ursan.7846:

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

No, it isn’t.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_forge

Technically it is.

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling
- http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gamble
- http://www.thefreedictionary.com/gamble
- http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/gamble

All of the following have the gambling factor in it:

- Random Number Generator (RNG)
- Diminishing Returns (DR)
- Trading Post (TP)
- Mystic Forge (MF)

The people who have gotten wealthy (rich) within this game know how to “play the odds”, especially on a larger scale. They didn’t have a streak of luck, while now can take more risks to potentially gain even more profit.

IMO, it is too late for ANet to add sinks to stop this and sooner or later these people will (if not already) control the market. ANet is playing a catchup game now. The only solution would be to omit being just another statistical number of a power-trader – which would effectively mean not using the TP.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Ursan.7846:

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

No, it isn’t.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_forge

Technically it is.

No it is not. “Purely gambling” would mean the mystic forge has no set recipes, and is completely random. Which is not the case. It has many many set recipes that have no element of randomness to it.

Astraea.6075:

To make up for my last couple of off-topic posts, here’s a couple of things I’d like to see in terms of statistics:

1) Some kind of index to measure inflation – there may need to be more than one index to cover different groups of items, but it would be useful to have some solid data to prove or disprove claims about how inflation is affecting the economy.

2) Wealth distribution – this may be tricky because it should not just be focused purely on gold held by an account (in real life a person’s wealth isn’t measured solely by their cash assets), but it won’t necessarily be easy to assign values to some items that people are holding onto.

3) Trading volumes/values – As well as the raw figures, I’d be interested in seeing this broken down in a similar manner to a Lorentz curve for buyers and sellers (e.g. percentage of players by both volume and value of activity)

Players can actually measure inflation for themselves.

I got bored in my Public Speaking class today and was determining the Elasticity of certain GW2 items, heh.

With Spidy you could easily track data and determine inflation based on a decent sample size of goods.

xxxzavulonxxx.8413:

Players can actually measure inflation for themselves.

I got bored in my Public Speaking class today and was determining the Elasticity of certain GW2 items, heh.

With Spidy you could easily track data and determine inflation based on a decent sample size of goods.

I’ve thought about doing something similar, but I’m not sure about the methodology I’d use to apply weightings to different goods. An “official” index might be able to draw on data we players don’t see, such as volumes traded to help determine such a weighting.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Technically it is.

- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambling
- http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/gamble
- http://www.thefreedictionary.com/gamble
- http://oxforddictionaries.com/definition/english/gamble

All of the following have the gambling factor in it:

- Random Number Generator (RNG)
- Diminishing Returns (DR)
- Trading Post (TP)
- Mystic Forge (MF)

The people who have gotten wealthy (rich) within this game know how to “play the odds”, especially on a larger scale. They didn’t have a streak of luck, while now can take more risks to potentially gain even more profit.

IMO, it is too late for ANet to add sinks to stop this and sooner or later these people will (if not already) control the market. ANet is playing a catchup game now. The only solution would be to omit being just another statistical number of a power-trader – which would effectively mean not using the TP.

I’m not sure how the definition of gambling (in the context in which the subject was first broached) applies to Diminishing Returns or Trading Post speculation. And equating RNG to gambling is a bit of a stretch IMO.

I suspect the true volume of the market, combined with the fact that these wealthy traders are likely to be in competition with each other in quite a few markets, means that the likelihood of anyone controlling the market is within the realms of the absurd.

Novalight.7568:

Astraea.6075:

@EssenceSnow: While your point has some validity, I feel that blaming the trading post for this is a bit misguided.

In any game that allows players to trade items (whether face-to-face or indirectly via some kind of auction system), you will find people who making profits from buying and reselling items. The existence of a global TP may make this process more efficient for these people, but the process is driven by human nature not by the game system.

It can be argued that the global TP brings many benefits for the average player who doesn’t care about accumulating wealth through trading, not least of which is easy availability of market price information for items they want to buy or sell. Another benefit is the scale of the market increases the amount of competition for both buyers and sellers (meaning item values quickly adjust to appropriate levels despite attempts at market manipulation) and makes it easier to find people to buy your goods or who are selling items you want.

Do these benefits outweigh the “negatives” of easier wealth accumulation for traders? I may be biased, but I think they do for the great majority of items being traded on the market. Items with limited supply such as precursors/legendaries are a bit of an outlier from how the rest of the system works in my view, but they are also a highly visible aspect of the market that everyone seems to focus on.

Wow, human nature, really… I never knew. Urge to buy and resell rising! Guess I missed the memo that everyone is a greedy kitten or did I sleep over the indoctrination classes that said money>anything else. Who knows.

As for benefits, yeah sure. You’re (all flippers/power traders combined) benefiting exactly less than 0 (omg, it’s negative). Tax, posting fee, your profit = how much less money other players have, it’s pretty simple. You’re not creating, just distributing from others to yourself (in nature such organisms are known as parasites I believe).

Flippers not only help the economy, they’re almost essential for it. The vast majority of players do not have the time, knowledge, or lack of risk aversion it takes to post items for sell orders. Those players also generally aren’t willing or able to place buy offers. Flippers are the oil for the entire economy. They provide the buy offers for all those weapons, armor, and trinkets that otherwise couldn’t sustain their own markets. They reduce the natural volatility in the crafting material markets.

Essentially, flippers ensure items are always available for purchase, and that offers are always available for people to sell their items. Yes, they earn profits for what they do, but they’re also taking on significant risk while providing these services. Personally, I lost about 10g on a particular item recently when the price suddenly shifted and never recovered. I know plenty of others who have lost money on other investments as well. Look at what happened with T6 fine materials in December.

Heres an interesting thought experiment, what if the Gem -> Gold conversion rate was based in whole or in part on the value of a basket of high end materials, such as ectos, lodestones, t6 mats, etc. I imagine an inflationary pressure, however by buying such materials one could hypothetically preserve most his purchasing power. Then again such a system without some safegaurd would be ripe for manipulation, perhaps a delay on the conversion rate to give the market enough time to reach equilibrium…hmm economics presents so many interesting challenges.

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Ursan.7846:

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

No, it isn’t.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_forge

Technically it is.

No it is not. “Purely gambling” would mean the mystic forge has no set recipes, and is completely random. Which is not the case. It has many many set recipes that have no element of randomness to it.

Gambling is based on chance and varying outcome. Within GW2, there are several aspects of it that are based on chance and varying outcome. The mystic forge has, indeed, predetermined several outcomes based on the input, however, these are controled by the RNG which can produce various outcomes. Here are some examples:

- Obtaining mystic clovers
- Adding 4 rares to get an exotic
- Transmutation of crafting materials

The moment your action can produce two or more outcomes is when it is considered gambling.

Astraea.6075:

I’m not sure how the definition of gambling (in the context in which the subject was first broached) applies to Diminishing Returns or Trading Post speculation. And equating RNG to gambling is a bit of a stretch IMO.

Ok, gambling within the following aspects:

Diminishing Returns – We are not certain what controls this and this is the first indication that its outcome has more than one result. What we do know, however, is that spending too much time in a certain area can potentially reduce loot quality. Therefore you are gambling time for loot quality.

Trading Post – This is a simple one. Flipping! Using the TP is like a stock exchange – you are gambling by flipping between items.

RNG – Speaks for itself – RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR.

Mystic Forge – You put in 4 items to obtain something else. That something else, although has several predetermined results, varies with probability. Therefore you are gambling items to get something you want but may not get it every single time with all combinations.

You see guys, you are always gambling in GW2. You are using some thing(s) to obtain some thing(s) better, however, it (outcome) may not always work in your favour. This is why it is called gambling.

John Smith.4610:

xxxzavulonxxx.8413:

Astraea.6075:

To make up for my last couple of off-topic posts, here’s a couple of things I’d like to see in terms of statistics:

1) Some kind of index to measure inflation – there may need to be more than one index to cover different groups of items, but it would be useful to have some solid data to prove or disprove claims about how inflation is affecting the economy.

2) Wealth distribution – this may be tricky because it should not just be focused purely on gold held by an account (in real life a person’s wealth isn’t measured solely by their cash assets), but it won’t necessarily be easy to assign values to some items that people are holding onto.

3) Trading volumes/values – As well as the raw figures, I’d be interested in seeing this broken down in a similar manner to a Lorentz curve for buyers and sellers (e.g. percentage of players by both volume and value of activity)

Players can actually measure inflation for themselves.

I got bored in my Public Speaking class today and was determining the Elasticity of certain GW2 items, heh.

With Spidy you could easily track data and determine inflation based on a decent sample size of goods.

You could try, but you’d be wrong 99.9% of the time. You also most certainly cannot measure elasticity through spidy because 1. It updates slower than trading. 2. It doesn’t show actual trades.

You are wrong on both accounts.

Inflation is measured over time. Spidy is perfect for that.

The only problem with measuring elasticity using spidy is the quantity demanded is kind of skewed. As people have ridiculously low bids on the TP. But you can measure it using spidy in a way that gives a somewhat accurate portrayal of the goods. I think you would find with your own data that crafting materials are pretty inelastic.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Gambling is based on chance and varying outcome. Within GW2, there are several aspects of it that are based on chance and varying outcome. The mystic forge has, indeed, predetermined several outcomes based on the input, however, these are controled by the RNG which can produce various outcomes.

You should really read the entire wiki page before you make a statement like that. The Mystic Forge has many, many pre-set recipes with a determined, non-random outcome. Hence the Mystic Forge is not “Purely Gambling”

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge/Other_Items

And yes, I understand what gambling is, thank you very much.

With John ITT, I’d greatly appreciate an answer to the following: Are drop rates (for item X for example) affected by the amount of said item on TP?

Also, a definitive answer to “Is ecto rate affected by salvage kit quality?” will be more than welcome.

raises hand I have a question:

Would giving players access to volume of sales information lead to better decision making and a more ideal marketplace?

It seems we’re operating in the dark quite a bit more that people realize if entire stocks are rotating in the space of a day.

I deal in mithril ore (that is to say I dig it up then sell it) and I’ve seen that I can price above the first several hundred to low-thousands of the lowest sale offers and still make my sale within an hour. Even then the lowest offer is usually right back where it was when I posted mine by the time I pick up my coin. The volume that gets traded must be staggering.

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Gambling is based on chance and varying outcome. Within GW2, there are several aspects of it that are based on chance and varying outcome. The mystic forge has, indeed, predetermined several outcomes based on the input, however, these are controled by the RNG which can produce various outcomes.

You should really read the entire wiki page before you make a statement like that. The Mystic Forge has many, many pre-set recipes with a determined, non-random outcome. Hence the Mystic Forge is not “Purely Gambling”

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge/Other_Items

And yes, I understand what gambling is, thank you very much.

Umm I know there are many predetermined combinations with one outcome, HOWEVER, there are aspects of it that when used it may produce different set of outcomes. Did you take into account my examples? (i.e. one of them being adding four rare to get a chance for an exotic)

In a general sense, the moment you put items into the mystic forge – you are gambling!

Do I really need to start giving wiki examples?

John Smith.4610:

You could try, but you’d be wrong 99.9% of the time. You also most certainly cannot measure elasticity through spidy because 1. It updates slower than trading. 2. It doesn’t show actual trades.

Yes, you keep mentioning how none of us has access to the actual trade data. And I agree, but also keep bringing up why don’t we? Several other MMOs I’ve played actually show a price history, sometimes even a crude way to measure volume of activity.

It’d be far more useful for the TP to show price history/volume than the current buy/sell offers – to know for how much stuff is actually selling and how often. That would create a more open and fairer market, and dispel a lot of these so called conspiracy theories.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Gambling is based on chance and varying outcome. Within GW2, there are several aspects of it that are based on chance and varying outcome. The mystic forge has, indeed, predetermined several outcomes based on the input, however, these are controled by the RNG which can produce various outcomes.

You should really read the entire wiki page before you make a statement like that. The Mystic Forge has many, many pre-set recipes with a determined, non-random outcome. Hence the Mystic Forge is not “Purely Gambling”
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge/Other_Items
And yes, I understand what gambling is, thank you very much.

Umm I know there are many predetermined combinations with one outcome, HOWEVER, there are aspects of it that when used it may produce different set of outcomes. Did you take into account my examples? (i.e. one of them being adding four rare to get a chance for an exotic)
In a general sense, the moment you put items into the mystic forge – you are gambling!
Do I really need to start giving wiki examples?

It’s not gambling just because there’s chance involved. And you said it’s “purely gambling”, which is just wrong since there’s no chance involved in many situations at all.

marnick.4305:

snip – post too long*

Not that I personally play the TP.. I play like a hippie and supplement my lack of gold income with gems I get from real life. I won’t complain about people smarter than me playing the market. That’s the difference between you and me.

As far as creating value goes … TP players invest time. EG they clear buy orders and set sell orders. Due to this, both seller and buyer get their gold faster due to the investment of the TP player. The TP player invests the time normally required by both other players. TP players also buy low value items, upgrade them to high value items, as such they create a supply for high demand items and demand for high supply items. That’s good for casual players.
In the end, all they do is balance out the market. Every single flip lowers margins for that particular flip. The TP would actually be more imbalanced without TP players. As time goes on, it becomes ever less likely for casual players to make dumb sales on the TP because all margins will be zero. As a casual player, I welcome that, and yes, they are allowed to earn money for their time…

Well well, I’m complaining about people that are smarter and I believe commie propaganda. In McCarthy’s time I’d get prosecuted I guess.
Oh and since having money=smart it seems, or I see that being implied in your post…lots of world scientists are then dumb as a rock or what?

1) I’m an economist in RL and business analyst, but I’m not really into having loads of money and I dislike funky business practices, I rather have more free time and hang out with friends/enjoy games. Guess that influences my outlook on GW2/games economy and economy in general. I also dislike poverty (unless the person is lazy as hell and won’t even try to get a job, BUT, if the jobs available are so crappy that meet the bare minimum for a person to live, then I’m fine either way since I don’t believe in near-slave like use of people) and by that count I also dislike practices that make/keep people poor. I’m not poor in RL or in the game btw, neither am I rich, happy middle class I guess.

2) John said that some items revolve 3-4 times per day. Since it’s world TP it makes sense, since there is hundreds of thousands of players doing stuff each day. Single market and the sheer amount of players leads me to believe the market would correct itself without intervention of flippers/power traders (the concept is quite simple, someone posts price, if it sells fast items with higher price remain, until price reaches the point where the frequency of buying is the same as frequency of supply – insert powertraders and manipulators…well, there goes that equation to smithereens + if you insert buy orders it’s a bit more complicated but the basic mechanism is still there, cba to write dissertations)

3) You kinda underestimate people. Don’t know how to use TP? What’s a price, hurr, press random buttons on TP. But if they in general pay higher prices it’s ok eh? Yes, my stance is, flipping and price manipulations are lowering the wealth of players. Due to price fluctuations that occur anyways due to supply/demand there might be a time when you pay less that you would otherwise but in general you pay more (since it’s very hard to understand I’ll say it again: their increase of money from simply flipping a thing=other peoples decrease in money ).

4) Buying items and creating higher value items is different from just reselling and price fixing.

5) Every single flip needs to cover 1 more time the expenses (listing fee, tax) + margin of the flipper. So that is an automatic price increase of the flipper (if all goes well and the price doesn’t plummet for somekind of reason).

6) I care as much for the flipping and “power” trading to post when someone has an attitude I dislike (which sadly influences my posts to be a tad snarky). In case of TP I dislike how people manipulating market claim to do good deeds, samaritans selflessly toiling to bring us cheaper goods and the gold they earn is just an unfortunate product that seemingly doesn’t come from other players.
Idk, it’s magic…buy and repost for higher prices = selling stuff for less saving me money. Mind=blown. I’ve done it myself for a few days just for the lulz, made gold, but I was bored outta my mind and I had no illusions I was doing anyone a favour ( I had more, they had less).

7) Margins going to 0…oh, so much to write about that one also. Meh, too much.

Sorry for somewhat unstructured reply. And there are a few points that I made that could use expanding how I came to a certain conclusion, but as I said, cba to write dissertations, post longer as intended anyways -_-’

John Smith.4610:

Dreamslayer.7659:

Vol.5241:

I don’t know why people here think they know more about the economy than an economist.

A couple reasons, but the main reason is that the study of economics is the study of human behavior and psychology and as such, it is imperfect, incomplete and subject to very different interpretations and perspectives.

It’s the voodoo witch doctor profession of our age.

This is very far from the truth.
Even more so inside of MMOs where there is complete data.

I think economic theory crafting is similar to weather forecasting. While there are eons of research and data and physical models, the process of forecasting still leaves many without an umbrella when it is raining . What is unique about mmos is that we know there are gods creating the weather; that is ‘simply’ the nature of the thing.

For me, how much information the publishers make available is a paradox. Do we need to argue the market value of information, or how information can move markets? Before we see more info, I think we need to talk about how to role-play a Tyrian economic pundit.

edited for spelling

Nike.2631:

raises hand I have a question:

Would giving players access to volume of sales information lead to better decision making and a more ideal marketplace?

It seems we’re operating in the dark quite a bit more that people realize if entire stocks are rotating in the space of a day.

I deal in mithril ore (that is to say I dig it up then sell it) and I’ve seen that I can price above the first several hundred to low-thousands of the lowest sale offers and still make my sale within an hour. Even then the lowest offer is usually right back where it was when I posted mine by the time I pick up my coin. The volume that gets traded must be staggering.

Like an average of how many times a commodity is traded before it is used?

Psientist.6437:

Nike.2631:

raises hand I have a question:

Would giving players access to volume of sales information lead to better decision making and a more ideal marketplace?

It seems we’re operating in the dark quite a bit more that people realize if entire stocks are rotating in the space of a day.

I deal in mithril ore (that is to say I dig it up then sell it) and I’ve seen that I can price above the first several hundred to low-thousands of the lowest sale offers and still make my sale within an hour. Even then the lowest offer is usually right back where it was when I posted mine by the time I pick up my coin. The volume that gets traded must be staggering.

Like an average of how many times a commodity is traded before it is used?

Like an average # of transactions per hour/day. Volume listed on gw2spidy is very misleading as it shows unfulfilled orders – whereas volume in a real market context refers to completed trades.

While we’re at it I’d love to be able to short items… as it stands now there is no deflationary pressure within the market itself (not counting the fees), you can only make money through prices going up. I know this will never happen but one can dream. It would be good for the economy, and lower prices for average players! But actually.

John Smith.4610:

Astraea.6075:

Rakuren Kenshou.7689:

My guess is that it would probably be very similar to real world economics, where 1% of the people own 99% of the wealth.

If they start posting confirmations on this, we’ll end up with an “occupy wall street” movement in game. Players flooding the trading post in protest. Players refusing to buy/sell materials until changes are made to the game. Huge market crashes as the wealthy players try to offload everything they own in response. Chaos.

While there will be some superficial similarities, I seriously doubt the wealth inequality in game will mirror real world inequality as there are a number of factors that drive inequality in real economies that don’t exist in-game

For example, in the real world, having wealth enables you to create/find rent-seeking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rent_seeking) opportunities that don’t exist in this virtual economy. As a result, those who have already wealth in this game are generally not able to use that wealth to prevent others from gaining wealth.

You are correct. There are several good reasons why wealth distributions in game don’t mimic the US Economy.
Another reason is that the growth of wealth is exponential in many developed economies, where it’s closer to logarithmic in GW2.

The entire set of reasons would be a very interesting discussion…Well for me at least

Mr. Smith, of all the voices yours generates among the highest, localized, net-entropic values. That must be a burden, making it more difficult for you to speak-specific.

As evidenced by the distortion in the world load potential of ‘the stuff’ during Wintersday, Tyrian commodities are traded according to a semblance of physics. Myself would want a statement more than statistics. Something about long term production:salvage trajectory stability?

Not to call you out Mr. Smith, but instead recognizing the potential entropic effect of your voice when so many other developers get to talk about cool stuff….

What underlying principals of the Tyrian commodity market can we talk about openly, taking the risk of producing change?

wilarseny.7853:

Psientist.6437:

Nike.2631:

raises hand I have a question:

Would giving players access to volume of sales information lead to better decision making and a more ideal marketplace?

It seems we’re operating in the dark quite a bit more that people realize if entire stocks are rotating in the space of a day.

I deal in mithril ore (that is to say I dig it up then sell it) and I’ve seen that I can price above the first several hundred to low-thousands of the lowest sale offers and still make my sale within an hour. Even then the lowest offer is usually right back where it was when I posted mine by the time I pick up my coin. The volume that gets traded must be staggering.

Like an average of how many times a commodity is traded before it is used?

Like an average # of transactions per hour/day. Volume listed on gw2spidy is very misleading as it shows unfulfilled orders – whereas volume in a real market context refers to completed trades.

While we’re at it I’d love to be able to short items… as it stands now there is no deflationary pressure within the market itself (not counting the fees), you can only make money through prices going up. I know this will never happen but one can dream. It would be good for the economy, and lower prices for average players! But actually.

Whoever figures out how to explain it in-game through a NPC to a 15 year old human being should win something.

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

It can be. Precursors, etc.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Gambling is based on chance and varying outcome. Within GW2, there are several aspects of it that are based on chance and varying outcome. The mystic forge has, indeed, predetermined several outcomes based on the input, however, these are controled by the RNG which can produce various outcomes.

You should really read the entire wiki page before you make a statement like that. The Mystic Forge has many, many pre-set recipes with a determined, non-random outcome. Hence the Mystic Forge is not “Purely Gambling”

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge/Other_Items

And yes, I understand what gambling is, thank you very much.

Umm I know there are many predetermined combinations with one outcome, HOWEVER, there are aspects of it that when used it may produce different set of outcomes. Did you take into account my examples? (i.e. one of them being adding four rare to get a chance for an exotic)

In a general sense, the moment you put items into the mystic forge – you are gambling!

Do I really need to start giving wiki examples?

Do you just simply not comprehend the point I’m making? Or are you choosing to ignore it and trying to misrepresent my original point on purpose?

My original post was directed towards a poster who stated that “The Mystic Forge is pure gambling.” I refuted that statement, because that statement is false. There are many pre-determined recipes with a non-random outcome. Hence the statement “The Mystic Forge is pure gambling” is FALSE.

Stop trying to act like I said “The Mystic Forge doesn’t involve gambling.” I said NONE of that. It contains both random recipes and non-random recipes.

Iruwen.3164:

It’s not gambling just because there’s chance involved*. And you said it’s “purely gambling”, which is just wrong since there’s no chance involved in many situations at all.

0_o @ ^^^

Seriously?

http://www.thefreedictionary.com/Gambling

- To bet on an uncertain outcome, as of a contest.
- To play a game of chance for stakes.
- To take a risk in the hope of gaining an advantage or a benefit.
- To put up as a stake in gambling; wager.
- An act or undertaking of uncertain outcome; a risk

GW2 is filled with gambling aspects (i.e. TP, DR, RNG, MF), and never said it is exclusively gambling – if this is how you understood it then im sorry, this was not my intention.

Just because ‘gambling’ is unanimously associated to betting money, it doesn’t mean that is where it’s definition draws the line.

I gave concrete evidence and stand by my point of view. It feels like i’m running in circles here, therefore, there is no point in discussing this further.

@Ursan.7846 I did agree with you that it is not “Purely Gambling”. However, the general use of MF attracts the gambling feature. I would beleive that, generaly speaking, players use it to progress with their legendary. Hence why the ‘gambling’ aspect.

The person you are talking at (not ‘to’, because communication broke down a long way back) is doggedly, nay, pedantically pointing out that since there are recipies that have definite inputs with certain outputs executed through the Magic Fountain you cannot say that as a whole the Magic Fountain is pure gambling. This is a factual statement that completely missed the context.

Don’t sweat it. People who read for comprehension and information transfer (i.e. communication) understood the “the Magic Fountain is pure gambling” was a statement about the large subset of Magic fountain recipies that take 4 loosely associated imputs and deliever a random output.

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Astraea.6075:

I’m not sure how the definition of gambling (in the context in which the subject was first broached) applies to Diminishing Returns or Trading Post speculation. And equating RNG to gambling is a bit of a stretch IMO.

Ok, gambling within the following aspects:

Diminishing Returns – We are not certain what controls this and this is the first indication that its outcome has more than one result. What we do know, however, is that spending too much time in a certain area can potentially reduce loot quality. Therefore you are gambling time for loot quality.

Trading Post – This is a simple one. Flipping! Using the TP is like a stock exchange – you are gambling by flipping between items.

RNG – Speaks for itself – RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR.

Mystic Forge – You put in 4 items to obtain something else. That something else, although has several predetermined results, varies with probability. Therefore you are gambling items to get something you want but may not get it every single time with all combinations.

You see guys, you are always gambling in GW2. You are using some thing(s) to obtain some thing(s) better, however, it (outcome) may not always work in your favour. This is why it is called gambling.

So you’re using the broadest definiton of gambling (i.e. anything with an uncertain outcome, or risk) to make your point. In that case, crossing a busy highway could be considered gambling, running dungeons – gambling, flying to another city – gambling.

I’ll concede that the Trading Post could be considered gambling, but I feel it’s a bit more complex than that… e.g. if I craft an item and attempt to sell it on the TP for profit, there is a risk that I won’t sell it for the price I’ve listed it at, but that’s a risk I took when I crafted the item not because of the TP (i.e. I still might not manage to sell the item at my desired price if the game favored face-to-face trading over a TP).

Diminishing Returns – gambling time for loot quality? I’m sorry, that actually sounds like most of what happens in this and other games of the genre. If I spend time playing (or farming) the game, I’m gambling that the monsters will drop valuable loot? This is where I feel you are definitely using an overly broad definition of gambling.

RNG – where I have a problem with calling this gambling is that if seems like calling a deck of cards “gambling”. A deck of cards can enable games of chance, but aren’t gambling in and of themselves.

Again, your definition (“using some thing(s) to obtain some thing(s) better, however, it (outcome) may not always work in your favour”) could be applied to almost every situation in life as almost nothing is ever certain despite our beliefs otherwise. (I go to work in order to obtain money to pay my bills, but I’m “gambling” that the company doesn’t go bust before I get my next paycheck…)

RECIPES THAT ARE PREDETERMINED = NOT GAMBLING!!

RECIPES THAT ARE NOT PREDETERMINED = GAMBLING!!

THE MYSTIC FORGE HAS BOTH OF THESE THINGS SO YOU ARE BOTH RIGHT, OR IF IT MAKES YOU BOTH FEEL A WHOLE LOT WORSE, BOTH WRONG!!

NOW YOU CAN STOP ARGUING ok

All I will say at this point is – “Life is a gamble.”

:)

@ Novalight

If you’re really an economist (and I genuinely have to take that claim with a huge grain of salt considering the tremendous gaps in your understanding), how can you not understand the value of perpetual available markets, time-value of money, or value of risk seeking behavior/aversion? You constantly bemoan flippers, yet seem to have some bizarre idealized idea of how the market would work without them. If there were no people flipping item or otherwise investing in short term (non-need based) transactions, there would essentially be no working economy. But, judging from your refusal to respond to posts that point these things out, I expect you’ll continue to simply ignore everything that doesn’t confirm your preconceived notions.

Syeria.4812:

@ Novalight

If you’re really an economist (and I genuinely have to take that claim with a huge grain of salt considering the tremendous gaps in your understanding), how can you not understand the value of perpetual available markets, time-value of money, or value of risk seeking behavior/aversion? You constantly bemoan flippers, yet seem to have some bizarre idealized idea of how the market would work without them. If there were no people flipping item or otherwise investing in short term (non-need based) transactions, there would essentially be no working economy. But, judging from your refusal to respond to posts that point these things out, I expect you’ll continue to simply ignore everything that doesn’t confirm your preconceived notions.

Lol, I was just about to say the same thing! Man, how you take the words right out of my mouth. But I ‘ll be frank here, I personally doubt he’s related in any way to the field of economics. My impression is that he’s just using (unearned) title’s to put weight to his words. I’m sorry, but that’s just how it feels to me. I’ve actually been in the financial sector for a few years, though I dare not say I’m an expert or ‘analyst’ (analysts are rich by the way), and well, the arguments make no coherent sense, to be frank. But then, this is the internet, where anybody can be wannabes if they want to be. Still, was a good laugh.

Ursan.7846:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Ursan.7846:

Tallis.5607:

John Smith.4610:

Gambling would be fun for some people, but it has a lot of negatives to it, I think we’ll probably stay away from it.

The Mystic Forge is pure gambing, isn’t it?

No, it isn’t.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_forge

Technically it is.

No it is not. “Purely gambling” would mean the mystic forge has no set recipes, and is completely random. Which is not the case. It has many many set recipes that have no element of randomness to it.

then betting on yourself in duel, or betting on your guild wouldnt be pure gambling either, which is where the whole question line originated from.

now i could see problems with betting like as in on football games, (people throwing matches) but betting on yourself, or you guild, and only being able to win the opposing peoples money/items/etc seems pretty entertaining to me.

Astraea.6075:

Death Reincarnated.3570:

Astraea.6075:

I’m not sure how the definition of gambling (in the context in which the subject was first broached) applies to Diminishing Returns or Trading Post speculation. And equating RNG to gambling is a bit of a stretch IMO.

Ok, gambling within the following aspects:

Diminishing Returns – We are not certain what controls this and this is the first indication that its outcome has more than one result. What we do know, however, is that spending too much time in a certain area can potentially reduce loot quality. Therefore you are gambling time for loot quality.

Trading Post – This is a simple one. Flipping! Using the TP is like a stock exchange – you are gambling by flipping between items.

RNG – Speaks for itself – RANDOM NUMBER GENERATOR.

Mystic Forge – You put in 4 items to obtain something else. That something else, although has several predetermined results, varies with probability. Therefore you are gambling items to get something you want but may not get it every single time with all combinations.

You see guys, you are always gambling in GW2. You are using some thing(s) to obtain some thing(s) better, however, it (outcome) may not always work in your favour. This is why it is called gambling.

So you’re using the broadest definiton of gambling (i.e. anything with an uncertain outcome, or risk) to make your point. In that case, crossing a busy highway could be considered gambling, running dungeons – gambling, flying to another city – gambling.

I’ll concede that the Trading Post could be considered gambling, but I feel it’s a bit more complex than that… e.g. if I craft an item and attempt to sell it on the TP for profit, there is a risk that I won’t sell it for the price I’ve listed it at, but that’s a risk I took when I crafted the item not because of the TP (i.e. I still might not manage to sell the item at my desired price if the game favored face-to-face trading over a TP).

Diminishing Returns – gambling time for loot quality? I’m sorry, that actually sounds like most of what happens in this and other games of the genre. If I spend time playing (or farming) the game, I’m gambling that the monsters will drop valuable loot? This is where I feel you are definitely using an overly broad definition of gambling.

RNG – where I have a problem with calling this gambling is that if seems like calling a deck of cards “gambling”. A deck of cards can enable games of chance, but aren’t gambling in and of themselves.

Again, your definition (“using some thing(s) to obtain some thing(s) better, however, it (outcome) may not always work in your favour”) could be applied to almost every situation in life as almost nothing is ever certain despite our beliefs otherwise. (I go to work in order to obtain money to pay my bills, but I’m “gambling” that the company doesn’t go bust before I get my next paycheck…)

yes in truth there is a lot of gambling in life. yes there is a lot of gambling in this game. I think you are the one who is trying to narrow the scope of the term gambling, gambling is

“Gambling is the wagering of money or something of material value (referred to as “the stakes”) on an event with an uncertain outcome with the primary intent of winning additional money and/or material goods. Typically, the outcome of the wager is evident within a short period."

so yes the TP is gambling, especially when you are buying 1000 of something hoping it will go up so that you can sell it.
yes rng isnt gambling, any more than a roulette wheel is gambling, but as soon as you apply a roulette wheel to decide whether you profit or not, you are gambling
the mystic forge is definately gambling, at least all the recipes that dont have a direct formula.

Diminishing returns? not sure if thats gambling, but 3/4 aint bad.

point is GW2 has a wealth of gambling, but hey if im gonna gamble, id like it to be flashier, give me some people to blow on my dice, and a fancy parlour, with a spinning wheel that slows down (also showing me clearly what my odds are)
Or let me be the warrior who challenges people to duels putting his skills up on the line to increase his wealth.

thats a lot more as much if not more inline with a game thats supposed to be an adventure than watching/creating spreadsheets of items and value exchanges.

See, what people want from the economy here makes sense, they want items of high value, reasons to obtain large amounts of wealth, regular people to have to constantly trade and consume things so that money is flowing.

this is all good for a well structured society, its really bad for something that is supposed to simulate adventure, if the best way to do everything of import is to do the opposite of adventuring.

Massively are describing the supply and demand balance in the GW2 economy as, “an epic trainwreck” – whilst harsh, I tend to agree. I think that most market activity is speculation/manipulation.
http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/01/18/the-daily-grind-whats-the-absolute-worst-mmo-economy/

Svarty.8019:

Massively are describing the supply and demand balance in the GW2 economy as, “an epic trainwreck” – whilst harsh, I tend to agree. I think that most market activity is speculation/manipulation.
http://massively.joystiq.com/2013/01/18/the-daily-grind-whats-the-absolute-worst-mmo-economy/

It’s a short opinion piece from one of their columnists who doesn’t even provide a further explanation of what she means by her statement. Skimming the comments, it seems that her main complaint stems from the lack of demand for items she’s created while leveling crafting skills (specifically cooking, where she is unable to even vendor some of those items and therefore faces a glut of supply on the market when she tries to sell there).

IMO, her complaint may be valid, but she really hasn’t made a case to back up such a sweeping statement.

John Smith.4610:

leman.7682:

John Smith.4610:

Lets not turn this thread into a discussion of one specific exploit.

I have to say, however, that you have a perfect name for an economist.

Coming from an economist.

Thanks! It’s real

I always wanted to ask you this. Too funny!

John Smith.4610:

… Do players who spend more time in game have more wealth because they play more, or are they more efficient because they’re really good at the game or both.

I think we can certainly say that! 500- /age time I didn’t knew how to make money but farming raw materials. Now I cansay that I’m not only good at doing some farms, but that I won’t do some farming methods because they yield not as much as others.

There is as much gambling in GW2 as there is in any stand-alone, coin-operated, arcade console; with the purchase price being valued against indefinite access to revives. Using that metaphor the only gambling is nudging towards TILT.

The economy of GW2 is no more complex than a pinball game with all the holes smaller than the ball and access to multiball.

Psientist.6437:

There is as much gambling in GW2 as there is in any stand-alone, coin-operated, arcade console; with the purchase price being valued against indefinite access to revives. Using that metaphor the only gambling is nudging towards TILT.

The economy of GW2 is no more complex than a pinball game with all the holes smaller than the ball and access to multiball.

I understand what you are saying and respectfully disagree.

Novalight.7568:

partyly snipped – post too long*

Well well, I’m complaining about people that are smarter and I believe commie propaganda. In McCarthy’s time I’d get prosecuted I guess.
Oh and since having money=smart it seems, or I see that being implied in your post…lots of world scientists are then dumb as a rock or what?

I would be prosecuted too, but that doesn’t mean you have to be even more stupid than McCarthy. Neither extreme right nor extreme left are working solutions. Both are proven to be disastrous.

3) You kinda underestimate people. Don’t know how to use TP? What’s a price, hurr, press random buttons on TP. But if they in general pay higher prices it’s ok eh? Yes, my stance is, flipping and price manipulations are lowering the wealth of players. Due to price fluctuations that occur anyways due to supply/demand there might be a time when you pay less that you would otherwise but in general you pay more (since it’s very hard to understand I’ll say it again: their increase of money from simply flipping a thing=other peoples decrease in money ).

Money isn’t the only important thing. A “flipper” invests his time and gets paid for that.
1/ seller sells fast
2/ buyer buys fast
3/ flipper earns money.
Time equals money, remember. Everyone wins.

5) Every single flip needs to cover 1 more time the expenses (listing fee, tax) + margin of the flipper. So that is an automatic price increase of the flipper (if all goes well and the price doesn’t plummet for somekind of reason).

And that’s the second thing a flipper invests. Risk.
1/ buyer doesn’t have a risk cause he can buy lowest
2/ seller doesn’t risk anything since he sells to highest
3/ flipper takes all the risk for both transactions and earns money through that.
Both seller and buyer don’t want to take a risk by putting up an offer, and pay that lack of risk in cash. Everyone wins (except the flipper if his trades don’t go through)

The only person who can lose money and time is the flipper. For this time and risk investment, both buyer and seller give him a bit of coin.

As a buyer/seller you always have the choice to put up your own offers. By doing so, you always circumvent the flippers, but at the added cost of time and risk. Are you willing to invest both?