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Posted by: Zefrost.3425

Zefrost.3425

So when Anet says something is very rare, they mean it’s very rare. Probably less than 1% drop rate if I was to guess. I don’t care that much that I didn’t get one, I’m just letting y’all know. Don’t spend money on keys expecting to hit the lottery if you can’t afford it.

No smart person who gets a permanent hairstyle contract is going to sell it for less than 1000G. It’s the same with black lion weapons. No sane person is going to buy a fused weapon for 7 tickets and sell it for 200G; same goes for other black lion weapons.

(edited by Zefrost.3425)

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

I’m guessing in the range of 1 in 1000 or worse. Like most extremely rare but tradeable items attainable from the BLCs it’s gold value will be no where near the average cost in keys to attain it.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Duke Nukem.6783

Duke Nukem.6783

i opened my first ever chest on the first day i started playing and got perma bank access scroll, iv opened about 150 chests since then and not gotten anything else in the perma category,

so yes very rare is accurate but i like that they say what they mean and dont cader to the sissies who want everything NOW.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

If it is inline with other permanent contract(bank, merchant, TP), you are severely over estimating the 1%.

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Posted by: Iretha.7625

Iretha.7625

People still buy keys??

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

The most recent data I have for BLC drop rates is old. 825 keys were used by three different posters (including Samuriai, of industrial precursor-production fame).

I don’t see a single permanent contract from any of those data sets.

So it wouldn’t be crazy to estimate the chances of getting any permanent contract at 1:1,000. (If that’s the true rate, then there’s a ~43.8% chance you could open 825 and not see any drop.)

And Behellagh is entirely correct: if you really want one, save up instead of playing the lotto. Given enough gems to convert to gold and put in a ~2,300g offer for the perma-stylist, you’d have less than 26% chance to get any sort of permanent contract (assuming the odds are even as high as 1:1,000).

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

The most recent data I have for BLC drop rates is old. 825 keys were used by three different posters (including Samuriai, of industrial precursor-production fame).

I don’t see a single permanent contract from any of those data sets.

So it wouldn’t be crazy to estimate the chances of getting any permanent contract at 1:1,000. (If that’s the true rate, then there’s a ~43.8% chance you could open 825 and not see any drop.)

And Behellagh is entirely correct: if you really want one, save up instead of playing the lotto. Given enough gems to convert to gold and put in a ~2,300g offer for the perma-stylist, you’d have less than 26% chance to get any sort of permanent contract (assuming the odds are even as high as 1:1,000).

True story. I used at least 1k keys since launch, never saw an exotic permanent drop. Not even an unopened mystery tonic, let alone a contract.

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Posted by: Saint.4165

Saint.4165

lol only 100 keys? cheapskate.

—Saint

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

The other Permanent Contracts are all at a 0.25% drop chance. Assuming the Hair Stylist is the same, that’s a 1/400 chance (THAT DOES NOT MEAN YOU WILL GET ONE WITHIN 400 TRIES).

I opened 15 Chests today and got a Trading Post on my 4th one. Yay for my second looted Trading Post…!

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Posted by: ProtoGunner.4953

ProtoGunner.4953

I just wonder why a really unimportant item like this hair style kit (WTF are we all 16 year old lipstick chicks) is one of the most expensive items in the game. I changed my hairs once or twice and cost me 250 gems each. Really guys, GET A GRIP!

‘would have/would’ve been’ —> correct
‘would of been’ —> wrong

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Posted by: rincewind.9528

rincewind.9528

I just wonder why a really unimportant item like this hair style kit (WTF are we all 16 year old lipstick chicks) is one of the most expensive items in the game. I changed my hairs once or twice and cost me 250 gems each. Really guys, GET A GRIP!

Well, I would love to be able to change my char hairstyles anytime without worry about real money. It’s pretty awesome.
An perma wardrobe charge thingie would be much more awesome… but of course it’s not happening anytime soon.
Different people, different tastes. I really enjoy dressing my chars. (Not my charrs, I don’t have any, the big cats are kinda ugly!!)

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Posted by: ProtoGunner.4953

ProtoGunner.4953

Sure, it’s convenient. I would buy a Permanent Hair-Style Kit if it was 1000 gems in store. But it seems they make a lot of more money if they put it in the RNG box. I think it’s good though that it’s at a certain cost – especially the total makeover since in my opinion the initial character you choose should be final. I dislike however that exclusive hair styles are behind this money gate instead of just let us choose them in the character creation process. But that’s all the disadvantages of a buy to play model…

‘would have/would’ve been’ —> correct
‘would of been’ —> wrong

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Posted by: Charming Rogue.8071

Charming Rogue.8071

I just wonder why a really unimportant item like this hair style kit (WTF are we all 16 year old lipstick chicks) is one of the most expensive items in the game. I changed my hairs once or twice and cost me 250 gems each. Really guys, GET A GRIP!

I think a lot of people just want the hair stylist cause they can sell it for 3k+ gold.

Desolation – EU – [KING] – Immortal Kingdom

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Posted by: Arrelaine.5692

Arrelaine.5692

I just wonder why a really unimportant item like this hair style kit (WTF are we all 16 year old lipstick chicks) is one of the most expensive items in the game. I changed my hairs once or twice and cost me 250 gems each. Really guys, GET A GRIP!

I think a lot of people just want the hair stylist cause they can sell it for 3k+ gold.

I just want to be able to change my hair like, daily. ;(

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Posted by: ozmaniandevil.6805

ozmaniandevil.6805

Personally I’d have a really hard time deciding if I would keep or sell the permanent hair stylist. I do love to change my character looks quite a bit, and have spent many gems on hair style makeovers and total makeovers. And I’m not 16, I’m 46! This is just one of the aspects of the game I really enjoy. Yet… 3500g was the last price I saw the permanent contract listed at. That’s a lot of gold!!

I have never seen this item, and I have bought quite a lot of keys, and farmed many as well, though I did not keep track so can’t say for sure how many. On this last go though I ended up with an endless mystery tonic, 3 full BL tickets and a dozen scraps, so I call that a pretty big win for $35 in keys.

Isle of Janthir – Knights of the Rose (KoR)

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Posted by: BeeSuit.5649

BeeSuit.5649

Before investing 150 bucks on BLC keys, I ran a quick search on google (and read a few posts in this forum) and the general consensus is no, it’s not worth it (at all). I just thought that it’d be fair to give other GW2 players an idea of what they’re getting into when they buy BLC keys (Or any items that gives you random items), based on my personal experience.
As of yesterday and for the next 2 weeks, the BLC has an incredible slim chance of rewarding the player with the “permanent hair stylist contract”, which players were willing to pay up to 2800 gold (as of 07/29/2014 9pm NYT, I just connected to the game now, 07/31/2014 1:30 am NYT and they’re going for a little over 3600 gold…). I knew how slim the chances were and when I invested 12300 gems on it, I was aware of the risks (Let’s be real, if the item was easy to get, it wouldn’t be worth 3600 gold, possibly even more). The problem is not the fact that I didn’t get the item, the problem is that 12300 gems later I was stuck with a bunch of crap that wasn’t even worth 30 gold (and I’m being optimistic).
I was stuck with a bunch of useless dyes, useless repeated minis, useless boosters, and some useless services (e.g.: Revive Orbs, Trading Post Express,…)
Not to be totally unfair, I got some stuff I consider somewhat useful:
- 15 tomes and 24 scrolls of knowledge. It’s an OK reward, considering I could get an equivalent amount of skills and levels playing EOTM (which is a lot more rewarding because in the end I made some gold, gathered some mats, made tons of badges of honor that can be used to buy some good items, and most importantly, had lots of fun)
- 3 Total Makeover Kits , 2 Self-Style Hair Kits, 26 Transmutation Charges, 4 Black Lion Salvage Kits, and 2 Backpack skins I didn’t have. I consider these the best rewards… And still, I would only buy some, not all, of these items if they were sold at a discounted price (350 gems for Total Makeover Kit = 35 gold; currently you can buy approximately 10 gold per 100 gems if you do it when the time’s right)
Now, I spent those gems trying my luck to get an item that I could hopefully sell for 2800 gold… and what does that mean to me? I invest 40 bucks a month on gems, equivalent to 4 months worth of gems. If I had changed my gems to gold, I could have Dusk right now (which’s basically the only item I’m missing to finally get my legendary). That’s 153.75 dollars… I could buy 3 new games or have paid for 10 months (or more) worth of subscription to another MMO. Hell, if I played WoW I could get 2 toons to level 90 by paying 120 bucks to Blizzard.
GW2 is by far the best MMO I’ve ever played and I still believe it was worth paying 40 bucks/month. The way I saw it, I was investing on development for new content, for continued support. I usually stayed away from random dyes and BLCs because I always thought they were a rip off and I was not wrong. The best dye out there, is worth less than 200 gold, which currently translates to 2000 gems… Trust me, you’ll have to invest a lot more than 2000 gems to get a decent dye (and I never paid more than 80 gold for a dye). Gems to me were used only to buy useful items: Bank slot and tab expansions, permanent gathering tools, passes (royal terrace, home portal), skins, even gold if I needed more mats to get ascended stuff…
I’m not mad or sad but I feel cheated and disappointed. I’m just letting someone else out there know that it’s not worth spending your money on BLC keys. Maybe a-net will read this and realize that this is not the right way to make money. The moment clients feel cheated is when they go away and a-net should be concerned about it. It’s not the amount of money or the fact I didn’t get the one item I wanted. It’s the fact that should I not feel amazing because I didn’t get that one rare item, I should feel like whatever I got, was worth what I paid for.
To me it was just a wakeup call that it’s time to go spend my money on some other game.

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

You did your research, knew the risks, and you went ahead anyway. I understand it’s hard not to feel disappointed and cheated, but if you did all that, I feel there’s really no justification for it. You went in with both eyes open.

I did something similar. I bought the Zephyrite Rescue Pack for the 15 BLKeys in it, just to try my luck. As expected, I didn’t get a Permanent Stylist, or even the Monkey Tonic, but I knew the risks going in and I’m not really upset that it didn’t pan out. I did get 6 Ticket Scraps which kind of made it worth it, as I now have enough to buy a gemstore weapon the next time a set is released if I really like it.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

@BeeSuit

12300 gems could have netted you around 1200g today. But instead you bought 145 keys (5, 25 sets @ 2100 each and 4, 5 sets at 450 each). You should have gotten around 5 to 6 BL tickets, counting scraps converted to tickets.

But if you were betting on the hair contract. Yeah, 145 chances isn’t close to what you need to even get a 50/50 chance. When they say rare, they mean rare. Rare as in Wonka Golden Ticket rare.

It’s well known that “rare” BLTC items that can be sold on the TP aren’t worth if you are “investing” with cash bought keys. As I pointed out at the top that you could have gotten around 1200g guaranteed from the exchange with that size cash buy in. Best skin available is 450g and costs 7 tickets.

And since every chest does contain items, some with cash shop or coin value, it’s not really gambling. If falls in the same category as vending machines at arcades that dispense capsules with toys in them. Or collectible card game booster packs with ultra rare foil cards.

Doesn’t matter how often it’s said. People will buy keys for the rush of just maybe getting something really useful.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

Permanent Contracts are a 1/400 drop. Even having 400 BLKeys is only a 63% chance of getting A permanent contract, not necessarily the hair.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

If you dont’ believe go through the list of XXX black lion chest open on youtube, and check how many permanent license drop, pretty much 0.

I dont’ want to put false accusation, but I always get the feeling some marketing person keep come up to forum posting inaccurate results so people will buy those RNG stuff. Well the accusation is probably false, since there are always ignorant players, but it does make me guessing it is possible.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

If you dont’ believe go through the list of XXX black lion chest open on youtube, and check how many permanent license drop, pretty much 0.

I dont’ want to put false accusation, but I always get the feeling some marketing person keep come up to forum posting inaccurate results so people will buy those RNG stuff. Well the accusation is probably false, since there are always ignorant players, but it does make me guessing it is possible.

The original hair contracts were only dropped during Wintersday, therefore all of the data gathered on permanent hair contracts were equivalent to 0%.

However, if you look at the drop tables for the other contracts, they’re all floating around 0.25% which is 1/400. I’m assuming it’s the same as the other contracts. If it’s not, it’s probably lower, not higher.

And to be completely honest, I know they drop. I looted a Black Lion Trader Contract without even knowing they were in the tables during the original release at Wintersday (double chance at the time, although I believe the rates were different back then).

I also looted another Black Lion Trader Contract on the day of the patch.

You can’t see my Personal Trader Express, but he’s in my inventory. If you want proof of them side by side, I can provide it. Either that or you can just say I shopped the image and bought it with real gold along with my original one.

Attachments:

(edited by Esplen.3940)

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Posted by: Svetli.4276

Svetli.4276

who keep green runes in their bank honestly o_o

“What you wish for may not be what she wishes for.” – Skull Knight

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

who keep green runes in their bank honestly o_o

I keep up to 3 so that when I get to 4 I can drop them in the Mystic Forge.

Looks like he’s doing the same.

Server: Devona’s Rest

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

who keep green runes in their bank honestly o_o

I keep up to 3 so that when I get to 4 I can drop them in the Mystic Forge.

Looks like he’s doing the same.

I do the same. Also minor runes and sigils.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Svetli.4276

Svetli.4276

sure but in the bank ? i use to do that but i keep them in my bags then go to mf and do the big dump

“What you wish for may not be what she wishes for.” – Skull Knight

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Ah, no, I keep them on me and not my bank. My bank is full of ascended mats and BLTC junk.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

If you dont’ believe go through the list of XXX black lion chest open on youtube, and check how many permanent license drop, pretty much 0.

I dont’ want to put false accusation, but I always get the feeling some marketing person keep come up to forum posting inaccurate results so people will buy those RNG stuff. Well the accusation is probably false, since there are always ignorant players, but it does make me guessing it is possible.

The original hair contracts were only dropped during Wintersday, therefore all of the data gathered on permanent hair contracts were equivalent to 0%.

However, if you look at the drop tables for the other contracts, they’re all floating around 0.25% which is 1/400. I‘m assuming it’s the same as the other contracts. If it’s not, it’s probably lower, not higher.

And to be completely honest, I know they drop. I looted a Black Lion Trader Contract without even knowing they were in the tables during the original release at Wintersday (double chance at the time, although I believe the rates were different back then).

I also looted another Black Lion Trader Contract on the day of the patch.

You can’t see my Personal Trader Express, but he’s in my inventory. If you want proof of them side by side, I can provide it. Either that or you can just say I shopped the image and bought it with real gold along with my original one.

Please educate us where you get the number from.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=black+lion+chest&page=1

All I see is someone who is probably a fake Anet representative trying to spread false information.

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

Please educate us where you get the number from.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=black+lion+chest&page=1

All I see is someone who is probably a fake Anet representative trying to spread false information.

There are conspiracy theories… and then there are conspiracy theories.

Server: Devona’s Rest

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

Please educate us where you get the number from.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=black+lion+chest&page=1

All I see is someone who is probably a fake Anet representative trying to spread false information.

There are conspiracy theories… and then there are conspiracy theories.

Exactly, but look at what he is typing. the chance is 1/400 for each?

Does he even know what they mean? That means if you’ll average 1 permanent kit for every 133 chest open. Look at the number of black lion weapon sold on the market compare to number of permanent kit sold. (And we are not even including the number of black lion weapon investers hoard).

Here is the loot table for GW2 wiki. And it is updated and redo often for every patch. I checked the results time to time. I’m not sure how many thousands of total results have been gathered. And I don’t think I ever seen 1 permanent kit drop. Nor does any of the youtube video drops.
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate

If you really think the chance is 1/400, at least let people know where you get the number from.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

There is only 1 official wiki, so by saying this I had assumed you checked it and then compared it to YOUR drop experiences, which is always a bad idea.

I then decided to say that they DO drop and are droppable, since you went on to say that they don’t drop based on your personal belief.

Nowhere did anyone ask for a source.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

If you dont’ believe go through the list of XXX black lion chest open on youtube, and check how many permanent license drop, pretty much 0.

I dont’ want to put false accusation, but I always get the feeling some marketing person keep come up to forum posting inaccurate results so people will buy those RNG stuff. Well the accusation is probably false, since there are always ignorant players, but it does make me guessing it is possible.

The original hair contracts were only dropped during Wintersday, therefore all of the data gathered on permanent hair contracts were equivalent to 0%.

However, if you look at the drop tables for the other contracts, they’re all floating around 0.25% which is 1/400. I’m assuming it’s the same as the other contracts. If it’s not, it’s probably lower, not higher.

And to be completely honest, I know they drop. I looted a Black Lion Trader Contract without even knowing they were in the tables during the original release at Wintersday (double chance at the time, although I believe the rates were different back then).

I also looted another Black Lion Trader Contract on the day of the patch.

You can’t see my Personal Trader Express, but he’s in my inventory. If you want proof of them side by side, I can provide it. Either that or you can just say I shopped the image and bought it with real gold along with my original one.

The data I’ve seen for BL chests isn’t quite consistent with 1/400 for each type of permanent contract (not counting the stylist). 825 chests opened by three reliable redditors and 0 contracts — with those odds, it’s pretty close to 100% chance that you’d get at least one contract with that many trials.

1:4,000 combined total seems more likely, with about a 31% chance of getting zero contracts.

I think that mostly means that we don’t have enough sources of reliable crowd-sourced data: a lot of people choose only to post if they get good stuff, which means we’ll see more permanent contracts in reported data that shows up in-game.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Esplen.3940

Esplen.3940

Actually, it’s only an 89% chance of looting 1 BLTC at the rate of 1/400 with 825 trials.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I don’t know why you keep saying chance are 1/400.

I saw wiki’s that keep updating the drop chance over the past years. It’s more like a few thousands results gathered and I’ve never seen a permanent license drop.

There is only 1 official wiki, so by saying this I had assumed you checked it and then compared it to YOUR drop experiences, which is always a bad idea.

I then decided to say that they DO drop and are droppable, since you went on to say that they don’t drop based on your personal belief.

Nowhere did anyone ask for a source.

Do you even know what math means? I never say they don’t drop. The drop rate obviously isn’t 1/400 “for each” type. That means you have 3/400 chances to get 1 of any types. That would mean 7-8 permanent license drops for every 1000 box open.

The wiki is updated every patch and a few thousands box have been opened already. Also the youtube videos with a few thousands box opened. None of them have it drop ANY permanent license, the guy above me also says none drop from the redditor open(obviously a bit less reliable than wiki or youtube video).

I never say they don’t drop. Obviously they are sold on the TP. "All I want to know is where you get your “most likely made up” 1/400 drop table information from". you said chances is 1/400 right? at least tell us why you think it is 1/400.

I never claim permanent license don’t drop. I’m saying the drop rate must be “very very” low. Look at the stacks of black lion weapon sold on the trading post. And compare that to permanent license.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Grenix.1576

Grenix.1576

Must admit i took the 1000 gems for 15 keys deal + 1 short evening of key farming.
21 keys used andi was very lucky to get 1 black lion ticket. Now ofc that is nice, but realizing you need like 30-70 scraps for a cool skin is like omg.. You get a scrap 1/10 chest maybe? Really there is far too much useless stuff in there. Why not put in the real skins?

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Because in ANet’s PoV, rare means rare. One in ten isn’t rare. An argument could be made that one in one hundred isn’t rare either, not in a game with several hundred thousand active players.

Of course once you get one you can dup it forever with the wardrobe now for a cost of a transmutation charge. I guess that’s an improvement.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: LadyRhonwyn.2501

LadyRhonwyn.2501

Must admit i took the 1000 gems for 15 keys deal + 1 short evening of key farming.
21 keys used andi was very lucky to get 1 black lion ticket. Now ofc that is nice, but realizing you need like 30-70 scraps for a cool skin is like omg.. You get a scrap 1/10 chest maybe? Really there is far too much useless stuff in there. Why not put in the real skins?

I used 17 keys and got 1 and 7 scraps… And today I opened a chest and got 2 scraps. That’s what random chance does. As I had opened about 20 chests somewhere last month (duh!) after hoarding keys for a few months (I have a lot of characters….) and got 5 scraps from them….

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

Must admit i took the 1000 gems for 15 keys deal + 1 short evening of key farming.
21 keys used andi was very lucky to get 1 black lion ticket. Now ofc that is nice, but realizing you need like 30-70 scraps for a cool skin is like omg.. You get a scrap 1/10 chest maybe? Really there is far too much useless stuff in there. Why not put in the real skins?

I used 17 keys and got 1 and 7 scraps… And today I opened a chest and got 2 scraps. That’s what random chance does. As I had opened about 20 chests somewhere last month (duh!) after hoarding keys for a few months (I have a lot of characters….) and got 5 scraps from them….

Obviously random is random. But there is also something called probability.

I don’t think the rate for scraps is as low as 1 in 10. Probably more like 1 in 5.

Check the web. There is quite large sample size to get a “fairly” accurate drop rate.

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Posted by: TheMagickDoll.7594

TheMagickDoll.7594

Lockboxes are a plague in the MMO market in general. it irks me to no end to see this game infected by it in an otherwise a fantastic game. Maybe not as great as City of Heroes, but still a really darn good game.

(edited by TheMagickDoll.7594)

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

who keep green runes in their bank honestly o_o

I collect them up and toss them in the Flusher about once a week….the bank is a logical place to keep them as I have no idea when or on what character I will be when I desire to go rune & sigil flushing….

The problem here is that very few players actually UNDERSTAND what a 0.25% drop rate MEANS. It does NOT mean you open 400 chests and get the item from one of them. It means you rolled a 400 sided die 400 times and never got a 400…..very possible.

We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances

(edited by Brother Grimm.5176)

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

who keep green runes in their bank honestly o_o

I collect them up and toss them in the Flusher about once a week….the bank is a logical place to keep them as I have no idea when or on what character I will be when I desire to go rune & sigil flushing….

The problem here is that very few players actually UNDERSTAND what a 0.25% drop rate MEANS. It does NOT mean you open 400 chests and get the item from one of them. It means you rolled a 400 sided die 400 times and never got a 400…..very possible.

I dont’ want to be harsh or anything. Why do people keep spreading the 1/400 rumors. Do you own NCSoft stock or something, or affiliate with Anet in anyway?

Or did the developer or anyone ever said the rate is 1/400.

The number of chest that’s been open on wiki or youtube is in the thousands. maybe like 5000+, there have never been any permanent license drop. And that sounds right because if you compare the velocity of black lion weapons to the permanent license. The rate is low.

So why exactly do you say the rate is 1/400. And do you mean the chance to get a permenant hair is 1/400, or the chance of getting a type of permanent license is 1/400.