### are globs of ecto going to tank?

Yes, with the guaranteed rares from Orr temple events, globs are going to drop by a lot, if I had to guess I’d say back to 25s or less. I think that’s a good thing.

Yeah I think it’s a good thing too, I’m just hoping to make sure I sell them if they do. Worse that can happen imo is I just buy them all back up if they don’t change by much. If they get more expensive oh well, if they get less expensive I made a little profit.

globs are now used as a currency for ascended earrings … don’t think they will drop too much.

Yes, you can buy one earring every… 40 days. Yay. Oh, and you can also do guild missions instead of paying with globs.

Increase in Supply does not equal decrease in price. So long as the Demand for Ectos increase faster than the Supply, prices will continue to rise.

yes but if supply increases and demand stays the same then prices will drop. Why would the demand for ectos suddenly begin to rise up again?

I’m just wondering. Also one thing I didn’t take into account was Arena Net changed a lot of events like Frozen Maw to only drop one chest per character per day. This may even decrease the supply and make ectos even more expensive, but again only time ill tell.

You need stacks of Ectos for many things. Clovers, Legendaries, and Infusing Ascended gear to name a few. Ectos are one of the things that will always be in demand.

Even if there were a small price drop, the cheap Ectos would be gobbled up quickly. And if people are willing to buy Ectos at the current prices, what seller would offer theirs for a lower price?

However, I do hold onto the wish that I’m wrong, as I need to buy another 750 to 800 more.

It depends on how much the increased drop rate and loot qualification will affect precursor drop rates. If not or not much, prices will drop.

[NO] ~ Ponys Will Never Die

People seem to forget that you rarely get enough laurels for the earrings ,so that wont affect ecto price at all.

Seems I was spot on when i said ecto prices would plummet, a few days before patch

and judging by the amount of rares i saw in events, it will drop ALOT, on a diffrent note precursors have also dropped some.

Like someone said earlier, you can only get those chests once per day per character. I bet they’ll go down at first but then go back up to what they are now fairly quickly.

It’s tricky though. I’ve seen many people getting four rares from one chest. So who knows. Pretty dumb though. Those things definitely aren’t “rare” now.

there are enough chest events to keep players busy for a full day, so no I do think it will keep dropping.

The drop rate still seems abysmal…

During the last few days, I ran 5 Fractal runs, levels 10, 11, 12, 12 and 14. I got a whooping total of 1 rare. Yes. 5 runs, no mob skipping in maw, and 1 rare. In addition, I got a exotic which is account bound and wrong armor class for my character, also got 3 cores from the jade maw chests (between 6-20s each which is unimportant). So 6 hours of playtime netted me 1 ecto.

I don’t think they are gonna drop anytime soon.

I suspect they will eventually drop back down to about 15s based on the chest changes.

You can do every world boss in about 3 hours if you hit all the timers. There are 10 world bosses give or take a few. Each chest drops a minimum of 1 rare, with 2-3 rares being the average. After 3 hours last night I walked away with 25 rares and 2 exotics. That’s with just doing boss events on 1 character. I could also park my lvl 80 alts at the faster respawning events and get even more.

Before today I would be lucky to get 1 rare from the same sequence… I think it is safe to say ectos are doing to plummet HARD.

Yes they should drop like a stone with all the rares from world events, but I’m on an epic run of 0 ectos from master salvage kits atm. I hate RNG.

Yes they should drop like a stone with all the rares from world events, but I’m on an epic run of 0 ectos from master salvage kits atm. I hate RNG.

I’m not sure it’s RNG… I have a run of 1 ecto from 25 uses of BLK’s… that has a chance of:

0.000003% chance of happening… seems unlikely it’s due to RNG. I think they may have nerfed ecto drop rates to compensate for the increased drops. So ecto prices might not plummet as much as I originally thought.

Yes they should drop like a stone with all the rares from world events, but I’m on an epic run of 0 ectos from master salvage kits atm. I hate RNG.

I’m not sure it’s RNG… I have a run of 1 ecto from 25 uses of BLK’s… that has a chance of:

0.000003% chance of happening… seems unlikely it’s due to RNG. I think they may have nerfed ecto drop rates to compensate for the increased drops. So ecto prices might not plummet as much as I originally thought.

Lets start this train early with this patch. We did not nerf ecto rates of any kind, we’ve never nerfed ecto rates, if we change ecto rates, it will be in the patch notes I promise you.

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

I’m not sure it’s RNG… I have a run of 1 ecto from 25 uses of BLK’s… that has a chance of:

0.000003% chance of happening… seems unlikely it’s due to RNG. I think they may have nerfed ecto drop rates to compensate for the increased drops. So ecto prices might not plummet as much as I originally thought.

Lets start this train early with this patch. We did not nerf ecto rates of any kind, we’ve never nerfed ecto rates, if we change ecto rates, it will be in the patch notes I promise you.

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

Well, I’d like to point out that while salvages are independent events, you still can calculate what the probability of getting 1 ectos in 25 salvages is, and I guess it’s around that number (too lazy to actually calculate myself).

Not even close.

Not even close.

Well, even if his math is off, my point is each salvage being statistically independent event really has no bearing on the calculations. If, after 24 salvages, you were to calculate the probability in the 25th salvage, yes it must be calculated independently. But when you look at 25 salvages as a whole, then independence doesn’t matter.

So if salvaged 24 things, the 25th salvage will have a 0.3% (or whatever) chance of getting an ecto.

But if I’m about to salvage 25 things, I will have a pretty low chance of getting only one ecto from all 25 things.

Recognizing Ursan’s numbers are made up and we have to effectively use X% as we don’t know the exact numbers, his logic is solid. If we throw 25 pennies in the air the odds are very low that one or fewer turn out to be tails, even though with individual toss there’s a 50% chance that it will not be tails.

However, when you consider the number of people tossing 25 pennies is very high, the odds that this bad luck will happen to one (or more likely many) is quite high.

I’m not sure it’s RNG… I have a run of 1 ecto from 25 uses of BLK’s… that has a chance of:

Lets start this train early with this patch. We did not nerf ecto rates of any kind, we’ve never nerfed ecto rates, if we change ecto rates, it will be in the patch notes I promise you.

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

Well, I’d like to point out that while salvages are independent events, you still can calculate what the probability of getting 1 ectos in 25 salvages is, and I guess it’s around that number (too lazy to actually calculate myself).

When calculating independent events you have to take into account all of the possible outcomes. Did you get your one ecto on the first try? The last? The eighth? Each has a probability. And thats only the chance for one ecto. How about two ectos? Did you get them on the 1st&7th? Or the 3rd&21st? Etc. it can get complex.

Suffice it to say that the odds of not getting at least one in 25 are probably rather small (I don’t know the odds or any hidden variables).

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

Respectfully, to be fair, the patch notes for Nov. didn’t announce that there would be perma dr for half of us either. Can you be sure that these guys aren’t experiencing an unintentional ecto dr of some type? They’re reporting statistical changes after a major patch, please consider not lightly dismissing it as false perceptions.

Respectfully, to be fair, the patch notes for Nov. didn’t announce that there would be perma dr for half of us either. Can you be sure that these guys aren’t experiencing an unintentional ecto dr of some type? They’re reporting statistical changes after a major patch, please consider not lightly dismissing it as false perceptions.

Unless multiple people have thousands of data points taken meticulously and without bias (similar to the loot bug thread) then it correctly should be dismissed as false perceptions.

There’s always a possibility that Anet is wrong, but you better have the evidence to support it.

Yes, I can be sure since there are no DR systems that touch salvaging.

I hope they’ll drop, I could buy more and market manipulators would get burned, double win.

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

He didn’t actually say what he was salvaging with black lion kits.

If he’s salvaging rares a black lion kit the rate is supposed to be 1.5/rare on average isn’t it?

Independent events doesn’t mean you can’t calculate the probability of only getting one in 25. E.g. with coin flips the probability of only getting 1 ‘heads’ or 1 tails is 7.5×10^-7. So his math is actually too generous as the the probability if his odds of an ecto per are >0.5. And he’s too generous by at least an order of magnitude.

For a mystic kit with a rare the probability of only getting one ecto (~90% chance?) on 25 trials is 2.25*10^-23.

Short summary: it sounds like he’s not telling the truth, or he’s used BLK on greens or something equally bizarre (or there is something seriously seriously broken).

From my own experiments, whenever I salvage rares, I ALWAYS get less ectos than rares used. I think the average would be about 7 or 8 ectos per salvaged lv80 rare.

So I don’t think the salvage rate is that high.

It’s amazing that people are so confused by probability. if you salvage a rare, there is a chance of 0 to 3 ectos. that’s true for each rare salvaged independently of each other. do it 25 times., and you have just as much chance of nothing each of those 25 salvages. he got unlucky, but statistically all is well.

(I have to know! In WvW, do Legendary NPCs drop Legendary loot?)

I’m not sure it’s RNG… I have a run of 1 ecto from 25 uses of BLK’s… that has a chance of:

PS. Your math is incorrect, salvages are independent statistical events.

Oh my epic run goes on way before the patch.

To the math people: You absolutely can not work out the probability of an event based of counted data. You CAN work out the mean event, and from the mean event you can work out standard deviation, and from there you can work out how unlikely a given event is in terms of sigma, or how many standard devastation outside the expected result the observed data is. We need a LOT of data though.

To work out the probability of something you need to know the number of events and the trend towards any given event. We would need to know exactly what the chance of 0, 1, 2, or 3 globes is to do any meaningful theory craft. Without this exact data you are GUESSING the probability of something, you can never know it.

For example, if the odds were 50% zero, 0% one, 0% two, 50% three (and expected return of 1.5) the standard deviation is much different then if the chance is 0% zone, 50% one, 50% two, 0% three.

That said, just for fun, let’s say it’s an even distribution; 25% zero, 25% one, 25% two, 25% three. This means he got an event that was 25% likely 25 times in a row. That’s between 3 to 4 sigma, making it a rather common event, statistically. It should happen every half a million times or so. You don’t even START to consider something proof your probability is wrong until you are regularly seeing sigma 5 events.

(edited by Lexie.5894)

Yes, I can be sure since there are no DR systems that touch salvaging.

Is there a possibility that there may be a bug in how the percentage chance from the kits is applied or how the rolls are made?

Unless multiple people have thousands of data points taken meticulously and without bias (similar to the loot bug thread) then it correctly should be dismissed as false perceptions.

There’s always a possibility that Anet is wrong, but you better have the evidence to support it.

Not an unsubstantial amount of players(revenue) were lost over the dr/kill credit bug. I know I went from spending $50 a month on gems to $0/month, because of how discouraging it was, and 90% of my guild stopped logging on.

I understand they have limited resources and can’t afford to chase imaginary bugs, but I also think they risk losing consumer faith (especially in light of the recent dismissal and delayed discovery of the dr/kill credit bug).

Ultimately, they have to decide if it was worth it to wait so long before looking into it. Or is it better to consider that there may be an issue. In light of the recent dr/kill count bug I would rather see a response that showed a change in attitude toward player perceived issues. Taking a more precautionary, proactive stance towards possible bugs could reduce the time it takes to correct them.

Creating a (edit)data collection(edit) thread similar to the perma dr/kill credit thread sooner rather than later, where people could begin accumulating data, would go a long way in reassuring the consumer base that they are taking perceived issues more seriously and help repair any loss of faith due to the delayed response to the previous issue.

(edited by Olfinbedwere.5049)

Not an unsubstantial amount of players(revenue) were lost over the dr/kill credit bug. I know I went from spending $50 a month on gems to $0/month, because of how discouraging it was, and 90% of my guild stopped logging on.

I understand they have limited resources and can’t afford to chase imaginary bugs, but I also think they risk losing consumer faith (especially in light of the recent dismissal and delayed discovery of the dr/kill credit bug).

Ultimately, they have to decide if it was worth it to wait so long before looking into it. Or is it better to consider that there may be an issue. In light of the recent dr/kill count bug I would rather see a response that showed a change in attitude toward player perceived issues. Taking a more precautionary, proactive stance towards possible bugs could reduce the time it takes to correct them.

Creating a thread similar to the perma dr/kill credit thread sooner rather than later, where people could begin accumulating data, would go a long way in reassuring the consumer base that they are taking perceived issues more seriously and help repair any loss of faith due to the delayed response to the previous issue.

And this is exactly the point of my post.

If players provide that data, that’s great. The DR/Loot thread had hundreds and thousand of data points gathered. It’s good.

But look at the threads that pop up weekly of players who salvage/loot 10 things and accuse a nerf. These things are rightly dismissed.

What you want is the binomial probability, which fits if:

-The experiment involves repeated trials.

-Each trial has only two possible outcomes – a success or a failure.

-The probability that a particular outcome will occur on any given trial is constant.

-All of the trials in the experiment are independent.

If we define a success as *any* salvage producing an ecto we can figure out how likely it is to “fail” any 24 out of 25 salvages (in any order). Looking at the data in the Ecto salvage research thread

we see that the research has produced a chance of success (as I have defined above) of about 75% for the BLSK. Using this data we can ask what is the probability of getting 1 success out of 25 trials?

I get about 6.7 × 10^ – **14**

0.00000003 or whatever % was too generous.

Tuned 7500 rewards from different dungeons I farmed in about a month and turn them into rare armor parts (30rewards each). On 250 parts salvaged I gathered 225 ecto that i sold on TP for 35silver each before price fall like rocks. made almost 90g dfrom these. Gonna now farm events and more dungeons to go on salvaging and selling to make profits before people realise its overprice ectoplasms now :p.

Making 50ecto per day is not a big deal.

Btw who would buy them if only for crafting legendary but who has precursors atm ?

Who would buy them to craft ascended backpack with no more fotm rewarding any new ascended armor parts?

Who would buy new ascended pieces with ecto and laurels when you can get with guild rewards???

Overall what you want people gather ecto for atm it will just sink hard in price haha ;p

Back to farm cu later ^^

PS I just hope the TP market manipulators will keep sinking their gold to try to artificially maintain enough high price per ecto to allow me to make plenty gold. 32s/ecto (-6s/ecto in 24h), well i doubt it will last forever though unfortunately, gonna make as much profit as i can before it fall more !

(edited by Titan.3472)

What you want is the binomial probability, which fits if:

-The experiment involves repeated trials.

-Each trial has only two possible outcomes – a success or a failure.

-The probability that a particular outcome will occur on any given trial is constant.

-All of the trials in the experiment are independent.If we define a success as

anysalvage producing an ecto we can figure out how likely it is to “fail” any 24 out of 25 salvages (in any order). Looking at the data in the Ecto salvage research threadwe see that the research has produced a chance of success (as I have defined above) of about 75% for the BLSK. Using this data we can ask what is the probability of getting 1 success out of 25 trials?

I get about 6.7 × 10^ –

140.00000003 or whatever % was too generous.

The chance of success of a BLSK is 50%, not 75%. Within that 50% success rate there is a chance to receive between 1 and 3 ectos. While this changes the amount of ectos you get on average, you are still at a 50% chance to get **nothing** for each individual use. This is explicitly stated on the BLSK tooltip itself.

What you want is the binomial probability, which fits if:

-The experiment involves repeated trials.

-Each trial has only two possible outcomes – a success or a failure.

-The probability that a particular outcome will occur on any given trial is constant.

-All of the trials in the experiment are independent.If we define a success as

anysalvage producing an ecto we can figure out how likely it is to “fail” any 24 out of 25 salvages (in any order). Looking at the data in the Ecto salvage research threadwe see that the research has produced a chance of success (as I have defined above) of about 75% for the BLSK. Using this data we can ask what is the probability of getting 1 success out of 25 trials?

I get about 6.7 × 10^ –

140.00000003 or whatever % was too generous.

The chance of success of a BLSK is 50%, not 75%. Within that 50% success rate there is a chance to receive between 1 and 3 ectos. While this changes the amount of ectos you get on average, you are still at a 50% chance to get

nothingfor each individual use. This is explicitly stated on the BLSK tooltip itself.

Read how I defined a success, click on the salvage study that I linked, click the results tab and let me know what you find. I’m using the best data that I could find, which indicates that the probability is closer to 75%. If you have better data, please provide.

I think the price will go up on ecto’s limited to one event per character even if that one event has a high chance of a rare. Before the patch on a weekend day I could get 20+ rares just from popping in from time to time and doing MAW. I often got 1 rare per event anyway(just this last Saturday I got 2 Exotic GS as well) . Did it on my character after the patch, I got 1 rare and I am done for the day on that character (5 characters-5 rares). Thats a huge drop in the amount of rares/ectos as many others were just like me logging in to the event.

Why else would Anet change it….do you actually think that they want more rares/gold injected into the market or they are nerfing gold? I am guessing the net outcome will be prices go up.

I also cracked 10 exotics and got zip when it came to ecto’s. This has never happened and it’s been more like 75% always got one, could just be RNG hating me but bugs happen.

I always think it’s hilarious when a dev/mod comes out and makes such a fallacious comment as to rule out with almost 100% certainty a bug could have been introduced with the patch….like their track record is perfect.

All I know is that every time i used up a BLK before this patch I ended up with 20-30 ectos. I’ve probably used up 10-15 kits since launch and every time was the same. Patch hits and I get 10 ectos between a kit and a half. (luck improved very slightly after my really bad run).

This seems to be to be very out of the ordinary. I’ve had very consistent average results and as a result I kept buying kits. Now i’m certainly not going to buy any more until this gets worked out. If it was just crappy luck then it’s crappy luck to you guys at Anet that you won’t be getting any more of my money. I’ll stick to cheap kits I can buy ingame if I wanted crap luck.

I always think it’s hilarious when a dev/mod comes out and makes such a fallacious comment as to rule out with almost 100% certainty a bug could have been introduced with the patch….like their track record is perfect.

I think it’s hilarious when I’m looking at a million post patch salvage results and you tell me I’m wrong.

Salvaging seems fine to me, and its about time ectos become more common.

Shame the rest of the patch was bleh.

I always think it’s hilarious when a dev/mod comes out and makes such a fallacious comment as to rule out with almost 100% certainty a bug could have been introduced with the patch….like their track record is perfect.

I think it’s hilarious when I’m looking at a million post patch salvage results and you tell me I’m wrong.

Off topic: Just curious, about how long does it take the playerbase to make a million salvages? Minutes? Hours?

It changes pretty drastically relative to a couple of different factors (like time of day), but it doesn’t take long.

i love when a dev comes in with the cold hard facts and is like BOOM

I’d love it more if the developer shared those facts with us more regularly in a more intuitive medium than stalking the dev tracker (weekly economy short-blogs, anyone?).

I think it’s hilarious when I’m looking at a million post patch salvage results and you tell me I’m wrong.

Don’t worry John, he probably believes that Global Warming isn’t real either.

I have salvaged a lot of level 68+ exotics and never get more than 3 ectos per salvage. Unless I have been having consistent bad luck everyday, getting 0 ectos per salvage seems to be a lot more common than getting 3 ectos per salvage.

So even though the range is 0 to 3 ectos per salvage, there is a higher chance of getting 0 than there is to get 3 ectos per salvage. Feel free to correct me if I am wrong, John. Thanks.

(edited by DarkSpirit.7046)

All I know is that every time i used up a BLK before this patch I ended up with 20-30 ectos. I’ve probably used up 10-15 kits since launch and every time was the same. Patch hits and I get 10 ectos between a kit and a half. (luck improved very slightly after my really bad run).

This seems to be to be very out of the ordinary. I’ve had very consistent average results and as a result I kept buying kits. Now i’m certainly not going to buy any more until this gets worked out. If it was just crappy luck then it’s crappy luck to you guys at Anet that you won’t be getting any more of my money. I’ll stick to cheap kits I can buy ingame if I wanted crap luck.

I’m sorry for your bad luck. Today I salvaged 6 rares and got 10 ectos… it would seem I stole it.

When calculating independent events you have to take into account all of the possible outcomes. Did you get your one ecto on the first try? The last? The eighth? Each has a probability.

Well, there are a couple different ways to look at this (and it’s hard to tell which one Mr. Smith is referring to, since he drops into troll mode when the conversation veers towards private information only he has).

The first is as you mention, if you have a set experiment of 25 salvages, you have to take into account all the permutations, getting it on the first try, the fifth, etc. From a statistical standpoint trying to demonstrate rare events you’d want to give the probability of that outcome **or worse** (since over a large enough sample size the odds of any particular outcome become vanishingly small). In the case of one ecto from 25 salvages, the permutations are pretty simple, so you get a probability of:

25*P1*P0^24 + P0^25

Where P0 is the chance of getting 0 ectos from a salvage, and P1 is the chance of getting exactly one ecto. This is going to be some small number for whatever value P1 and P0 actually are.

The problem with these observations is that they are not closed experiments. They are anecdotes pulled out of a longer series of salvages, and over time seeing a rare run like this can go from being improbable to being very probable indeeed. To cite a well known example, the odds are stacked against you when flipping a coin 7 times of it coming up all heads or tails every time (<1%), but if you flip a coin 100 times, it becomes probable that you’ll see a run like that somewhere in the data (~52%).

So is a run like 1 ecto from 25 salvages particularly bad? Sure – it’s more than a million to one against in a vacuum. Over the course of thousands of players salvaging millions of rares? It’s not unlikely at all to see a run like that.

(edited by Ensign.2189)

All I know is that every time i used up a BLK before this patch I ended up with 20-30 ectos. I’ve probably used up 10-15 kits since launch and every time was the same. Patch hits and I get 10 ectos between a kit and a half. (luck improved very slightly after my really bad run).

This seems to be to be very out of the ordinary. I’ve had very consistent average results and as a result I kept buying kits. Now i’m certainly not going to buy any more until this gets worked out. If it was just crappy luck then it’s crappy luck to you guys at Anet that you won’t be getting any more of my money. I’ll stick to cheap kits I can buy ingame if I wanted crap luck.

Really? Are you going to throw your dummy on the floor too and throw a crying fit? Jesus “I am getting bad luck in game, oh must be Anets fault so I’ll never give them money again”. Your luck has nothing to do with Anet.

Anyway, I salaved 2 rares today and got 5 ecto’s using the Black Lion Salvage Kit so I’d say the chance of ecto’s seems fine. In fact, It’s more common for me to get ecto’s then it is not to. I do Fotm most of the time I’m online which normally gives me around 5 rares which normally lands me with around 6-7 ecto’s. I have not done fotm since the patch, but as I said I got 5 ecto’s from 2 rares today so it seems perfectly fine to me. I also found an exotic but decided to sell it instead of salvage, but I have been wondering as I have a exotic from fotm, which is account bound so I can’t sell it, does exotics have a higher chance of returning ecto’s when salvaged then rares?

(edited by EliteZ.1682)