Guild Wars 2

Ayrilana.1396:

Pifil.5193:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Why would players pick maguuma flowers over amalgated gemstones if the price is lower, jsut to up supply and get less money?

That’s not at all what I said (if this was directed at me).

It was just posing an additional question on your theory. It seemed to me to be a huge factor yet you dont seem to mention it.

I did in my first paragraph. I’ll add another sentence at the end to make sure it’s clear.

People would choose them up to the point that they’re equal to amalgamated gemstones. Once they went lower, they’d stop going for them. What will drive the price further down would be the large surplus of supply that’s slow moving due to so few uses. Players would get impatient and undercut each other in order to sell the items rather than have them remain on the TP.

I don’t think that’s likely, removing something from the tp to undercut someone eats your own profit (with the high listing fee). As for new postings they will undercut one another by 1 copper at a time and then supply and demand should balance out. The problem with the current situation where there is low supply and relatively high demand (at the moment there are 554 on the market with a demand of 1099 and the price is rising) is that it is easy for one person to corner the market and set the price to whatever they want it to be. I don’t know about you but I dislike that kind of market manipulation in a game.

However, having a dependable once-daily source for these kinds of items would insulate them from price fixing as well as give people an in game way of getting their own that doesn’t rely on a less than 1% drop rate.

Versus having something sit on the TP and not sell? Players will undercut by more that 1 copper in order to get a quick sale. Also think about individual players undercutting each other.

The issue is that by adding so much supply, and it being in low demand, sell orders will not move fast enough. With each meta completion for everyone per day, they add more to that surplus that will not lose as much supply as it gains. Eventually it’ll hit the point where its price equals that of amalgamated gemstones.

There will be players that are impatient who see that their sell orders have so many in front of theirs that they decide to take a hit on potential gold and list it at the current sell price in order to get something out of it. These players will compete with each other and drive the price further down.

The better option would be to just increase the drop rate.

If it was a significant drop rate increase then that’d be fine. Although if it was a significant drop rate increase then everything you think will happen if it was added to the daily chest will happen anyway.

Pifil.5193:

Ayrilana.1396:

Pifil.5193:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Why would players pick maguuma flowers over amalgated gemstones if the price is lower, jsut to up supply and get less money?

That’s not at all what I said (if this was directed at me).

It was just posing an additional question on your theory. It seemed to me to be a huge factor yet you dont seem to mention it.

I did in my first paragraph. I’ll add another sentence at the end to make sure it’s clear.

People would choose them up to the point that they’re equal to amalgamated gemstones. Once they went lower, they’d stop going for them. What will drive the price further down would be the large surplus of supply that’s slow moving due to so few uses. Players would get impatient and undercut each other in order to sell the items rather than have them remain on the TP.

I don’t think that’s likely, removing something from the tp to undercut someone eats your own profit (with the high listing fee). As for new postings they will undercut one another by 1 copper at a time and then supply and demand should balance out. The problem with the current situation where there is low supply and relatively high demand (at the moment there are 554 on the market with a demand of 1099 and the price is rising) is that it is easy for one person to corner the market and set the price to whatever they want it to be. I don’t know about you but I dislike that kind of market manipulation in a game.

However, having a dependable once-daily source for these kinds of items would insulate them from price fixing as well as give people an in game way of getting their own that doesn’t rely on a less than 1% drop rate.

Versus having something sit on the TP and not sell? Players will undercut by more that 1 copper in order to get a quick sale. Also think about individual players undercutting each other.

The issue is that by adding so much supply, and it being in low demand, sell orders will not move fast enough. With each meta completion for everyone per day, they add more to that surplus that will not lose as much supply as it gains. Eventually it’ll hit the point where its price equals that of amalgamated gemstones.

There will be players that are impatient who see that their sell orders have so many in front of theirs that they decide to take a hit on potential gold and list it at the current sell price in order to get something out of it. These players will compete with each other and drive the price further down.

The better option would be to just increase the drop rate.

If it was a significant drop rate increase then that’d be fine. Although if it was a significant drop rate increase then everything you think will happen if it was added to the daily chest will happen anyway.

If it were increased enough to drop commonly then yes. I don’t see an issue with it being increased to 25% at the most. At least through this method it requires players to actively farm them.

I presume you meant 2.5%, not 25%?

Pifil.5193:

I presume you meant 2.5%, not 25%?

I meant somewhere upwards to 25% at most. It all depends on how often the jungle plants get harvested. It definitely doesn’t need to go the route of black diamonds.

Ayrilana.1396:

Astralporing.1957:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Why would players pick maguuma flowers over amalgated gemstones if the price is lower, jsut to up supply and get less money?

That’s not at all what I said (if this was directed at me).

It was just posing an additional question on your theory. It seemed to me to be a huge factor yet you dont seem to mention it.

I did in my first paragraph. I’ll add another sentence at the end to make sure it’s clear.

People would choose them up to the point that they’re equal to amalgamated gemstones. Once they went lower, they’d stop going for them. What will drive the price further down would be the large surplus of supply that’s slow moving due to so few uses. Players would get impatient and undercut each other in order to sell the items rather than have them remain on the TP.

But there wouldn’t be undercutting, as noone would pick lilies over amalgamates at that point (and their influx from current sources is negligible).

I had covered this in my post. It’s not about choosing it from the daily chest once it hit or went below the price of the amalgamated gemstones.

You might have a point if it was worthless before Caladbolg reforging event got introduced. It wasn’t. It was anything but worthless then.

So, if they would be selectable from the metaevent boxes, their price could at worst drop to the price of amalgamates. It would not drop significantly below it. If anything, it might even cause the price of amalgamates to rise a bit.

@Ayrilana – I see where your argument is coming from, but I have to disagree with it. Maguuma lilies are needed for trailblazer gear, which at the moment is one of the strongest gear sets in WvW due to giving you extremely high condi damage alongside extremely high personal sustain.

However, like Astralporing pointed out, Maguuma Lilies have had a high price long before the new content came out, which indicates that the demand is fairly constant. Short of a “panic” after the July 2016 patch that changed a lot of builds, the price hasn’t dipped below 7 gold each since Feb 2016, and even then they hovered right around 6-7 gold each since early Jan 2016. Putting them in the heros choice chest will lower the price significantly, but it won’t crash it.

Astralporing.1957:

Ayrilana.1396:

Astralporing.1957:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Ayrilana.1396:

FrizzFreston.5290:

Why would players pick maguuma flowers over amalgated gemstones if the price is lower, jsut to up supply and get less money?

That’s not at all what I said (if this was directed at me).

It was just posing an additional question on your theory. It seemed to me to be a huge factor yet you dont seem to mention it.

I did in my first paragraph. I’ll add another sentence at the end to make sure it’s clear.

People would choose them up to the point that they’re equal to amalgamated gemstones. Once they went lower, they’d stop going for them. What will drive the price further down would be the large surplus of supply that’s slow moving due to so few uses. Players would get impatient and undercut each other in order to sell the items rather than have them remain on the TP.

But there wouldn’t be undercutting, as noone would pick lilies over amalgamates at that point (and their influx from current sources is negligible).

I had covered this in my post. It’s not about choosing it from the daily chest once it hit or went below the price of the amalgamated gemstones.

You might have a point if it was worthless before Caladbolg reforging event got introduced. It wasn’t. It was anything but worthless then.

So, if they would be selectable from the metaevent boxes, their price could at worst drop to the price of amalgamates. It would not drop significantly below it. If anything, it might even cause the price of amalgamates to rise a bit.

OriOri.8724:

@Ayrilana – I see where your argument is coming from, but I have to disagree with it. Maguuma lilies are needed for trailblazer gear, which at the moment is one of the strongest gear sets in WvW due to giving you extremely high condi damage alongside extremely high personal sustain.

However, like Astralporing pointed out, Maguuma Lilies have had a high price long before the new content came out, which indicates that the demand is fairly constant. Short of a “panic” after the July 2016 patch that changed a lot of builds, the price hasn’t dipped below 7 gold each since Feb 2016, and even then they hovered right around 6-7 gold each since early Jan 2016. Putting them in the heros choice chest will lower the price significantly, but it won’t crash it.

If you look at the number of sell listings, they were fairly stable with buy listings being the same but twice as much. That’s before the current event added more demand for them. So just because it’s used in WvW doesn’t mean much since that was the only use. The price was high due to how difficult it was to farm them more than their use in WvW.

Adding them to hero chests will increase the number that come into the system that supply will easily outmatch the demand for them even with the current event. Any large scale impact from the current event has likely already passed so any significant drop in supply from it probably isn’t going to happen. Getting those five weapons isn’t that much cheaper and it requires players to have gone through the HoT story on a character so they’re limited by the number of characters that they have and how much effort they want to expend running those that have not gone through it.

When you add it to the hero chests, this gives the entire player base access to them by simply doing any of the metas on the four maps. If you assume that 2,000 players participate in a single meta, that’s pretty much four times the current supply being added in that instance. Chances are there will be more than that number of players and many of them would be doing more than just one map’s meta. This will quickly increase supply with players trying to undercut each other.

Just because the price hit the amalgamated gemstones price, doesn’t mean the price will suddenly stop going down. Since it moves so slow compared to how much supply as added, it’ll continue to go down as players try to get some gold. You’ll see this especially among those whose sell orders are buried behind many other sell orders.

It’d be easy enough to limit it to only 1 of the heros choice chests (say TD), which would further limit how many enter the market. And at that rate, you would need 18 days of doing that specific meta to get enough to make an entire set. A lot of people wouldn’t want to wait that long and would still buy them off the TP.

Why exactly is lilies dropping to be equivalent to the other HoT crafting materials bad, again?

OriOri.8724:

It’d be easy enough to limit it to only 1 of the heros choice chests (say TD), which would further limit how many enter the market. And at that rate, you would need 18 days of doing that specific meta to get enough to make an entire set. A lot of people wouldn’t want to wait that long and would still buy them off the TP.

Yes, and that was the suggestion that MithranArkanere originally made; “A choice of a maguuma lily in Tangled Depths.”

This would limit the influx more than increasing the drop rate would. I don’t know how many thousand, (tens of thousands? hundreds? ArenaNet only knows) of Jungle Plants are harvested every day but if the drop rate was twice what it is now (a still modest 1.76%) then all current orders could rapidly be filled, of course more people would now be willing to craft this armour once the price of the components goes down.

18 days would allow you enough time to craft your armour, a few more days if you wanted weapons too.

As it is, these kind of inordinately expensive materials (Lilies and Pearls that is) just allow some players to make some gold at the expense of other players who simply want some equipment.

It’s probably quite nice when you’re out gathering and you notice you got a Maguuma Lily “ooh, that’s worth 13g!” you say as you either deposit it in your bank or put it on the TP but expecting someone to pay 18 × 13g just for the main attribute set on a set of armour (not including any of the other crafting materials) is ridiculous in my opinion.

Edit: please note that I’m all for increasing the drop rate as well as adding them to the TD daily chest, I have no interest in maintaining the price for these materials at the current price. I don’t think it’s good for the players who want these stats and I’m all about people playing the game.

Hyper Cutter.9376:

Why exactly is lilies dropping to be equivalent to the other HoT crafting materials bad, again?

I don’t know, in my bank I have hundreds of the other materials and their prices range from about 20 to 40 s each, I have 4 lilies and 5 freshwater pearls (and I’m a “deposit all” player; when my bags are full I salvage everything, deposit all and carry on).

It’s often said that low drop rates are better for farmers and new players (unless those new players want to get this kind of equipment themselves, of course) but I wonder what’s really better from the point of view of farmers and newer players trying to make some gold: getting a fairly steady influx of things worth 20 to 40s or a once-in-a-blue-moon Maguuma Lily?

Ayrilana.1396:

Adding them to hero chests will increase the number that come into the system that supply will easily outmatch the demand for them even with the current event.

But only until their price dips below amalgamates. After that, the supply will go back to the previous situation, because people will stop choosing them. The demand seems to be high enough that the initial glut on the market should be cleared in relatively short time.

Yes, there will be one big dip in price, but it’s going to stabilize shortly after.

Hyper Cutter.9376:

Why exactly is lilies dropping to be equivalent to the other HoT crafting materials bad, again?

Most likely because someone is profitting from their scarcity and would like to profit more. So, obviousy, it’s bad for everyone. [/sarcasm]

Astralporing.1957:

Ayrilana.1396:

Adding them to hero chests will increase the number that come into the system that supply will easily outmatch the demand for them even with the current event.

But only until their price dips below amalgamates. After that, the supply will go back to the previous situation, because people will stop choosing them. The demand seems to be high enough that the initial glut on the market should be cleared in relatively short time.

Yes, there will be one big dip in price, but it’s going to stabilize shortly after.

Hyper Cutter.9376:

Why exactly is lilies dropping to be equivalent to the other HoT crafting materials bad, again?

Most likely because someone is profitting from their scarcity and would like to profit more. So, obviousy, it’s bad for everyone. [/sarcasm]

And what makes you think that?

Before the recent current event, supply was relatively stable with buy/sell orders not fluctuating all that much. Any change was likely the result of the AB farm which could especially be seen within the weeks leading up to its nerf. What players needed for WvW appeared to match with what was being farmed.

We’re now a couple weeks past the current event which added another minor use for them. Buy/sell orders increased but they’re still relatively stable now as before. There’s not a huge number of players going for them to cause any large fluctuations in those numbers. The current method of obtaining them is more or less meeting what is needed.

If you add thousands of supply into that do you really think that that glut would go away in a timely manner that players would not get impatient? Exactly what are you using to base it on being a “short time”? Everything is stable right now with the only method of acquisition being from harvesting.

I’m not against the price going down. I’m against the suggestion given because it adds too much too soon. Just increasing the harvest rate would be sufficient.

Ayrilana.1396:

And what makes you think that?

Observation of trends before the caladbolg events. We’re talking about market that could supply or eat several hundred of lilies in the manner of days. Yes, dumping several thousands would destabilize it for a while, but it would also completely cut off supply (because noone would be farming for them). After a month of two we’d be back to the previous routine, but balanced around a lower price (due to the additional potential source from event chest).

Ayrilana.1396:

Before the recent current event, supply was relatively stable with buy/sell orders not fluctuating all that much.

They were fluctuating enough to see that it was a living market, not stale one. People were actually supplying and buying lillies, it wasn’t just a number of long-term sell/buy offers that took a long time to fulfill.

Ayrilana.1396:

Any change was likely the result of the AB farm which could especially be seen within the weeks leading up to its nerf.

Since lillies didn’t drop from it, i don’t see how ABML might be relevant there.

Ayrilana.1396:

There’s not a huge number of players going for them to cause any large fluctuations in those numbers.

only because of the price. There would be a lot more interest in them if they were more affordable. We’re not talking here about a luxury/vanity item but about a base utility one.

Ayrilana.1396:

If you add thousands of supply into that do you really think that that glut would go away in a timely manner that players would not get impatient?

Yes. Some players would get impatient, of course, but it would also bring only a short-term instability. Eventually the market would balance around a new price. And that price would almost certainly would still be well above vendor value.
There’s no reason why the impatience you bring up would create a permanent effect.

Ayrilana.1396:

I’m not against the price going down. I’m against the suggestion given because it adds too much too soon. Just increasing the harvest rate would be sufficient.

Increasing the harvest rate might actually cause a much bigger impact – because it would not have a cutoff at a certain price floor.