Rampant speculation on the TP?
To be clear, I’m not talking about profit-seeking. (Farming mats and selling them, for example.) That is a normal, healthy activity which adds real value to a game’s economy.
But that is an AWFUL way to make a profit. Have you tried T6 mat farming? It’s literally 8th circle of hell Bolgia 4 punishment. I would not wish it upon anyone. Not even the Chinese.
Derail: Actually, it has a very good risk/reward profile, especially if you farming the right stuff and selling it at the right time.
A couple comments:
1. Decreasing the number of entries necessarily means that there will be fewer bids and asks for every item. This will slow the narrowing of the spread.
That implies that the majority of bids and asks are from a minority of players. I disagree with that notion.
Actually I don’t think that’s what it implies at all – I think it implies that it’s typical for players to have more than the arbitrary cap you tossed out of bids and asks out at one time.
I have had a lot of items up for sale at one time, mostly because I put things up and let them sit until the price comes back around to what I think it’s worth. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to find a threshold where the typical player will rarely bump up against it, but the higher you set the threshold, the less effect it has.
Also I’d have to be a lot more careful about my pricing, so it would probably slow down my posting as I got closer to my cap. I’d hate to lose my listing fee because I had to pull something down to free up a spot. I guess that would affect supply, but then again it might incentivize more players to price things to sell instead of doing like I do and letting things sit, so the spread may narrow faster.
I never really can tell what the total end effect will be with economics. Too much human behavior involved and there’s no telling if it will be entirely rational. I do know that the very limited auction slots in the D3 auction house didn’t seem to do much good. With all the other economic problems that game had though, it’s hard to draw any conclusions from that.
Don’t ever think you know what’s right for the other person.
He might start thinking he knows what’s right for you.
—Paul Williams
He might start thinking he knows what’s right for you.
—Paul Williams
99.99% of the loot in D3 is junk. So the limited auction slots wont’ be a problem.
It’ll be much more cumbersome if TP is limited in GW2.
Unlimited auction slots allow very high volume markets (like mithril and wood) to function at all. Each precursor from the forge requires tens of thousands of each – how do you expect anyone to craft those with a quantity cap.
Looking at that particular market, limiting buy and sell volumes would drive the price of precursors up. Is that really what you want?
Much of the items people are pointing out are the luxury high end items. Usually these items are rare and inbetween. Assuming each day there are 3 new players deciding that they want it and the item only drops once for a person who didn’t want it every 3 days, it’ll definitely drive the price up as this is a demand>supply type item. Thus if the items in mind are the luxury ones, I doubt limiting order entries would help.
Simply look at Genesis & Crystal Guardian, which used to cost a bomb and now with more supply, the price has already dropped to an easily affordable range which you can farm up in a day. People could set it at a high price, but the champ farm train which is ongoing would only continously add in supply at a rate which is hard for manipulators to control
Whether speculation and flipping are the same thing or not comes down to how you want to define speculation. I would argue that speculation and flipping are the same thing in the same way as cats and quadrupeds are the same thing. Flipping is just short term speculation. The flipper speculates when he puts in his bid that firstly that it will be filled and secondly that his sale price wil be filled. That makes it speculation in my books, the closest real world comparison I can think of is antique trading, where you buy something to put it up at auction. If you don’t agree with my definition, that’s cool, I can see good counter arguments to my position, but from my point of view this is semantics (I haven’t studied economics).
I do feel it is a logical fallacy to say that because some forms of speculation are bad that all forms of it are bad. In fact, for those who like to trade straight away flippers are good because they will drive the sell-now price up and the buy-now price down.
For my part the only people on the TP that I have a problem with are those who try to manipulate prices, but I have only heard anecdotal evidence for the existence of these people.
Looking at that particular market, limiting buy and sell volumes would drive the price of precursors up. Is that really what you want?
Even if you’re not after a legendary, it drives the price of ascended mats up too. Everybody loses.
Nalhadia – Kaineng
Flipping is a good thing for the economy. It takes 2x the gold out of circulation (15% when sold to the flipper, 15% again when sold by the flipper). It also helps that item reach a good price equilibrium.
Longer term speculation tends to be a bit more risky, but again it’ll take 2x the gold out of circulation. Longer term speculation is betting that an item while currently worth X will be worth Y later due to supply and demand changes. If it’s something that can be obtained easily then the price will quickly fall back down even if the buyer purchases a large amount at once. If it’s not, it’ll reach a point where people aren’t willing to buy it at that price and fall back down. It can work as a sort of re-evaluation of the price of items.
I see it as a very good thing overall. It just sucks if you were saving to get something and weren’t able to get together enough gold before the supply/demand changed etc.
Tarnished Coast
Salvage 4 Profit + MF Guide – http://tinyurl.com/l8ff6pa
Salvage 4 Profit + MF Guide – http://tinyurl.com/l8ff6pa
Flipping is good for the economy of flippers.
Most of the gold they remove from the game ends up in their pockets inflating the gold value when it comes to any demanded items more than any possible general inflation..
Also helps Gold seller to proliferate.
But if we just look at general inflation its ok…..
Flipping is totally out of control and consequence of a lazy and uneffective way to fight the inflation since people with thousands gold are pushing prices on any demanded item…
The result is you can get exotic stuff cheap while having to give 644 gold for an ascended armor, 700+ gold for a dusk, 2000% more gold for a rune that was cheap few days ago and so on….
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
Flipping is good for the economy of flippers.
Most of the gold they remove from the game ends up in their pockets inflating the gold value when it comes to any demanded items more than any possible general inflation..
Also helps Gold seller to proliferate.
But if we just look at general inflation its ok…..
Flipping is totally out of control and consequence of a lazy and uneffective way to fight the inflation since people with thousands gold are pushing prices on any demanded item…
The result is you can get exotic stuff cheap while having to give 644 gold for an ascended armor, 700+ gold for a dusk, 2000% more gold for a rune that was cheap few days ago and so on….
Per your own statement, flipper’s actions cause a result that makes exotic level items cheap? Isn’t that good for the average player? The rampant inflation is in the precursors, legendaries or an undervalued commodity. Do you get angry that a Maybach, Lambo or Ferrari is well out of the reach of the average person? The technologies that high end cars have spent billions of R&D dollars/euros/yen/juan or whatever currency developing have made it down into the lowest tier of car. Your car is safer because of that research that catered to millionaires. Would you wish that reversed? Just let the ultra rich have the tech? I strongly doubt you want air bags, ABS, traction control, crumple zones and other specs to be nerfed on your car?
If exotics are truly cheaper, than flippers have done a lot of good for the normal user, it leaves them with more alternatives. As far as runes going up 2000%, please provide an example of such growth (if I missed the actual reference, I apologize).
@cassocaster it causes exactly what a mmorpg witha totally broken economy is like…
I won t even have to judge…..
But its full o mmorpg where suboptimal equip is easily reachable while optimal equipment is controlled by speculators AND gold sellers along iwth any luxury item.
GW2 balance:
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
A PvE player is supposed to avoid a 1-2 second 1 shotting aoe.
A WWW player is considered uncapable of avoiding a 5,75 second aoe for half his health.
As far as runes going up 2000%, please provide an example of such growth (if I missed the actual reference, I apologize).
I believe that this is in reference to the Superior Rune of Strength. It is the only rune that has had any dramatic increase in price over the past week according to spidy. At one point the low seemed to be around 21 silver for sell orders and then about 3 gold at the max. Currently, sell orders are around 1.9 gold.
(edited by brittitude.1983)
Flipping is good for the economy of flippers.
I don’t know what this means.
Most of the gold they remove from the game ends up in their pockets inflating the gold value when it comes to any demanded items more than any possible general inflation..
While I’m not completely sure about the meaningof this statement, I don’t believe it is accurate.
Gold removed from the game is removed from the game. If gold is in an account’s wallet, the gold is still in the game. The gold removed is the listing fee and sell fee on the price of the item. Ex. If an item sells for 1 gold, then 15 silver is removed from the game.
Every transaction that a flipper makes removes gold from the game. When they purchase an item, gold is removed and when they resell that item, gold is removed. So, for every 1 item on the market, without a flipper, the gold removed happens once. With a flipper it happens twice.
Ex. Rune of Nothing has one sell order of 1 g. A flipper posts a buy order of 50 silver. A seller fills the buy order removing 7.5 silver. The flipper relists the item for 99 silver and it sells, removing another 14.85 silver. If only the original sell order is bought, it would remove 15 silver. The flipper removed an extra 7.35 silver from the game and has allowed prices to remain low. The person selling at 50 silver was happy to sell the rune, the person that bought the rune at 99 was happy because they saved 1 silver. The flipper is happy because they made 34.15 silver.
This is a very simplistic example. In the majority of cases, there are multiple flippers, bringing the sell and buy orders closer and closer together; eventually, the market for the Rune of Nothing becomes unflippable because the margins are too close to make a profit.
Also helps Gold seller to proliferate.
But if we just look at general inflation its ok…..
I’m unclear about these statements.
Flipping is totally out of control and consequence of a lazy and uneffective way to fight the inflation since people with thousands gold are pushing prices on any demanded item…
Inflation is determined by a general price index, which is generally a value over time of specific goods that are used by the majority of consumers on a daily basis. In order to accurately calculate inflation, one needs to decide on a grouping of products that are generally in demand and calculate the change in price over a period of time. This would exclude luxury items or outliers that the majority of people are not purchasing daily, like precursors.
I do not believe that players have done this so there isn’t currently a good estimation of what the inflation is within the GW2 economy. I would guess it has been done internally.
The result is you can get exotic stuff cheap while having to give 644 gold for an ascended armor, 700+ gold for a dusk, 2000% more gold for a rune that was cheap few days ago and so on….
Changes in supply and demand do not accurately represent inflation, only price equilibrium. Ascended armor is actually very expensive to craft and the prices on the trading post may be high, but it isn’t due to inflation. Demand is currently higher than supply. Since there is a time factor involved in crafting ascended armor, it increases demand over supply causing a short-term investment opportunity. Once demand is filled and supply increases, the prices will reach a new equilibrium price. This same situation happened with ascended weapons.
As far as runes going up 2000%, please provide an example of such growth (if I missed the actual reference, I apologize).
I believe that this is in reference to the Superior Rune of Strength. It is the only rune that has had any dramatic increase in price over the past week according to spidy. At one point the low seemed to be around 21 silver for sell orders and then about 3 gold at the max. Currently, sell orders are around 1.9 gold.
Thank you….
Inflation is determined by a general price index, which is generally a value over time of specific goods that are used by the majority of consumers on a daily basis. In order to accurately calculate inflation, one needs to decide on a grouping of products that are generally in demand and calculate the change in price over a period of time. This would exclude luxury items or outliers that the majority of people are not purchasing daily, like precursors.
I do not believe that players have done this so there isn’t currently a good estimation of what the inflation is within the GW2 economy. I would guess it has been done internally.
Would be nice to see a CPI (Consumer Price Index) though, doesnt matter if from a player or a dev.
I might look into it.
Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.
(edited by Wanze.8410)
Inflation is determined by a general price index, which is generally a value over time of specific goods that are used by the majority of consumers on a daily basis. In order to accurately calculate inflation, one needs to decide on a grouping of products that are generally in demand and calculate the change in price over a period of time. This would exclude luxury items or outliers that the majority of people are not purchasing daily, like precursors.
I do not believe that players have done this so there isn’t currently a good estimation of what the inflation is within the GW2 economy. I would guess it has been done internally.
Would be nice to see a CPI (Consumer Price Index) though, doesnt matter if from a player or a dev.
I might look into it.
I agree. Of course, depending on what items are included, it is easy to manipulate it, so transparency is important with what is included and how it was derived.
If you come up with something, I would be interested in your findings.
Flipping is good for the economy of flippers.
Most of the gold they remove from the game ends up in their pockets inflating the gold value when it comes to any demanded items more than any possible general inflation..
Also helps Gold seller to proliferate.
But if we just look at general inflation its ok…..
Flipping is totally out of control and consequence of a lazy and uneffective way to fight the inflation since people with thousands gold are pushing prices on any demanded item…
The result is you can get exotic stuff cheap while having to give 644 gold for an ascended armor, 700+ gold for a dusk, 2000% more gold for a rune that was cheap few days ago and so on….
Inflation occurs when more new currency is added into the game. Flippers remove currency. They cause deflation, not inflation.
People that do things like farm dungeons add new currency into the game. They are the ones that cause inflation.
Tarnished Coast
Salvage 4 Profit + MF Guide – http://tinyurl.com/l8ff6pa
Salvage 4 Profit + MF Guide – http://tinyurl.com/l8ff6pa
Because this game relies waaaaay too much on crafting and assembling gear than on finding it in the game world.
It’s much less of a problem in games where the best gear is at the end of a hard dungeon or boss instead of being cobbled together from rare junk that fell out of a trash mob.
What?!
Just curious. Are you playing the same game as me?
Yeah, flippers actually benefit the game’s economy as a whole because by virtue of increasing the number of transactions being made through the TP, they remove gold from the economy via the TP taxes, thus playing a major role in keeping inflation under control.
Of course, as part of this process, good TP players can still amass considerable amounts of personal wealth (tens of thousands of gold is not out of the realms of impossibility for someone who’s been doing it for months now). Whether or not such concentration of wealth in the hands of a few is a good thing for the game is a whole other matter of debate.
However, I do have confidence that if these TP barons did try to seize control of some sector of the economy for their own ends, to the detriment of the wider player base, ANet would step in. This isn’t EVE Online, where such economic tactics are welcomed and even praised; I think if it became obvious to GW2 players that someone, or even a cartel of traders, was managing to control portions of the market, it would damage player trust in the TP, which is vital for it to work.