Guild Wars 2

SkeletalLlama.5381:

It shouldn’t even be possible for someone to spend that much money and time and not receive a precursor. People who work hard in the game shouldn’t go home empty handed. There needs to be a guaranteed way to receive a precursor, even if it’s expensive and time consuming. Legendaries should be a guaranteed reward.

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Nothing unusual, lost 780g on my task to get colossus.

Quise.5628:

all depends on luck

I get three Dusk’s in less than two months.

Dusk No.1 – 12 December 2012 – I spent on him about 50 gold and on the second char still had about 40 rare greatsword. Profit: 550 gold

Dusk No.2 – 29 January 2013 – I spent on him 1560 Ascalonian Tear’s on exotic greatswords and that was all. Profit: 700 gold

Dusk No.3 – 30 January 2013 – I spent on him about 200 gold. Profit: Precursor for my Twilight

Screenshots album: http://imgur.com/a/8qtfD#0

Sir Quise,

How much is your dices? I would like to purchase that pair, please!!!

What Anet should do is what Valve did to fix TF2’s rng when people were going weeks without getting any drops in that game, they put a maximum cap on how long a person could go before a drop would happen. So if you hit the max time cap, you were guaranteed a drop. This cut down on those examples of people who were getting extremely unlucky, which happens in every rng system. There will always be that unfortunate outlier who gets screwed. If Anet did something similar it would really help so someone unlucky doesn’t go and dump 10,000 gold in the mystic forge and just quit the game forever.

I’m amazed ANET thinks this is a good system in the first place.

Let’s be bold here. They had years to work on GW2. In the years of working on this game, not once did it occur this is a stupid idea to make such a horrible RNG simply to start the endgame?

I don’t mind that landing a precursor on average is extremely expensive (let’s say on average 500 gold in its current state). Arenanet has chosen micro-transactions as a business model and thus has to ensure people continue buying gems → gold.

My issues with the system are twofold. One, it is continuously more difficult to get a precursor as time passes. No one will deny that if you were on top of the legendary quest from the beginning you had a much easier time obtaining it than current players, whether it is because precursors were cheap, the karka event, pre “stealth” nerfs etc. How could a legendary hopeful not take offense to the fact that player A waving his legendary around now put 1/5th the effort that he can expect to?

Secondly, using RNG for any part of the process is just flat out irresponsible. Why should one player receive the precursor “on my first try with the mystic forge! lolz” while another spends 550 gold, representing most likely his entire playing career, getting nothing? I really feel for the op as I can only imagine how frustrating that an experience this must have been. Is there any reason not to have a fixed price for fairness to the entire player population? I fear that the only reason is you can stealth nerf RNG to your heart’s content without definitive evidence to the contrary, but the players will quickly notice when that fixed price is suddenly 5 times what it used to be XD.

My solution is to simply not play the RNG game. It is like a casino. If you get short term wins then stop. Take your profit and run. In the long run you will lose. I do stuff that is fun and non-RNG based. Any excess stuff I am willing to convert to something useful I can then throw in the mystic forge. Screw legendaries.

Thank you for your effort. Sorry you lost so much gold/time/effort.

Raf.1078:

ChyrosNX.1834:

Disclaimer: I did this so you don’t have to. And yes, I’m totally broke after this lol.

Set 1, 130 Rare Greatswords, 63g. Result: 12 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 2, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 3, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 4, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 5, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 6, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 7, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 10 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 8, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 9, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 10, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 11, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor

Note: Exotics that I got are sold to TP to buy more rare greatswords. But after 11 tries of no precursor, I said what the heck and use all my leftover exotics to mystic forge as well.

Then the final straw…

Set 12, 32 Exotic Greatswords, (unknown price). Result: Even more exotics to mf, 0 Precursor

Summary

No of Sets: 12 sets within 1 day!
Total gold spent: 552g
Rare Swords: 1760 (incl, rare sword you get from MFing 4 of it)
Combine Count: 440 combines
*Result: * Emotionally damaging / disheartening (LOL! But no kidding!). It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

Lesson learned: Mystic forge can get you rich sometimes or consumes all your hardwork. Learn when to stop. You don’t wanna get lose interest in this superb game after all. Like I said, I did this so you don’t have to.

Hope I helped the community with this information in one way or another.

But just remember…Vegas loves you and wants you back.

I have better RNG odds at Vegas then I do in any MMO -.-

ChyrosNX.1834:

*Result: * Emotionally damaging / disheartening (LOL! But no kidding!). It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

You forgot to add it’s a great reason to say to yourself, “screw this game.”

But don’t worry, they’re busy banning some people who abused a broken recipe, the worst results of which would have at least reduced (albeit only slightly) one of the other major costs on the legendary checklist.

Kain Francois.4328:

I’m amazed ANET thinks this is a good system in the first place.

Let’s be bold here. They had years to work on GW2. In the years of working on this game, not once did it occur this is a stupid idea to make such a horrible RNG simply to start the endgame?

Of course it occurred to them; they want suckers to go dump hundreds on gems to buy the things.

They’d probably make more in the long run by offering something more accessible to the masses, but it’s their own choice to focus on short-term paydays versus a long-term revenue stream.

What happens in the mystic forge, stays in the mystic forge.

In other words “you pays your money you takes your chances”. As for this guy I’ll wait till the scavenger hunt is made and save my coins. 500+ gold is far to much to even consider donating to science of this kind in the name of ego.

eisberg.2379:

Raf.1078:

ChyrosNX.1834:

Disclaimer: I did this so you don’t have to. And yes, I’m totally broke after this lol.

Set 1, 130 Rare Greatswords, 63g. Result: 12 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 2, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 3, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 4, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 5, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 6, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 3 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 7, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 10 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 8, 130 Rare Greatswords, 60g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 9, 130 Rare Greatswords, 59g. Result: 9 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 10, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 7 Exotics, 0 Precursor
Set 11, 130 Rare Greatswords, 61g. Result: 8 Exotics, 0 Precursor

Note: Exotics that I got are sold to TP to buy more rare greatswords. But after 11 tries of no precursor, I said what the heck and use all my leftover exotics to mystic forge as well.

Then the final straw…

Set 12, 32 Exotic Greatswords, (unknown price). Result: Even more exotics to mf, 0 Precursor

Summary

No of Sets: 12 sets within 1 day!
Total gold spent: 552g
Rare Swords: 1760 (incl, rare sword you get from MFing 4 of it)
Combine Count: 440 combines
*Result: * Emotionally damaging / disheartening (LOL! But no kidding!). It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

Lesson learned: Mystic forge can get you rich sometimes or consumes all your hardwork. Learn when to stop. You don’t wanna get lose interest in this superb game after all. Like I said, I did this so you don’t have to.

Hope I helped the community with this information in one way or another.

But just remember…Vegas loves you and wants you back.

I have better RNG odds at Vegas then I do in any MMO -.-

Of course, because the possibility is already there. For example, you play blackjack with 1 deck or 2, 3 decks, you know exactly the possibility of getting an Ace base on what available in the deck and what had come out on the table. They can’t change the possibility while ANet can change the possibility any time they want in the background and we as a players will never detect it until it is too late.

IMO, just boycott the RNG.

Tommyknocker.6089:

As for this guy I’ll wait till the scavenger hunt is made and save my coins.

Is that even happening? Last official word I saw (red post from about two weeks ago) is that they’ve only considered the idea of a scavenger hunt, but no actual work has begun on such a thing.

Did they say something more recent, and something more concrete? Did they give any sort of timeline as to when we can expect it?

Ansultares.1567:

Tommyknocker.6089:

As for this guy I’ll wait till the scavenger hunt is made and save my coins.

Is that even happening? Last official word I saw (red post from about two weeks ago) is that they’ve only considered the idea of a scavenger hunt, but no actual work has begun on such a thing.

Did they say something more recent, and something more concrete? Did they give any sort of timeline as to when we can expect it?

More recent no; even though I did check. However, I would gladly wait a year to save and buy it off the TP before gambling away that much coin. But thankfully some are willing to give their money away. Any good game needs money sinks and a voluntary one doesn’t hurt the general (wiser) population.

edit: clarity

Chuo.4238:

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..

Slither Shade.4782:

First try precursors are no less scientific. Simply add first try guy’s four rares into the op’s sample. So instead of 440 tries and no precursor now its 441 tries and one precursor. Now add in my own 20 tries and its 461 tries and 1 precursor. Calm down!

I hope this is sarcasm. That is definitely not scientific, and is totally invalid. Every thread with a “large” sample size has a bunch of follow-up posts by people who got a precursor within a few tries. You don’t get a bunch of follow-ups from people who hit one after an intermediate number, or people who have accurately tracked a large number. The result of calculating based on people volunteering results in this way results it numbers making it seem much more likely that you will get a precursor.

This is why, if you want to aggregate a bunch of statistics scientifically, the person contributing data has to pick a point at which they will start collecting data, and count the results after that starting point. Check the GW1 wiki for instructions on contributing to the distribution calculations for various RNG items.

The % to get a precursor is roughly 50 exotic attempts. That means somewhere in the range of 180 exotics thrown in.
Whoops my bad I mean
So you threw roughly 30 ish GS + another few attempts which means you were about 10 or so more ajnd you might have got one

Anet should have added the lucky/ unlucky titles to the game. Progression being determined by relatively good and bad drops from the mystic forge. Come to think of it jus the unlucky tile.
The problem with Legendarys is that besides getting the precursor people need to invest a crazy amount of time an effort to make all those other gifts. Having completed all of that and not being able to drop a precursor will only add to frustration, bad blood and rage quitting.
They would have done better to make Legendarys drop in game and not have made them craftable. That way people would not be left with the bitter taste after having invested so much time; effort and in many cases money as well.

A really good example of why I, personally, will never bother with a legendary.

Really, Anet?

There were 20 Dusks 250g each on market after Kraka event. We’re talking about solid numbers on trading post so there was no RNG, and the price stayed for like 3 days.

If you didn’t save up to 250g 2 months ago, you’re not dedicated enough. And if you had the money but didn’t make your move, you’re not smart enough. Either way legendaries aren’t for you, and by you I mean average joes.

OmniPotentes.4817:

Anet should have added the lucky/ unlucky titles to the game. Progression being determined by relatively good and bad drops from the mystic forge. Come to think of it jus the unlucky tile.

I would like to have the unlucky title as “Toilet Lover” for such a bad luck that I have with Mystic Toilet.

Liwi.7896:

There were 20 Dusks 250g each on market after Kraka event. We’re talking about solid numbers on trading post so there was no RNG, and the price stayed for like 3 days.

If you didn’t save up to 250g 2 months ago, you’re not dedicated enough. And if you had the money but didn’t make your move, you’re not smart enough. Either way legendaries aren’t for you, and by you I mean average joes.

You’ve got it all wrong. It’s the so called average Joes who seem to get the lucky drops. Hardcore players buy off the TP or rage quit.

Wasabee.5031:

OmniPotentes.4817:

Anet should have added the lucky/ unlucky titles to the game. Progression being determined by relatively good and bad drops from the mystic forge. Come to think of it jus the unlucky tile.

I would like to have the unlucky title as “Toilet Lover” for such a bad luck that I have with Mystic Toilet.

Are you White Wasabee from GW1? In that case you hold the record for most complete HoM I believe. Your a legend! If I’m correct Anet should just mail you your Legendary. What ever happened to Skill>Time?

were they all rare lvl 80s? Btw, if you want precursors you should be using lvl 80 Exos in the MF. Getting a precursor with rares is more like generous bonus than normal luck.

Liwi.7896:

There were 20 Dusks 250g each on market after Kraka event. We’re talking about solid numbers on trading post so there was no RNG, and the price stayed for like 3 days.

If you didn’t save up to 250g 2 months ago, you’re not dedicated enough. And if you had the money but didn’t make your move, you’re not smart enough. Either way legendaries aren’t for you, and by you I mean average joes.

Lol, what a horrible post. Seriously, so new players should be gouged while others that took advantage of much better drop rates prosper.

How about you just uninstall your game and stop posting, it would make the community better. Anet has made the gold increasingly more difficult to obtain in order to push people to the gem store.

I hate to ask that, but I’m sure you took screenshots and can prove that your research is not an attempt to steer people away from using the MF and buying stupidly overpriced precursors, right?

Serves you right for using rares

This is why I will probably never have a legendary….I refuse to buy gold to afford one. I can’t make the gold in game, every event I go to now I never get tags at all; it’s all dead the instant it spawns. Only way I make gold is grind in some out of the way spot and pray I can get enough DPS on the mob to get a drop. It’s either that or buy gems → gold.

This is only going to get more depressing when Legendaries get better stats than exos in the future and you will have to have one to compete.

I tip my hat to you sir and thank you for this beatifull piece of “science” I’ll also start funding research by mailing you 1g for all your efforts. Not much, I know, but I’m poor and I need those 552g for MY precursor xD

Reverend Doctor.6498:

Syeria.4812:

Epic statistics fail.

The OP conducted this over a miniscule sample size for the purpose of data acquisition. He’s testing for something that presumably has a rate of occurrence significantly below 1% but only has a sample size of about 400. A “massive sample size” would need to be in the tens of thousands at the very least.

I see “massive sample size” posted a lot in regards to statistics and usually it is incorrect. It ultimately depends upon what is attempting to be discerned as to how large the sample size must be. Increases in the sample size reduce error and for particularly low percent occurrences getting the accuracy within an acceptable range can be difficult; trying to determine tenths of a percent when your error is around a whole percent is not terribly useful.

However regardless of how “massive” or “tiny” the sample size, using the P value (confidence interval) we can make conclusions from the above test. The idea that it wasn’t a “massive sample size” so its useless is completely erroneous despite its pervasiveness on online forums.

In this case with a 440 trials with no drops we can say for a P value of .05 that the drop rate is less than .7%.

Now, we can’t really say much else about the drop rate from this test, but there are conclusions that can be drawn.

Inductively, we already knew the drop rate for rares is below 1% and I mentioned as much in my post. My concern here is the frequent misuse of statistics to attempt to convince people of things with an inaccurate appeal to authority. Essentially, here and in other places posters have attempted to claim absolute knowledge of certain behaviors (namely drop rates) based upon “statistical evidence.” However, that statistical evidence is rarely sufficient to justify the claims being made.

Here the premise is that mystic forge attempts at a precursor are not profitable because of the data presented. However, if we assume for a moment that 0.5% is the drop rate for precursors from mystic forge attempts with 4 rare greatswords (which is a very reasonable figure in the light of this test), that would mean on average a drop will occur every 200 combines, or 800 swords (not re-feeding). At current min sell prices, that would be 50s each, or a 400g investment (at max bid, it would be about 36s each or 288g). From 200 combines, using the accepted rate of 20% exotic promotion, on average 160 rares will be produced (value of 80g) along with 39 generic exotics (approximate value of 150g) and 1 precursor (value of 550g Dawn or 700g Dusk). At a drop rate of 0.5% the average profit of creating a greatsword precursor is between 400g and 650g. Repeat that for a drop rate of 0.1% and you find 1000 combines (2000g/1440g) produces 400g worth of rares, 750g worth of exotics, and 550-700g in precursors. That’s still a net profit of 160g (well, technically that’s the TP tax, you’d take an 80g hit on posting fee) on Dawn and 310g profit on Dusk if you’re paying max bid instead of min sale price.

In other words, the OP would not be presenting evidence that creating precursors via the mystic forge is unprofitable unless he demonstrated that the drop rate was 0.1% or lower, which his data is insufficient to provide evidence for. But most people see “he has a lot of data” and decide that it must be true, not just for those rare “unlucky” streaks, but for all situations in general.

/Just a note, yes, I understand that the OP was presenting evidence that it’s “not always profitable” rather than “is not profitable on average.” However, posts like the one that started this mini-thread have run with that claim and applied the logic to all situations because “omg that’s a bunch of numbers, it must prove everything!” That’s what I’m railing against here.

Thats the issue with Precursors; what none of these people who claim that we’re simply crying that we’re not gettingone is the RNG. Its simple math probability (chance). If you have a 75% chance at finding something lets say, its still possible that you will never get it, as it is always a chance. The more failed attempts should bring you closer to getting one and reset after obtaining one.

So for science… what were the levels of the items you used? All 80s? Three seventy-somethings and 1 80? No 80s? Random?

Waiting for scavenger hunt. Or i’d buy outright. No WAY am i touching that kind of RNG.

ChyrosNX.1834:

It’s like going to casino with a lot of cash in hand and then go home empty handed.

Remember people: When going to a casino, the house ALWAYS wins in the end.

You have to hand it to ANet… MF is hands down the best, most effective money sink I have ever seen in a game. Bar none!

For this reason alone I doubt they will be doing anything to lessen its role in the game.

Reverend Doctor.6498:

In this case with a 440 trials with no drops we can say for a P value of .05 that the drop rate is less than .7%.

Statistical analysis of these results are invalid because the sample is biased.

I got 469 gold non farmed. If i lost it i wouldnt care. Don’t even use it anyway nothing i need…yet.

I remember them saying back before the Lost Shores event that they would have introduced new ways to obtain precursors. I just hope they weren’t talking about the Ancient Karka Chest…

The forge however is like a lottery. You probably have a chance in ten thousand to obtain a precursor so I wouldn’t even count on that. Like a scratch and win card, you either get lucky to win the jackpot or unlucky enough to lose all your money if you don’t know when to stop trying.

i got my dusk after 50g for rare lvl 80 gs.

isn’t legendary meant to be the hardest weapon to get of all ?? i think to get precurser you need luck on mystic forge and dragon chest. 550g it’s a shame you didn’t get one Don’t give up !

Mystic Forge is a gold sink, designed to force you to sacrifice untold amounts to the RNG god. While I feel bad for you, Anet has made it pretty clear they like the RNG, and the Mystic Forge is the crown jewel of that crappy system.

Woow dude, over 550G and no precursor? Sounds about right.

You know how bad you screwed up as a game designer when an important component of your game is called a “toilet”.

Wow…all those hard work/time you put in…gone in 1 day.
Sorry for your loss.

I have stopped pursuing the ever increasing precursor price in TP too.
Just attempted 2 Carrion Broadswords, 1 Invader GS, 1 Orrian Longsword of Rage in MF.
Guess what I get in return? 1 Carrion Broadsword. lol

Hail Zommoros!

Vague.1602:

Chuo.4238:

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..

That’s exactly my point.

Problem: Grind your kitten off with RNG.
Solution: Spend real money in the gem store!

They’re not in a hurry to bring prices down. It’s been what, 3 months since the Nov patch? They’re making bank from a few individuals who have the real life money to just buy whatever they want in game. I don’t really think anyone else enters into the equation.

Disagree? Then why is it so bleeding hard to get a precursor? Why is the only guaranteed way to spend money on it? Just an innocent mistake?

Edit: spelling

The Spiral King.2483:

Mystic Forge is a gold sink, designed to force you to sacrifice untold amounts to the RNG god. While I feel bad for you, Anet has made it pretty clear they like the RNG, and the Mystic Forge is the crown jewel of that crappy system.

It’s not a “gold sink” because it doesn’t actually remove gold from the game. It’s far more important than that. It’s an “item sink.” Without these forge recipes, the only thing that would be removing the untold number of rare and exotic weapons from the game would be salvaging for ectos. Keeping everything else the same but removing the forge recipes for precursor would result in ectos and rares flooring out to the point where TP values for rares would just about match vendor values.

The mystic forge’s sole purpose is to reduce the supply of items. If you need an example of its effectiveness in that regard, look how Anet fixed the gross oversupply of common crafting materials with the Mystic Chest.

This isn’t some “obsession with RNG” like people constantly try to make it out to be. It’s Anet’s chosen solution to a massive long-run economic issue. Other MMOs may have different methods for dealing with this issue (WoW’s is primarily handled through enchanting, gear treadmill, and cosmetic options, FFXI had extremely low drop rates for non-consumable items, other games made items “wear out.”) but the combination of mystic forge and salvaging for runes/sigils/ectos/mats is the one this game relies upon.

Chuo.4238:

Vague.1602:

Chuo.4238:

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..

That’s exactly my point.

Problem: Grind your kitten off with RNG.
Solution: Spend real money in the gem store!

They’re not in a hurry to bring prices down. It’s been what, 3 months since the Nov patch? They’re making bank from a few individuals who have the real life money to just buy whatever they want in game. I don’t really think anyone else enters into the equation.

Disagree? Then why is it so bleeding hard to get a precursor? Why is the only guaranteed way to spend money on it? Just an innocent mistake?

Edit: spelling

The constant “gem store” excuse is tiring. Take a look at any of the economics behind it and it’s immediately clear that the gem store has absolutely nothing to do with the situation with precursors. Any developer who makes a game with in game purchases knows that all the money in the market is in small purchases. Sure, there might be a few dozen or even few hundred people willing to pay the $1000+ it would cost to buy a legendary, but there’s very little money in that. If Anet wanted to monetize legendaries, they’d do it with T6 mats or lodestones. “Rare Material Chest – 125 gems for 1 or 450 gems for 5, contains 2 random cores or lodestones.” That would be significantly more profitable than the system people constantly accuse of being an attempt to monetize legendaries. Heck, there’s people on this forum who have explicitly asked that such a thing be added.

Syeria.4812:

Chuo.4238:

Vague.1602:

Chuo.4238:

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..

That’s exactly my point.

Problem: Grind your kitten off with RNG.
Solution: Spend real money in the gem store!

They’re not in a hurry to bring prices down. It’s been what, 3 months since the Nov patch? They’re making bank from a few individuals who have the real life money to just buy whatever they want in game. I don’t really think anyone else enters into the equation.

Disagree? Then why is it so bleeding hard to get a precursor? Why is the only guaranteed way to spend money on it? Just an innocent mistake?

Edit: spelling

The constant “gem store” excuse is tiring. Take a look at any of the economics behind it and it’s immediately clear that the gem store has absolutely nothing to do with the situation with precursors. Any developer who makes a game with in game purchases knows that all the money in the market is in small purchases. Sure, there might be a few dozen or even few hundred people willing to pay the $1000+ it would cost to buy a legendary, but there’s very little money in that. If Anet wanted to monetize legendaries, they’d do it with T6 mats or lodestones. “Rare Material Chest – 125 gems for 1 or 450 gems for 5, contains 2 random cores or lodestones.” That would be significantly more profitable than the system people constantly accuse of being an attempt to monetize legendaries. Heck, there’s people on this forum who have explicitly asked that such a thing be added.

Seems to me if a thousand people spend $1000 USD in the gem store so they can buy a precursor or Legendary, thats, what?

One million dollars.

RNG is an awful and archaic reward mechanism for MMOs.

Token based systems are much more rewarding for both hardcore and casuals alike, and in fact also much simpler loot system to implement.

It just removes the ‘addictive’ (for some) gamble factor which is why some developers still not have fully given themselves to it.

Chuo.4238:

Syeria.4812:

Chuo.4238:

Vague.1602:

Chuo.4238:

There is a guranteed way:

The easy, conveniently provided solution to low-odds RNG is just to buy gems, convert them to gold, and purchase your precursor (or even Legendary!) on the Trading Post.

Things that make ya go “hmmmmmmmm….”

Except for the fact that a lot of the precursors have doubled in price on the TP since the Dev’s said that the price for them before the Nov patch was way to high..

That’s exactly my point.

Problem: Grind your kitten off with RNG.
Solution: Spend real money in the gem store!

They’re not in a hurry to bring prices down. It’s been what, 3 months since the Nov patch? They’re making bank from a few individuals who have the real life money to just buy whatever they want in game. I don’t really think anyone else enters into the equation.

Disagree? Then why is it so bleeding hard to get a precursor? Why is the only guaranteed way to spend money on it? Just an innocent mistake?

Edit: spelling

The constant “gem store” excuse is tiring. Take a look at any of the economics behind it and it’s immediately clear that the gem store has absolutely nothing to do with the situation with precursors. Any developer who makes a game with in game purchases knows that all the money in the market is in small purchases. Sure, there might be a few dozen or even few hundred people willing to pay the $1000+ it would cost to buy a legendary, but there’s very little money in that. If Anet wanted to monetize legendaries, they’d do it with T6 mats or lodestones. “Rare Material Chest – 125 gems for 1 or 450 gems for 5, contains 2 random cores or lodestones.” That would be significantly more profitable than the system people constantly accuse of being an attempt to monetize legendaries. Heck, there’s people on this forum who have explicitly asked that such a thing be added.

Seems to me if a thousand people spend $1000 USD in the gem store so they can buy a precursor or Legendary, thats, what?

One million dollars.

Seems to me that if my aunt had a few different organs she’d be my uncle.

The market for people buying gems to convert to gold to buy a legendary is infinitesimally small. Even within that market, it’s not like Anet has a monopoly as most people purchasing such a large sum would rather violate game rules and purchase through RMT outlets instead. With what I pointed out above, Anet would likely receive repeat business, $5-$50 at a time, many times, from tens or hundreds of thousands of people. It’s a lot better business to take $20 from 20,000 people than $1000 from 200.

These kinds of topics are scaring people away from the game, let’s see how long it’ll take to ANet realize it.