Guild Wars 2

It’s obvious by now that the development team has abandoned the core concept of a grind free, e-sport quality, fun driven content system we all had hoped for. Why? Simple. Metrics.

Metrics are a useful tool in determining many things but the draw back is they’re just numbers and it’s left to the human interpreting what those numbers mean to facilitate an informed decision to act on them.

For instance it’s a fact that a person is more likely to get in a car accident if they’re wearing a rain coat. True story. Metrics would present this as perhaps people should be prevented from wearing rain coats while driving. Once rain coat prevention measures are put in place results are seen, and the number of accidents in which drivers are wearing rain coats plummets. Crisis averted right?

It’s not what it looks like.

The reason people in rain coats were more likely to get in an accident wasn’t due to rain coats, but the reason why people wear rain coats to begin with: it’s raining. Inclement weather was the actual cause but the metrics don’t make these kinds of connections for you, you have to make them yourself.

This is exactly what Devon and his team of WvW dev’s are doing. They only see WvW metrics, only the rain coats, and they don’t see the metrics of the Gem Store, PvE or sPvP, I.E. they don’t see the rain. This is why they keep seeing numbers in WvW rise as all the regulars see them fall.

It’s nearly to late, the damage is nearly irreparable, but perhaps this post will appeal to their logic and they’ll finally see the rain before GW2 solidifies into just another boring MMO we all used to play.

We can only hope.

I would love to know how you have the information about what the devs see and don’t see, because apparently you have much better insights than the rest of us on these forums.

I also love the fact that you talk about e-sports, when WvW have never in any way or form been talked about with e-sport.

lordkrall.7241:

I would love to know how you have the information about what the devs see and don’t see, because apparently you have much better insights than the rest of us on these forums.

I also love the fact that you talk about e-sports, when WvW have never in any way or form been talked about with e-sport.

Basic deduction dictates when someone sees something and that something is corroborated by the majority then that something is likely the closest to reality. Devon has said multiple times the numbers he’s seeing aren’t declining yet the numbers everyone on the forums are seeing are. Logical deduction is he’s not making the a connection between metrics.

And as for WvW not being an e-sport I never expected it to be, not made such a statement to insinuate it should be albeit have offered ideas in other threads in how it could be with GvG. If sPvP was e-sport quality many would be doing that instead of WvW, myself included.

Anything else you would like me to elaborate on?

Obscure One.4357:

Basic deduction dictates when someone sees something and that something is corroborated by the majority then that something is likely the closest to reality. Devon has said multiple times the numbers he’s seeing aren’t declining yet the numbers everyone on the forums are seeing are. Logical deduction is he’s not making the a connection between metrics.

And yet not “everyone on the forums” see numbers declining either.
And technically the only real numbers are the numbers Devon have, since he does have exact numbers of the players in WvW and their increase and/or decline. Thus his number is much more likely to be unbiased than “random forum poster that lost his guild # 9001”, right?

Although I cannot vouch for this thread or any numbers, I can say that people are in general really bad at interpreting statistics. Secondly, even if someone had access to the actual numbers and were able to ascertain the usage of WvW, it says absolutely nothing about people’s enjoyment of said content. It is not entirely unfair to presume that even people who dislike aspects of the experience still choose to play, and given that it’s an MMO, are even willing to go to great lengths to play without any particular enjoyment (especially if there is a reward or they merely see potential in the game play). Asserting that numbers are equal to approval seems like a very naive view.

Also, I have seen people proclaim that because only 5% (I don’t know if this number is correct) of players peruse the forums, that means they’re just a minority unworthy of serious consideration. How can that assertion be made without asking the other 95% first? It would seem incredible to me if the few percent who post here don’t have some representation amongst those who don’t. I doubt there are 95% other opinions out there.

If deciding what should happen in a game or any other media could be extracted from merely reading some numbers, no games would ever be taken off the grid, movies would never tank at the box office, and so on. I’ve seen people assert some truly bizarre things from completely irrelevant statistics. People make it this very black and white thing, when the reality is that the machine is much more nuanced and complex than that.

I find that the individual experience is often sacrificed when all your decisions are based on percentiles of millions. It’s great, for example, that an intended number of people have a precursor. The statistics speak for themselves. On an individual level, though, I would presume that the person who dropped 12 items in the forge to get it is somewhat happier than the guy who dropped 1200 items and still hasn’t gotten one. On an individual level the effort doesn’t match the reward, but statistically things are the way they’re supposed to be. Games are for many people, but those people are all individuals.

lordkrall.7241:

Obscure One.4357:

Basic deduction dictates when someone sees something and that something is corroborated by the majority then that something is likely the closest to reality. Devon has said multiple times the numbers he’s seeing aren’t declining yet the numbers everyone on the forums are seeing are. Logical deduction is he’s not making the a connection between metrics.

And yet not “everyone on the forums” see numbers declining either.
And technically the only real numbers are the numbers Devon have, since he does have exact numbers of the players in WvW and their increase and/or decline. Thus his number is much more likely to be unbiased than “random forum poster that lost his guild # 9001”, right?

Correct. Perhaps “everyone” was bit dramatic of a term to use. Myself and those like me are seeing a decline in numbers.

The fact that this is not being seen in the metrics begs to question why I am seeing it. If speaking only for myself it’s clear the metric is a better judge, but even still there are realities of game design that are manifesting that confirm my suspicions. Examples include the WxP system, fit to be grinded for an unknowable amount of time depending on how many alts a given player has. The restriction of ascended weapons, another grind element, to crafting. These are tell tale signs that the system, which was not initially designed to be a grind, is accommodating more and more grinding elements. Now I have a myraid of theories ranging from GW2 lacking end-game content, to just the common practice in the MMO market, but the one that makes the most sense is it’s a decision based purely on metrics.

I may have come off as presumptive, but I hold myself to no different standard than I hold anyone else, and if I’m proven wrong I can accept that and apologize. Though as it stands I have made some predictions and though I could be entirely off base and wrong if they actually turn out to be true I’m not above quoting myself and talking @#$%. Seems only fitting with all the trash talk about “other MMO’s” GW2 built it’s hype engine on, that it come back around when they turn out to suffer the same fate due to their design failures.

Vindictive? Sure, I’ll take that.

For someone so well versed in “logic” you should really reconsider the validity of your premises.

The forums only repent a fraction of the people who play the game. The forums are also heavily biased towards people who have complaints about the game. I’m more inclined to believe the statement from someone who has access to the numbers for all subscribers than someone who based their judgment off of forms and a /say poll in LA…

Drys.4018:

For someone so well versed in “logic” you should really reconsider the validity of your premises.

The forums only repent a fraction of the people who play the game. The forums are also heavily biased towards people who have complaints about the game. I’m more inclined to believe the statement from someone who has access to the numbers for all subscribers than someone who based their judgment off of forms and a /say poll in LA…

Presuming the community at large is or not a reflection of forum discussions is not what I’m getting at.

I like to think I can trust my own experience for what it is. Then when that experience is seen to not be isolated to my experience, what does that say? That our experiences are isolated and non representative of the rest of the community whom share our servers? If we’re imagining this why is it just us?

The natural thing to do is to conclude these experiences are just as real as the metrics, and if they are non representative of each other the next logical step is to propose an idea why that is. Either I’m delusional, which if I am there’s no way for me to figure that out since I’d be delusional, or there’s some validity to my observations in the OP.

Drys.4018:

For someone so well versed in “logic” you should really reconsider the validity of your premises.

The forums only repent a fraction of the people who play the game. The forums are also heavily biased towards people who have complaints about the game. I’m more inclined to believe the statement from someone who has access to the numbers for all subscribers than someone who based their judgment off of forms and a /say poll in LA…

At the same time though it’s foolish to think that the people on the forums don’t represent a lot more players who are concerned/bothered by these issues. That’s why poloticians and businesses take letters and feedback so seriously. They don’t know what the people who aren’t saying anything think. Sure you can get statistics etc. but interpreting them properly is very tricky. I know many players that think many of the same things that I do, but don’t post on the forums. They say they don’t even bother looking at the forums because it’s filled with trolls etc.

The vocal players are also… well… vocal. They talk to our friends and guildmates about these problems and the concerns/bothers tend to spread.

It would be very naive to think that the players on the forums just represent themselves + a few others and everyone else is happy because they don’t post.

Also idk why, but I found that typo hilarious.

it’s pretty basic really. numbers without context are meaningless. numbers are there to assist with the context, but can never outright replace context. it’s like people who simply quote stat sheets in sports, yet are completely ignorant of any intangibles that aren’t represented on said stat sheets. those people tend to come up with wildly outlandish theories, especially when it comes up to thinking up trade proposals. the rosters they tend to dream up would get absolutely demolished in reality, because they’re completely one dimensional. without context to gain a deeper understanding of the subject matter, the numbers are actually more of a detriment than helpful, because unless someone knows exactly how to interpret them, they’re almost guaranteed to misinterpret them. and those misinterpretations leads to false conclusions, and if someone is banking their business on them, those false conclusions lead to bankruptcy.

the sad part is, this isn’t some sort of advanced insight. anyone that has a high school education should be aware of this. as far as mathematics go, this is a very basic level. however, the basics tend to be the first thing people forget once their ego tells them they’re flawless. and then things unravel from their during their giant downward spiral of a reality check. which, in most cases, is extremely amusing to watch. or, to put it another way, pride goes before the fall, and america’s funniest home videos taught us that seeing people falling can be absolutely hilarious. especially if they get hit in the groin at some point during it.

lordkrall.7241:

And technically the only real numbers are the numbers Devon have, since he does have exact numbers of the players in WvW and their increase and/or decline. Thus his number is much more likely to be unbiased than …

Is this a joke? ANET would totally tell us population is declining right?
You are blind if you don’t notice the population difference from now compared to at the beginning of the year or even launch.

Corporations always give customers accurate numbers. /s

Kimhyuna.1035:

lordkrall.7241:

And technically the only real numbers are the numbers Devon have, since he does have exact numbers of the players in WvW and their increase and/or decline. Thus his number is much more likely to be unbiased than …

Is this a joke? ANET would totally tell us population is declining right?
You are blind if you don’t notice the population difference from now compared to at the beginning of the year or even launch.

Corporations always give customers accurate numbers. /s

Yep, this is true. And the fact that they made another free loaders week is just one way for them to make their “population statistic” is increasing when the main reason is because of this dumb free trial.