Guild Wars 2

if there are infinite bank slots, i’m sure the price will go up higher……

Heizero.9183:

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Trading_Post

^It is inflation. the more players that spend gold for gems, the more it rises. the more that buy gems with money, the more the exchange rate drops…simple.

You know what? I find it very hard to believe that that’s the full story. Minute-on-minute fluctuations may be down to player transactions, but I am convinced that ANet has a back-door input as well.

Why? Well (and I admit, this is a single specific observation, but I’ve seen similar before)… For the last week, the cost for 100 gems has been sliding, bouncing along at about 6g 50s on my server. Suddenly, at midnight on a Thursday, server time, the price shot up to 8g, and has been in that area ever since. That’s an increase of getting on for 25%.

Now – clearly someone could have cashed in a shed-load of cash for gems. Just possibly even a couple of players. But more than that? Highly improbable. And enough to change the price that much? All I can say is, if one or two player transactions can change prices that much, the gem price is way too sensitive to individual transactions. As for the timing of the price shift – very suspicious. No – far more likely, in my mind, that someone at the server end simply tweaked a setting.

I have to point out, too, that it’s in ANet’s interest to have that sort of control, and use it from time to time (and that, if I were designing a game such as this, I’d certainly build that control in). Because if they raise the price of gems, they make them harder to come by with in-game money alone. And gold-to-gem swaps are lost income to ANet; by contrast, and provided they don’t drive people away from the game in the process, hiking prices to make gems scarcer means more people spending real money to get them.

Nice use of the tin hat.

zenleto.6179:

Nice use of the tin hat.

If you mean tin-foil hat – not really, it was just an observation that ANet have a good reason to have input to the prices from time to time, even if they haven’t come out and said so, and just may have chosen to use it. Even if that were the case, I wouldn’t have a problem with it (apart from the obvious gripe that that I missed out on a lower gem price, but that’s mere frustration).

(Frankly, I’d be amazed if the code wasn’t at least written to let them tweak prices if they needed to; that would have put the whole economy of the unreleased game, and ANet’s income, entirely at the mercy of future player behaviour.)

The increase is because of the new years sales. unlimited Royal Pass and character slots were very desirable thus spiking the prices over the top. And today gathering tools and makeover kits will keep those prices high.

P.S. Do you by any chance happen to main a necromancer?

Taku.6352:

The increase is because of the new years sales. unlimited Royal Pass and character slots were very desirable thus spiking the prices over the top. And today gathering tools and makeover kits will keep those prices high.

P.S. Do you by any chance happen to main a necromancer?

Ah, that would account for it. It may be hard to believe, given the splash on the BLTC front page, but I failed to notice the sales completely, somehow. Probably because I’ve usually clicked on the side tab before the front page loads. (It would have been nice to take advantage of them to pick up a few “cheap” character slots – but then again, with the parallel hike in gem prices, the overall cost would have been pretty much the same… guess I’ll wait for the sales to pass and see what prices do.)

I don’t really have a main. Level 80s of all professions – and my necro is one of my go-to characters, and the only one I have world completion on to date – but I’m mostly a boring, solo PvE-er.

Anet doesn’t interfere in the gem/gold trade feature. The spikes are predictable and occur because of supply/demand fluctuations. For example, gold-to-gems spikes when new things are added to the gem shop or things go on sale, because a lot of players want to buy stuff using the gold they already have.

Last month it dropped slightly when the volume of gems-to-gold went up from people buying gems with real money to get the free gifts. They had a few thousand gems but not a lot of stuff to spend it on so a lot of people converted it to gold instead.

tolunart.2095:

Anet doesn’t interfere in the gem/gold trade feature.

proof?

You can’t prove the negative. If someone wishes to accuse Anet of manipulating the rates, they must prove it. The default is that there is no manipulation.

tolunart.2095:

You can’t prove the negative. If someone wishes to accuse Anet of manipulating the rates, they must prove it. The default is that there is no manipulation.

I would assume the default would be a modest “I don’t know” or at minimum a “probably not” but you just seemed so sure I thought you had proof.

This is ultimately the problem with allowing players to acquire gold with real money… it’s part of the business plan, but not something I favor in my MMOs. It’s the main reason I don’t play the game.

They are tweaking the market and have said so in an article back in Sept. What that means could be anything, with most assumptions being they added things to affect the market (up values of mats by addition of lucrative recipes), but the gem to gold conversion rate may have been part of it. /shrug.

As for the whole conspiracy theorist/“cynical realist” debate… let it rest. Anyone who thinks our RL or in game economy is a direct result of supply and demand is as much kidding themselves as anyone who think every irregularity in the market is proof of insider trading. Play the game if its fun, play something else if its not.

Doghouse.1562:

zenleto.6179:

Nice use of the tin hat.

If you mean tin-foil hat – not really, it was just an observation that ANet have a good reason to have input to the prices from time to time, even if they haven’t come out and said so, and just may have chosen to use it. Even if that were the case, I wouldn’t have a problem with it (apart from the obvious gripe that that I missed out on a lower gem price, but that’s mere frustration).

(Frankly, I’d be amazed if the code wasn’t at least written to let them tweak prices if they needed to; that would have put the whole economy of the unreleased game, and ANet’s income, entirely at the mercy of future player behaviour.)

Actually yeah, that’s what I meant. It was my last post before going to bed.

Not saying you’re right or wrong either; the post just came across as a little paranoid

milo.6942:

tolunart.2095:

Anet doesn’t interfere in the gem/gold trade feature.

proof?

To me, common sense is the proof. The price of gems via gold follows the exact path of price of gems cost for real money. Both of which fluctuate based on the value of items in the gem store generally. Similarly to the manner that prices adjusted strongly when ascended gear came out and players were using real money to buy gems to acquire more gold for the materials, consequently the price of gems for gold dropped in turn. The more people buy gems with real money, the cheaper the prices get for purchases with gold. When less people are spending real money for gems, the price of gold per gems goes up. This gives higher value to the gems to gold ratio, offering more gold to the real money users, to entice more real money purchases.

Gold to Gem rate dropped likely because of the influx of 4000 gem purchases with cash to get Mr Sparkles that were then, at least some, exchanged for gold. It stayed steady because there simply wasn’t anything all that attractive on the exchange since the 11th that hadn’t been bought by those wanting it. Then this weekend sale started and BOOM, rates shoot back up. Unless something new comes available Monday or Tuesday, I will expect that we’ll see the rate stabilize or decay until the Jan 21st patch (baring any new sales).

How many times does it need to be explained that the exchange rate is based on the amount of gold and gems in the exchange and that the exchange was founded with a limited, but initially huge, amount of gems. Without gem sellers the exchange can in theory run out of gems, but as the number of gems decrease, the exchange rate will start to go astronomical which in turn should drive players into selling gems, preferably gems bought with cash.

So when something new and attractive comes on to the market, loads of players cash in gold for gems, which causes the rate to rapidly increase. This leaves players without enought gold to convert to decide if they really want it then they will need to either buy gems with cash, or come to the forums to complain, or both. And as a bonus the exchange rate the other way, gems to gold, also increase and just maybe some players choose to buy gems with cash to get gold. ANet wants cash sales. It’s the purpose of the cash shop.

So all ANet needs to do is cycle through these boom/bust cycles where there isn’t stuff we want on the exchange, in hopes we simply dump our excess gems for gold and then come out with the really popular stuff, catching us without the gems we need to buy these items. Or like what they did this weekend with loads of popular returning items, so many most players simply won’t have enough gems to get everything.

It’s the sad fact of a Cash Shop that you need to drive players to it rather than simply offer the same stuff every day of every month with the occasional new item. Retail learned long ago that limit offers and sales are what drive people through the doors. Honestly how many people here by full price games on Steam? No it’s only during these sales when Steam brings in large amounts of money. Same thing works for our Cash Shop. The only difference is we can “earn” some of our currency in game. And the only “manipulation” is when ANet offers sales on old popular items, discontinue currently popular items or offer something much desired at the Cash Shop.

The exchange rate dropped back down today when it turned out that today’s sale was the Aetherblade armor skins. Not surprising, seeing as how Character/Bank/Bag slots are the biggest sellers, followed by the convenience items.

The big question mark is will gem prices continue their upward march in 2014? Or is 6 – 8g the new equilibrium for the foreseeable future?

I don’t really care about gem store features beside transmutation crystals. At the moment I’m cornered since I can’t afford any more of them and as a casual player it will probably be impossible for me to get them without buying gems for real money.

I’d like ANet to consider allowing players to get transmutation crystals somehow without involving gems. This feature is so basic that in my opinion should be more accessible since, as mentioned before, new players simply CAN’T access this without paying real money.

TomEdo.4185:

I’d like ANet to consider allowing players to get transmutation crystals somehow without involving gems.

You can get some as zone completion rewards.

GrandmaFunk.3052:

TomEdo.4185:

I’d like ANet to consider allowing players to get transmutation crystals somehow without involving gems.

You can get some as zone completion rewards.

RNG is always supposed to not be a way of obtaining.

Technically speaking I could obtain 20 precursors in a row and solve my gold problems for a year, but that’s not how it works.

Heizero.9183:

In queen’s gauntlet players were making 100g+ a day EASY. Now that new sales are up in gem store, they are USING that gold to convert to gems, therefore causing the xchange rate to rise. It is basic economics. The more gold that enters the market, the less it is worth. How do people not understand this?

Holy god average players were making 100g daily?!?! Your server crashed all the other then!!! IT is Queens Gauntlets FAULT!!!

if you don’t like the RNG route, you use gold→gems.

options!

Lankybird.8149:

Heizero.9183:

In queen’s gauntlet players were making 100g+ a day EASY. Now that new sales are up in gem store, they are USING that gold to convert to gems, therefore causing the xchange rate to rise. It is basic economics. The more gold that enters the market, the less it is worth. How do people not understand this?

Holy god average players were making 100g daily?!?! Your server crashed all the other then!!! IT is Queens Gauntlets FAULT!!!

Sarcasm is the refuge of a shallow mind, if you have a counterargument, please expose it instead of hiding behind a veil of sarcasm.

Nuka Cola.8520:

Gehenna.3625:

Nuka Cola.8520:

right now its 18 gems for 1g… At these prices people defending gem store with their bs comments such as “Anet is giving you choice of buying stuff with dollars or in game money” becomes irrelevant, completely irrelevant. wtf will happen in 4 months? 3 gems for 1g? i mean what in the kittend of bullkitten is this? Anet is pretty much forcing you to spend real dollars if you want to buy anything on their store.

Spend real cash or grind your kitten off….sounds about right.

I already spent $60 for the game and if they want more it’ll be for an expansion, not the overpriced gem store where they’re selling you an ugly mini for $5. I remember when 1g was over 100 gems and when it got under 100 gem i was like wtf? Now its 18 gem for 1g, now i can really say wtf and where is this going? will this seriously reach 1gem=1g and they will allow this to happen? that’s funny

Now, 5 months later it’s 11 gems for 1g

At this rate, In another 5 months we might see 2 gems = 1g

Farmers == inflation

Zerg farming —> more loot —> more gold —> gems lose value

Pie Flavor.1647:

Lankybird.8149:

Heizero.9183:

In queen’s gauntlet players were making 100g+ a day EASY. Now that new sales are up in gem store, they are USING that gold to convert to gems, therefore causing the xchange rate to rise. It is basic economics. The more gold that enters the market, the less it is worth. How do people not understand this?

Holy god average players were making 100g daily?!?! Your server crashed all the other then!!! IT is Queens Gauntlets FAULT!!!

Sarcasm is the refuge of a shallow mind, if you have a counterargument, please expose it instead of hiding behind a veil of sarcasm.

Sarcasm is the refuge of a shallow mind? Haha what is there to counter? This is a pretty stupid question in the first place, as many said already it is the market, nothing to explain nothing to argue 1+1=2 and supply=demand. Do you guys want some econ 101 or just looking for someone to agree with you that it is unfair prices have gone up? If you want every other little new skin that pops out you need to spend real money to get it. It is what it is. In good news pie tasting pie is still going for like 10 copper.

Mosharn.8357:

Will anyone bother buying them when they hit 10g per 100 gems?

I will. Most likely. It depends. I mostly buy gems for the salvage kits (they often give higher profits when salvaging exotics, such as when trying to get rune of divinity). I would definitely spend them on something else shiny in the gem store if I want it, but 10g per 100 is not that bad. Even 20g per 100 is doable for me. I’m kinda at the point where if I want it, I get it, then figure out the ‘how’ later.

Lankybird.8149:

Holy god average players were making 100g daily?!?! Your server crashed all the other then!!! IT is Queens Gauntlets FAULT!!!

Farming queen’s gauntlet gave 10g-20g/hour. Don’t envy them. It was more boring than champ train. It was basically soloing a champ that respawned 5 seconds after it died. 10 silver per kill. That’s 100-200 kills per hour. Then they without warning reduced that 10 silver per bag to zero. Lots of people had thousands of the bags that became worthless.

Lilius.9850:

Now, 5 months later it’s 11 gems for 1g

At this rate, In another 5 months we might see 2 gems = 1g

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Will-Gold-to-Gem-costs-ever-be-regulated/first#post3151996
“100 gems will cost 14g on May 1 2014 (today is 11/5/13)”
I would say gem price inflation has slowed since I posted that… probably will be closer to 10g on May 1.

I love when someone necro’s a thread, then I reply to it like everything’s normal, then realize it was kitten old

milo.6942:

I would assume the default would be a modest “I don’t know” or at minimum a “probably not” but you just seemed so sure I thought you had proof.

If your qualification for knowing something requires absolute proof, I would venture to guess you know very little.

Another problem is the weakness of gem ‘sales’

10% off is an insult