Guild Wars 2

Sam Gem.1246:

Guys, after 35 attempts today, I got the spark.
Final results are for the dagger:
Attempts: 1088
Exotics received: 218
Legendaries received: 1
Exotic drop rate: 20.04%
Legendary drop rate: 0.09%

Annoyingly, I had prepared all the mats to go to war. Now I’ll have to sell some of it and keep the inscriptions…

Using my jsfiddle, and with the values of found here: http://jsfiddle.net/a6qpsso5/13/
4000 copper for rare value
32000 copper for exotic value

I’m in the money apparently. My spark was 50 gold less than the TP one.

grats, you are now free of the mystic forge, until next time!

phys.7689:

Sam Gem.1246:

Guys, after 35 attempts today, I got the spark.
Final results are for the dagger:
Attempts: 1088
Exotics received: 218
Legendaries received: 1
Exotic drop rate: 20.04%
Legendary drop rate: 0.09%

Annoyingly, I had prepared all the mats to go to war. Now I’ll have to sell some of it and keep the inscriptions…

Using my jsfiddle, and with the values of found here: http://jsfiddle.net/a6qpsso5/13/
4000 copper for rare value
32000 copper for exotic value

I’m in the money apparently. My spark was 50 gold less than the TP one.

grats, you are now free of the mystic forge, until next time!

Actually, the only reason I’d go back is for money, since I would never by a precursor worth less than the cost of the mats required to make one, and I have all the expensive ones except for the greatsword, which I plan on buying Eternity.

Ensign.2189:

Buttercup.5871:

If you have the knowledge to explain to me why a pseudo RNG system is not problematic for the manner in which this game uses it, I’m all ears, I truly am. But if not, please stop trolling.

- Any high quality pRNG system has an extraordinarily long period in comparison to the segment of it used; we’re talking you could be pulling a million billion numbers from it per second and you’d reach the heat death of the universe before you got through only a tiny fraction of its period. Repeating is really a non-issue.

- In a multi-player game like GW2 you don’t have a personal pRNG stream for every player, but a shared thread that multiple players draw from whenever needed – and as the numbers you personally observed are not sequential due to the human inputs and you don’t have any knowledge of those inputs, the numbers you personally observe are very close to truly random.

- The random numbers being pulled aren’t for a single purpose, but for many purposes – critical hit chances, damage variances, item drops, AI, forges. All of these are drawing random numbers, interspersed, which makes observation of any one in isolation extremely non-deterministic, for the same reasons as multiple users.

- Furthermore, GW2 needs to draw enough random numbers that there are almost certainly multiple random number generating threads running in parallel so that the game never has to ‘wait’ on the number generator or pulls the same number twice when two different users want one at the same time. When you personally want to generate a number, you could be pulling from any of the random number generators – you won’t know which.

- The previous three points inject so much uncertainty into the output that it doesn’t even matter if the underlying random number generator is a good one. Even a really terrible, short cyclical table of numbers is going to kick out truly random numbers if you have enough users querying it at uncertain intervals.

pRNG has known flaws to randomness, but those flaws are massively overstated by the hobbyist, and are largely mitigated in a multi-user environment. I don’t doubt that your concerns are sincere, but the examples of concerns you were offering really are hyperbolic caricatures that really aren’t applicable at all to real systems.

This, sir, saves me a lot of typing I wanted to do this morning

Should be made publicly available for reference purposes. Read and understand, fellow players.

Sam Gem.1246:

Guys, after 35 attempts today, I got the spark.
Final results are for the dagger:
Attempts: 1088
Exotics received: 218
Legendaries received: 1
Exotic drop rate: 20.04%
Legendary drop rate: 0.09%

Annoyingly, I had prepared all the mats to go to war. Now I’ll have to sell some of it and keep the inscriptions…

Using my jsfiddle, and with the values of found here: http://jsfiddle.net/a6qpsso5/13/
4000 copper for rare value
32000 copper for exotic value

I’m in the money apparently. My spark was 50 gold less than the TP one.

According to yourself, you shouldnt even be in game anymore, so its probably a bug.

Apophenia.

The experience of seeing meaningful patterns or connections in random or meaningless data.

1) lexiphanicism

The use of pretentious words or language to convey one’s point.

2) the Internet

Empowering users to spread garbage around the world since 1982.

What the heck, was this thread really only much ado about nothing?
Next time, can you wait with posting until after you’ve gotten your precursor?

Sam Gem.1246:

I’m a logic person. After buying 3 precursors, I have done the math, using statistics and the experience of other people to persuade myself to use the mystic forge instead of buying the precursors. Basically, the odds of getting a pre is .2 % from rares. Using a cumulative binomial calculator, the odds of getting 1 or more pre from 350 attempts is 50%….
Well, after 1100 attempts, I’ve convinced myself to quit. I know.. 100 trolls will say good ridden. Whatever. I’ll never buy an Anet game or all other affiliates. You have wasted my time enough already…

hahahahahahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahahahhahahahahahhahahahhahaahahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahhahahahahhahahahhahahahhahahaha

I’ve been throwing rares and exotics into the mystic toilet for over two years now and still haven’t seen a precursor. No idea how much I’ve chucked in there and if it wasn’t for you guys, I’d be thinking they were a myth.

Do I want to quit? No. I’m quietly cursing the Gods of RNG but I’ll stick around for a bit longer.

Should I stop with the mystic toilet? Probably… because it occurs to me that if it wasn’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.

Will I stop? Hmm… Maybe just one more attempt, because you never know, this next time might be the one.

Cazamar.7148:

Posts like this make me laugh. I used to deal blackjack and it always amused me when someone would lose then get more money to “win it back” then lose again. Then they would get all upset at me and/or the Casino. I always wanted to tell them that there is no one behind them holding a gun to their head.

That’s why you should always start with enough money to do progressive betting.

Blackjack is my jam.

My god,

You are a whiny…

Averages do not imply certainty. And if you think they do, you can’t math bro.

You want 100% drop rates? Grab a Nintendo & play Final Fantasy I.

Otherwise, grind like the rest of us & realize your precursor chances are just as bad as all of ours. When the dice rolls in your favor, then it’s a good day. Until then, welcome to the crowd.

SmudgerUK.4715:

Should I stop with the mystic toilet? Probably… because it occurs to me that if it wasn’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.

Here is an interesting question: if you look at the precursors in the TP, how many do come from regular drops and how many do come from the MF?

Personally I have no clue but I have the slight feeling the majority is from the MF.

Halvorn.9831:

SmudgerUK.4715:

Should I stop with the mystic toilet? Probably… because it occurs to me that if it wasn’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all.

Here is an interesting question: if you look at the precursors in the TP, how many do come from regular drops and how many do come from the MF?

Personally I have no clue but I have the slight feeling the majority is from the MF.

I’ve had 3 Precursors so far (2 this past week!).

Of those 3, 2 were from the MF (I was just unlocking skins, not trying to forge anything) and 1 was from a champion bag.

Now you have my anecdote.

So you’re dumping the game because you gambled away all your money and items and lost..

great logic xD

there is a good reason it’s called the Mystic Toilet

You have nobody to blame but yourself
nobody blames a slot machine for stealing their quaters so don’t blame a RNG system for loosing all your money..

it was your decision to gamble and you lost.. you’ll just have to deal with that sorry

Instead of buying rares/exotics off of the TP- just do dungeons & cash in the tokens for weapons that can be thrown into the mystic forge. You make more gold that way, from what? Doing dungeons. The only thing that would be wasted is time. But you’ll have lots of gold & only downfall is you have to wait for a reset to repeat your dungeon cycle.