Guild Wars 2

Fixing non-random forum bug.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

uhohhotdog.3598:

RNG doesn’t mean you have an equal chance at every type of ring. Only if that’s how it is set up.

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

Being weighted doesn’t make it not random. It’s like when you go into pvp and you pick a map. 7 people might pick one map but the game randomly picks a spot between 1-10. There’s just a higher chance that the map with 7 picks will match the random number.

uhohhotdog.3598:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

uhohhotdog.3598:

RNG doesn’t mean you have an equal chance at every type of ring. Only if that’s how it is set up.

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

Being weighted doesn’t make it not random. It’s like when you go into pvp and you pick a map. 7 people might pick one map but the game randomly picks a spot between 1-10. There’s just a higher chance that the map with 7 picks will match the random number.

It makes the outcome non-random, which is functionally the same as if you would have had a non-random dice in the first place.

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

I guess I’d say this:

It’s a loot system that uses a RNG, but it isn’t a RNG loot system.

You might all think that’s pedantic and I’m just trolling, but I don’t really care.

The overall point which I intended to make from the beginning is that there’s a strong chance that if you roll a ring in fractals, the selection of your ring among the 26-34 available either isn’t made independently or is not random.

Also, I just want to add that I think the OP has too low of a sample size to really start making any claims, but I think my sample size is large enough that I can have confidence in mine. I could run a power analysis to give you all a sense of the kind of confidence you could have with 42 trials, but I’m pretty sure it’s high enough.

If you flipped a coin 84 times that’s enough times to tell you if the coin is weighted, and because I rolled 84 rings I’m confident in my results.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

No it is not the same. If you have a weighted dice the odds of getting the fixed roll increase. While the odds of getting other numbers decreases.

The loot tables have absolutely no impact on the rolls you receive. if 90 is worth more then 6 that has literally no impact on you rolling a 90 or a 6. So the RNG number is NOT weighted it’s not like a weighted dice. You are more likely to receive a certain item as a reward, however you are not more likely to roll a certain number over any other certain number.

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

No it is not the same. If you have a weighted dice the odds of getting the fixed roll increase. While the odds of getting other numbers decreases.

The loot tables have absolutely no impact on the rolls you receive. if 90 is worth more then 6 that has literally no impact on you rolling a 90 or a 6. So the RNG number is NOT weighted it’s not like a weighted dice. You are more likely to receive a certain item as a reward, however you are not more likely to roll a certain number over any other certain number.

Doesn’t magic find fly right in the face of that though? If it is supposed to increase the likelyhood of a certain rarity, then it’s weighting that rarity.

Essence Snow.3194:

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

No it is not the same. If you have a weighted dice the odds of getting the fixed roll increase. While the odds of getting other numbers decreases.

The loot tables have absolutely no impact on the rolls you receive. if 90 is worth more then 6 that has literally no impact on you rolling a 90 or a 6. So the RNG number is NOT weighted it’s not like a weighted dice. You are more likely to receive a certain item as a reward, however you are not more likely to roll a certain number over any other certain number.

Doesn’t magic find fly right in the face of that though? If it is supposed to increase the likelyhood of a certain rarity, then it’s weighting that rarity.

ANet’s RNG system has an equal chance of rolling a 1 as it does a 100. It is not affected at all by what item that ANet has assigned to those rolls.

The Nevets Crimsonwing is trying to say that if 1-10 gives Ring A that if you roll a 5 your next roll is weighted to give a higher chance of getting a number between 1 and 10. Because she’s getting more doubles than she thinks she should be getting.

What were saying is no, that’s not the case and that there’s not enough data to prove that there is a glitch in the system or not.

We’re not saying she’s lying. Just that she hasn’t proved it.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

uhohhotdog.3598:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

uhohhotdog.3598:

RNG doesn’t mean you have an equal chance at every type of ring. Only if that’s how it is set up.

Random means equal chance at each outcome. If there are 4 numbers for a given ring and one number for another, it’s the functional equivalent of a weighted number generator.

Being weighted doesn’t make it not random. It’s like when you go into pvp and you pick a map. 7 people might pick one map but the game randomly picks a spot between 1-10. There’s just a higher chance that the map with 7 picks will match the random number.

It makes the outcome non-random, which is functionally the same as if you would have had a non-random dice in the first place.

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

I guess I’d say this:

It’s a loot system that uses a RNG, but it isn’t a RNG loot system.

You might all think that’s pedantic and I’m just trolling, but I don’t really care.

The overall point which I intended to make from the beginning is that there’s a strong chance that if you roll a ring in fractals, the selection of your ring among the 26-34 available either isn’t made independently or is not random.

Also, I just want to add that I think the OP has too low of a sample size to really start making any claims, but I think my sample size is large enough that I can have confidence in mine. I could run a power analysis to give you all a sense of the kind of confidence you could have with 42 trials, but I’m pretty sure it’s high enough.

If you flipped a coin 84 times that’s enough times to tell you if the coin is weighted, and because I rolled 84 rings I’m confident in my results.

Your sample size was done over different fractal level sets. Each one possibly has a different loot table and therefore different chances of rings. You would need to have a large sample size from one fractal level set.

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

No it is not the same. If you have a weighted dice the odds of getting the fixed roll increase. While the odds of getting other numbers decreases.

The loot tables have absolutely no impact on the rolls you receive. if 90 is worth more then 6 that has literally no impact on you rolling a 90 or a 6. So the RNG number is NOT weighted it’s not like a weighted dice. You are more likely to receive a certain item as a reward, however you are not more likely to roll a certain number over any other certain number.

The OUTCOME is the same. If, on a 5 sided dice, 1 represents whites, 2 represents blues, 3 represents greens, 4 represents yellows, 5 exotics, OBVIOUSLY the lower numbers will be weighted MORE.

The effect of assigning whites and blues MORE NUMBERS is functionally equivalent as giving them ONE NUMBER but WEIGHTING that number MORE.

Seera.5916:

Essence Snow.3194:

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Like, I understand what everyone is saying. The game rolls a random number, and then the loot tables are weighted. But because the loot tables are weighted, it’s the same as if you had a weighted dice.

No it is not the same. If you have a weighted dice the odds of getting the fixed roll increase. While the odds of getting other numbers decreases.

The loot tables have absolutely no impact on the rolls you receive. if 90 is worth more then 6 that has literally no impact on you rolling a 90 or a 6. So the RNG number is NOT weighted it’s not like a weighted dice. You are more likely to receive a certain item as a reward, however you are not more likely to roll a certain number over any other certain number.

Doesn’t magic find fly right in the face of that though? If it is supposed to increase the likelyhood of a certain rarity, then it’s weighting that rarity.

ANet’s RNG system has an equal chance of rolling a 1 as it does a 100. It is not affected at all by what item that ANet has assigned to those rolls.

The Nevets Crimsonwing is trying to say that if 1-10 gives Ring A that if you roll a 5 your next roll is weighted to give a higher chance of getting a number between 1 and 10. Because she’s getting more doubles than she thinks she should be getting.

What were saying is no, that’s not the case and that there’s not enough data to prove that there is a glitch in the system or not.

We’re not saying she’s lying. Just that she hasn’t proved it.

As I’ve said before, stats doesn’t prove anything, it just gives likelihoods of differences existing.

All I’ve said from the beginning is my data show that it’s very likely there is a difference in drops than would be expected if the rings were assigned simply by rolling a 26-34 sided dice.

That’s it.

I’ve made no claims as to why (different levels assigning rings differently, resets affecting drops, different ring drop rates altogether) I’ve just claimed that there seems to be a difference from what you’d expect if you had equal chances of any of the rings dropping.

Another good point is that we KNOW uninfused rings are supposed to drop less at higher tiers.

So we KNOW the tiers have differences between infused and uninfused at the very least.

While most of my rings were done in the 40s and 50s, I admitted on the other thread that the earlier ones likely were not.

That’s definitely a factor which could play a role – but if you think about it your odds of getting the same ring in a row twice actually DECREASE because now instead of 34 different rings, you have a pool of 68 to potentially choose from.

Also, all the “doubles” I counted were of the same type – all infused.

When they tell me I have a truly random chance to get an ascended ring, and all the rings in the loot table are account bound and worth the same to the vendor, I would expect them all to have the same chance of dropping. If it then turns out that the dice roll is weighted to make a certain ring have a larger chance of dropping than others, then I feel cheated and I can’t consider it true RNG.

That’s how I my head wraps around it… I completely understand the position of those that say that the dice roll is RNG, and after that you get a weighted loot table where some items have a larger range of numbers than others. And that a system like that is RNG nonetheless.

I just feel cheated for some reason when the item type, tier, price is all the same, yet the table is manipulated to make you have a larger chance of getting an item with less desirable stats.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

The OUTCOME is the same. If, on a 5 sided dice, 1 represents whites, 2 represents blues, 3 represents greens, 4 represents yellows, 5 exotics, OBVIOUSLY the lower numbers will be weighted MORE.

The effect of assigning whites and blues MORE NUMBERS is functionally equivalent as giving them ONE NUMBER but WEIGHTING that number MORE.

Correct, how ever that has LITERALLY NO IMPACT on the fact that 1 is just as likely to come up as 6. I am talking strictly about the random number generated I am not talking about the rewards associated with the number.

So yes even if the odds are higher you will get a lower quality item because the lower quality item has more numbers assigned to it.

So lets use the d6 example, if 1-3 is the lowest teir reward, 4-5 average, 6 highest: This does not mean that the RNG is not random, it does not mean that you are more likely to roll 1 then you are a 6. It means that roughly half the time you will be likely to receive the lower teir reward, because you rolled a 1, a 2, or a 3. Your chance of rolling a 1 a 2 or a 3 are no different then rolling a 6, this IS how most rng loot systems work.

I’ve asked before, Nevets; do you believe that GW2 has literally no RNG loot system in place? According to what you have said it’s not random unless every outcome has the same chance, so if the RNG “worked” you should have the same chance of getting a precursor as you do a green. Is this what you are saying?

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

The OUTCOME is the same. If, on a 5 sided dice, 1 represents whites, 2 represents blues, 3 represents greens, 4 represents yellows, 5 exotics, OBVIOUSLY the lower numbers will be weighted MORE.

The effect of assigning whites and blues MORE NUMBERS is functionally equivalent as giving them ONE NUMBER but WEIGHTING that number MORE.

Correct, how ever that has LITERALLY NO IMPACT on the fact that 1 is just as likely to come up as 6. I am talking strictly about the random number generated I am not talking about the rewards associated with the number.

So yes even if the odds are higher you will get a lower quality item because the lower quality item has more numbers assigned to it.

So lets use the d6 example, if 1-3 is the lowest teir reward, 4-5 average, 6 highest: This does not mean that the RNG is not random, it does not mean that you are more likely to roll 1 then you are a 6. It means that roughly half the time you will be likely to receive the lower teir reward, because you rolled a 1, a 2, or a 3. Your chance of rolling a 1 a 2 or a 3 are no different then rolling a 6, this IS how most rng loot systems work.

I’ve asked before, Nevets; do you believe that GW2 has literally no RNG loot system in place? According to what you have said it’s not random unless every outcome has the same chance, so if the RNG “worked” you should have the same chance of getting a precursor as you do a green. Is this what you are saying?

I’m saying language is important and saying the loot system is “RNG” does not provide an adequate picture of what is actually happening. Sure ANET might use a RNG, which corresponds to different drops in weighted loot tables, but that’s the same thing as assigning each item one number and simply weighting the numbers.

The loot system is not a RNG loot system, it’s a system that uses a RNG.

I’m also saying that I don’t think fractal rewards drop independently or randomly.

… A loot system that uses RNG as it’s basis for determining loot is a RNG loot system. Have you played any other games that you pick up loot from? They are all called RNG loot systems unless the drop rate of the item is 100%…

Miku.6297:

… A loot system that uses RNG as it’s basis for determining loot is a RNG loot system. Have you played any other games that you pick up loot from? They are all called RNG loot systems unless the drop rate of the item is 100%…

And the language is stupid because the loot isn’t random and is weighted. RNG doesn’t tell the whole story.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

And the language is stupid because the loot isn’t random and is weighted. RNG doesn’t tell the whole story.

The language is fine, many players understand that in an RNG loot system some items are common to get and others are rare. This is fairly common and widely excepted knowledge.

The only real exception to this is some algorithms have been proven to have issues when a certain range of account seeds are introduced. A-net has claimed that the RNG loot system does not have this issue.

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

And the language is stupid because the loot isn’t random and is weighted. RNG doesn’t tell the whole story.

The language is fine, many players understand that in an RNG loot system some items are common to get and others are rare. This is fairly common and widely excepted knowledge.

The only real exception to this is some algorithms have been proven to have issues when a certain range of account seeds are introduced. A-net has claimed that the RNG loot system does not have this issue.

An appeal to the majority is petty. Language matters, and if you just claim the loot is RNG, it doesn’t give the whole picture as the loot drops mimic a weighted number generator.

And besides, the whole point of this thread is that a subset of loot which should theoretically ACTUALLY be random (the rings) are probably not.

If a word or term used to define something fits the majorities use, and the majority understand it as such, it’s hardly petty. Calling a valid point petty on the other hand.

The loot is based on a RNG loot system. Rings and everything else for that matter, weighted or not it is still a RNG loot system.

OP just use your prestine relics to get the ring you want. If your a serious fractal runner you will soon realize that they have no other use after. Don’t worry your not missing out. If I could give my many infused zerker rings to you. I sell all my rings that aren’t infused even zerker ones. If I remember correctly the first zerker ring I got from fractals was around my 300 fractals…so I guess that’s an example of how great RNG is (Sarcasm) By then I was doing 50s daily so I had all ascended and had not use for them.

I definitely see a pattern in when I get ascended, exotic and rare drops. I will literally get a bunch of these in a row and then nothing for about 2 weeks. The RNG software used in MMOs are usually pretty bad, that being said you ultimately can’t get away from the fact that true RNG doesn’t exist. It can’t be programmed, therefore non-random patterns and sequences will occur. Good RNG programs just make it less visible to us, but it is still there.

Why do you keep all those rings? Just sell it, it fills your bank for nothing.

Sorin.4310:

There are 26 rings that can come from bonus chest. The chance of getting the same 2 5 times (I’m going to ignore infused):

(2/26)^5 = 0.000002693, or 0.0002693%.

This might make you think something must be bugged, but considering literally millions of daily bonus chests have been opened, statistically, there should be other people in the same boat as you. Are you a statistical outlier? Yeah definitely. Are you bugged? No probably not.

You might actually want to recheck your calculations, because those you supplied are not correct. Or even close to correct.
Hint: the chance you are looking for is somewhere around 0.05% – so low, but not actually impossible.

Their RNG engine seems to use some non-random seeds which lead to doubles and triples being highly likely. There are over 100 different rare items, but if you do a world boss you have about a 50% chance to get 2 of the same rare item IF you receive more than one. I suspect the same thing is happening with the fractal RNG engine. You can overcome it by just brute forcing your way through it, but you will have a whole pile of doubles along the way.

Derigar.7810:

So from 5 ring drops, I got only 2 types…

That’s pretty rare if you people are saying it’s “RNG”. From what I’m seeing, it’s not RNG. If my next ring will be either one of those two, then my account might just be glitched?

RNG is RNG. I hate fracs but when I decided to go get a pair of zerk rings I got a set in 2 runs and haven’t really been back. Some people have good luck and some dont.

sorry about your luck.

eithinan.9841:

Derigar.7810:

So from 5 ring drops, I got only 2 types…

That’s pretty rare if you people are saying it’s “RNG”. From what I’m seeing, it’s not RNG. If my next ring will be either one of those two, then my account might just be glitched?

RNG is RNG. I hate fracs but when I decided to go get a pair of zerk rings I got a set in 2 runs and haven’t really been back. Some people have good luck and some dont.

sorry about your luck.

Sigh. RNG is used as this mystic catchall in this thread without a real understanding of what it means. People like Miku use the phrase without even thinking and it’s just used to wave away all patterns perceived by players, even when some are legitimate.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Sigh. RNG is used as this mystic catchall in this thread without a real understanding of what it means. People like Miku use the phrase without even thinking and it’s just used to wave away all patterns perceived by players, even when some are legitimate.

Sigh People like Nevets always come in with their tinfoil hat logic, and completely ignoring any other possible rationalizations. Using faulty calculations and miss information to explain their logic.

The term RNG loot or when someone says it’s just bad RNG doesn’t mean it’s 100% even chance for you to get any loot, it means it’s a random chance for you to get something.

Miku.6297:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Sigh. RNG is used as this mystic catchall in this thread without a real understanding of what it means. People like Miku use the phrase without even thinking and it’s just used to wave away all patterns perceived by players, even when some are legitimate.

Sigh People like Nevets always come in with their tinfoil hat logic, and completely ignoring any other possible rationalizations. Using faulty calculations and miss information to explain their logic.

The term RNG loot or when someone says it’s just bad RNG doesn’t mean it’s 100% even chance for you to get any loot, it means it’s a random chance for you to get something.

Once again Miku is wrong.

You don’t have a random chance to get loot. That’s the problem with using RNG to describe a weighted loot system. Your drops aren’t random, some are more likely than others. It’s not ’I’ve got a random chance to get a precursor’ it’s instead, ’I’ve got a really low chance to get a precursor.’

LoL So following Nevets’ logic, has any morpg used RNG loot?

As long as you have a chance, to get item a, b, c, or d no matter how low or high the chance of getting each item is; a random number is still generated and assigned to determine the item you receive. I fail to see how that is not a RNG loot system.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Random means equal chance at each outcome.

That’s where I basically stopped reading.

For any non-infinite sample size random means random. Full stop. Every “pattern” you see is expectable. If they didn’t occur, it wouldn’t be random.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Halvorn.9831:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Random means equal chance at each outcome.

That’s where I basically stopped reading.

For any non-infinite sample size random means random. Full stop. Every “pattern” you see is expectable. If they didn’t occur, it wouldn’t be random.

Posts like this show why Miku’s logic is so harmful. He stops reading my post after I give the proper definition of the word “random.”

This is just laughable:

“Every “pattern” you see is expectable."

By your very definition RNG literally cannot exist, as it it impossible for a computer to generate a truly and 100% random number
(heck even a cointoss or dice roll is actually truely random, granted they are very close but not truely random)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rIy0xY99a0

Edit: Not to mention that you got a EXTREMELY low sample size, now go get a 1000+ (and even then it is kinda low but begins to get acceptable) before you start talking about statistics

Derigar.7810:

Is this true? I only get the ones in said attached file.
I’m hoping to get a Berserker ring sometime soon, but it seems like prestine relics will be the way to buy it.

No my friend.

RNG is RNG, and less than 50 runs is in no way in hell a sample size big enough to legitimize a complaint about RNG being broken.

If OP cant understand that despite the numerous posts otherwise, oh well.

Aidan Savage.2078:

RNG is RNG, and less than 50 runs is in no way in hell a sample size big enough to legitimize a complaint about RNG being broken.

If OP cant understand that despite the numerous posts otherwise, oh well.

Head on desk, beating a dead horse etc. etc.

Look at MY sample please. I have many more than 50 runs.

Vague Memory.2817:

I definitely see a pattern in when I get ascended, exotic and rare drops. I will literally get a bunch of these in a row and then nothing for about 2 weeks. The RNG software used in MMOs are usually pretty bad, that being said you ultimately can’t get away from the fact that true RNG doesn’t exist. It can’t be programmed, therefore non-random patterns and sequences will occur. Good RNG programs just make it less visible to us, but it is still there.

Technically you can create true rng , you can’t program it but you can create it using hardware. It’s just far easier to work with pseudo random generators. So yeah it is far more likely that GW2 has no true rng only pseudo rng.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Here it is again for future peoples:

https://dviw3bl0enbyw.cloudfront.net/uploads/forum_attachment/file/177902/Fractals_Rings.png

Euhm you are 1 in 1652159 for getting 15 or more doubles in a set of 84 rings (considering 26 possible rings). I have less chance winning 71332,60€ when playing euromillions .

EDIT: 15 instead of 14 doubles

You are giving me way to much credit here, my kind of thinking? I’m pretty sure most of the people here, read the information, and come to their own conclusions. Regardless of what I say or don’t say, many of the opinions and thoughts stated here are most-likely not a result me saying something… So please, if you have a problem with the train of though that it is an RNG based loot system that’s 100% fine, state that. There is no need to single me out in this type of thinking.

Could you please clarify then, in your opinion has any morpg ever used or had a RNG loot system?

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Look at MY sample please. I have many more than 50 runs.

84 is not any better, and also you dont see you state anywhere when and how many times you didn’t get a ring at all, which likely would break up quite a few of your pairs

There is no reason to believe the RNG isn’t working correctly. It’s one of the simplest parts of the entire game, and is likely a built-in function in the framework they’re using. Once again, statistical outliers do exist, and do not indicate any problem with the system, no matter how badly you want your case to be special.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Look at MY sample please. I have many more than 50 runs.

What, like in “84 is many more than 50”?!?

Once again infracted. Let’s try a third time.

For those of you saying that 84 isn’t enough, can you please give me your statistical power analysis? Do you have any statistical data at all, or are you just making up numbers?

@Andred – there is good reason to believe RNG isn’t working correctly. My data.

@Gummi – Doesn’t matter if we assume “ring rolls” as a subset of drops.

@Miku – As I said before, language matters and “RNG loot” doesn’t give the whole picture and leads to non-thinking posts like “RNG IS RNG LEL U CAN GIT NETHING NE NUMBER OF TIMES NE TIME TRENDS MEAN NOTHING” that we see throughout this thread.

I didn’t see a single non-thinking post like the one you mentioned. People saying it’s RNG isn’t saying or acting how you are depicting it. However RNG loot is the correct term, language does matter, and the term RNG loot is the correct language and usage for this type of loot system.

A system which is primarily determined by random number generation is a RNG loot system.

Miku.6297:

I didn’t see a single non-thinking post like the one you mentioned. People saying it’s RNG isn’t saying or acting how you are depicting it. However RNG loot is the correct term, language does matter, and the term RNG loot is the correct language and usage for this type of loot system.

A system which is primarily determined by random number generation is a RNG loot system.

Half the posts on here are “RNG IS RNG.” Non-thinking, mystical, hand-waving.

RNG loot may be the term in common parlance. It’s a bad term, doesn’t convey the whole picture, and the loot in this game is weighted based on tables, not primarily based on a RNG.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Miku.6297:

I didn’t see a single non-thinking post like the one you mentioned. People saying it’s RNG isn’t saying or acting how you are depicting it. However RNG loot is the correct term, language does matter, and the term RNG loot is the correct language and usage for this type of loot system.

A system which is primarily determined by random number generation is a RNG loot system.

Half the posts on here are “RNG IS RNG.” Non-thinking, mystical, hand-waving.

RNG loot may be the term in common parlance. It’s a bad term, doesn’t convey the whole picture, and the loot in this game is weighted based on tables, not primarily based on a RNG.

Well on that logic every single one of your posts pretty much is “RNG in this game is wrong”

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

For those of you saying that 84 isn’t enough, can you please give me your statistical power analysis? Do you have any statistical data at all, or are you just making up numbers?

Like I said you’re 1 in 1652159 to get 15 or more doubles in a 84 test case with 26 rings. GW2 sold in it’s first year more then 3500000 copies. So it’s not that impossibleto happen if you think about it. The fact that it is you, well that’s just bad luck.

GummiBear.2756:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Miku.6297:

I didn’t see a single non-thinking post like the one you mentioned. People saying it’s RNG isn’t saying or acting how you are depicting it. However RNG loot is the correct term, language does matter, and the term RNG loot is the correct language and usage for this type of loot system.

A system which is primarily determined by random number generation is a RNG loot system.

Half the posts on here are “RNG IS RNG.” Non-thinking, mystical, hand-waving.

RNG loot may be the term in common parlance. It’s a bad term, doesn’t convey the whole picture, and the loot in this game is weighted based on tables, not primarily based on a RNG.

Well on that logic every single one of your posts pretty much is “RNG in this game is wrong”

Sure, if you ignore my math.

Tim.6450:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

For those of you saying that 84 isn’t enough, can you please give me your statistical power analysis? Do you have any statistical data at all, or are you just making up numbers?

Like I said you’re 1 in 1652159 to get 15 or more doubles in a 84 test case with 26 rings. GW2 sold in it’s first year more then 3500000 copies. So it’s not that impossibleto happen if you think about it. The fact that it is you, well that’s just bad luck.

Can you show your math? I used a binomial probability calculator with 42 trials and 8 repeats to get odds of 99.98% chance I should get less than 8 repeats.

Also, the fact that other people tend to get repeats too indicates it’s not just me.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Half the posts on here are “RNG IS RNG.” Non-thinking, mystical, hand-waving.
RNG loot may be the term in common parlance. It’s a bad term, doesn’t convey the whole picture, and the loot in this game is weighted based on tables, not primarily based on a RNG.

Pretty sure no one, said anything about non-thinking, mystical, hand-waving. That’s just the label and description you have broadly applied to myself and others who say it’s RNG.

Just because the odds of getting something are higher then the odds of getting something else, doesn’t mean it’s not a RNG loot system.

No one is saying that you have equal chances of getting every item, in fact I have said MANY times you have a higher chance of getting certain items then others. So the odds of getting the item are weighted, that does not mean the Random Number Generator doesn’t work. It’s the commonly excepted way RNG loot works.

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Tim.6450:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

For those of you saying that 84 isn’t enough, can you please give me your statistical power analysis? Do you have any statistical data at all, or are you just making up numbers?

Like I said you’re 1 in 1652159 to get 15 or more doubles in a 84 test case with 26 rings. GW2 sold in it’s first year more then 3500000 copies. So it’s not that impossibleto happen if you think about it. The fact that it is you, well that’s just bad luck.

Can you show your math? I used a binomial probability calculator with 42 trials and 8 repeats to get odds of 99.98% chance I should get less than 8 repeats.

Also, the fact that other people tend to get repeats too indicate it’s not just me.

Sure:
consider P_n: the probality that you get for getting exactly n doubles in a test with 84 draws and 26 rings to choose from.
now your first draw is unimportant since we talk about doubles so that may be anything. After that you have a 1/26(D for short) chance to get a double and 25/26(U for short) to not get a double. This goes for every draw after the first one. Since we want to calculate the chance of getting n doubles. We want to add the chances of all situations with exactly n D’s.
So P_n = DDDDDDD….UUUUUUU+ UDDDDDD……UUUUU+ … + DDUDUUDUDDUDDDUUD…. + ….. .
Since the multiplication is abelian we can rewrite P_n= (#amount situation with n doubles)* D^n*L^(83-n).
The only thing that we need to calculate is (#amount situation with n doubles) and this can be calculated as 83!/n!/((83-n)!).
Now that we have a formula for P_n we can calculate the probality that you have n or more doubles is P_83+P_82+…+ P_(n+1) + P_n.

That is my mathematical basis for my formula.
For my calculations , I can’t send them since they are made in excell and I can’t post excell files.
That being said I have a screen shot of the results for 1 to 27, the first collum is n, the second P_n, the third is ‘the probality that you have n or more doubles’, and the fourth is ’ you’re 1 in to get n or more doubles’.

I’d rather program this. It gives a better impression.

int run = 1;
do {
int lastRnd = -1;
int doubles = 0;
for (int count = 0; count < 84; count++) {
int rnd = (int) (Math.random() * 26);
if (rnd == lastRnd) {
doubles++;
}
lastRnd = rnd;
}
if (doubles >= 10) {
System.out.println(String.format(“Run Nr: %d, Doubles: %d”, run, doubles));
}
run++;
} while (true);

Make 84 random number between 0 and 25 and count how many times the current one is the same as during the last draw (a “double”). Output whenever there is more than 9 doubles (together with the run nr to get a feeling for how often it happens) among the 84 random numbers. Repeat this forever.

Sample result:

Run Nr: 201, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 1195, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 1877, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 2336, Doubles: 11
Run Nr: 2505, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 3225, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 3501, Doubles: 14
Run Nr: 3615, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 4350, Doubles: 11
Run Nr: 4380, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 4672, Doubles: 11
Run Nr: 6234, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 7821, Doubles: 10
Run Nr: 9148, Doubles: 10

Can you see that? In the first 10000 runs I already have an attempt with 14 doubles.
The reason is that 84 is much too small as a sample size. There is still way too much fluctuation in that. If you choose a sample size of 10000, the number of doubles is much closer to 3.8% (1/26).

RNG loot = using RNG as a step in determining what you get for completing a mission, finishing a dungeon, or killing an enemy.

There is no RNG system that skips the step of randomly picking a number. The chance at any of the number in the system is the same.

The number is then run through an if, then statement. Such as for an RNG system for determining if you get either Ring A or Ring B or nothing using a range of 50: If number is less than 16, gets Ring A, otherwise if less than 31, gets Ring B, otherwise get nothing. You have the highest chances of getting nothing.

And for Fractal rings, there could very well also be multiple RNG steps. One trial to determine if you get a ring or not. Then another to determine what ring you get.

I highly doubt there is an MMO out there that has equal chance of every item possible from an enemy. I great suspect that anything rare or highly sought after would be designed to have the lowest chances. To keep players playing the game in order to obtain it.

Most players for most drops assume that the loot table is designed to not keep players waiting for an indefinite time before a decent majority of them have the desired object. There will be players who get it after 1 run, there will be players who will never get it despite running it hundreds of times. That’s the nature of RNG and outliers will always exist in RNG systems. Without a HIGH number of trials, it’s hard to say with high confidence that something is off.

Tim.6450:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

Tim.6450:

Nevets Crimsonwing.5271:

For those of you saying that 84 isn’t enough, can you please give me your statistical power analysis? Do you have any statistical data at all, or are you just making up numbers?

Like I said you’re 1 in 1652159 to get 15 or more doubles in a 84 test case with 26 rings. GW2 sold in it’s first year more then 3500000 copies. So it’s not that impossibleto happen if you think about it. The fact that it is you, well that’s just bad luck.

Can you show your math? I used a binomial probability calculator with 42 trials and 8 repeats to get odds of 99.98% chance I should get less than 8 repeats.

Also, the fact that other people tend to get repeats too indicate it’s not just me.

Sure:
consider P_n: the probality that you get for getting exactly n doubles in a test with 84 draws and 26 rings to choose from.
now your first draw is unimportant since we talk about doubles so that may be anything. After that you have a 1/26(D for short) chance to get a double and 25/26(U for short) to not get a double. This goes for every draw after the first one. Since we want to calculate the chance of getting n doubles. We want to add the chances of all situations with exactly n D’s.
So P_n = DDDDDDD….UUUUUUU+ UDDDDDD……UUUUU+ … + DDUDUUDUDDUDDDUUD…. + ….. .
Since the multiplication is abelian we can rewrite P_n= (#amount situation with n doubles)* D^n*L^(83-n).
The only thing that we need to calculate is (#amount situation with n doubles) and this can be calculated as 83!/n!/((83-n)!).
Now that we have a formula for P_n we can calculate the probality that you have n or more doubles is P_83+P_82+…+ P_(n+1) + P_n.

That is my mathematical basis for my formula.
For my calculations , I can’t send them since they are made in excell and I can’t post excell files.
That being said I have a screen shot of the results for 1 to 27, the first collum is n, the second P_n, the third is ‘the probality that you have n or more doubles’, and the fourth is ’ you’re 1 in to get n or more doubles’.

Awesome, thank you so much.

So, if I’m reading this properly you’ve calculated the cumulative probability of getting 15 or more doubles out of 84, not just exactly total of 15.

Perhaps you can explain one more thing to me – why would this model be preferable to a model where you view 2 drops as a “trial” and count successes as 2 of the same rings (with odds of 1 in 26) and a failure as 2 different rings (25/26). Under this model you’d have 42 trials, 8 successes.

http://stattrek.com/online-calculator/binomial.aspx

Under this model you get a kitten prob of 8 or more of 1 in about 6,000 which seems a lot more likely to be “RNG is RNG” than 1 in a 1.6 million.

Thoughts?