Guild Wars 2

Fror.2163:

Sirendor.1394:

Math error

If you have an item with 3% chance and you are guaranteed to get it after your 11th try, it’s not a 3% chance anymore: it’s a 9% chance (or actually bigger, because I don’t wanna do maths and I know it’d be bigger)!!

This is incorrect, unfortunately. Having run about 30K major runes and sigils through the forge, there is NO method to the madness of RNG, it is completely random. So random that I have pulled 2 Lyssas in a row as well as 2 divinities and 2 travelers. What are the odds of that? Well beyond realistic. Am I just lucky? No, I provided enough material to actually see the generator cough up things that were worthwhile.

In my mystic forging, with major runes, the longest streak I have gone without a superior is 22 casts. 88 major runes are about 4 gold. 4g without anything but I continue to do it because over time and quantity, I win out, every time.

The BLTP chests are the same exact thing. You need to open thousands in order to gather a true return. Problem is, who spends thousands of real dollars to get those 1000 keys? 200X450 gems=90000 gems. There is no scaling price on gems (meaning I don’t get more if I spend more) so 2000 gems is $35 US. 90000/2000 = 45 sets of 2000 gems. $35X45 = $1575US to open 1000 chests. Kitten that, I’ll see you at the forge.

Skugga.5298:

Slowpoke.2749:

To the people telling the poster that chests should be avoided at all costs: if everyone took that advice then you would have no skins to buy off of the TP. Some people take the initiative to gamble so you lot wouldn’t have to.

I can agree that it can be fun to gamble, but when real money comes in between I would advice them not to do it.
The price of those keys are way too expensive to even think about buying them, I really don’t get people who do so.
After the few keys I have gotten due to my personal story I’ve already noticed how bad those chests are….

^^^^This!!!!!!!!

If the chest had a higher chance of something good, more people would try them. Or the keys should be cheaper, much cheaper.

Pie Flavor.1647:

who will gamble 6000g on the toilet to get no precursors,

spends 6000g trying to get precursor, couldve bought 2 -3 legendaries with the money instead

LOL

Alice.8694:

Blame Valve, they’re the jerks who normalised this behavior in the west with their crates/keys within Team Fortress 2.

Black Lion Chests are exploitative in nature and for shame on Arenanet for using skinners box triggers to earn money.

This sort of behavior actually comes from Nexon and MapleStory. Nexon bought a 15% interest in NCSoft and ArenaNet installed Crystin Cox as their monetization person. Cox also happens to be the one responsible for many of the decisions that made MapleStory’s cash shop infamous.