There’s another thread out there discussing how to change rating to get better matchups. There’s a whole lot of discussion around the topics, but a significant portion of the differences seems to be around the question of which worlds are actually competitive. I’m curious who wildly all of our views differ. I’m posting my view on NA, based on what I’ve seen over the past few weeks. Keep in mind, this isn’t judgment, but an attempt to measure the variance of our perceptions. If you think I’m wrong, no insult intended, just post what is correct.
1: JQ, SoR, SoS
2: BG, Kain
3: FA, TC
4: DB, Mag
5: Yaks, CD, EB
6: SBI, DR, IoJ
7: BP, AR, NSP
8: DH, GoM, HoD, SF
9: FG, ET
Your turn
Your list about sums it up.
SoS/BG and probably Kaineng.
TC/FA and somewhat above TC but still below BG is Kaineng.
NA #’s 3/4/5/6/7 are pretty much in perfect order imo.
Disagree.
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups/history/14#NA
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups/history/15#NA
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups/history/16#NA
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups/history/17#NA
By establishing a tier 9 and putting FC and ET in it, you’re making it out as if there’s a massive difference/tier wall between us of tier 8 and every server in tier 7. You basically make the assumption that if Henge of Denravi dropped into tier 8, they too will dominate with 300-350k+ just because Sorrow’s Furnace, a former member of tier 7 now is.
This may or may not be correct. Take a look at how close those scores are. Henge of Denravi was barely winning out against Sorrow’s Furnace. If anything things between these two would be called an even match. That SAME Sorrow’s Furnace, fought Ferguson’s Crossing with similar scores for two weeks.
And then what happened? Sorrow’s Furnace gets a population boom and this happens.
http://mos.millenium.org/matchups/history/18#NA
And every next week the score was progressively made worse.
What was the source of this population boom they experienced is always debatable, but the fact is it is completely clear, and the score reflects it. Meanwhile the Sorrow’s Furnace that was on par with Henge of Denravi actually lost to Ferguson’s Crossing, and proceeded to pull off a small victory the next week in what was to be a clear back-and-forth situation until the unexpected happened. Now they even become stronger in the past 2 weeks with more coverage in a time zone I think they never had this much of before, during North American work/school hours. Their North American timezone slot grew massively, and despite losing some Latino guilds, from what would seem to be individual transfers of Latinos and others in those time zones doing a cultural huddle, their coverage in that timezone has not decreased in lethality at all.
So, what can you show me to prove to me that if this same Sorrow’s Furnace as it is was stuck into tier 7, it wouldn’t win with upwards of 250k, and that if Henge of Denravi fell we of tier 8 wouldn’t have great matchups with it as we did with Sorrow’s Furnace for the first two weeks?
The only wild card is whether HoD’s population increased significantly during the period Sorrow’s Furnace was gone. But then, so to has Ferguson’s Crossing ironically, the only problem with the server is that it is currently demoralized from having ended up with yet another overly populated opponent due to unpredicted circumstance and remains stuck with them for the unforeseeable future as despite winning with 350k+ SF is now losing rating.
If you want to say that what Sorrow’s Furnace has done with a population boom, Henge of Denravi could also, you need to prove it. The sheer score boards alone are massive evidence that if SF got paired up with Henge of Denravi as it was when SF fell, that it would probably crush Henge of Denravi just as badly as it crushes us, maybe even more drastically for all I know.
(edited by Detharos.3157)
Disagree.
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So, what can you show me to prove to me that if this same Sorrow’s Furnace as it is was stuck into tier 7, it wouldn’t win with upwards of 250k, and that if Henge of Denravi fell we of tier 8 wouldn’t have great matchups with it as we did with Sorrow’s Furnace for the first two weeks?
snip
As I stated in the original post, I have no proof… This is my conjecture based on what I’d seen. The point of this thread is not to debate what is “true” but put all of our perceptions out there, and see how close/far away we are. I invite you to post what you believe is the correct version.
Disagree.
snip
So, what can you show me to prove to me that if this same Sorrow’s Furnace as it is was stuck into tier 7, it wouldn’t win with upwards of 250k, and that if Henge of Denravi fell we of tier 8 wouldn’t have great matchups with it as we did with Sorrow’s Furnace for the first two weeks?
snip
As I stated in the original post, I have no proof… This is my conjecture based on what I’d seen. The point of this thread is not to debate what is “true” but put all of our perceptions out there, and see how close/far away we are. I invite you to post what you believe is the correct version.
I see. I thought from the other thread you posted in you wanted to see some debate here and there though. I might make an educated guess and edit it into the post atm, but info I have to work with is incredibly limited based on servers I’ve seen first hand, how far they’ve moved up and how comfortably they moved up, a few supposed inter-tier dynamics. (because score doesn’t always reflect strength in situations like those where two equally strong servers battle it out and the third member is weak in comparison and only ends up on the map because the other two are busy with each other.)
What I will do when I make a guess, and suggest is establishing strength levels within the tier.
For a very rough example, you could have.
Tier 7: X Server- Strong
Tier 7: Y Server- Strong
Tier 7: Z Server- Weak,
Tier 7: X Server- Medium
Tier 7: Y Server- Medium
Tier 7: Z Server- Strong (Points and placement being effected by the factor of the other two slightly weaker servers focusing more on the stronger server).
The idea is that, when a server is strong by is tier standards, it has the edge in the numbers/coverage/skill to score connection, yet is a possible contender for the tier above yet at that present time is not strong enough to make it to the tier above, or maintain any presence in the tier above should it advance.
(edited by Detharos.3157)
The mathups are pretty good already. The only real problem I see with the matchups right now is that SF is going to be stuck in tier 8 forever.
Tipping my hand a little earlier than I like, I believe that for any ranking/tiering system (glicko,nonglicko, bracket, etc…) to work, you will first have to have a much smaller number of tiers of competitiveness. Preferably 1, but since that is highly unlikely even a number such as 3 or 4 would get us out of guaranteed blow-outs. What’s ridiculous and ensures that nothing will settle right, is having more levels of competitiveness than there are match tiers, and having competitiveness tiers with only 2 servers.
But… I am only one person and I’ve only played against a few servers (as you have.) The rest of my conjecture is truly based on forum whining about blowouts. So, in this thread, we can find out a few things:
If we can all (with our communal experience) agree that there are 7-9 tiers of competitiveness, while dickering on individual membership, that highlights a significant problem that needs to be solved to get WvWvW continually interesting, wihtout burnout problems.
If we severely differ, with some folks thinking that there are 3 tiers of competitiveness, while others think there are 9, that highlights a fundamental disagreement in perception that will have to be ironed out before we can have any kind of legitimate discussion on ratings/rankings systems.
1: JQ
2: SoR, SoS, BG, Kain
3: FA, TC
4: DB, Mag
5: Yaks, CD, EB
6: BP, AR, NSP
7: SBI, DR, IoJ
8: DH, GoM, HoD, SF
9: FG, ET
Well to start, here’s my approximate guess on what’s formed in the current tiers. Some of it is complete guessing based on scores (tiers I have no experience with) and some is very educated guessing. (Tier 6/5 levels I can get a sense from how well Devona did, as well as tier 3 from Kaineng when they were in our tier considering that they might not of been tier 2 numbers yet from picking up more transfers as they ascended.)
Tier 1
Jade Quarry; Tier 1- Strong
Sanctum of Rall; Tier 1- Medium
Sea of Sorrows; Tier 1- Medium
Tier 2:
Blackgate; Tier 1- Weak-Medium(not sure which)
Kaineng; Tier 2 Strong- tier 1 Weak
Tarnished Coast; Tier 2- Medium
Tier 3:
Fort Aspenwood; Tier 2- Weak
Dragonbrand; Tier 3- Strong
Maguuma; Tier 3- Medium
Tier 4:
Crystal Desert; Tier 4 Medium-Strong
Yak’s Bend; Tier 4 Strong
Stormbluff Isle; Tier 5 Strong- Tier 4 Weak
Tier 5: (Really not sure with DR and IOJ)
Ehmry Bay; Tier 4 Medium-Strong
Isle of Janthir; Tier 5 Weak-Strong (Probably Medium)
Devona’s Rest; Tier 5 Weak-Strong (Probably Medium)
Tier 6:
Borlis Pass; Tier 5 Weak-Medium
Anvil Rock; Tier 5 Weak-Medium
Northern Shiverpeaks; Tier 6 Medium-Strong
Tier 7:
Darkhaven; Tier 6 Medium-Tier 5 Weak
Gate of Madness; Tier 7 Medium-Tier 6 Medium
Henge of Denravi; Tier 7 Medium-Strong-Tier 6 Weak
Tier 8:
Sorrow’s Furnace; Tier 6 Strong-Tier 5 Weak
Ferguson’s Crossing; Tier 7 Weak-Medium
Eredon Terrace; Tier 8 Strong-Tier 7 Medium
(edited by Detharos.3157)
1: JQ
2: SoR, SoS, BG
3: Kain
4: TC, FA
5: DB, Mag, Yaks,
6: CD, EB
I do not know about the servers below that so I won’t rank them. Personally, I’d love to see the tier 2 match-up above. It would be a very good match. Could BG still dominate SoR or have all the recent transfers to SoR made them too strong?
So then in tiers sorted by server power levels with some fluctuations accounted for, I’d say. I’ve left a lot of room for correction in the power level guesses. This is mostly assuming the servers are also running at optimal strength and not suffering from population drops from holidays/being demoralized or anything. These are of course very broad guesses, hence why I give power level variation. I mean no offense to any server if I’ve done a injustice with your power level, I really have no place making guesses for tiers like tier 4, tier 2, and tier 1 but can only act off the info available.
As for tier 8, 7, 6, 5 and tier 3 I can make educated guesses based on the former tier 8 servers who got the majority of their population booms in tier 8 and judge on where they peaked. (Kaineng I put at tier 3, in tier 8 it had accumulated the vast majority of its major transfers by the final week, but it did seem to acquire a few more as it raised higher so it might not of been strong enough for tier 2 at the time it was still in our tier dominating.)
Tier 1 level
Jade Quarry; Tier 1- Strong
Sanctum of Rall; Tier 1- Medium
Sea of Sorrows; Tier 1- Medium
Blackgate; Tier 1- Weak-Medium(not sure which)
Kaineng; Tier 2 Strong- tier 1 Weak
Tier 2 level
Kaineng; Tier 2 Strong- tier 1 Weak
Tarnished Coast; Tier 2- Medium
Fort Aspenwood; Tier 2- Weak
Tier 3 level
Dragonbrand; Tier 3- Strong
Maguuma; Tier 3- Medium
Tier 4 level
Crystal Desert; Tier 4 Medium-Strong
Yak’s Bend; Tier 4 Strong
Ehmry Bay; Tier 4 Medium-Strong
Tier 5 level
Isle of Janthir; Tier 5 Weak-Strong (Probably Medium)
Devona’s Rest; Tier 5 Weak-Strong (Probably Medium)
Borlis Pass; Tier 5 Weak-Medium
Anvil Rock; Tier 5 Weak-Medium
Sorrow’s Furnace; Tier 6 Strong-Tier 5 Weak
Tier 6 level
Northern Shiverpeaks; Tier 6 Medium-Strong
Sorrow’s Furnace; Tier 6 Strong-Tier 5 Weak
Darkhaven; Tier 6 Medium-Tier 5 Weak
Gate of Madness; Tier 7 Medium-Tier 5 Weak
Henge of Denravi; Tier 7 Medium-Tier 6 Weak
Tier 7 Level
Gate of Madness; Tier 7 Medium-Strong
Henge of Denravi; Tier 7 Medium-Strong
Ferguson’s Crossing; Tier 7 Weak-Medium
Eredon Terrace; Tier 8 Strong-Tier 7 Medium
Tier 8 level:
Eredon Terrace; Tier 8 Strong-Tier 7 Medium
These still wouldn’t even either, and loaded with complex and unpredictable dynamic fluctuation like time zone coverage, cultural holiday population decreases, whether GW2 sales are up, what countries the sales of GW2 are up, and depending on the country if they have established trends to roll characters on certain “cultural servers” or not.
This is all in theory still, but its the closest I can guesstimate to even with the current population comparisons and score trends. Probably still would suck/be harder for some servers than others, as indicated by varying levels of power and therefore map control within the tiers, as well as the possibilities of Cross-server Non-Aggression Pacts and alliances being formed making it harder for the stronger server to yield the score they would normally, encouraging them to drop, etc.
(edited by Detharos.3157)
JQ, SoR, SoS, BG, Kain
TC, FA
DB, Mag
CD, YB, EB
The bottom half is more difficult to predict.
Clearly BP, AR, and NSP are competitive with one another. But is DR really a tier ahead of them? I don’t think this is the case. During the second Mag/BP/DR fight, the latter two servers saw some of their players transferring off. DR edged out BP by only 10k sending BP to T6. DR had to deal with Kain the next week when there was still free transfers. I won’t say DR has become weaker than the T6 trio, but I think they may be on the same level.
SBI and IoJ are still big questions. Just from the fact they both had an exodus of players, people were assuming they would drop to T8. They are performing much better than expected. IoJ managed to outscore DR last week. We need to see how they will perform in matches that don’t have CD/YB/EB.
The first week DH dropped to T7, they narrowly lost to HoD. Now they are winning by a wider margin. Perhaps DH would be competitive against the T6 trio now?
Similar story with SF. They were competitive with GoM and HoD before they dropped to T8 where they narrowly lost to FC. They are winning by a landslide now.
JQ, SoR, SoS, BG, Kain
TC, FA
DB, Mag
CD, YB, EBThe bottom half is more difficult to predict.
Clearly BP, AR, and NSP are competitive with one another. But is DR really a tier ahead of them? I don’t think this is the case. During the second Mag/BP/DR fight, the latter two servers saw some of their players transferring off. DR edged out BP by only 10k sending BP to T6. DR had to deal with Kain the next week when there was still free transfers. I won’t say DR has become weaker than the T6 trio, but I think they may be on the same level.
SBI and IoJ are still big questions. Just from the fact they both had an exodus of players, people were assuming they would drop to T8. They are performing much better than expected. IoJ managed to outscore DR last week. We need to see how they will perform in matches that don’t have CD/YB/EB.
The first week DH dropped to T7, they narrowly lost to HoD. Now they are winning by a wider margin. Perhaps DH would be competitive against the T6 trio now?
Similar story with SF. They were competitive with GoM and HoD before they dropped to T8 where they narrowly lost to FC. They are winning by a landslide now.
My sentiment is the same as this fellow here. Tiers don’t really make a good measurement system as there are some cases where there are 4 to upwards of 6 servers that in any combination could be extremely competitive within the same tier. Because only 3 can be fit into one tier, some end up higher than they might belong and some end up lower than they might belong. From there those that ended up somewhere off may or may not end up with competitive matches depending on how the dice rolled with servers raising/dropping from the free transfer period, and other factors.
My sentiment is the same as this fellow here. Tiers don’t really make a good measurement system as there are some cases where there are 4 to upwards of 6 servers that in any combination could be extremely competitive within the same tier. Because only 3 can be fit into one tier, some end up higher than they might belong and some end up lower than they might belong. From there those that ended up somewhere off may or may not end up with competitive matches depending on how the dice rolled with servers raising/dropping from the free transfer period, and other factors.
I disagree. I don’t think it is possible to lump too many servers together. Let’s look at the tier one mentioned above your post.
JQ: Dominating tier 1 at the moment. They belong in their own category
SoR/SoS/BG: This would be a great match-up, but with JQ in the mix, it can never happen. None of these servers are at the level of JQ but all are stronger than Kain
Kain: Stronger than TC or FA
Perhaps JQ is its own tier. I can accept that since SoS is doing as well against JQ as TC is against BG and I put BG and TC as different tiers. Kain is close to BG. Even if SoR/SoS/BG can all beat Kain, it doesn’t mean Kain shouldn’t be in the same tier as them. It’s difficult to get three servers that would come down to the wire so our definition of competitive needs to be broader.
Perhaps JQ is its own tier. I can accept that since SoS is doing as well against JQ as TC is against BG and I put BG and TC as different tiers. Kain is close to BG. Even if SoR/SoS/BG can all beat Kain, it doesn’t mean Kain shouldn’t be in the same tier as them. It’s difficult to get three servers that would come down to the wire so our definition of competitive needs to be broader.
I wanted to let this go without big-footing the conversation (a tendency of mine), but I’ll step in here briefly. If you look at the original post, I ended with 9 “tiers,” some of which had more than 3 and some of which had less. Really, these aren’t intended to map to match-up tiers, but just to group which servers you believe will be reasonably competitive with each other.
Edit: I’m not sure that the definition needs to be broader. I think changing the definition hides the problem of there be very few cases where servers are on even footing.
(edited by JaironKalach.4938)
Does this mean we get shut down JQ, split them all off on lower tier servers equally, and then have the matchup we all want in T1 between SoS, SoR, and BG?
Edit: For the good of the game that is… :p
Does this mean we get shut down JQ, split them all off on lower tier servers equally, and then have the matchup we all want in T1 between SoS, SoR, and BG?
Edit: For the good of the game that is… :p
haha. For me, I think it more proves a point that there is NO rating scheme that can ever give us even match-ups on a week to week basis. Personally, I’d like to see more dynamic match-ups (the winner moves up loser moves down model). Sure that will give us some uneven match-ups but we have the same thing today. It would be more fun facing new servers ever week (except for the top 2 server and bottom 2 servers)
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