Guild Wars 2

I do wonder if the Glicko system breaks when used in tiers like this.

HoD isn’t doing that badly in tier 7, though. They aren’t getting pummeled, anyway.

I wonder if they need to adjust something like “you can’t go lower than 1000 rating”, then let the bottom servers churn around each other more freely. As it stands, I’m not sure there’s a way out of tier 8.

Go to https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/pvp/wuvwuv/Anet-doesn-t-care-about-t8 and look for the posts by Takerukun.8924. He provides a good explanation on what’s going on with the ranking system, why it breaks down in Tier 8 (and Tier 1), and why SF is still loosing rating despite our winning by a blowout.

Elementalist Owner.7802:

we completely destroyed them, doubling each of their points in score. […] we are still losing rating.

Something is broken with the scoring here… has to be.
I don’t see a way out of tier 8 unless they correct the rating system. Doubling the score of your enemy should NOT show an overall loss in rating points.
Could somebody from ANet explain the math behind this a bit, and possibly defend it? I’d like to know what has to happen for us to GAIN points, as doubling the enemy score is not enough.

D W.5179:

Elementalist Owner.7802:

we completely destroyed them, doubling each of their points in score. […] we are still losing rating.

Something is broken with the scoring here… has to be.
I don’t see a way out of tier 8 unless they correct the rating system. Doubling the score of your enemy should NOT show an overall loss in rating points.
Could somebody from ANet explain the math behind this a bit, and possibly defend it? I’d like to know what has to happen for us to GAIN points, as doubling the enemy score is not enough.

One of Takerukun’s posts in the other thread explains what is going on (emphasis mine)…

Takerukun.8924:

The way that the ratings work is that the system looks at the three servers’ current ratings and predicts the point outcome based off of those. The ratings are – sadly – modified based on how well a server does against its predicted outcome.

The math behind this is perfectly valid in theory. However the theory also assumes that the rating you have is more or less static, and that you will be facing enough opponents that a non-static score will be quickly dealt with.

This is what creates the soul-crushing pit that is T8. Due to the relatively small opponent pool we’ve faced, and the very static nature of their ratings (SF aside. Kain and DR were enough), the math involved has pushed the rating of FC to below where it should be. This, in turn, pulled ET down with us. And together, we shackle anyone unfortunate enough to face us.

That’s the problem with the current lack of a lower floor in T8 ratings. We’re far enough below the true T8 ratings (while still being T8 ratings), that SF can’t beat us by as much as the T7 ratings require it to. They lose ratings because the system not only expects them to curbstomp us, it expects them to curbstomp a fourth – and maybe a fifth as well – opponent in order to be on T7’s level.

That’s how beaten and bloody ET’s and FC’s ratings have become. Even if we did absolutely nothing, gaining fewer than 1000 end of week score between the two of us, SF still would not have beaten us by enough for the system to have trial run with SF in T7.

What makes this worse, is that every week SF stays in T8 and slaughters us, our ratings are going down further. This, simply put, only makes matters worse the longer they stay. SF will have roughly a two month stay. Assuming things continue to be a blowout even with SF gone as most non-T8 posters have predicted, the next unfortunate victim of T8 will be held hostage even longer.

D W.5179:

Something is broken with the scoring here… has to be.
I don’t see a way out of tier 8 unless they correct the rating system. Doubling the score of your enemy should NOT show an overall loss in rating points.
Could somebody from ANet explain the math behind this a bit, and possibly defend it? I’d like to know what has to happen for us to GAIN points, as doubling the enemy score is not enough.

You gain or lose rating based on how your actual performance compares to your expected performance which in turn is based on ratings. FC and ET’s ratings are so low that SF is expected to win by a massive blowout. Having a big blowout is underperforming.

One solution to fix this is to tighten the ratings. Change ever server’s rating to 1500+((current rating)-1500)/2. The problem will eventually come up again, but SF would be allowed to escape if this were applied once. Another solution is to have a rule added to the matchmaking system. If a server wins a tier twice and the server above it gets 3rd place twice, switch them for the next match. They can keep their rating, but their rank will switch.

Arcadio.6875:

D W.5179:

Something is broken with the scoring here… has to be.
I don’t see a way out of tier 8 unless they correct the rating system. Doubling the score of your enemy should NOT show an overall loss in rating points.
Could somebody from ANet explain the math behind this a bit, and possibly defend it? I’d like to know what has to happen for us to GAIN points, as doubling the enemy score is not enough.

You gain or lose rating based on how your actual performance compares to your expected performance which in turn is based on ratings. FC and ET’s ratings are so low that SF is expected to win by a massive blowout. Having a big blowout is underperforming.

One solution to fix this is to tighten the ratings. Change ever server’s rating to 1500+((current rating)-1500)/2. The problem will eventually come up again, but SF would be allowed to escape if this were applied once. Another solution is to have a rule added to the matchmaking system. If a server wins a tier twice and the server above it gets 3rd place twice, switch them for the next match. They can keep their rating, but their rank will switch.

While this would help, I can’t help feel it’s just a band-aid on a bullet wound. ET/FC would continue to drop in ratings, essentially causing a black hole effect that sucks down the ratings of whoever they fight in T8. For every week that their ratings drop, this effect will get worse and worse on whoever gets stuck with us. Even if they get to play in Tier 7 every few weeks, the effect on their rating will be ugly.

Theoretically, this third server’s rating will eventually get so bad that they will begin adding to the effect, and we’ll have 3 servers dragging things down, which could lead to that one server that gets cycled into T7 to start dragging THAT down as well.

I’ve created threads about this a month ago stating that this matchup will never end, glad to know I could see the future. There are literally 5 threads in this subforum over this and if ANet doesn’t address it by the end of the week we can only assume they just don’t care, in which case we might have to send them a cake like the necro forum did.

I agree with whoever suggested the lower score cap for t8.

Manoa.5897:

One of Takerukun’s posts in the other thread explains what is going on (emphasis mine)…

Thanks for posting these, very helpful.

So really there’s no way out of Tier 8 without a lot of time, even if all three servers are working to push one of them out. And it will be even worse the next time a server gets sucked into the black hole that is Tier 8. This definitely requires ArenaNet intervention, no doubt about it.

Just add t8 100 points each and take off 300 points equally from the remaining 21. Problem solved.

Elementalist Owner.7802:

Manoa.5897:

One of Takerukun’s posts in the other thread explains what is going on (emphasis mine)…

Thanks for posting these, very helpful.

So really there’s no way out of Tier 8 without a lot of time, even if all three servers are working to push one of them out. And it will be even worse the next time a server gets sucked into the black hole that is Tier 8. This definitely requires ArenaNet intervention, no doubt about it.

Anet should remove the maths they use that turn a win into a loss, right now you guys are winning, but losing ranks. Any math system that says a winner should fall behind is not a well formulated system.

They should stop trying to brain this at all, and make the match up’s simple and direct.

You win, you move up.
You lose, you move down.
You Don’t do either, you stay where you are and wait for the winners and loser of the other tiers to show up and see how well you do against them.

I hate to say it, but they really over complicated the whole thing, trying to use a Glicko system to formulate a profile for a world, that ruined it’s ability to be dynamic and moving.

They really need to remove the math and go back to simple direct, system, that makes a win a win and a loss a loss.

I can’t imagine how bad it must seem to own a map and still be losing.

The math needs to be there but a win is a win and positive points should be accumulated if you do, just less if your rated hire.

You know it’s bad when your enemy comes on and makes a thread about how broken the system is.

Thanks queensdale, everything helps… this is truly getting annoying because we literally CAN’T get ANYONE new into wvw, they come in and get stomped so then they leave and think twice about coming back in (we’re already floating between an outmanned buff on most bl like today and today was a GOOD day). It’s also a shame because these new players are the ones that buy the game and head to the least populated servers and this totally screws that aspect of the game. The more and longer the blowout goes on the less ppl pvp and the more we’re outnumbered… the thing is feeding upon itself at this point.

My only problem with the “you win, you move up; you lose, you move down” plan is that it generates poor match-ups more often.

I totally agree that we don’t want servers like Sorrow’s Furnace hopelessly eating other servers for months, but at the same time I don’t want to see servers like Ehmry Bay getting paired up with Anvil Rock, or servers like Sanctum of Rall getting matched up with Fort Aspenwood.

Additionally, a simple winner goes up/loser goes down system breaks up competitive tiers that probably should remain together. Borlis Pass/Anvil Rock/Northern Shiverpeaks have been neck and neck for several weeks now and it’s almost a toss-up who’s going to win each week. I don’t think we should arbitrarily break that up for the sake of change if the match-up is healthy, exciting and fun.

I made a thread about this a couple weeks ago. In my opinion they need to put a cap at the bottom and a cap at the top lets say the lowest you can go is 900 and the highest you can go is 2000 (doesn’t have to be those numbers) that way the bottom 2 servers that lose every week don’t keep going lower and lower and the top doesn’t keep going higher and higher.

Another Idea would be to put a cap in between tiers like 20 points or something and keep it that way.

I was so disappointed when they went back on their decision for the new ranking system. I looked forward to being stomped by other servers.

WvW is boring as all hell when you own everything.
-Less coordinated groups to go up against.
-Less options for activity.
-Brings all the trolls and people who want easy access to WvW, not those that are actually concerned with playing.

Our guild has a false sense of entitlement, thinking that we are much better than we really are, we need to be knocked down a peg -_-. Please give us that opportunity Anet.

As sick and twisted as it sounds, I wanted to get bootstomped by Kaineng as the Millenium site indicated was the projected matchup. It was going to be a badly needed exercise in learning how to make the numbers we have count for much more. Currently it feels like our daytime and nighttime crew all rely on our numerical advantage to brute force through objectives with minimal skill. It’s not as big a population difference as multiple vocal forum posters want everyone to think, but it is a tangible difference.

We needed that wakeup call for people to actually start thinking long and hard about tactics. A lot of us are already doing so anyway in order to try to keep “in shape” for if/when we finally make it out of T8, but it’s hard to convince fair-weather players to practice being tryhards.

Agreed, it was amazing how many guilds started to co-ordinate, schedule meetings, alliances, etc because of the impending doom that was to be. Now no one really cares, yet again.

pulsecodesgnl.3470:

Agreed, it was amazing how many guilds started to co-ordinate, schedule meetings, alliances, etc because of the impending doom that was to be. Now no one really cares, yet again.

Hard to imagine that there are people who wanted this monotone boredom.

Wouldn’t you need at least a second shade of green for it to be monotone?

Sarcasm aside, all three servers are getting hit by this. SF is getting more of an ego boost every day they’re in T8, which is leading a lot of them (not the entire server! Don’t shoot me.) to stop caring about tactics or anything. Who needs to practice or get better when you slaughter everything in sight without trying?

Then you have FC and ET being shot down every week, crushing the morale of both. Fewer people from each show up every week thereafter, which makes SF’s lead get even larger and confidence grow even more out of proportion. I feel bad for SF being stuck in T8, but I feel even worse for them when they escape from T8 and meet servers that can stand up to them.

On the bright side, if SF ever does leave T8, they’ll get an honest fight for the first time in over 2 months. Also, FC’s and ET’s morale might surface for just long enough to put up an even fight with SF’s replacement. If that could keep up, T8 might just see itself saved yet.

Takerukun.8924:

but I feel even worse for them when they escape from T8 and meet servers that can stand up to them.

Trust me, few if any of the commanders are under any illusion that T7 will be easy at all. I know that with every passing week, the threat of complacency looms larger and larger, but thankfully many of us have the foresight to make sure it doesn’t cloud our judgement.

Would love to see A-net’s response to this. While they are fixing golem jumping they let stuff like this happe.

silverfire.2547:

Trust me, few if any of the commanders are under any illusion that T7 will be easy at all. I know that with every passing week, the threat of complacency looms larger and larger, but thankfully many of us have the foresight to make sure it doesn’t cloud our judgement.

Oh, I have faith in the commanders and the WvW guild who know what they’re doing. I just have a slight worry that a fifth or more of your current WvW population will sail for greener pastures when T7 pulls a Gandalf.

I just look at millennium.
Is it a false entry or 4 hours ago did ET have +695 point gain?
Because if so.
You’re going to get destroyed by tier 7 if even ET can get that much.

Total faceroll.

It was a troll.
Also SF will crush T7 easily and likely beat T6 in a similar way that Devona did, then hitting T5 and losing and start bouncing between T6 and T5 or just staying in T6 after the loss.

Sorrow’s Furnace will actually fit in well with T7. Youre overestimating them if you think they’ll beat T7 easily.
You cant compare them to DR when they finally escaped T8. Because DR was tripling their opponents scores, not just doubling. And they were required to do this for several consecutive weeks.

Darek.1836:

It was a troll.
Also SF will crush T7 easily and likely beat T6 in a similar way that Devona did, then hitting T5 and losing and start bouncing between T6 and T5 or just staying in T6 after the loss.

NSP is tier 6.
We rolled SF. We rolled them badly for weeks.

But then again NSP belongs in tier 7 now.
I still think we could roll SF though, if they wanted a history lesson.

But I suppose you are amazingly well informed from being in tier 5 and tier 6 for so long hmm?
I know T5, T6 and T7 well and played against all T8 servers.
Just saying.
xfer servers don’t exist anymore.

SF may have gotten a boon and NSP taken a hit.
But the significance to start with was big enough to make a god guess now.
This isn’t like Kaineng, which was stuck there since the start. This is SF being put there after being tested.

I’m not comparing them to Kaineng, I’m comparing them to Devona. They did receieve transfers. They did regain fairweathers and PVE’rs. I did play T6 for a while on Anvil Rock. I am willing to bet you 100$ that Sorrow’s will easily handle T7 if and ever they move up there, if they move soon. Obviously they may not if it’s in 3 months and half the server left because it’s boring.

inbetween.5623:

Sorrow’s Furnace will actually fit in well with T7. Youre overestimating them if you think they’ll beat T7 easily.
You cant compare them to DR when they finally escaped T8. Because DR was tripling their opponents scores, not just doubling. And they were required to do this for several consecutive weeks.

Posted this before but:
Score of T8 last week of SF/FC/ET respectively:
367 740
124 160
110 643

Score of T8 several months ago, the last matchup with devona in T8, DR/FC/KN respectively:
378 482
124 955
109 725

T7 against Devona next week:
41 437
39 949
532 158

Seems pretty freakin’ obvious to me. There is no other comparison except for how FC beat SF when they first came here and how T8 did better against Kaineng than T7 did.

Rob.7624:

NSP is tier 6.
We rolled SF. We rolled them badly for weeks.

I keenly remember the taste of pavement and boots from having my head being stomped into the curb a couple weeks ago at the hands of NSP. Then again, when we were matched up against you guys, we had just lost quite a lot of players to transfers.

After that, we continued to shed WvW presence — I haven’t seen CL for months. The only incoming transfers since then that I’ve heard of were one or two smaller guilds coming in from SoR and a couple one-offs jumping ship from ET and FC.

Past that, any gains we’ve made as a server have come from CoSA’s ever-increasing WvW presence, day-to-day improvements in communication between commanders and small groups, and “original” SF players from day one beginning to work more closely together. I don’t see too many of the old repeat offender fair-weather only guilds on anymore; they’re either long gone or calling themselves PvX PvE guilds now.

Call it cautious optimism, but despite what you hear about the population disparity in T8, I’d like to believe that most of our recent gains have been in quality, not quantity.

According to you, everyone in t8 is better than t7. Then please explain how you lose to original t7 servers like Sorrow’s Furnace?
Im not saying SF wont win t7, they probably have high chances to do so. But you expect a Devona scoreline? You realise Sorrow’s Furnace was an opponent of DR, as was HoD which at the time was in freefall. Hardly a competitive matchup, so DRs score was heavily inflated.
The rating system is flawed i agree, and Sorrow’s furnace do not beling in t8 without a doubt. but you completely overestimate them if you assume that they belong in t5/t6 simply because you lose to them.
The only assumption you can make based on evidence is they dont belong in t8.

silverfire.2547:

Rob.7624:

NSP is tier 6.
We rolled SF. We rolled them badly for weeks.

I keenly remember the taste of pavement and boots from having my head being stomped into the curb a couple weeks ago at the hands of NSP. Then again, when we were matched up against you guys, we had just lost quite a lot of players to transfers.

After that, we continued to shed WvW presence — I haven’t seen CL for months. The only incoming transfers since then that I’ve heard of were one or two smaller guilds coming in from SoR and a couple one-offs jumping ship from ET and FC.

Past that, any gains we’ve made as a server have come from CoSA’s ever-increasing WvW presence, day-to-day improvements in communication between commanders and small groups, and “original” SF players from day one beginning to work more closely together. I don’t see too many of the old repeat offender fair-weather only guilds on anymore; they’re either long gone or calling themselves PvX PvE guilds now.

Call it cautious optimism, but despite what you hear about the population disparity in T8, I’d like to believe that most of our recent gains have been in quality, not quantity.

Best joke ever. Ty. If there are no new players and you don’t outnumber us at all then I guess we’ve stumbled onto your super secret cloning project where your skill is so great that it gives us outmanned buff half the time on our own BL and camps us from 3 spawn exits in EB while spawncamping FC at the same time. This incredible skill and coordination has to be why you’re able to give us the out*manned* buff and have more coverage than us. I thank you for your brilliant insight into our server’s issues.

inbetween.5623:

According to you, everyone in t8 is better than t7. Then please explain how you lose to original t7 servers like Sorrow’s Furnace?
Im not saying SF wont win t7, they probably have high chances to do so. But you expect a Devona scoreline? You realise Sorrow’s Furnace was an opponent of DR, as was HoD which at the time was in freefall. Hardly a competitive matchup, so DRs score was heavily inflated.
The rating system is flawed i agree, and Sorrow’s furnace do not beling in t8 without a doubt. but you completely overestimate them if you assume that they belong in t5/t6 simply because you lose to them.
The only assumption you can make based on evidence is they dont belong in t8.

Well the explanation is quite simple.. as everyone here without a doubt believes they got many transfers or people to return to WvW. Basically their population in wvw doubled and maybe tripled. Maybe you’re right about why Devona stomped T7, but I still expect similar results.

I think you’ve actually misread my post.

We do outnumber you guys, just not by the margins you guys like to claim. While it’s true we do have more fair-weather pugs playing right now, the bulk of that margin came from decreases in FC/ET’s fielded numbers, not increases in ours.

silverfire.2547:

Rob.7624:

NSP is tier 6.
We rolled SF. We rolled them badly for weeks.

I keenly remember the taste of pavement and boots from having my head being stomped into the curb a couple weeks ago at the hands of NSP. Then again, when we were matched up against you guys, we had just lost quite a lot of players to transfers.

After that, we continued to shed WvW presence — I haven’t seen CL for months. The only incoming transfers since then that I’ve heard of were one or two smaller guilds coming in from SoR and a couple one-offs jumping ship from ET and FC.

Past that, any gains we’ve made as a server have come from CoSA’s ever-increasing WvW presence, day-to-day improvements in communication between commanders and small groups, and “original” SF players from day one beginning to work more closely together. I don’t see too many of the old repeat offender fair-weather only guilds on anymore; they’re either long gone or calling themselves PvX PvE guilds now.

Call it cautious optimism, but despite what you hear about the population disparity in T8, I’d like to believe that most of our recent gains have been in quality, not quantity.

NSP has that quality over quantity since the start, and at one point it carried us into tier 5.

But tier 5 is all about Quantity, and we lost our entire night crew (except me) after a few short weeks of being in tier 6. Which has put us at a severe disadvantage.

We’re now losing in tier 6. Not badly, but I think if you put us in the tier below. We would decimate.
And for a server coming up from the tier below? It wouldn’t be pleasant.

It would be fun to fight SF again, but for your sakes just hope that NSP doesn’t move down the same week you guys move up.
Because then it’d be Tier6 vs Tier8 server

I fought you guys while on DR and while visiting another server, but rob believe me when I tell you there are a lot of these guys (fairweather into wvw now or for whatever other reason). I don’t think the majority of them are good from what I’ve seen, but I think they can learn and have shown some big plays. I’d like to see the match up tbh because I think you might beat them but it would be close. First week we were here in the match up between ferg sf and et was great though for what it’s worth… For whatever reason (xfers on / off – more people hopping in, who knows) it’s been totally one sided since.

Best of luck in NSP.

Rob.7624:

NSP has that quality over quantity since the start, and at one point it carried us into tier 5.

But tier 5 is all about Quantity, and we lost our entire night crew (except me) after a few short weeks of being in tier 6. Which has put us at a severe disadvantage.

We’re now losing in tier 6. Not badly, but I think if you put is in the tier below. We would decimate.
And for a server coming up from the tier below? It wouldn’t be pleasant.

I don’t know if you remember the time zone coverage we had during our brief stay in your tier, but nothing has really changed. Our strong time zones have gotten stronger, but our night shift is still deplorable. The only reason why we don’t lose the entire map at night is because by no stretch of imagination, FC/ET’s night presence is worse.

I have absolutely no expectation of being able to hold daytime gains through the night in a higher tier, which may very well knock us back down into T8.

SniffyCube.6107:

I fought you guys while on DR and while visiting another server. It was fun you guys were great (even sent some players your way once), but rob believe me when I tell you there are a lot of these guys. I don’t think the majority of them are good from what I’ve seen, but I think they can learn. I’d like to see the match up tbh because I think you might beat them but it would be close.

If they don’t have 24hour coverage then they don’t stand a chance, to be put quite simply.

Our primetime zerg could be neck and neck sure. But if there is an absence during my night shift? They’ll wake up to have their keep fortified with WP and NSP waiting inside.

Never underestimate a night crew.
NSP was the only one in tier 6 to have a full crew, so I do doubt the tiers below have anything to match. And yes, we lost the vast majority of it. But even I gave DR a run for their money with only pugs.

Don’t really want to edit this in for whoever has responded or read my last post, but for whatever reason, let’s not lose sight of why this thread was started. There’s a huge disparity atm, and sf needs to be moved instead of having to continue this grueling match up for the next month(s)… and we won’t really find out post xfer period post t8 population shift what your actual match up will be until it’s actually put into place which is impossible currently and why this thread was created in the first place. One step at a time regardless of your personal feelings, it’s all anecdotal and speculative at the minute without hard data post xfer period.

Fact: other servers are getting stomped on with no end in sight and we can’t test any of your theories until this is fixed… which it won’t be due to the skewed ratings.

Rob.7624:

This isn’t like Kaineng, which was stuck there since the start. This is SF being put there after being tested.

Except Kaineng went up because of transfers… which is exactly what has happened with SF. We had a substantial amount of guilds transfer in from higher tiers before free transfers ended, the SF that you claim has been tested so well is entirely different than the one you encountered beforehand, most of those guilds actually left when we were on our decline.

I’m not saying we’re going to wipe any other tier, I just think you shouldn’t write us off that quickly because you played against us what 2-3 months ago now.

Takerukun.8924:

Wouldn’t you need at least a second shade of green for it to be monotone?

That would be monochrome ;-P

Ok jokes aside.

SF is getting more of an ego boost every day they’re in T8, which is leading a lot of them (not the entire server! Don’t shoot me.) to stop caring about tactics or anything. Who needs to practice or get better when you slaughter everything in sight without trying?

I wondered that myself, as well. if wining all the time is sadly setting yourself up to fail later.

Anyway. I have a Theory.

I theorize that IF we at ET (and FC) were to just ignore WvWvW, for the week, and let you just take it all, you would still not get out of Tier 8 because the math is just that messed up.

I would love to see if I am right or not.

Rob.7624:

pulsecodesgnl.3470:

Rob.7624:

This isn’t like Kaineng, which was stuck there since the start. This is SF being put there after being tested.

Except Kaineng went up because of transfers… which is exactly what has happened with SF. We had a substantial amount of guilds transfer in from higher tiers before free transfers ended, the SF that you claim has been tested so well is entirely different than the one you encountered beforehand, most of those guilds actually left when we were on our decline.

I’m not saying we’re going to wipe any other tier, I just think you shouldn’t write us off that quickly because you played against us what 2-3 months ago now.

From what the above posts tell me. SF has had very few xfers.
We’ll see what happens in the future.

I’m just looking at the evidence.
And I doubt you’ve even a fraction of the numbers Kaineng have, with a score of 166k – 81 – 71.

When Kaineng was tier 3 it was still winning at 400k – 90k – 85k

Statistics bro.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.

You’re taking your information from the few SF that believe they are winning because of how amazing they are. For every one of those players, there are about 5-10 SF posting here or in the other sections of the forums saying they outnumber us for whatever reason and should move because it’s not fun for them.

Rob.7624:

SniffyCube.6107:

Rob.7624:

pulsecodesgnl.3470:

Rob.7624:

This isn’t like Kaineng, which was stuck there since the start. This is SF being put there after being tested.

Except Kaineng went up because of transfers… which is exactly what has happened with SF. We had a substantial amount of guilds transfer in from higher tiers before free transfers ended, the SF that you claim has been tested so well is entirely different than the one you encountered beforehand, most of those guilds actually left when we were on our decline.

I’m not saying we’re going to wipe any other tier, I just think you shouldn’t write us off that quickly because you played against us what 2-3 months ago now.

From what the above posts tell me. SF has had very few xfers.
We’ll see what happens in the future.

I’m just looking at the evidence.
And I doubt you’ve even a fraction of the numbers Kaineng have, with a score of 166k – 81 – 71.

When Kaineng was tier 3 it was still winning at 400k – 90k – 85k

Statistics bro.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.

You’re taking your information from the few SF that believe they are winning because of how amazing they are. For every one of those players, there are about 10 SF posting here or in the other sections of the forums saying they outnumber us for whatever reason and should move because it’s not fun for them.

I think you need to open a dictionary and look up what bias means.
Because numbers don’t choose sides.

10 people tell you you are wrong. 10 people as equally qualified as you.
The likelihood of you being wrong is high.

If you ignore that then you’re just too dim to reply too.

Go look at millennium match history.

During the initial entrance in the tier the demoralised SF probably barely showed up. While the recently freed FC and ET (who had been crushed by Kaineng for yonkies) rose up and had their fair weather stretch their legs.
Its call the novelty effect. Every server experiences it.
The next week, SF starts to wake up. Come back into the dead WvW.
And the week after that you’re back to winning and the guys in WvW who haven’t done it in months start to play again.

Logic.

If I may,

Bias: an inclination of temperament or outlook; especially: a personal and sometimes unreasoned judgment : prejudice

an instance of such prejudice

(1): deviation of the expected value of a statistical estimate from the quantity it estimates (2): systematic error introduced into sampling or testing by selecting or encouraging one outcome or answer over others

Looks to me like Sniffycube used the word in the proper way.

That being said, with SFs coverage(large prime time force and a large night crew) this puts them in a position where they should have the chance to fight in T7. And they should have the chance to fight in T7 no matter what their prior results.

I would like to commend you on using your edit option to edit your post after the fact to add an argument.

100% of people who eat potatoes die. See what I did there?

Kaineng was a snowball effect. The higher they went the more xfers they got, but I can understand how some people are allergic to context

Potatoes can’t be healthy if everyone dies who has ever eaten a potato!

TheGhostBaron.1250:

Rob.7624:

SniffyCube.6107:

Rob.7624:

pulsecodesgnl.3470:

Rob.7624:

This isn’t like Kaineng, which was stuck there since the start. This is SF being put there after being tested.

Except Kaineng went up because of transfers… which is exactly what has happened with SF. We had a substantial amount of guilds transfer in from higher tiers before free transfers ended, the SF that you claim has been tested so well is entirely different than the one you encountered beforehand, most of those guilds actually left when we were on our decline.

I’m not saying we’re going to wipe any other tier, I just think you shouldn’t write us off that quickly because you played against us what 2-3 months ago now.

From what the above posts tell me. SF has had very few xfers.
We’ll see what happens in the future.

I’m just looking at the evidence.
And I doubt you’ve even a fraction of the numbers Kaineng have, with a score of 166k – 81 – 71.

When Kaineng was tier 3 it was still winning at 400k – 90k – 85k

Statistics bro.

Confirmation bias (also called confirmatory bias or myside bias) is a tendency of people to favor information that confirms their beliefs or hypotheses.

You’re taking your information from the few SF that believe they are winning because of how amazing they are. For every one of those players, there are about 10 SF posting here or in the other sections of the forums saying they outnumber us for whatever reason and should move because it’s not fun for them.

I think you need to open a dictionary and look up what bias means.
Because numbers don’t choose sides.

10 people tell you you are wrong. 10 people as equally qualified as you.
The likelihood of you being wrong is high.

If you ignore that then you’re just too dim to reply too.

Go look at millennium match history.

During the initial entrance in the tier the demoralised SF probably barely showed up. While the recently freed FC and ET (who had been crushed by Kaineng for yonkies) rose up and had their fair weather stretch their legs.
Its call the novelty effect. Every server experiences it.
The next week, SF starts to wake up. Come back into the dead WvW.
And the week after that you’re back to winning and the guys in WvW who haven’t done it in months start to play again.

Logic.

If I may,

Bias: an inclination of temperament or outlook; especially: a personal and sometimes unreasoned judgment : prejudice

an instance of such prejudice

(1): deviation of the expected value of a statistical estimate from the quantity it estimates (2): systematic error introduced into sampling or testing by selecting or encouraging one outcome or answer over others

Looks to me like Sniffycube used the word in the proper way.

That being said, with SFs coverage(large prime time force and a large night crew) this puts them in a position where they should have the chance to fight in T7. And they should have the chance to fight in T7 no matter what their prior results.

Yeh what personal gain do I get out of it?
I am a third party entity and I can choose my sources as I am unbias (since it doesn’t affect me whatever happens).
So if my sources are bias that is for me to decide, and looking at it statistically Sniffy is incorrect.

I think I’m going to return to my own people.
It will be funny if your Commanders work like this too.

And your definition of large is different to mine.
My definition of large is 120 players, enough to cover 2 maps with a sufficient zerg. That is only during my timezone, which is at 2am pacific time.
If you field that during the night shift? Well.
Lets just say only tier 5 can do that.

SniffyCube.6107:

I would like to commend you on using your edit option to edit your post after the fact to add an argument.

100% of people who eat potatoes die. See what I did there?

Kaineng was a snowball effect. The higher they went the more xfers they got, but I can understand how some people are allergic to context

Potatoes can’t be healthy if everyone dies who has ever eaten a potato!

I see what you did there.
And its a terrible analogy.

A better one would be,
A rocket requires more energy to move the initial 2inches off the ground than it requires to get from there to space.

Kaineng was bloated to begin with.
They got extras on the way.
But it was still a piggy at the start.

I’m also irish, I find you calling our beloved potatoes poisonous offensive.
They would never do anything to harm us.
<3

the ability to use * lol everyone gets one free typo hallpass – android phones are pretty unfriendly with auto correct

Ungood.3054:

Takerukun.8924:

Wouldn’t you need at least a second shade of green for it to be monotone?

That would be monochrome ;-P

Ahem…excuse me as I quietly go and edit that. //Facepalm//

Ungood.3054:

I wondered that myself, as well. if wining all the time is sadly setting yourself up to fail later.

Anyway. I have a Theory.

I theorize that IF we at ET (and FC) were to just ignore WvWvW, for the week, and let you just take it all, you would still not get out of Tier 8 because the math is just that messed up.

I would love to see if I am right or not.

Even if you were wrong, which is questionable at this point, SF would only get into T7 by their toenails. That is, after all, the point of the two to five threads floating around this forum on the issue at the moment.

SniffyCube.6107:

Don’t really want to edit this in for whoever has responded or read my last post, but for whatever reason, let’s not lose sight of why this thread was started. One step at a time regardless of your personal feelings, it’s all anecdotal and speculative at the minute without hard data post xfer period.

+1

As to the debate going on for the past 10 or so posts…Maybe my reading comprehension is just going down the toilet tonight, but what exactly is the viewpoint difference? Or are you guys just bouncing ideas off one another? All participants seem to have agreed that SF needs to get bumped up to T7, the T8 math is holding them in place, and that having a server drop from T6 to T7 probably wouldn’t be fun for anyone involved.

I think I’m missing something…will have to check back tomorrow to see how this played out. Good luck to all parties, and may your feces remain unflung.

TheGhostBaron.1250:

That being said, with SFs coverage(large prime time force and a large night crew) this puts them in a position where they should have the chance to fight in T7. And they should have the chance to fight in T7 no matter what their prior results.

Our lack of real night coverage is what brought us down into T8.

That coverage hasn’t changed for the better much if at all. Despite the knee-jerk reaction in claiming that we have a good/large night crew, that’s solely relative to the numbers fielded by a demoralized ET and FC. Up against whomever we’d be up against should we move out of T7, we will still get destroyed during nighttime. What remains to be seen is whether our prime time numbers will be able to carry enough momentum to offset that deficit.

silverfire.2547:

TheGhostBaron.1250:

That being said, with SFs coverage(large prime time force and a large night crew) this puts them in a position where they should have the chance to fight in T7. And they should have the chance to fight in T7 no matter what their prior results.

Our lack of real night coverage is what brought us down into T8.

That coverage hasn’t changed for the better much if at all. Despite the knee-jerk reaction in claiming that we have a good/large night crew, that’s solely relative to the numbers fielded by a demoralized ET and FC. Up against whomever we’d be up against should we move out of T7, we will still get destroyed during nighttime. What remains to be seen is whether our prime time numbers will be able to carry enough momentum to offset that deficit.

This comment was based on just my own views of the situation. To SF your night crew may be small, but for ET atleast its big enough to paint the maps green every night. Granted as I said this is only my view and I don’t try to make it seem like this is the view everyone has.

I like how you argue numbers but provide none Rob, it’s pretty intelligent, bro. Get out of this thread as you are detracting from the point. The reality is, SF is roflstomping ET and FC, it needs to change, its not fun for anyone.