Guild Wars 2

Maybe, but not quite so obvious. The prices of alcohol and presents has been slowly falling over the last week. As we start approaching the end of the event, many people have decided it’s just not going to happen, so there is a massive increase in supply over demand. A lot of people who are going for it are now getting it, again reducing demand, and those same people are now thinking they would want some of that 800+ gold back and farming presents is currently the best way. Don’t expect prices to rocket, most people who don’t have it by the end will just wait until next year rather than pay even more than the current stupid price that thing costs.

Prices may go up after, but I am betting the price is just going to go down over then next 9 days

Kirschsahne.2081:

Do you really expect people to share their investment secrets with you ????

Won’t happen.
But common sense would suggest that the immense demand for wintersday alcohol will be same or increasing.
Opposite to that alcohol will not be available anymore.
It’s painfully obvious what that means for alcohol prices.

Alcohol prices will slowly fall during the next few days, reach an all-time high just before wintersday ends, and then drop to an all-time low and stay there until December ’16.

There’s almost no alcohol supply after Wintersday ends, and everyone knows that.
So everyone that really wants to have that skin will get their 10.000 drinks before Wintersday ends.
The people that aren’t sure if they can get it will save all their drinks until the end, and then either decide to buy the remaining drinks from TP before Wintersday ends, or sell all their drinks to make a ton of gold instead.
The people that do not want the skin will sell all their drinks anyway.
New people cannot even start the collection.
And even less people are interested in snowflakes during spring.

tl;dr There’s almost no demand for alcohol after Wintersday, prices will crash.

And even less people are interested in snowflakes during spring.

^This.

An effect only valid during ‘winter’. Which is now. And 10K drinks for that crap ? Seriously ? I can understand ppl going for achievements, but for a totally unimpressive effect or skin… in my personal opinion, it’s rediculous.

As far as the investment goes, there is none. Sell it while you can, because once the last day has passed you’ll be losing cash fast.

Sthenith.5196:

As far as the investment goes, there is none. Sell it while you can, because once the last day has passed you’ll be losing cash fast.

I treated the discussion about “Wooo, you’ll all be immensely rich if you hold back now!” the same way I treat a call from my bank: “Get rid of the recommended stuff even before he hung up!”

Personally I think the prices will go up.
Imagine this scenario:
100 players have been on a holiday away of their pc during this Xmas period.
They all come back after the event and decide they want the shoulders, so they each buy 10k presents. This would take a million away of the existing offered supply in the TP.

So I think this will happen a lot and predict the price doubling in a month or two.

On the other hand, there have been a serious amount of bots farming the puzzle. Most of them go nuts when they get in a bugged instance after the new map is full.
So there may be a huge stash waiting to be sold in the bank of these hackers.

It’s pretty much one big gamble.

Craray.2603:

Imagine this scenario:
100 players have been on a holiday away of their pc during this Xmas period.
They all come back after the event and decide they want the shoulders, so they each buy 10k presents. This would take a million away of the existing offered supply in the TP.

So I think this will happen a lot and predict the price doubling in a month or two.

Those players won’t even be able to unlock the collection, because the required item cannot be bought anymore!
And even if they could, they’ll be unable to finish 60% of said collection, because all the achievements are gone.

AzureSky.3175:

Craray.2603:

Imagine this scenario:
100 players have been on a holiday away of their pc during this Xmas period.
They all come back after the event and decide they want the shoulders, so they each buy 10k presents. This would take a million away of the existing offered supply in the TP.

So I think this will happen a lot and predict the price doubling in a month or two.

Those players won’t even be able to unlock the collection, because the required item cannot be bought anymore!
And even if they could, they’ll be unable to finish 60% of said collection, because all the achievements are gone.

That’s actually a good point about not being able to unlock the collection…

Craray.2603:

That’s actually a good point about not being able to unlock the collection…

Of course I could be completely wrong :/ I’m just making assumptions, maybe the prices will rise insanely after Wintersday ends for some reason, I just don’t think they will…

https://www.reddit.com/r/gw2economy/?count=25&after=t3_3x7f43

A lot of market/economics talk there, provably the best place to discuss/get answers.

Yes people who decide after Wintersday is over that they want Winter’s Presence will be out of luck, however the people who focused on doing everything else needed for it over the last few weeks and just need the Imbiber achievement to finish will be able to work on it after Wintersday is over so there will still be some demand for the drinks.