Weakness: Low Baseline Power This is something that is a is integral to a class with having a lot of tactical options as its identifying trait. If you fail to use those options, you will not be effective. However, this weakness was implemented as a flat statistical deficit (base vitality and armor). This is the laziest and poorest way to do it. Compare Anet’s system to League of Legends or DotA, arguably the most successful esports currently out there, and it becomes immediately apparent what the problem is.
In well designed games, baseline power deficit is mostly not a result of base stats. Instead, high skill cap options demand high skill to use by being conditionally good. Lee Sin and Invoker are trash when played poorly, but that’s not because they start the game with half the health and armor of other characters. Lee sin actually has stat advantage over most of the cast of LoL. They are skill dependent because of the way their abilities work, and the elementalist really has nothing close to that. Beyond Fire Grab nothing is actually dependent on player skill for its efficacy. This means that the only things the ele player can improve on are landing abilities at the right time/countering dodges etc. Essentially things that every profession has to deal with.
Because of this, Elementalist has a bar of very strong skills balanced by a set of very weak base stats and cooldowns. Neither of these things are interactive with the player.
This is why you see so much water/arcane. It isn’t because of the traits in particular, but because of the fact that the elementalist’s deficit in survivability, which is just a numbers game, is alot easier to make up for than it’s offensive power is to raise. Getting your elementalist to be better offensively requires nailing all the universal mechanics that other professions have to nail anyway. It’s easier right now just to take our tactical defensive options and use the base strength of our offensive skill bars, which outside of a very few skills, all have damage that doesn’t really rely on skill to apply.
Essentially, the elementalist was intended to have many options, demanding strong offensive and strong defensive power. Because the devs didn’t make these options skill dependant enough, the elementalist just has strong offensive and strong defensive power, held back by cooldown management and low base defensive stats. None of these factors are enjoyable or interactive with the player. Due to the fact that the defensive stats are the only ones that Arenanet changed, it is now much more effective to take defensive options than offensive ones. Why? Without stat deficit the only thing balancing elementalist offense is inflated cooldowns demanding cooldown management. Cooldowns are pretty much impossible to lower outside of exclusive traits, and even taking those traits will not raise your power level in a single encounter. The fact that offensive specialization actively attempts to minimize the number of cooldown cycles that one needs to go through makes specializing offense actually counterproductive.
What needs to be addressed Not the power level. Eles are fine right now from a matchup balance standpoint. What needs to change is how they feel, to build and play. Make elementalist offense more conditional, harder to apply, but make it a LOT more rewarding when applied well. Then bring up our built in defense baseline, or get rid of cooldowns as balancing entirely, as neither will then be necessary. If you pull off the number tweaking, this results in an elementalist that is just as effective (power output over player skill input) as it is currently, has a higher skill cap, and doesn’t have a lopsided preference for defense as a result of lazy design.
Final Summary: Make the elementalist offense more skill based and more difficult to apply, so the elementalist can get a stronger baseline defense (more built in evade/blinds/blocks). Nerf the whole kit floor down to match it’s defense baseline, then build up both offense and defense with more skill dependent, active options on both sides. This should let us build where we want to be strong, instead of just patching up where we are weak.