Guild Wars 2

Basic math question probably, but asking doesn’t hurt i spose.

Is the chance of tossing 4 random lvl 80 rare weapons in the MF and getting a random precursor identical to tossing 4 lvl 80 rare daggers in the MF and getting Spark?

I dont’ think anyone know the answer to that. You need pretty large sample size to test that.

Dropping 4 rare => Roll for an exotic item 1chance/x + Roll for a precursor 1chance/y =>1/x^1/y
Dropping 4 exo => Roll for a precursor 1chance/y => 1/y
As far as I know 1/y > 1/x^1/y No need to have a sample test to say that dropping exo gives more chance than dropping rare in MF in order to get a precursor.
Dropping rare in MF random or not requires you to be much more luckier than if you would drop exotic, waste of money to use rare in my mind.

In your case you want to get a specific precursor dropping random rares then you have much less chance math based to get spark while dropping random rares into MF because you then have 1/y^1/x^1/z (where z is the amount of different precursors in the game available)

Titan.3472:

Dropping rare in MF random or not requires you to be much more luckier than if you would drop exotic, waste of money to use rare in my mind.

I don’t quite understand the “much luckier” assumption here. Dropping rares into the forge yields a ~20% chance of an exotic, which then has exactly the same probability to be a precursor (say 0.3% or whatever).

Given that a rare sword is 5+ times cheaper then an exotic you throw in, the probability of a precursor is pretty much the same (if not better) when using rares, for a set amount of gold.
It also gives you a larger sample of tries with the forge the RNG)

If you then actually sell any exotics you get back to the trading post, you can make something back and lower your exposure.

So, in the long run 20 rares weapons thrown in should cost you ~7g and return 1 exotic – which you can sell for say 2g, at a net cost of 5g a pop. This gives you 5 batches of tries.
Same odds with flushing exotics and not selling anything back will cost you 8g. It will give you 1 try.

Costs is another parameter and its evaluation is total supposition as the real % chance to get precursor implemented are not known. Another thing is the paramaters that are set up at starts and what each person is experiencing is completly different things as its based on random chance. There will be 1/a to not get any precursor after 1000 tries as there is 1/b to get one at first try; between these two extrem probability there is a balance and medium rate when you are going to get one for the vast majority of people.

Er, yes costs are an assumption just like everything else about everything else in precursor speculation. You suggest throwing exotics endows you with some “extra luck” though..

But whoever has been throwing weapons into the forge (and kept some data about it) has a sample large enough to tell you their estimated long-run probability of getting an exotic out from dumping 4 rares in. For me it’s around ~20% chance.

If you hold all other factors constant and assume any random tiny number for the probability of that exotic turning out to be a precursor (I don’t know, 0.5% or 0.3% or 0.8% let’s say), then the following should be the case:

- 4 exos @ 0.80% chance for precursor, for example
- 4 rares @ 20% x 0.80% = 0.16% chance for a precursor, for example

Unless you are assuming that 4 exotics give a somehow ‘preferential’ chance of a precursor (e.g. 4 exotics give 1% for precursor, but 4 rares only give 0.001%, even though 4 rares have 20% chance of giving an exotic — which is beyond me, as we are talking about a random number generator here), then running the above through a random numbers generator for, say, a 500g budget will in the long run give you more precursors on such a relatively small budget 99% of the time (because probability is so small for it, reduction by 80% of that tiny probability is peanuts) – you want as many tries as you can get!

Throwing in exotics has a much larger standard deviation = much larger risk. You can win big if lucky, and lose 5-fold if unlucky.

And guess which is the likely scenario on such a small budget of 500g?

What am I missing?

I don’t think many people understand his question.

The question is if “every type of weapon” have the same precursor chance. Since for some weapon type there are more exotic version of it.

I don’t think anyone have a sure answer of that.

Logically:

If you have a given % chance of getting a precurser from 4 random exotics. For arguments sake lets call it 1%. Then that chance doesn’t change regardless of which 4 exotics you use. The difference is that when putting in 4 exotics of a specific weapon type, IF you get a precursor its ‘guaranteed’ to be the same type of the ones you put in. So if you are trying to get ‘The Hunter’ for example you are more likely to get it by dumping 4 exotic rifles into MF than you are by throwing in 4 random exotics. If you just want ANY precursor with the assumption that you can just sell it and buy the one you want. Then using 4 of the cheapest exotics you can get is your best bet as far as cost is concerned(using exotics, not in general). This same logic applies to using rares. From a cost perspective, if you just want ANY precursor, you are better off from a cost perspective to throw in 4 random rares with the hopes that in the ~20% chance that it returns an exotic that you actually get a precursor.

There has been a vague hint by Anet that there may be some sort of ‘preference’ in the RNG if you use certain specific items when trying to get a precursor. Just search back through the many precursor threads for their response if curious but since that is just something that Anet said rather than ‘showed’ you can take that how you want. But from a theorycraft standpoint I think we have beaten this horse pretty well.

Based on this, if I was trying to get a precursor from the MF. I would compare the avg costs of rares of a given type to the cost of the respective precursor and if possible try to use 4 of the same type of weapon for the precursor of the highest value. That way if and when I get one I can sell it, buy the one I actually ‘need’ and hopefully make back some of what was spent. If the cost difference in types of rare weapons was more significant (like 10s per weapon or more) than I would consider going the random route. But keep in mind some precursors aren’t worth jack so it is still a gamble.

In addition to this I would also keep in mind that assuming a 20% chance of getting an exo from 4 rares, that would mean that in theory you get 6 tries for the price of 5 if you dump the rare results back into the MF and just sell the exo. You may also want to consider the value of the exo itself and perhaps just keep the exo results and try throwing 4 of those into the MF as well. Though you would be looking at a 100% money sink banking on the fact you get a valuable precursor for less than their current market price. Which is where hard data would be interesting to see.

If I had a lot of money to burn then I would consider doing this purely for the knowledge and data I’d be able to pass on to others, lol. But who has that kind of money to really burn and the dedication to record every expenditure at the same time?

Excellent response, greg. Thanks ^^