Interesting Idea on Precursors

Interesting Idea on Precursors

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

So, I’ve been giving thought on precursors and the fairness of it all that would satisfy everyone. There is no such thing as global happiness, but I’ve thought of a way that might be the best idea to date.

When putting rare and exotic items towards a precursor in the Mystic Forge, instead just a random item back, it also gives a precursor token. One would be the possible upgrade in rarity and a token per rare.

For example. 4 rare great swords would yield the random rare or exotic great sword as well as 4 tokens. This token would later be traded to a precursor vendor when the appropriate number is met. A suggestion would be somewhere around 700-800 hundred. Exotics could yield 3 tokens per instead, giving them a bit of a boast because of rarity.

I know that is a lot still a lot of rares and exotics to burn, but the chance for the random drop should still be in place. This would allow people to visibly see progress and at least have a finish line, as well as allow Anet to still have a rare and exotic sink.

I believe this would have some impact on prices of precursors. But, since it requires a high number of tokens to get a precursor, the prices should not drop to what most people against changing the RNG system fear while allowing a cap on RNG for those of us with no luck.

Lets be honest, anyone who burns 700 or more rares has spent a massive amount of coin, and the fact that there is no evidence that any progress has been made is disheartening.

(edited by Kwishin.5124)

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Posted by: Curse Drew.8679

Curse Drew.8679

I think the main problem is the rgn from forge, not the rarity/price. A small portion of player claim to have spent 5k-10k+ gold and never recieved a precurser.

The consensus amoung players puts the odds of getting a precursers between 0.8%-1% chance with using exotics in the forge. So this would mean an average of 400-500 exotics for each precurser, but only Anet knows the exact odds.

Each precurser has different demands and prices. Usually greatsword, daggers, & staffs are highest demanded and fetch the highest price. Also the price of rares/exotics are correlative to the price of precursers. These things are importatant to keep in mind when developing a system to take the rgn out of getting a precurser.

I feel like the best way to not effect any markets and keep the same odds and price, would be to have a merchant where you can trade an exotic greatsword to them, and they would give you a exotic greatsword token, then after 400-500 tokens you can trade it for the greatsword precurser. They could do the same with yellows, but since the odds are 20% for yellows being upgraded to an exotic, the exchange would be closer to 2000-2500 rare tokens. But the trader could also change 5 rare greatsword tokens for 1 exotic greatsword token. This way if players feel they want to gamble they can, but if they don’t want to gamble they dont have to, and they don’t have to pay another player either.

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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

Although I like where the idea is going, something tells me people would just complain about the number of tokens you need. When people don’t know how much currency they need to spend (e.g. it’s a random system) it seems they are willing to go to great lengths into the void to get what they want; one of the more apparent examples of this is the people getting lots of keys for the chance at the permanent stylist kit. If the average number of keys they needed was translated into a concrete number, most would probably never try.

But that slim chance – the chance of “this next time” being the time you get lucky – is infinitely appealing.

I think a strong system for acquiring a precursor without RNG has to utilize a lot of hidden costs that are difficult to add up (not unlike the crafting of ascended gear). Otherwise, you have them being either 1) Too easy to obtain or 2) Too overwhelming for most people to bother.

Good thought though. The notion of having no progress is definitely disheartening.

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: Curse Drew.8679

Curse Drew.8679

something tells me people would just complain about the number of tokens you need.

People complain about everything.

When people don’t know how much currency they need to spend (e.g. it’s a random system) it seems they are willing to go to great lengths into the void to get what they want; one of the more apparent examples of this is the people getting lots of keys for the chance at the permanent stylist kit. If the average number of keys they needed was translated into a concrete number, most would probably never try.

But that slim chance – the chance of “this next time” being the time you get lucky – is infinitely appealing.

They can still gamble.

I think a strong system for acquiring a precursor without RNG has to utilize a lot of hidden costs that are difficult to add up (not unlike the crafting of ascended gear). Otherwise, you have them being either 1) Too easy to obtain or 2) Too overwhelming for most people to bother.

If precurser crafting system is similar to ascended crafting it will effect many markets, such as increasing crafting supplies prices. Another problem is that yellow and exotics will tank as soon as you can get a precurser by other means. The forge is a great item sink for yellows/exotics which gives them value. Also ectos/crystalline are associated with yellows/exotics and they will also be affected.

I don’t think there is a perfect answer that will satisfy everyone.

(edited by Curse Drew.8679)

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Posted by: Labjax.2465

Labjax.2465

If precurser crafting system is similar to ascended crafting it will effect many markets, such as increasing crafting supplies. Another problem is that yellow and exotics will tank as soon as you can get a precurser by other means. The forge is a great item sink for yellows/exotics which gives them value. Also ectos/crystalline are associated with yellows/exotics and they will also be affected.

I don’t think there is a perfect answer that will satisfy everyone.

I’m not thinking in terms of perfect or flawed – just in terms of what the likely result of certain changes would be.

Crafting system would influence the market in its own way – no doubt – but I’m sure there are ways to tweak it so that it integrates smoothly. Our vaguely named John Smith no doubt has a feel for how something like it could be done, considering that he’s overseen plenty of other economic changes.

For example, if yellows and exotics got a chance at an additional salvage item (either account-bound or sellable) – an item used in the crafting of precursor components – then you’d still have a strong market for those items and a reason to remove them from the economy through breaking them down.

I mean, you’re right in that it’s not as simple as it sounds. But I don’t think the crafting idea would result in anything predictably terrible; it would just require careful implementation and some economic logistics that go way beyond my understanding of the subject..

Or words to that effect.

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Posted by: Curse Drew.8679

Curse Drew.8679

True they could replace some of the demand for rare/exotic, by making the crafting take a ton of ecto or crystalline dust. Since it’s all hypothetical, only Anet can decide whats in the best interest of the game. I just figured i’d give my opinion on how to implement it and retain balance. Thanks for reading.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

The opposition to giving any other means of acquiring a precursor exists from people making a legitimate claim that the more legendary precursors there are, the less special the legendary weapons become.

The current system only satisfies this argument if Anet stops the creation of new legendary precursors now. As time moves on, legendary weapons are becoming increasingly more common. So, the argument is kinda invalid unless you take in account the trade post. There is were the true value of a precursor is shown. Not by bias but by statistics.

My method would give a means of stabilizing the precursor cost without absolute destruction of the value. I believe the current outrageous price for certain precursors will go down, but not enough to deter people from stopping the Mystic forge grind and buying strait out of the TP.

A suitable solution that would satisfy nearly all would be making NEW legendary weapons and stopping the production of the current precursors. Give the new legendary precursors the method I’ve describe. Then give a two year time limit on that set, then after that make new legendary weapons. A two year life cycle is more than enough in my opinion. This legitimize the argument for shinny specialness, while allowing those to strive for a fresh new start.

The only problem to this would be if the new legendary weapons looked significantly worse than the current ones on the market. This would also give Anet the ability to give certain time frames in special events to create the older model of precursor. Allowing them the ability to limit control, as well as flash destroy a huge amount of rares and exotics if the market goes crazy.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

More than doubling the rate of precursors from the forge would not be healthy.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

This token idea would just be an increased droprate in disguise.
You already get a precursor after throwing a certain amount of weapons into the forge. Chances for individuals may vary but in a macro economic sense, the chance is pretty stable.
Maybe right now 100k exotics and 1 million rares get thrown into the forge every day and 500 precursors are forged through that every day (those are random numbers).
Implementing your token idea would mean that maybe 1000 precursors are generated every day.

So youre just asking to double the droprate without considering the impact it would have on other material prices, for example those that are used to craft the gifts.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

correct on your math, but without statistics you’re just guessing. I am not trying to insult, but thems the breaks of your logic.

Currently the cost of precursors are such that making more would bring them down to a bit of a how should we say less HOLY BAWLS price.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

And like all other ideas, you do not consider the impact when you increase the supply of precursors. All other items that are required for a precursor will see an increase in demand resulting in higher prices.

Also, the opposition’s argument against crafting precursors is not just about them becoming less unique. That ship has sailed away over a year ago.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

True, the price of ingredients will increase as well. But, that is a factor that will happen no matter what changes to legendary weapons is made. If they introduce new weapons, mats will go up. If they add more precursors mats will go up. If they do nothing at all mats will still go up. There are so many sinks for mats that they will always have a high demand. Another problem is that more and more t6 mat sinks have been created with every event furthering the problem. If left alone the current system is doomed to failure. My method is not a fix all. Other factors would have to be considered obviously. But, that doesn’t eliminate the fact that it is legitimate.

This solution is more for showing a finish-line for folks. The thought that there would at least be an obtainable goal, albeit a far far off one. This would steal the wind from many of the RNG argument, while not destroying the precursor market.

This is just the best solution I’ve found to date. There will always be a problem, no matter what. However, I feel that this fix is easy to implement and leaning more towards fairness than the current broken system.

(edited by Kwishin.5124)

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

Let’s say your idea adds 25% more precursors into supply. Imagine what the prices of everything would be. This is not simple, natural inflation that you are trying to pass it off as.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

Inflation would have to be addressed, yes of course. But, this is assuming everyone that gets a precursor from the “new method” has to buy every single t6 material. Most don’t have all their t6, but the amount purchased from people that have been working on their current precursors is not so much more that it will destroy the t6 market. The t6 market has been subject to many factors, and have seen crazy recipe requirements from numerous event items. Some of which are not tied down to a time frame of the event alone.

There will be a bubble, like there was with event items and ascended. The t6 market will have to be addressed later with or without a precursor change.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

It’s not inflation when a prices are affected by changes in supply/demand in the situation being discussed. It was not inflation that caused precursor prices to soar in April.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

You are focusing on one facet that will have to be addressed regardless to change to precursors. You are correct on that, but it by no means invalidates the suggestion.

No matter what, there should to be a change to a broken system. If the dev’s do in fact add any change to precursors as they said they would about a year agoish (Don’t remember the exact date) there will be the same exact problem that any method of change would occur. So, the dev’s would have to consider the other affect on the crafting materials of a legendary.

This method would be a much better alternative to anything suggested so far. This is to include flat out crafting a precursor. Unless, the crafting requires a very very hard to get item that will require RNG to gather.

This suggested method would take out the RNG problem to a large extent. Fulfilling their promise to their consumer base, that there would be a new method to acquiring a precursor while not alienating the base that already has their legendary.

So in recap, absolutely there will be a problem in t6. Will it destroy the market. Not at all. Is the demand going to increase, yes momentarily.

A nice addition that would solve the long term demand increase is to allow only one precursor to be purchased via this method. This would appease those seeking their legendary by giving them a (I can’t stress this enough) far off goal, while not handing them out like candy. This is the best TP stable method I have seen.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Inflation would have to be addressed, yes of course. But, this is assuming everyone that gets a precursor from the “new method” has to buy every single t6 material. Most don’t have all their t6, but the amount purchased from people that have been working on their current precursors is not so much more that it will destroy the t6 market. The t6 market has been subject to many factors, and have seen crazy recipe requirements from numerous event items. Some of which are not tied down to a time frame of the event alone.

There will be a bubble, like there was with event items and ascended. The t6 market will have to be addressed later with or without a precursor change.

Ah, ok. So you just want to raise the droprate, so those players that have all or most mats for their legendary except the precursor can get a quick fix while totally disregarding economical changes for newer players…

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

Your comment doesn’t match the post. My answer to your reply is Banana

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

This method would be a much better alternative to anything suggested so far. This is to include flat out crafting a precursor. Unless, the crafting requires a very very hard to get item that will require RNG to gather.

This would appease those seeking their legendary by giving them a (I can’t stress this enough) far off goal, while not handing them out like candy.

First of all, the token idea was suggested many times. Your suggested method also, in fact, is a fixed crafting recipe because the amount of rares/exotics you have to forge is fixed.
It would result in a price increase of all t5 and t6 fine and common mats that are used in weapon crafting, increase prices for exotics and rares in general as well as ectos.

Those that have the bank roll to buy the needed weapons instantly (at their current cheap prices) will be the ones that profit from it, while Average Joe, who forges 12 weapons every day will have to eat up the increasing prices, getting no better deal in the long run.
The same holds true for the mats for the other gifts. Whoever buys the cheap supply first, will get the better deal, while someone who starts on his journey towards a legendary 1 month after the change, will propably have to pay more gold for all the mats than now.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

Your idea also ignores the impact this would have on exotic weapons and rare weapon prices from people throwing them in the forge. There’s also the prices of the components to craft them if people decided to go that route. All of those prices would increase and you could potentially be worst off than if you had just spent your gold to buy one outright.

Just do the math on how much gold one would have to spend to get enough tokens for an automatic precursor and then factor in the price increases that rare/exotic weapons would receive. In fact, you could make precursors even more expensive as the mystic forge is the primary way that they enter the market.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

This has been the case with every single roll out. A market flux will be inevitable. This holds true because there will always be added recipes from future events. The person that sees the trends always has the advantage. I saw the trend in Ascended armor before it happened and made sure I had a huge amount of cloth material before hand. Did I profit, absolutely. This in no way invalidates the argument.

There has always been an economical argument for any change in fairness and what is right. For example, if we can’t hire children to work in our factories for pennies on the dollar then the prices of goods will go up. Well, that system was broken, and this one is to.

You are correct that this would provide a fixed "recipe"ish (I would argue that price is a better example), but this would still not be the desired result. NO person in their right mind would hate to get the precursor drop on their first attempt, nor would any person in their right mind should be expected to drop 1k in g at a chance of a drop that actually has a decent chance at not dropping.

As for changes in the market on the effects of new players. New players should always go into an MMO with the expectation that prices have undergone changes without them. I don’t try and argue with a car dealership saying that cars used to cost 100 dollars, I will not pay more than that.

This would give a glimmer of hope, but not be what to strive for. If I spent over 600k on getting that precursor with no luck, and knew that I had 300k to go it would still be daunting. If the cost of forging enough tokens is more than the current market cost that would be acceptable, b/c the MF is still a gamble. This just hedges the gamble, allowing there to be a reasonable price for precursors. This a suggestion, a factor that says anyone who currently has a legendary or precursor is exempt from tokens can be implemented.

On the part that you said this was suggested many time. Sure, I can see that. Makes sense. Does that mean it isn’t a good idea or a suitable method. No, not at all. I’m sure the abolishment of slavery was suggested a few times prior to anyone taking notice. A spoken voice is not one that doesn’t deserve to get heard.

(edited by Kwishin.5124)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Usually, when users start using examples of car dealerships, slavery or other real life examples to support their short sighted suggestions to whatever personal problem they have with the game economy, i stop discussing.
I will do the same here.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

I have put many many suggestions catering to help curve the inflation as well as other economic factors already.

You just refuse to see the good in the idea, and wish to argue with it yelling the same thing over and over.

You are right friend. Using real life examples to show you the error of your way is terrible. You are doing just fine with pulling bias out of the air and applying it to your arguments. Saying because economy, is a cop out. The economy will always have to be dealt with.

And car dealership is a hot button topic for you… that was certainly interesting.

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

Once again, it’s not inflation.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

Your idea also ignores the impact this would have on exotic weapons and rare weapon prices from people throwing them in the forge. There’s also the prices of the components to craft them if people decided to go that route. All of those prices would increase and you could potentially be worst off than if you had just spent your gold to buy one outright. This takes away the "I already could have bought a precursor if I just went to the TP, and still have no clue if I am any where near close. Because random is that. Every flip of a coin does not add to the chance of landing on what you want.

You’re right. I agree. But, the cost is not the goal. It is a mitigating factor. If the price of crafting to the end of the “finish line” was still an expensive venture then there would not be a significant impact. This just shows people that if they do in fact spend a huge amount of coin that they will be able to get a precursor. Albeit, at a loss. The chance to pull one is the same, so there is a chance to get one cheap as there is now. But, the risk is there. Not a complete unknown as there is now.

But, yes you are right. I feel the system still has merit.

(edited by Kwishin.5124)

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

Once again, it’s not inflation.

as well as other economic factors already.

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

At the moment the mystic forge effectively puts a ceiling on the price of precursors, and it does an ok job of that.

What it does not do is offer an individual player a reliable way of obtaining a precursor, because it is played for that one RNG hit. It only makes sense to play the forge if you are wealthy enough to do it large scale so RNG evens out. This is why a token system would be an improvement.

I personally agree that the overall drop rate should not increase. If precursors drop every 100 forges now, make them drop every 200 forges and have 200 tokens buy a precursor. Have forging rares give a token one time in five, but halve the drop rate of precursors there too.

I think there are probably better systems for precursor acquisition mooted (no pun intended), but this one is less soul destroying than the current system where a played can drop 1000 g in the forge and be no closer to getting a precursor than before.

I am still pondering whether or not I think tokens should be tradeable.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

I personally am in the opinion that if tokens were implemented to not have them tradeable. I believe that this other item’s price fluctuation ability would compete too much with precursors already. I was trying to make an alternative that wouldn’t wreak too much havoc.

Seeing how the dev’s have said they were going to do something anyways, a method that wouldn’t melt the economy(long term) was the motivation.

As for the ceiling for precursors, I agree. I’ve seen stats on this and you are right, but this would take out the dreaded RNG. I hate the abyss of unknown RNG offers. It is a terrible way of implementing rarity. This allows for the current method to still be in place with a way to not completely screw a single player who drops 1k g and gets nothing to show for it.

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Posted by: Morsus.5106

Morsus.5106

The opposition to giving any other means of acquiring a precursor exists from people making a legitimate claim that the more legendary precursors there are, the less special the legendary weapons become.

Considering you can buy all of them with a credit card, they mean nothing to me. I still want one simply because it’s an end-game goal for me.

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

Considering you can buy all of them with a credit card, they mean nothing to me. I still want one simply because it’s an end-game goal for me.

No argument from me

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

I see you’ve met Wanze and Ayrilana….lol…nice chaps, terribly constructive, and 2 of the TP sections most eager.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Kwishin.5124

Kwishin.5124

yep.

Both have bias of course. Ayrilana at least raised valid points. Wanze just came out with a logical fallacy out the gate, and did nothing but try and attack without raising any additional points. Hence, my shortness with him.

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Posted by: Xanidus.3865

Xanidus.3865

And like all other ideas, you do not consider the impact when you increase the supply of precursors. All other items that are required for a precursor will see an increase in demand resulting in higher prices.

Also, the opposition’s argument against crafting precursors is not just about them becoming less unique. That ship has sailed away over a year ago.

OH NO!! More precursors would raise the price of items that I can actually farm and obtain!?!!? THE HORROR!!!

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Posted by: Ayrilana.1396

Ayrilana.1396

And like all other ideas, you do not consider the impact when you increase the supply of precursors. All other items that are required for a precursor will see an increase in demand resulting in higher prices.

Also, the opposition’s argument against crafting precursors is not just about them becoming less unique. That ship has sailed away over a year ago.

OH NO!! More precursors would raise the price of items that I can actually farm and obtain!?!!? THE HORROR!!!

Uh huh. The average player can farm the gold much quicker than they can those materials. All you’re doing is is causing them having to spend more gold than they really need to or spend more of their time. Such a nice trade off.

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Posted by: Tman.6349

Tman.6349

What they should really do is revert the stupid 4/15 update that allowed the MF to drop lvl. 76+ weapons even with 4 lvl. 80s. They increased the Legendary demand with the Wardrobe AND they decreased the supply of Precursors by adding non-80s into the forge tables. High prices is the ONLY thing that could happen with these two changes. So…either the Devs are daft or the prices are ‘working as intended’.

*BTW, the token idea was suggested over a year ago.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

The forge change that added lvl 75-79 weapons to the loot table did absolutely nothing to the precursor rate. Those lower level drops come at expense of pearls and generic level 80s, not precursors.

(edited by Ensign.2189)

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

The forge change that added lvl 75-79 weapons to the loot table did absolutely nothing to the precursor rate. Those lower level drops come at expense of pearls and generic level 80s, not precursors.

I sorta beg to differ. When forging precursors a lot of players throw outputs back into the forge to have more chances. Since those chances consist of more <80 level exos and we know that 80s have a higher chance than non 80s (based on what devs have told us), it effective reduces the rates (even if it is ever so slightly).

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

A couple of points on the Mystic Forge changes. I agree with Essence Snow that it is a nerf to the precursor drop rate for those who reforge the output. Any guess on the effect is going to use data that we aren’t privy to, but it could be as much as 10% for people who work with exotics and reforge all their non-precursor output.

As for the changes, John Smith indicated that the changes to the Mystic Forge are not yet in their final form, so there is hope for a fix at some stage.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

I sorta beg to differ. When forging precursors a lot of players throw outputs back into the forge to have more chances. Since those chances consist of more <80 level exos and we know that 80s have a higher chance than non 80s (based on what devs have told us), it effective reduces the rates (even if it is ever so slightly).

The rate is lower if you’re using a bunch of very low level exotics, but as long as the average level of the exotics (or rares) is at least 75 you have the maximum possible chance of getting a precursor. Throwing 4 80s into the forge doesn’t improve your odds over throwing 2 80s and 2 70s.

The game takes the average level of the items you throw into the forge, adds 5-11 (5-12?), and then rolls on the appropriate table. So if you throw rares with an average level of 74 into the forge you’ll usually get level 80 rares back but occasionally get 78/79 rares (and exotics, pre-change), but if the average level is 75 or higher you always get level 80 rares and are always rolling on the top table for exotics.

So even if you’re mindlessly throwing everything you get back into the forge, even if you have awful luck and get the level 75 Cleric’s Iron Greatsword over and over, you can throw 4 of them back into the forge and still have the best chance of getting a precursor.

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

The game takes the average level of the items you throw into the forge, adds 5-11 (5-12?), and then rolls on the appropriate table. So if you throw rares with an average level of 74 into the forge you’ll usually get level 80 rares back but occasionally get 78/79 rares (and exotics, pre-change), but if the average level is 75 or higher you always get level 80 rares and are always rolling on the top table for exotics.
.

This might be the sensible way to write the code, but based on dev comments I don’t think it is how it is actually done. I’ll have to go and chase down quotes, but I’m pretty sure that they have stated specifically that level 80 input gives the outright highest chance. Remember also that there was a time when a bug meant that throwing lower level exotics was more likely to result in a precursor, so I doubt the system works exactly the way you have assumed.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

This might be the sensible way to write the code, but based on dev comments I don’t think it is how it is actually done.

I disregard everything the devs have said and draw inferences strictly from data gathered in game. The devs will never give us straight numbers on drop rates and trying to infer how things work from the vague generalities they make is an exercise in futility; gathering data and seeing how it actually works cuts all that out and focuses purely on actual in game functionality.

I stand by everything I said before, as that’s how the forge actually works. I really could not care less about what some dev or another might have said at some point – if it might disagree with how things actually function in game, then whatever they said is simply wrong.

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

I stand by everything I said before, as that’s how the forge actually works.

So, do you have data showing that throwing in 78’s is the same as throwing in 80’s? Because if if you don’t have that data then you don’t know that “that’s how the forge actually works”. Unless you’ve seen the algorithm they used, rather than inferred it from incomplete data.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

So, do you have data showing that throwing in 78’s is the same as throwing in 80’s?

Yes.

(75s vs 80s actually, but that’s good enough for me).

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

So, do you have data showing that throwing in 78’s is the same as throwing in 80’s?

Yes.

(75s vs 80s actually, but that’s good enough for me).

Wow! Ok, i didn’t expect that since it would have to be a huge data set to be confident that the difference was less than, say, 20% (you’d need something like 50 precursors forged from each group). I don’t suppose you have a link?

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

Wow! Ok, i didn’t expect that since it would have to be a huge data set to be confident that the difference was less than, say, 20% (you’d need something like 50 precursors forged from each group). I don’t suppose you have a link?

You don’t need anywhere near that many. Drop rates are not independent of each other, and are not continuous random variables but discrete random variables constrained to values constructed from small integers in predictable ways. The evidence tends to stack up pretty quickly on one bucket, at which point you can stop thinking about it.

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

Wow! Ok, i didn’t expect that since it would have to be a huge data set to be confident that the difference was less than, say, 20% (you’d need something like 50 precursors forged from each group). I don’t suppose you have a link?

You don’t need anywhere near that many. Drop rates are not independent of each other, and are not continuous random variables but discrete random variables constrained to values constructed from small integers in predictable ways. The evidence tends to stack up pretty quickly on one bucket, at which point you can stop thinking about it.

I had assumed that you just did a bunch of tests with level 75’s and compared it with your results for 80’s based on your earlier statements, but here you imply that you did other tests. Given your vagueness I suppose I will just either have to take your word for it or remain unconvinced.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

(you’d need something like 50 precursors forged from each group)

A bit more on this. A priori power calculations are useful for estimating how much is going to go into showing some result, but in practice the amount of data you need can vary wildly depending on the particular hypotheses you are testing and how the dice roll.

For example when the game first came out I wanted to test whether or not a mesmer’s phantasms were affected by an accuracy sigil. This should have been a straightforward, easy test – a naked mesmer has a 4% crit chance, 9% with the sigil, which should be easy to distinguish. But to be thorough, I checked the 4% crit, which was stubbornly high; after an hour and a half of testing my rate was still sitting at 4.8%, at a one tailed p-value of around 2%. The with sigil numbers didn’t cooperate either; they were persistently low, and it took nearly an hour for it to rise high enough to pass a t-test.

With the precursor tests, I got lucky – the level 75 precursor test ran hot. If I was trying to nail down an exact percentage ‘running hot’ doesn’t mean anything, since the confidence interval shrinks regardless – but I was testing whether the rate was lower than the level 80 rate, and the test running hotter than the level 80 test threw out hypotheses where the rate was significantly lower very, very quickly.

So if by chance you wanted to argue that level 75 exotics had a higher precursor rate in the forge than level 80 exotics, I would have had trouble rejecting that; but since the hypothesis inevitably runs the other way I ‘lucked out’ and was able to reject that with a fairly small sample size.

EDIT

As a thought experiment, imagine that the presumed precursor rate was 1 in 100. You run two tests generating 1000 exotics, the first with average level 75 exotics, the second with level 80 exotics.

From this, you acquire, hypothetically, 13 precursors out of 1000 exotics from the level 75 sample, and 8 precursors out of 1000 from the level 80 sample.

Both of these results are consistent with a 1 in 100 rate, given the sample size. It may not give you a great confidence interval for each individually. But getting 13 precursors from the lower level sample but only 8 from the higher level sample is pretty strong evidence that level 80 exotics aren’t any better for forging precursors than the level 75 exotics – you’d have had to get very lucky on the 75s and very unlucky on the 80s for that to be true.

(edited by Ensign.2189)

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

I had assumed that you just did a bunch of tests with level 75’s and compared it with your results for 80’s based on your earlier statements.

Level 80s vs 3 80s and a 60 or 3 80s and a 65. As the latter group ran hotter, it didn’t take much to see that the level 75-76 group did not have a lower rate than the level 80 group (it is much more probable that the 75-76 group has a higher rate than the level 80 group).

You throw in all the other stuff that comes out of the forge and use a multivariate model selection because it converges much, much more quickly than trying to guess the precursor rate alone – the ‘uniquely named’ exotic rate converges on model parameters 7x faster before considering edge effects, for example, which was incredibly valuable for selecting unique model parameters.

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Posted by: Cormac.3871

Cormac.3871

Thanks Ensign for the follow up. I wasn’t trying to be difficult I promise, and I appreciate that you took the time to tell me what you did.