Guild Wars 2

Due to the upcoming dye changes, there’s now potential investment opportunity. Unidentified dye drop rates will be nerfed next month, and has the markings of a profit making bubble.

Bubble Explanation: There are two things going on here. 1) There’s a need to unlock dyes for accounts and 2) There will be less UnID’d dye drops. For the completionists out there, many might want to fill their accounts with all 382 colors. By acting now, TP players can take advantage of these people by focusing on the Dye Markets. The upcoming increase in demand, and the pending hit to supply should mean prices will climb across the board. People will invest in ID’d common and uncommon dyes from the TP (since it’s cheaper), and will play with RNG for the more expensive rare ones. This bubble will be short lived, as times goes on, more and more people will have unlocked all the dyes they need. Demand will wane, and the only reason to retain UnID’d dyes will be for the Gift of Color.

Speculation 1: After the bubble bursts, UnID’d prices will drop, but individual ID’d dye prices should keep steady. New players or alt accounts will want specific dye unlocks, so that should keep demand up. There should still be a demand for those UnID’d dyes, albeit not as high as the initial rush in the next month or so.

Speculation 2: The bubble may burst for dye IDing, but might remain steady for Bifrost crafters. Depending on how badly drop rates are nerfed, UnID’d dyes could be Silver Doubloons v2.0 going forward.

Conclusion: Either way you look at it, prices should climb temporarily. How high it goes, no one can be sure. But if you want to turn a quick profit, start acting right away.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Conclusion: Either way you look at it, prices should climb temporarily. How high it goes, no one can be sure. But if you want to turn a quick profit, start acting right away.

Yes, act right away so I can make even more money off of your being late to the party.

Even with prices as high as they are now, there’s still room for growth. The first 24 hours are crucial, so people should consider buying now. It’s never too late to join a party.

This thread should be titled: Bag holders wanted

I saw #1 in your bullets, but where’d you see #2 (specifically, that dye drop rates would be adjusted)? If that’s not true, the whole theory is overstated… I won’t say “false”, because there will still be some level of increased rarity coming out of this.

If I missed it, I apologize in advance; but I don’t recall reading that.

KarateKid.5648:

I saw #1 in your bullets, but where’d you see #2 (specifically, that dye drop rates would be adjusted)? If that’s not true, the whole theory is overstated… I won’t say “false”, because there will still be some level of increased rarity coming out of this.

If I missed it, I apologize in advance; but I don’t recall reading that.

It’s found on the blog post here: https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/dyes-in-the-new-account-wardrobe/

Part of it says as follows:

Guild Wars 2 Team

With dyes becoming account unlocks, the demand for dye will decrease and unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.

No longer drop doesn’t seem like a nerf to me. It seems like a clear statement : no longer drop.

I speculate that in time the price will stabilize at around 1 gold or so – since a lot of what’s on the market currently as unID will eventually get used up – and with less influx of unID dyes we’ll soon have a pretty good demand.

I would advise holding on to them. At least until a few days before patch.
If you feel comfortable with the risk of keeping them for longer post-patch – go for it.
if you want a quick profit sell them right before. They should spike then too.

So… you realize every crappy common dye in the game right now can be converted into an unidentified dye if you have enough alts to consume it now before the 15th? Because you get an Unidentified Dye for every duplicate you have unlocked come patch day. My “Dye main” has almost the entire set, which means anything and everything I can cram onto my 15+ alts in the next two weeks becomes an unidentified dye on payday…

Time to ‘recycle’ some low value dyes…

You’re all too late.

Mada.5319:

You’re all too late.

To the big profits that were made this morning? Yes. But there is still some profit to be made even if you didn’t stock up on dyes before today.

Nike.2631:

So… you realize every crappy common dye in the game right now can be converted into an unidentified dye if you have enough alts to consume it now before the 15th? Because you get an Unidentified Dye for every duplicate you have unlocked come patch day. My “Dye main” has almost the entire set, which means anything and everything I can cram onto my 15+ alts in the next two weeks becomes an unidentified dye on payday…

Time to ‘recycle’ some low value dyes…

You do realize the bulk of players will never realize this. Only a few actually read the forums or the official announcements. There are FAR more casual players who just log in, play, and drift along with whatever’s going on in the game then there are informed players that form a strategy and stick to it.

There was a mini bubble today, but I have a feeling that the market still has life in it for the next few weeks. One day before, and up to when the update hits, you might see a sudden spike in prices, which would be the time to sell. After that, we don’t know if UnID’d dyes will be treated like Silver Doubloons on the TP.

The supply will drop and the demand will drop too. So the final price of uni dyes will be questionable. Currently expecting dyes to increase in price for awhle not sure what will happen after the update. But you can still get uni dyes for laurels.

Remember, while Laurels are a guaranteed way to purchase UnID’d dyes, they are also time gated.

The other thread has a Dev post noting that the unidentified dyes needed for bifrost will fall to 100.

Together with the Wardrobe being able to reproduce bifrost skins for alts, the potential for these to be the new Doubloons seems remote.

However, big picture

The dye changes were designed to raise money in the Chinese gemstore. But we wolnt need the gemstore to unlock the dyes. The price should remain some multiples of last Tuesdays market prices.

I think the people that are planning on selling those UnIDed dyes are going to be disappointed. The purpose of giving an UnID for dupes is to make up for people feeling like they wasted money – not to give players a way to make more money.

Because of this, the compensation UnIDed dyes will most likely be account-bound, just like the ones you acquire in PvP. However, on April 15th, people are going to find themselves identifying a lot of dyes that they’ve already got which will repopulate the inventory of the cheaper dyes which are currently in double-digit silvers.

I don’t know that they will drop back to 96c, but they will most likely be cheap. Particularly the ones that people don’t typically want. The UnIDed dyes that you find in the wild though, will probably remain valuable. After equilibrium is reached, the price will be higher than before, but certainly not 1g.

Prices of common and uncommon dyes won’t get too cheap, since another use for them is to MF for upgraded dyes.

You bring up a good point about account bound UnID’d dyes. If the duplicates offered are account bound, then tradeable UnID’d dyes can still be valuable for IDing or Gift of Color crafting.

Ulion.5476:

The supply will drop and the demand will drop too. So the final price of uni dyes will be questionable. Currently expecting dyes to increase in price for awhle not sure what will happen after the update. But you can still get uni dyes for laurels.

I have to agree with this point. We’re looking at half a million unidentified dyes landing with this patch AND a shared dye system. I don’t see any way that the market can recover from this in the short term. When I get the 100 duplicate dye credits and I have every dye that I would want, what’s the driver to buy more dye? I can only see the ultra rares holding any value to any leveled character/player. New players, however, are going to pay through the nose to get where we all are. ANet was smart with this, they keep the existing player base pacified, to a point, and they train the new crop of players to learn to pay with gems….

Like or not, this was a checkmate move.

Speculation: Not much profit to be made unless of course you want to donate your hard-earned money to the flippers who bought early and are now trying to offload at a significant profit margin.

Conclusion: Use some common sense.

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

If the credited dyes are account bound you won’t have a flood at all, I would imagine dyes will not be marketable until after they have been discovered…..

Cassocaster.4576:

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

If the credited dyes are account bound you won’t have a flood at all, I would imagine dyes will not be marketable until after they have been discovered…..

Highly doubt it. Unless they make the identified dyes unmarketable too it would be meaningless to make the unid dyes account bound.

Xenlai.8694:

Cassocaster.4576:

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

If the credited dyes are account bound you won’t have a flood at all, I would imagine dyes will not be marketable until after they have been discovered…..

Highly doubt it. Unless they make the identified dyes unmarketable too it would be meaningless to make the unid dyes account bound.

Please notice I said credited dyes…not all.

Cassocaster.4576:

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

If the credited dyes are account bound you won’t have a flood at all, I would imagine dyes will not be marketable until after they have been discovered…..

Since my main will unlock basically every dye for every one of my other characters, account bound UD’s make no sense AT ALL. This is a theoretical restriction I doubt will ever materialize.

Nothing in the release said that the compensation dyes would be account bound though.

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

Exactly. There’s going to be a ton of unid dyes released after the patch because of all the double ups of dyes everyone has unlocked on all their characters. I’m not touching them with a ten foot pole right now.

I can’t see UnID’d dyes getting past 80 copper barring high inflation from t6 mats (which have admittedly been going up). At 50 copper the psychological factor of spend 5 laurels, get 5 gold guaranteed hits (yeah I know, 4.25 after tax), at around 60 copper it become the best laurel to gold converter and at 70 it becomes cheaper for people who want their gift of fortunes to buy dyes, sell them and just get whatever t6 mats they are after.

I know laurels are time gated, but without specifically farming I usually get less t6 mats or UnID’d dyes than I can buy from my laurel, so I feel that laurels have the potential to fill in most of the gap left by regular drops, besides which their demand is going to drop off long term.

Cassocaster.4576:

Xenlai.8694:

Cassocaster.4576:

Xenlai.8694:

For the love of god do NOT listen to these guys. After the patch goes live the market will be flooded with unid dyes. Prices will drop and stabilize after a week or so. These guys only want you to buy the dyes they are selling.

If the credited dyes are account bound you won’t have a flood at all, I would imagine dyes will not be marketable until after they have been discovered…..

Highly doubt it. Unless they make the identified dyes unmarketable too it would be meaningless to make the unid dyes account bound.

Please notice I said credited dyes…not all.

My apologies, I should have clarified what I meant.
“The identified dyes from the credited unidentified dyes”. Even if the compensated unidentified dyes are account bound people will simply open them up and sell their duplicated dyes. The supply will force again the price of unid dyes down. Unless of course everyone decides to save 100 unids for their gift of color.

My advice: Buy Onions and Carrots.

If they dont increase in value due to dye crafting and cooking 500, you can use onions to make Lord Faren cry and WvW commanders can utilize carrots to make the pve achievement hunters follow them around the map during spring tourney.

Wanze.8410:

My advice: Buy Onions and Carrots.

If they dont increase in value due to dye crafting and cooking 500, you can use onions to make Lord Faren cry and WvW commanders can utilize carrots to make the pve achievement hunters follow them around the map during spring tourney.

Those are just going to give you common dyes though. Gathering and making unident grey’s seems like a better idea… or stocking up on abyss dyes while the price is depressed from the new gem shop dyes (chance at abyss from them).

Aberrant.6749:

Wanze.8410:

My advice: Buy Onions and Carrots.

If they dont increase in value due to dye crafting and cooking 500, you can use onions to make Lord Faren cry and WvW commanders can utilize carrots to make the pve achievement hunters follow them around the map during spring tourney.

Those are just going to give you common dyes though. Gathering and making unident grey’s seems like a better idea… or stocking up on abyss dyes while the price is depressed from the new gem shop dyes (chance at abyss from them).

Carrots and Onions are ingredients in 1 masterwork and rare dye recipe each.

And why do you believe that the value structure of dyes in general will stay the same?
By structure i mean that fine dyes will be less valuable in general than masterwork dyes and rare dyes will be the most expensive?

Until now this pricing was mostly determined by the relative droprate from unids and the gem store pack as well as the promotion through the forge.

If I look 6 months or a year down the line (when the mayority of the supply of identified and unidentified from pre patch and patch day are consumed) the crafting cost of dyes could have a big impact on their pricing. Until now unids were the biggest source of new dyes supplying the market and Anet stated that their droprate will be nerfed, so i would imagine that crafting will play a bigger role in new supply.
This could lead to price spikes even for certain common dyes of specific color, resulting in common dyes maybe ranging from 20 silver to 2g while masterwork dyes range from 50s to 4g.

If you check crafting costs of crafted fine unidentified dyes you will see that they range from 25s to 1.5g (masterwork range from 27s to 1.8g, most expensive fine is green and most expensive masterwork is gray). Those prices will fluctuate alot, of course, in the next 6-12 months and its hard to predict how it will peter out.

In general, with more emphasis on crafting dyes in the future, i think it would be a good idea, if Anet overhauls the whole process of crafting dyes. Cooking 500 is still to come and from reading the blog post topics, i dont think it will go live with the feature patch. So maybe they take a look at it to streamline crafting costs and the general process a bit better, for example higher karma costs depending on rarity.

I was shocked yesterday when I checked crafting recipes for dyes on spidy and saw that crafting a rare unidentified yellow dye costs a whopping 18,900 karma:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/recipe/3372

Fortunately, spidy has its calculations wrong and didnt consider that the karma price is for a bulk of 25 and not each individual peach and lemon.

Dyes and some related stuff will go up. But not as much on common dyes or very common mats such as carrots and onions. Before then people will be getting a lot of unidentified dyes for free from duplicates. That’s going to be a ton of dyes flooding the market. That means you’ll be waiting quite a while. I think that would be a better time to stock up on specific dyes you want to invest in then for longer term investments Vs. very common cooking mats and crafting.

Carrots and onions already spiked up from people using them to craft the dyes and it’s not really worth it now since it takes ~25-50s/1 of the un-IDed common dyes depending on type.

The only part that might go right would be that they may be needed for 500 cooking daily and then the demand would increase greatly. Outside of that it’s too iffy and you would have to hold onto them for too long for it to be worth it.

I could be wrong, but that’s just how I see it and I don’t see the chance to be worth it Vs. the sure thing of just picking and choosing what dyes to invest in when the market gets dumped on.

Aberrant.6749:

Dyes will go up, but I don’t think as much as people are expecting. Especially not on common dyes or very common mats such as carrots and onions. Before then people will be getting a lot of unidentified dyes for free from duplicates. That means you’ll be waiting quite a while. I think that would be a better time to stock up on specific dyes you want to invest in then for longer term investments Vs. very common cooking mats and crafting.

Carrots and onions already spiked up from people using them to craft the dyes and it’s not really worth it now since it takes ~25-50s/1 of the un-IDed common dyes depending on type.

The only part that might go right would be that they may be needed for 500 cooking daily and then the demand would increase greatly. Outside of that it’s too iffy and you would have to hold onto them for too long for it to be worth it.

I could be wrong, but that’s just how I see it and I don’t see the chance to be worth it.

Well, i wasnt talking about short term. Personally I also havent stocked up onions and carrots yet but i am considering. I just moved server, so guild storage space is not there yet to buy stacks of onions and carrots and store them in a vault. I could just buy them now and immediately relist them but that has the disadvantage that i have to figure out now at what price to list and i cant observe the market, while holding on to my stock.
I think the smartest thing to do would be crafting stacks of dyes now, as most of them require between 100-250 ingredients each (volume, not variety). As dyes itself also stack, it means that you could save between 99-249 inventory slots by crafting a whole stack of dyes, compared to buying the ingredients individually. That would also have the positive side effect of draining the supply of the ingredients, increasing their price and the value of your crafted product.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

Due to the upcoming dye changes, there’s now potential investment opportunity. Unidentified dye drop rates will be nerfed next month, and has the markings of a profit making bubble.

Bubble Explanation: There are two things going on here. 1) There’s a need to unlock dyes for accounts and 2) There will be less UnID’d dye drops. For the completionists out there, many might want to fill their accounts with all 382 colors. By acting now, TP players can take advantage of these people by focusing on the Dye Markets. The upcoming increase in demand, and the pending hit to supply should mean prices will climb across the board. People will invest in ID’d common and uncommon dyes from the TP (since it’s cheaper), and will play with RNG for the more expensive rare ones. This bubble will be short lived, as times goes on, more and more people will have unlocked all the dyes they need. Demand will wane, and the only reason to retain UnID’d dyes will be for the Gift of Color.

Speculation 1: After the bubble bursts, UnID’d prices will drop, but individual ID’d dye prices should keep steady. New players or alt accounts will want specific dye unlocks, so that should keep demand up. There should still be a demand for those UnID’d dyes, albeit not as high as the initial rush in the next month or so.

Speculation 2: The bubble may burst for dye IDing, but might remain steady for Bifrost crafters. Depending on how badly drop rates are nerfed, UnID’d dyes could be Silver Doubloons v2.0 going forward.

Conclusion: Either way you look at it, prices should climb temporarily. How high it goes, no one can be sure. But if you want to turn a quick profit, start acting right away.

Getting back on topic:

If you check the supply of unids on the tp, you will see that it now has doubled compared to before the announcement. Propably because alot of people used their laurels yesterday to make a quick buck. As prices also are nearly back to pre announcement levels, i wonder at what point people start opening them in bulk again to take advantage of the inflated prices of identified dyes right now.

People who stocked up on any kind of dye yesterday and havent sold it, might have to wait for a couple of months now until they will turn a profit, as most hobby speculators will start dumbing their supply to cut their losses now.

Don’t worry, it will work well. Anyway, what AN should yet offer is to unlock any special dye somehow, like if you want one of the new LA Survivor pack’s 6 exclusive – get that straight from somewhere, not just gamble it.

Wanze.8410:

My advice: Buy Onions and Carrots.

If they dont increase in value due to dye crafting and cooking 500, you can use onions to make Lord Faren cry and WvW commanders can utilize carrots to make the pve achievement hunters follow them around the map during spring tourney.

And – carrots make you temporarily immune to blind condition

Hello all,

Please be sure to ask your questions/leave your feedback on this thread, so we can keep track for the developers. Thank you!

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Dye-Changes-Feedback-Questions