Guild Wars 2

wish they would raises it a little

I had two drops yesterday just bopping around in Harathi for the Ulgoth chain and also doing the The sunless and The shatterer. No sure which ones I gained the Dyes at, But considering I was only on for maybe 2 hours. Not too bad.

The ones that drop sell to the brainless and put that silver to the dyes you need. win win.

I count myself lucky if I find even one dye drop during a day.

I think it’s foolish after everything that has happened to believe that the dye rate increase and drop were accidental.

You don’t accidentally go into the loot tables and change a number of one item to something much higher.

If they just straight out nerfed it, they would have had all of you shouting at them. By “accidentally” increasing it, they gave themselves the benefit of the doubt for you to not hate them. So now nerfing & sustaining the nerf, they still have some of you hoping it will be “fixed”.

We aren’t playing the game, we are getting played.

Clark Skinner.4902:

I think it’s foolish after everything that has happened to believe that the dye rate increase and drop were accidental.

You don’t accidentally go into the loot tables and change a number of one item to something much higher.

If they just straight out nerfed it, they would have had all of you shouting at them. By “accidentally” increasing it, they gave themselves the benefit of the doubt for you to not hate them. So now nerfing & sustaining the nerf, they still have some of you hoping it will be “fixed”.

We aren’t playing the game, we are getting played.

I related that in another thread a while back, but the fanbois don’t see it.

I played all day yesterday on a character that does not have Magic Find, from 6 AM until 4 AM (that’s a 22 hour session), and did not receive a single unidentified dye. 22 hours, and no dye…

They reduced the drop rate to an impossible rate. I am not satisfied. It should be changed.

I suspect there’s another factor impacting our unidentified drop rates. My boyfriend was commenting on how expensive certain crafting materials were and the prices he was quoting me seemed rather high compared to the last time I purchased said items (which was over a month ago). Looking at GW2Spidy at prices for crafting materials, it appears that some crafting materials that are drop dependent (particularly Tier 3-6 mats) are following a VERY similar trend as the unidentified dyes over the past month (massive supply declines, massive price escalations). However, many of those crafting materials that are dependent on gathering are showing stable trends (no massive supply declines, no massive price hikes, etc.).

So if I had to hazard a guess, we’re not actually seeing a nerf on the drop rates for unidentified dyes after all. What we’re seeing is the fallout of the anti-botting measures that have been implemented by ArenaNet. Less bots farming for higher tier items means less supply. And less supply and stable demand means price hikes.

The good news is that with no bots and increasing prices drop-dependent items, everyone will be able to sell their items for far higher prices. Meaning that folks will earn gold at a faster rate than during the first few months of the game. Sure some of this will be offset by having to pay higher prices when players buy items. But folks tend to sell more than buy and the net result will likely be increasing gold in our accounts. Which means that high-price items like Tier 3 cultural armors and certain items needed to craft Legendary weapons (those that are purchased directly from the game, not via player trade) will become more achievable to the common player.

The above might make sense if we were basing this on the prices on the TP. But we’re also experiencing them almost never dropping. Empirical evidence + the TP reflecting a diminished supply.

Clark Skinner.4902:

The above might make sense if we were basing this on the prices on the TP. But we’re also experiencing them almost never dropping. Empirical evidence + the TP reflecting a diminished supply.

I direct you to this post from John Smith, ArenaNet’s economist: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Recent-Market-Shifts/first#post666787

You could give me a free gift card and I still wouldn’t be buying that spin on the facts.

Manoa.5897:

Clark Skinner.4902:

The above might make sense if we were basing this on the prices on the TP. But we’re also experiencing them almost never dropping. Empirical evidence + the TP reflecting a diminished supply.

I direct you to this post from John Smith, ArenaNet’s economist: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Recent-Market-Shifts/first#post666787

Once again, you’re referring to TP prices and not actual farming drops. When I leveled my Ranger, by the time I hit 80, I had about 40 dyes from play through(drops). When I leveled my warrior post “fix”, I am currently level 78 and have gotten 6 dyes, 1 of which was GIVEN to me out of my guild bank because I was pist I didn’t have a decent white dye.

Drop rates have been killed. It’s that simple.

squared.1729:

Manoa.5897:

Clark Skinner.4902:

The above might make sense if we were basing this on the prices on the TP. But we’re also experiencing them almost never dropping. Empirical evidence + the TP reflecting a diminished supply.

I direct you to this post from John Smith, ArenaNet’s economist: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Recent-Market-Shifts/first#post666787

Once again, you’re referring to TP prices and not actual farming drops.

Actually, I was talking about supply (which farming drops are a part) and demand trends earlier in this thread and the price fallout of those trends. Prices are a reflection of the relationship between supply and demand. Since early November, demand has been relatively stable, but supply is down by a LOT. As a result of this change in supply (but stable demand), prices are up by a LOT.

The big question if the hour is why prices are up. The game’s economist indicates that prices were actually deflated as a result of an oversupply caused by botting activities (i.e. overfarming). And the rise in prices is a reflection of supply and demand returning to the levels ArenaNet originally intended without bots (i.e. market balance).

I’m inclined to believe him, as the start of the supply decline (on MANY items, not just unidentified dyes) coincides with the time ArenaNet implemented their anti-botting measures. Not to mention super high-price items like Tier 3 cultural gear, WvW Commander’s Compendium and items needed to craft legendaries make a LOT more sense (i.e. ArenaNet intended us players to achieve more coin through selling items through the market so we could actually achieve these items, but the oversupply from the bots screwed things up for us).

ArenaNet’s been pretty good about reporting when they make changes to drop rates in the patch notes (barring unforseen circumstances like unintended bugs). Including those times that they nerf drop rates on particular items. Until I see large samples of drop rate data that that support claims that drop rates have been nerfed (instead of anecdotal evidence), I’m willing to take our economist’s word on this one. But if you have large samples of drop rate data to analyze that contradict our economist’s take on current supply trends, I’d most certainly love to take a look.

Manoa.5897:

squared.1729:

Manoa.5897:

Clark Skinner.4902:

The above might make sense if we were basing this on the prices on the TP. But we’re also experiencing them almost never dropping. Empirical evidence + the TP reflecting a diminished supply.

I direct you to this post from John Smith, ArenaNet’s economist: https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/Recent-Market-Shifts/first#post666787

Once again, you’re referring to TP prices and not actual farming drops.

Actually, I was talking about supply (which farming drops are a part) and demand trends earlier in this thread and the price fallout of those trends. Prices are a reflection of the relationship between supply and demand. Since early November, demand has been relatively stable, but supply is down by a LOT. As a result of this change in supply (but stable demand), prices are up by a LOT.

The big question if the hour is why prices are up. The game’s economist indicates that prices were actually deflated as a result of an oversupply caused by botting activities (i.e. overfarming). And the rise in prices is a reflection of supply and demand returning to the levels ArenaNet originally intended without bots (i.e. market balance).

I’m inclined to believe him, as the start of the supply decline (on MANY items, not just unidentified dyes) coincides with the time ArenaNet implemented their anti-botting measures. Not to mention super high-price items like Tier 3 cultural gear, WvW Commander’s Compendium and items needed to craft legendaries make a LOT more sense (i.e. ArenaNet intended us players to achieve more coin through selling items through the market so we could actually achieve these items, but the oversupply from the bots screwed things up for us).

ArenaNet’s been pretty good about reporting when they make changes to drop rates in the patch notes (barring unforseen circumstances like bugs). Until I see large samples of drop rate data that that support claims that drop rates have been nerfed (instead of anecdotal evidence), I’m willing to take our economist’s word on this one. But if you have large samples of drop rate data to analyze that contradict our economist’s take on current supply trends, I’d most certainly love to take a look.

PvE through the entire leveling experience with a 40 to 5 difference is quite certainly a large gap. I don’t keep logs, as such a thing should be clearly evident; as most of the community has felt.

Maybe it has something to do with account infractions. I’m sure I have at least 4-5 on my account while I have been leveling my Warrior and none on my Ranger at the time. If we traveled down this road, it would clearly begin to delve into conspiracy theories, which I don’t believe is the case. Although it would certainly clear a few things up if it was the case.

It doesn’t matter to me what any ArenaNet paid employee economist tells me about the TP, since the bottom line is the actual drop rates which are effecting it. Sure, no bots around, supply is going to go down; that still doesn’t account for the fact that after the “fix”, normal play through’s are seeing a 88% reduction in unidentified drop rates. A percentage drop I’ve personally witnessed as well as many many others.

squared.1729:

Sure, no bots around, supply is going to go down; that still doesn’t account for the fact that after the “fix”, normal play through’s are seeing a 88% reduction in unidentified drop rates. A percentage drop I’ve personally witnessed as well as many many others.

I’d love to see a source for that 88% number. If that 88% is from your own personal estimates/observations, one player does not a representative sampling make.

And if you want to get into anecdotal observations, I very, very rarely saw unidentified dyes drops on most of my characters prior to the drop rate increase bug (the vast majority of dyes that I have were purchased via BLTC). That unidentified dye drop rate bug was like an early Wintersday for my characters. And the levels I’m now seeing feel very akin to what I experienced during the first two months of the game. ‘Cause I’m always on the loosing side of random loot tables (or so it feels).

Yes, that 88% drop is my own experience. All the people I play with and talk with on vent say the same thing about not seeing nearly as many dye drops as before the “fix” to the “mistake”. Do they have actual numbers? No, probably not. I’m the only one I know that re-rolled an entirely new character after it happened. I’m sure there are others out there that could compare how many natural dye drops they got on one character before the “fix” and how many on a new toon afterwards. I’m sure the amount of people would be small though (although the Nov patch did piss off enough Rangers to force them into re-rolling, so who knows).

I have to say I haven’t noticed any particular change in the dye drop rate since the fix/nerf. Last weekend I found a total of 4 dyes on Saturday, and another 3 on Sunday. I got another one last night during 1.5 hours of play. This is roughly consistent with the drop rates I was seeing back when I first started playing, perhaps a bit lower.

The thing is, most of my dye is found via harvesting from plant nodes. It is very, very rare for me to actually get one from a slain enemy. I’m not sure if the people reporting low drop rates of dyes are also harvesting frequently in PvE, or whether they are focusing purely on dropping enemies.

if you really think logically about it regardless of the slight nerf to drop rates the main reason for big drop is that there are alot less players in zones farming as they are all sitting in LA waiting for a dungeon run.

I would assume that each area would be controlled by a separate drop equation with the loot specific to that area calculated in, so less players interacting with that equation the higher the rate of randomness to drops would occur.

less ppl =less drop rate of a particular loot

more ppl = higher chance of gain said loot

that how I see it, thats when u need to go somewhere alot off ppl are at,
I farm the events in cursed shores and have a pretty good chance of getting at least 1 dye a nite for the 2hrs I am on

phabby.8945:

if you really think logically about it regardless of the slight nerf to drop rates the main reason for big drop is that there are alot less players in zones farming as they are all sitting in LA waiting for a dungeon run.

I would assume that each area would be controlled by a separate drop equation with the loot specific to that area calculated in, so less players interacting with that equation the higher the rate of randomness to drops would occur.

less ppl =less drop rate of a particular loot

more ppl = higher chance of gain said loot

that how I see it, thats when u need to go somewhere alot off ppl are at,
I farm the events in cursed shores and have a pretty good chance of getting at least 1 dye a nite for the 2hrs I am on

That would likely be the case IF the decline in supply occurred after The Lost Shores released. However, the majority of the supply decline occurred between November 5th and November 12 (as observed by the sell listing volume 1 day moving average). Post bug patch, the unidentified dye supply, demand and price trends followed a VERY similar trend to what other high-demand drop-rate dependent items were also experiencing on the market since early November (when ArenaNet implemented their anti-botting measures).

Supply trends since November 12th have remained relatively level (with fluctuations, of course…but no wild swings). No wild supply swing post-Lost Shores means that it is unlikely that the cause is the Lost Shores event and any content introduced by it.

But you are certainly correct that less people means less loot drops. And less loot drops means less supply in the economy. There are a TON less “people” (bots) in the game, which means the total number of drops in the game as a whole has declined and our economy isn’t being flooded with their goods anymore. Oversupply caused by bots deflates prices. Taking bots out of the equation means supply and demand reaches the levels that the developers had originally intended and prices rise to the levels the level that the developers had originally intended for us.

I could easily get 2-3 unid dyes per day before the bug that caused dyes to drop often. After they fixed the bug (and probably overcompensated for it), Im lucky if I get 1-2 unid dyes per week… That speaks loads to me. Same issue goes for loot in general (except for in fotm) since the lost shores patch.

I’ve also been getting significantly less in the way of dye since the “fix”.

Now I understand that with the reduction in bots there’d be less on the TP and thus prices would increase a bit, so I could see it topping out at 6-7s, but the 12ish I keep seeing it at is ridiculous.

Have they actually said they’ve basically dealt with the bots? Are they, figuratively speaking, waving a Mission Accomplished banner in the War on Bots?

Because if the bots have been beaten it’s time for DR to die. It was after all intended as a stop gap to prevent bots from damaging the economy by flooding it with stuff while they worked on a more permanent solution right?

Blackwolfe.5649:

I could easily get 2-3 unid dyes per day before the bug that caused dyes to drop often. After they fixed the bug (and probably overcompensated for it), Im lucky if I get 1-2 unid dyes per week… That speaks loads to me. Same issue goes for loot in general (except for in fotm) since the lost shores patch.

^same

and I don’t do FotM and rarely do dungeons. I do my PvE dailies and gathering in high level zones, same as I have always been.

I’ve seen some bots still, they’re just much less obvious now and they don’t travel in huge groups. Look for the same username every day in the same area just killing and running past nodes (if they gather them, they did it ASAP and are now running around the area with nodes cleaned out).

“•Increased chance to get Mini boosters and Dye Pack boosters from the Black Lion Chest.”

Hint hint. Make it harder to get from the TP, make it easier to get from gems.