is this going to come down to celestial VS condition gear
with zerk being something of the past?
I think we’ll find that zerk gear will still be highly sought after, especially for PvE content…
With the way that condition stacking works (or doesn’t), direct damage is still the better choice when a group is focusing fire on a single target. And nerfing crit damage, while reducing overall burst DPS, is going to have little effect in boss fights except to make the battle slightly more protracted. In PvE everyone has shifted to the DPS/DPS/DPS paradigm in the first place because focusing down targets quickly is the most efficient way to gain maximum reqards with minim amount of time investment. By reducing crit burst damage they have effectively forced the time investment to be higher, but have not created new ways other than DPS to be efficient. DPS will remain the efficiency paradigm, and that will still be best served through high Power/Crit build designs in most cases.
If anything, I think the crit nerf might actually make zerk gear even more preferrable, because by making battles more protracted, the designers and devs have made it so that efficiency considerations are going to be even more important.
Plus, with some other build possibilities that will result from the new traits, I think having a very high crit chance will still be quite valid, even with nerfed crit damage. For example, with the new GM Fire Magic trait for eles, combined with Burning Precision (Adept Fire Magic trait), having a high crit rate could result in extremely high levels of application and reapplication of AoE Blind, so zerk, assassin, and rampager gear could have significant use to eles that choose to go that route. Also, with changes to sigils, and with 2H weapons now having the possibility for 2 sigils, on-crit sigils could be more useful, and would benefit from high crit chance.
So, in short, even though the damage burst from critical hits is being reduced, I think there is still considerable reason to continue to take gear and builds designed for Power/Crit. I think that Power may become a little more desirable compare to Ferocity than it was compared to Crit Damage, but number crunchers will eventually tell us if the revised crit burst system is actually changed. The question at this point will be if +Power will be better than +Precision or +Ferocity in creating the highest DPS potential, in general, for various builds. But keeping in mind that the baseline 150% damage on crit is unchanged, a 20% decrease to +Crit Damage is not going to equal out to a full 20% decrease to Total Crit Damage. All of the interplay between Power, Total Cirt Chance, and Total Crit Damage will need to be assessed.
In the end, I think that the crit damage nerf will result in slightly less direct damage burst, slightly reduced overall DPS, an increased desire for maximizing Group Total DPS for dungeons and general focused-fire scenarios, and a slight increase to the viability of condi builds for non-focused-fire scenarios (of which there are few). In general, I don’t think this change will have a huge impact on the game or the current meta, and I think it will (if anything) make the scramble for DPS maximizing for dungeon runs even worse than it has been, not better (of course, I’m assuming that counteracting that trend was part of their intention here, and that may not be so).