Salvaging rares-exos gives less Ectos now ?

Salvaging rares-exos gives less Ectos now ?

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Posted by: Enko.6123

Enko.6123

Exactly what are you considering a relatively small number of ectos tracked?

Something I probably need to check is 10k rares using mystic salvage kits (though I’m out of forge stones . ..) vs 10k rares using silver fed.

1000-1500 salvage sessions were usually spot on around the average before. I probably switched to a Silver Fed sometime in May or June. I’d have to go through some older videos or any screenshots I have to see if I still had any mystic forge stones in my bank or not.

After pulling the numbers for the past month, again as I said, I’m either having a bad streak, Silver Fed has a slightly lower rate, or Anet lowered the drops. I’m more inclined to think its a bad streak and trust that the Silver-Fed has the same stated rates as a Mystic’s or Master’s and I really doubt that Anet changed the rates.

I don’t isolate the rares I’m salvaging by levels, just know that they’re 68+ and then sort by light, medium, heavy so I can track the material drop rates from them as well. It could very well be that lvl 80s have a slightly higher chance and I’ve just been getting more of the lower level ones.

(edited by Enko.6123)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

I don’t isolate the rares I’m salvaging by levels, just know that they’re 68+ and then sort by light, medium, heavy so I can track the material drop rates from them as well.

Just chipping in here that different armor pieces have a different average return on common mats, a chestpiece gives more than gloves, for example.
But i guess you knew that already and not only mark the weight of the armor you are salvaging but also which piece of gear.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Enko.6123

Enko.6123

I don’t isolate the rares I’m salvaging by levels, just know that they’re 68+ and then sort by light, medium, heavy so I can track the material drop rates from them as well.

Just chipping in here that different armor pieces have a different average return on common mats, a chestpiece gives more than gloves, for example.
But i guess you knew that already and not only mark the weight of the armor you are salvaging but also which piece of gear.

I know that it does. Since I was more interested in the ecto drop rates, I just average the salvage mats to see if they line up with previously calculated chest vs other pieces. Takes up too much time to organize by type beyond weight category. The first 20,000 salvages were sorted by each individual type and when I get rares in large quantities, the time it takes to sort them by type isn’t worth it.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

I don’t isolate the rares I’m salvaging by levels, just know that they’re 68+ and then sort by light, medium, heavy so I can track the material drop rates from them as well.

Just chipping in here that different armor pieces have a different average return on common mats, a chestpiece gives more than gloves, for example.
But i guess you knew that already and not only mark the weight of the armor you are salvaging but also which piece of gear.

I know that it does. Since I was more interested in the ecto drop rates, I just average the salvage mats to see if they line up with previously calculated chest vs other pieces. Takes up too much time to organize by type beyond weight category. The first 20,000 salvages were sorted by each individual type and when I get rares in large quantities, the time it takes to sort them by type isn’t worth it.

Yeah, i stopped tracking common mats after 50k salvages. I mostly salvage trinkets these days anyways. When I salvaged alot of armor/weapons, it was mostly to buff my luck in the early days.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances

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Posted by: Just a flesh wound.3589

Just a flesh wound.3589

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

That’s nothing. I could have had that amount of money.

But Wanze wouldn’t give it to me. >.>

Be careful what you ask for
ANet may give it to you.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Enko.6123

Enko.6123

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

I definitely like that we have a Load More Items button now. When they got rid of the pages, it was pretty annoying to have to cancel your most recent orders to get at your older orders.

Now, I usually put in orders for around 2000g at a time. The delay on the TP sometimes is really the only annoying thing now. Though I do my orders again generally every 6 hours since the majority of it fills by then.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

38 + 27 = 65.

That’s realistically “possible,” but the odds are still a couple hundred million to one of that happening.

I don’t have a quick and easy way to get an exact answer for the odds of getting 65 or less ectos from 100 rares, but it’s an easy thing to get a pretty good answer to with a Monte Carlo simulation. Using the odds I posted earlier (11/24 chance of 1 ecto, 1/12 of 2, 1/12 of 3, 0.875 expectation) I ran a quick million simulations of salvaging a hundred rares.

The odds of getting 65 or fewer ectos from 100 rares, based on the above numbers, is around 1 in 210.

Certainly a result a bit out of the ordinary, but common enough that it happens to people every day when everything is working as intended.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

I definitely like that we have a Load More Items button now. When they got rid of the pages, it was pretty annoying to have to cancel your most recent orders to get at your older orders.

Now, I usually put in orders for around 2000g at a time. The delay on the TP sometimes is really the only annoying thing now. Though I do my orders again generally every 6 hours since the majority of it fills by then.

What helped me save the most time was creating a shopping list in my current buy orders tab.

I canceled all my buy orders and then put in 1 each minimum value buy order for the items i regularly bid on or which values i want to check on a regular basis.
Now i can just click on each item on my list and place my bids without having to use the search function, which saves quite alot of typing.

I also realized that if you want to cancel a buy order, if you click right of the cancel button, it cancels it without having to click confirm, which comes in handy, if ysou placed alot of buy orders that didnt fill.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Enko.6123

Enko.6123

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

I definitely like that we have a Load More Items button now. When they got rid of the pages, it was pretty annoying to have to cancel your most recent orders to get at your older orders.

Now, I usually put in orders for around 2000g at a time. The delay on the TP sometimes is really the only annoying thing now. Though I do my orders again generally every 6 hours since the majority of it fills by then.

What helped me save the most time was creating a shopping list in my current buy orders tab.

I canceled all my buy orders and then put in 1 each minimum value buy order for the items i regularly bid on or which values i want to check on a regular basis.
Now i can just click on each item on my list and place my bids without having to use the search function, which saves quite alot of typing.

I also realized that if you want to cancel a buy order, if you click right of the cancel button, it cancels it without having to click confirm, which comes in handy, if ysou placed alot of buy orders that didnt fill.

Yup do both already.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

Exactly what are you considering a relatively small number of ectos tracked?

1000-1500 salvage sessions were usually spot on around the average before.

I um, misread your salvage attempts in June as 859 rather than what you posted (8,594).

In any case, I’m not saying the hypothesis is “false” that ecto rates are slightly different for silver-fed. I am saying that standard variations in 1,000/month would easily explain it.

For those who don’t routinely track their rates or don’t do it in the volumes posted by Wanze or Enko, here’s a series of 10 samples of 1,000 salvages (assuming the same rate for all 68+ rares, which we know to be false). Assuming rates per Magalad of .3742/0, .4517/1, .0835/2, & .0890/3 for a weighted average of .8857
867 -> 865 -> 879 -> 900 -> 846 ->
869 -> 896 -> 899 -> 885 -> 917

That includes the minimum of 846e/1000 rares and maximum of 917e/1000, all using the same drop rates. That’s consistent with what Enko reported for June 6 – July 8 (0.8451), without considering the possibility of a rate difference due to Silver-Fed or the actual rate being changed.

Further, past evidence suggests different rates for L68 vs L80 rares, so I would expect even more variance for those of us salvaging a variety of levels, among other variables for which my simulations don’t account.

tl;dr 84% rate on 1,000 salvages is consistent with the same drop rates we saw in 2014, given the simplifications we make about the drop rate. It is therefore unlikely that there is a different rate for Silver-Fed or that the rate itself has changed.


Incidentally, my simulation tracks “best” and “worst” streaks of 10 or 20 salvages.

  • 2e out of 10 rares is not at all unusual.
  • 8e out of 20 is also common.
  • The worst streak of “no ecto” is often 9, i.e. you can salvage 9 in a row without getting any, and still end up with better-than-average over 1,000 salvages.

Those “facts” won’t be a surprise to anyone with the math/stats background or any of those salvaging 100s or 1,000s of ectos in a session; I hope they are some use to those who are wondering if the rate has changed or if they are just unlucky (answer: you are just unlucky).

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

To save time, you should consider more higher risk, higher value flipping. Instead of flipping 100 items for a 1 Gold profit, just flip 1 item instead. I’ve been doing the same item for weeks now, and I get 1 to 1.3 Gold per single flip. It’s helped me offset my major losses from Ecto gambling. The only risk as the moment is competition for my Buy Orders.

On a side note, I really REALLY hope you’re not the one who kept outbidding me for the Queen Bee. It’s like I had to update my offers every 30 seconds for at least an hour.

In GW2, Trading Post plays you!

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Posted by: azizul.8469

azizul.8469

i notice the same. they deny nerfing ecto drop rate, but i get less ecto now that’s fact.

Cutie Phantasmer/Farinas [HAX] – CD Casual
Archeage = Farmville with PK

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

i notice the same. they deny nerfing ecto drop rate, but i get less ecto now that’s fact.

I got thousands of ectos from salvaging. Perhaps you only think you get less, because you don’t salvage enough?

In GW2, Trading Post plays you!

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Posted by: fixit.7189

fixit.7189

I am averaging 1 ecto per 4 salvages…just dinged 9 and didn’t get a single one. People say it’s impossible yet it happens to me consitantly so why so bad luck on the salvages yet it don’t effect other people in this thread?

(edited by fixit.7189)

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Posted by: Basandra Skye.4031

Basandra Skye.4031

All I know is I only get 1 exto per 4 salvages at most. I went 9x tonight no ecto from lvl 80 rares using mystic kit…this happens every day. People say it’s impossible and they will never understand unless I give them access to account which I won’t be doing so I guess this is a stalemate. This, possibly might be a BUG with certain accounts or just hyper bad ‘luck’ on my part. People state all these facts from one or two guys but did they increase their testing pool by using many different accounts rather than just one?

Accounts have no impact on ANYTHING regarding RNG. The claim is pure tinfoil hattery and people know it.

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Posted by: Just a flesh wound.3589

Just a flesh wound.3589

I am averaging 1 ecto per 4 salvages…just dinged 9 and didn’t get a single one. People say it’s impossible yet it happens to me consitantly so why so bad luck on the salvages yet it don’t effect other people in this thread?

Maybe you could salvage a thousand rares, either at one time or over a period of time, and keep records of what you’ve gotten. Then at the end either post on this thread or make a new thread to report your findings. Just to say that you get one out of 4 without numbers, well, it isn’t very helpful.

Be careful what you ask for
ANet may give it to you.

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Posted by: fixit.7189

fixit.7189

edit. i get less than average…this is apparent. If you believe me or not I really don’t care no more. I do not have 1000s of gold to throw around like you people do so any form of ‘proof’ you require will take months so what ever I am done replying.

(edited by fixit.7189)

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Posted by: Just a flesh wound.3589

Just a flesh wound.3589

edit. i get less than average…this is apparent. If you believe me or not I really don’t care no more. I am done. Bye.

Well, how about 50 rares. That would take a day or two if you get 20 to 30 a day.

And, no. I don’t have all that much gold myself but I could probably get and salvage that many.

Edit: well, ok. Goodbye. /shrug.

Be careful what you ask for
ANet may give it to you.

(edited by Just a flesh wound.3589)

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Posted by: Grover.8753

Grover.8753

I’ve noticed it too. 9/10 rares I got from Lab Chest in SW would give at least 1 ecto. I now go through about 5 or 6 before I get one. Of course this thread is going to get filled by all the same people who love to deny people by saying things such as “evidence, numbers, RNG, or proof”. Observation is observation regardless of what others think or say. And if they did do something they wouldn’t tell you or it would be unintentional . Just like they didn’t tell you that modrem hearts were awarding 10k crests.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

I am averaging 1 ecto per 4 salvages…just dinged 9 and didn’t get a single one. People say it’s impossible yet it happens to me consitantly so why so bad luck on the salvages yet it don’t effect other people in this thread?

i notice the same. they deny nerfing ecto drop rate, but i get less ecto now that’s fact.

edit. i get less than average…this is apparent.

I’ve noticed it too. 9/10 rares I got from Lab Chest in SW would give at least 1 ecto. I now go through about 5 or 6 before I get one. Of course this thread is going to get filled by all the same people who love to deny people by saying things such as “evidence, numbers, RNG, or proof”. Observation is observation regardless of what others think or say. And if they did do something they wouldn’t tell you or it would be unintentional . Just like they didn’t tell you that modrem hearts were awarding 10k crests.

Observation is certainly observation, regardless of what others think or say. The problem is that people are making the claim without actually doing much observing.

Here are some “facts” about salvage rates:

  • It is not unusual to get 0 ecto from 9 rares in a row, even if your personal rate is 10% better than expected.
  • 4/10 is a common occurrence.

Humans are terrible about keeping track of rates of random events: we hope for lucky results and we think of “average” as what we “should” get — thus we discount average and even slightly better than average results, give undue importance to below average results, and have trouble considering all the evidence we’ve seen.

It’s just not enough to say you’re getting too few ecto, it’s important to actually track how many until you have data on 500 or 1,000 rares. Even then, the rate we experience varies enough so that even people who salvage all the time sometimes confuse recognizing ordinary bad luck with rate variations.

tl;dr our perception fools us into thinking we are seeing a changed rate when all that’s happening is we’re experiencing a normal run of bad luck. If you want to show you’re getting abnormally low rates, keep track.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Jeez….Wanze’s TP totals are just humbling….he’s paid about 10x in TP fees than I have ever seen….

Thats just from the last 3 months though as the API only tracks 90 days of sale and purchase history and only from 1 account.

And my trading volume went up alot since the TP UI remake as it made alot of things easier.

Before that, I was usually playing around with only 200-400g in gold and not more than 30 different buy orders, otherwise it got too time consuming to update them.
Now I usually have around 1000g and 100 different items im buying.

To save time, you should consider more higher risk, higher value flipping. Instead of flipping 100 items for a 1 Gold profit, just flip 1 item instead. I’ve been doing the same item for weeks now, and I get 1 to 1.3 Gold per single flip. It’s helped me offset my major losses from Ecto gambling. The only risk as the moment is competition for my Buy Orders.

On a side note, I really REALLY hope you’re not the one who kept outbidding me for the Queen Bee. It’s like I had to update my offers every 30 seconds for at least an hour.

I actually dont flip that much, most of my purchases are investments, containers, items i salvage or crafting mats i use to craft to make a profit.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Here are some “facts” about salvage rates:

  • It is not unusual to get 0 ecto from 9 rares in a row, even if your personal rate is 10% better than expected.
  • 4/10 is a common occurrence.

While 0 out of 9 is possible but it’s a very, very rare outcome, 1 out of 6819.

4 out of 10 is “common”. I just did a monte carlo sim of salvaging 10 ectos, 300 times and 4 was 4.33%. Also got one 2 and one 18. I’m using Ensign’s probabilities.

Now those 300 trials gave me an average of 8.923. Ensign’s average would be 8.75.

13.67% returned 5 or less. 41.67% had 10 or more.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Enko.6123

Enko.6123

I actually dont flip that much, most of my purchases are investments, containers, items i salvage or crafting mats i use to craft to make a profit.

Same. Flipping takes too long to get a return a lot of the time. I’d rather get profits that have a quick turn around.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

Here are some “facts” about salvage rates:

  • It is not unusual to get 0 ecto from 9 rares in a row, even if your personal rate is 10% better than expected.
  • 4/10 is a common occurrence.

While 0 out of 9 is possible but it’s a very, very rare outcome, 1 out of 6819.

4 out of 10 is “common”. I just did a monte carlo sim of salvaging 10 ectos, 300 times and 4 was 4.33%. Also got one 2 and one 18. I’m using Ensign’s probabilities.

Now those 300 trials gave me an average of 8.923. Ensign’s average would be 8.75.

13.67% returned 5 or less. 41.67% had 10 or more.

Maybe my word choice was poor for describing the frequency. My monte carlo simulations are 1,000 salvages at a time, using Magalad’s stats. Last night, it showed up in 4 of 10 runs. Just now, in 1 of 15 runs.

My point is: just seeing 0e/9 rares doesn’t mean there’s a change to the drop rate. We might still see it even if the drop rate increased.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Muusic.2967

Muusic.2967

i notice the same. they deny nerfing ecto drop rate, but i get less ecto now that’s fact.

^^^ This exactly^^^

For some reason there’s always 2:1 players posting in favor of RNG working as intended when the topic comes up in forums. Strangely enough it’s usually the same players posting with spreadsheets full of concocted data meant to stifle any posts claiming it is broken or reduced.

Bottom line is that enough of this same group of players respond in rebuttal that Anet never actually has to take the time to address the issue.

Be who you are and say what you feel for those who mind dont matter and those who matter dont mind
~Dr. Seuss

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

i notice the same. they deny nerfing ecto drop rate, but i get less ecto now that’s fact.

^^^ This exactly^^^

For some reason there’s always 2:1 players posting in favor of RNG working as intended when the topic comes up in forums. Strangely enough it’s usually the same players posting with spreadsheets full of concocted data meant to stifle any posts claiming it is broken or reduced.

Bottom line is that enough of this same group of players respond in rebuttal that Anet never actually has to take the time to address the issue.

They dont have to adress this issue because there probably isnt an issue. Most of the time, it actually IS a streak of bad rng of a very small sample from the OP, or the OP failed to collect his data correctly.

I would assume the ecto salvage rate is something that is getting monitored on a regular basis, especially after patches.

And your claim that Anet is never taking any action, is also false.
In January, JS doublechecked the ecto salvage rate (for dust), after someone claimed its broken. It turned out that the OP didnt collect his data correctly and everything was fine.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/Ecto-Salvage-nerfed/first#post4711159
A couple of months later, he checked someones account for hitting diminishing return, which wasnt the case.
https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/gw2/If-you-deny-diminishing-returns-as-a-farmer/page/2

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Smooth Penguin.5294

Smooth Penguin.5294

I’ve noticed it too. 9/10 rares I got from Lab Chest in SW would give at least 1 ecto. I now go through about 5 or 6 before I get one. Of course this thread is going to get filled by all the same people who love to deny people by saying things such as “evidence, numbers, RNG, or proof”. Observation is observation regardless of what others think or say. And if they did do something they wouldn’t tell you or it would be unintentional . Just like they didn’t tell you that modrem hearts were awarding 10k crests.

I’m not here to deny what you think you see. What you’re experiencing is Cognitive Bias.

In GW2, Trading Post plays you!