100,000 Trick-or-Treat Bags 2016

100,000 Trick-or-Treat Bags 2016

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Posted by: Mystic.5934

Mystic.5934

I’ve opened 100,000 Trick-or-Treat Bags and recorded the results:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1rBDap38cNQDWlbuNxRRHxTvstfeDfou9_dWJMsA-j2o/pubhtml
the total for each row is over on the right
note: the output is that total number I received, not how many times it was received
further note: one of the potential drops from ToT bags is 13 ToT bags… since they just get added to the stack I’m opening as I’m opening them, it’s hard to tell where the original ones end and the new ones begin. So, I’m just opening the ones that come out as well and including those results in the totals.

Noteable drops:
4 unopened endless bottle of batwing brew
16 Poly-luminescent Undulating Refractors
5 Gifts
58 exotic weapons
4 mini charles the hellfire skeleton

I also updated the drop rates over at GW2Profits Bag Tool
currently, looks like ToT bags are worth about 5s21c (when all outputs are sold, after tax)

on the far right, I also compare the drops to last year’s drop research.
in general, about 5% less this year (but more things are able to drop, so about equal value).
but some things are significantly different:
20% less T6 mats
60% less festive transom
23% less total exotic weapons
80% less mini devil dogs
50% more mini zuzu
22% less gifts
38% less total poly refractors

unfortunately, I didn’t get a large enough sample size to get good drop rates for a few of the items (endless potions, recipes, exotics, minis, gifts, refractors), so if anyone records their own drops, I’d love to add it into these.

(edited by Mystic.5934)

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Posted by: Greener.6204

Greener.6204

I can only say how grateful I am for you to go and do this!

G R E E N E R

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Posted by: Black Iris Flowers.3418

Black Iris Flowers.3418

Where did you get 100,000 ToT bags? Just farming and buying? because kitten

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Posted by: maxwelgm.4315

maxwelgm.4315

Wow you got like no infusions at all. Compared to baubble infusions which you can buy (I should have bought them, kitten it), and the ghostly ones you can drop from gors and/or buy from glenna/TP, that must be like the rarest infusion by a loooong stretch. I wonder if it’s intended…

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Posted by: Malediktus.3740

Malediktus.3740

Wow you got like no infusions at all. Compared to baubble infusions which you can buy (I should have bought them, kitten it), and the ghostly ones you can drop from gors and/or buy from glenna/TP, that must be like the rarest infusion by a loooong stretch. I wonder if it’s intended…

bauble infusions are one (one red, one blue) per account from tribulation mode achievements, they arent buyable. People who have duplicates cheated the customer support

One of my 30 accounts (Malediktus.9250).

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Posted by: Mystic.5934

Mystic.5934

Where did you get 100,000 ToT bags? Just farming and buying? because kitten

got about 750 while completing achievements. bought the rest (their price will probably go down now that I’m not buying them anymore, and people know they aren’t worth as much). listed almost everything on the TP.

Wow you got like no infusions at all.

I was tempted to take those things off the list :P you sure they even can drop?

anyone have any ideas of what to do with 3 alts full of dragonite and empyreal?

(edited by Mystic.5934)

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Posted by: maxwelgm.4315

maxwelgm.4315

@Malediktus:Well that’s good and bad to know at the same time! So the +stats+AR infusions are all equally “hard” apparently. Just find it sad that the refractors are jewels so you can’t really apply them to ascended stuff (or can you?), which makes them pretty much something to wear on LA.

@Mystic: Some guy was on LA showcasing 5 of them from ~3500 bags; I assume they can drop because, what other way is there? Mystic Forge recipe or something? He had the aura too so it wasn’t just pinging randomly. I would say you’re unlucky but 100 000 bags is already bordering the law of large numbers (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) and if none dropped, well kitten that’s a low appearance rate, so low I guess it wouldn’t hurt for Anet to reveal it :P

(edited by maxwelgm.4315)

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

This is awesome, Mystic! Thanks for another super-useful post.

See also the same data presented on Reddit by colbymg (who, I am only just realizing, must be none other than our own Mystic.5934!).

https://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/586ber/opening_tot_bags_for_science/

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Anka.5086

Anka.5086

This guy must be lying to prevent other players from buying ToT. He must’ve got at least few Phospholuminescent Infusion. Few friends of mine opened around 5k and they got 2. This guy should have got more than 10-20.
Think about it for a second; precursors have somewhere around 0.79% with 2901 trials chance of dropping. You mean to tell me this item has lower drop chance than precursor? 100,000 ToT= less than 0.00001% chance. Haha! Good try. Don’t believe this guy.

(edited by Anka.5086)

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Posted by: Mystic.5934

Mystic.5934

I would say you’re unlucky but 100 000 bags is already bordering the law of large numbers

I always seem to be. Last time I opened ToT bags this happened with Mini Gwynefyrdd. wiki research says 4 in 324,067 so I assume these infusions are as rare if not rarer. so not getting one from only 100k isn’t the most unbelieveable thing to happen (I calculate it to be 29.1% chance of not getting one from 100k bags).

See also the same data presented on Reddit by colbymg (who, I am only just realizing, must be none other than our own Mystic.5934!).

hehe, that is indeed me. either that or I’m the most obvious plagiariser on the planet. but it has been funny to see it pop up elsewhere as an answer to questions or something.

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Posted by: Malediktus.3740

Malediktus.3740

Law of large numbers definitely does not apply at 100k bags if there are drops that have around 1 in 100k or lower chance.
It would barely be enough to verify items with 1 in 10k chance

One of my 30 accounts (Malediktus.9250).

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Posted by: fishball.7204

fishball.7204

I opened 71k ToT bag and got

- 16 polys (4 black, 6 green, 3 orange, 3 teal)
- 2 endless batwing
- 3 gifts (1 of each)
- 2 legendary luck
- 2 mini charles

Just adding some data in this thread, didn’t really bother recording every single drop.

I will note that the exo weps from last year dropped wayyyy lower this year but they’re still pretty worthless on the TP.

FOR THE GREEEEEEEEEEEEN

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Posted by: Mystic.5934

Mystic.5934

Law of large numbers definitely does not apply at 100k bags if there are drops that have around 1 in 100k or lower chance.
It would barely be enough to verify items with 1 in 10k chance

I usually look at how many dropped to determine significance:
1 dropped? drop rate is hella low, but can’t say how low just yet
5 dropped? the rate is somewhat established
10 dropped? not horrible, but not good
20 dropped? getting there
50 dropped? pretty good
100 dropped? this is fairly indicitive of the actual rate
1,000 dropped? we got this
300,000 dropped? this is the actual rate

the great thing about this system is that it doesn’t matter what the sample size is :P
however it does matter how many drop at once. this got me in trouble with the amalgamated gemstones that give 10; I presented it as 10x as compelling as it actually was (5000 instead of 500). so keep that in mind

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Posted by: fishball.7204

fishball.7204

This guy must be lying to prevent other players from buying ToT. He must’ve got at least few Phospholuminescent Infusion. Few friends of mine opened around 5k and they got 2. This guy should have got more than 10-20.
Think about it for a second; precursors have somewhere around 0.79% with 2901 trials chance of dropping. You mean to tell me this item has lower drop chance than precursor? 100,000 ToT= less than 0.00001% chance. Haha! Good try. Don’t believe this guy.

lol. I know Enko from LOD opened over 60k bags too and didn’t get infusion. I opened 71k got none and I’m sure mystic doesn’t lie, he’s rich and wouldn’t need to do this to get ‘ahead’.

Just cuz someone got lucky doesn’t mean the rate is that high, each bag is independent RNG roll so you could in theory open a million and not get it.

If you think precursors are lowest rate in the game, ghost dog is a lot lower. I opened 363k ToT bags before to get it, I even posted it on reddit with all my findings and I think that’s partly why it was buyable the year after tbh.

FOR THE GREEEEEEEEEEEEN

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Posted by: Mystic.5934

Mystic.5934

and I’m sure mystic doesn’t lie, he’s rich and wouldn’t need to do this to get ‘ahead’.

I do it so gw2profits gets the drop rates faster usually when I find new drop rate data, it’s profitable (happened with dyes several months ago). this time, not so much. if it was profitable, I’d probably have gone for 200k or higher

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

This guy must be lying to prevent other players from buying ToT. He must’ve got at least few Phospholuminescent Infusion. Few friends of mine opened around 5k and they got 2. This guy should have got more than 10-20.
Think about it for a second; precursors have somewhere around 0.79% with 2901 trials chance of dropping. You mean to tell me this item has lower drop chance than precursor? 100,000 ToT= less than 0.00001% chance. Haha! Good try. Don’t believe this guy.

Mystic (and colbymg on reddit) have been posting for years about things economic and drop rates. They are definitely more reliable than someone posting a tinfoil hat theory about how something can’t possibly have a lower drop rate than something else.

Plus, the analysis above is flawed. The precursor drop rate of 0.79% is for combing 4 exotics — that already increases the rate by a large factor compared to forging 4 rares and either rate is significantly larger than the drop rate in the wild, since we all know people who complain of having played for years without seeing one drop. We have absolutely no documentation about the drop rate of precursors from dead foes.

A better comparison would be the drop rate of precursors from champ bags, because we have data on that. One redditor posted 25,000 drops, which resulted in 127 exotics. Unsurprisingly, no precursors. Accordingly, it’s quite plausible that the drop rate of precursors is far, far worse than 1:100k.

tl;dr I believe mystic not because mystic says “trust me”, but because this poster has a long track record of being helpful and accurate. Mystic has something to lose by misleading us, much more than the short-term gain they’d get by keeping the price a single infusion high.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Muusic.2967

Muusic.2967

Law of large numbers definitely does not apply at 100k bags if there are drops that have around 1 in 100k or lower chance.
It would barely be enough to verify items with 1 in 10k chance

And there it is…..

Be who you are and say what you feel for those who mind dont matter and those who matter dont mind
~Dr. Seuss

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Posted by: Talek.6795

Talek.6795

@Mystic thank you very much for that info!

Talék