Guild Wars 2

We saw unidentified dyes drop prices down to 17.3 silver. Currently buy orders at 20.35, sell at almost 24. Thing is, there are 2.7 million buy orders and only 65K dyes being listed.

Where do we think this is gonna land?

Not sure but I invested in 320 unidentified dyes at 17.89, the question is when to sell.

Buy-orders don’t always mean it’s to use the dye, by either opening them or crafting the Bifrost, and thus reducing the supply. I think very slowly they will go back to what they used to be, but very, very slowly. I got 7 stacks at 15s/each because it’s all I could afford back and have them stored in case I take a break and return.

As long as Bifrost requires some number of unid’d dyes, and as long as there is a demand for rare dyes, there will always be a demand for unid’d dyes. Due to the changes in drops, supply will diminish faster than demand does.

Right now the only thing that will cause prices to drop is speculator impatience, if people get tired of holding on to their stacks of dyes and too many dump them at price X, then they’ll end up competing with each other for quick sales and the price will drop rapidly. Otherwise prices will slowly climb over a period of months.

those 2m buy orders sure arent between 17-21s. The real demand for UIDs (to identify them) hasnt changed and is extremely low. Right now probably more 90% of all dyes bought and sold are for a speculative purpose.

Wanze.8410:

those 2m buy orders sure arent between 17-21s. The real demand for UIDs (to identify them) hasnt changed and is extremely low. Right now probably more 90% of all dyes bought and sold are for a speculative purpose.

I know you’ve posted you are holding back, that the stockpile is too great and per your post here, the demand is low but how do you know that? You also posted that you think they’ll drop to 5 silver, do you think the majority of the buy orders are at the low end, the 5-10 silver mark?

Cassocaster.4576:

Wanze.8410:

those 2m buy orders sure arent between 17-21s. The real demand for UIDs (to identify them) hasnt changed and is extremely low. Right now probably more 90% of all dyes bought and sold are for a speculative purpose.

I know you’ve posted you are holding back, that the stockpile is too great and per your post here, the demand is low but how do you know that? You also posted that you think they’ll drop to 5 silver, do you think the majority of the buy orders are at the low end, the 5-10 silver mark?

The majority of the buy orders are at the 1c mark. Its probably just another attempt to bring it into the top ten wanted items, so they show up on the loading page of the tp.

The reason why i think they are not worth more than 5-10s is because you can actually calculate their average value: We know the average droprate of common, uncommon and rare dyes from UIDs. Now we just need to calculate the average value of common, uncommon and rare dyes. I done that a couple of days after the patch and established average values of 75c for common, 7.5s for uncommon and 75s for rare dyes. That would result in an average Return of Investment for each dye of a little less than 10s and since then, the prices of identified dyes tanked even more. What does that mean?

Everybody who identifies an UID right now, makes at least 10s loss on average. Right now its way more profitable to just buy stacks of common dyes on 30c buy order and promote them in the mf to rare dyes. If you want to fill your wardrobe dye collection, its cheaper to buy each dye directly.

If you consider the massive amount of people holding on to UIDs for speculative purposes atm, its hard for me to believe that there is any demand at all to open UIDs atm and there wont be for a long long time becasue the demand for the gift of color is miniscule.
Right now, more than half of all common dyes have a buy order 27-35c and the lowest listing is 85c.
Tell me why i should spend 50g on a stack of UIDs right now and hope it rises to a value of 100g within the next 3 months (along with tens of thousands other players), if i could just put in buy orders for common dyes and they will give me a profit of 100-200% within a day or week?

Yeah pretty sure it is an attempt to raise the price to unload. It is working somewhat. It happened before with the toxic krait tonic. I watched this because I had invested in it. It dropped very low and then one day someone placed tons of 1c orders. The price rose maybe 2 silver for a week or so and now they are at an almost all time low with no demand. I would not fall for this with the dyes. I really think it is someone getting ready to dump and they want a high price.

Wanze, as always, I appreciate your insight and candor. The boards are lucky to have you as a sage.

Wanze is correct. Those buy orders are at 1copper to put it on the “top demanded” list on the TP home screen.

Wanze.8410:

The reason why i think they are not worth more than 5-10s is because you can actually calculate their average value: We know the average droprate of common, uncommon and rare dyes from UIDs.

We do? What is those rates if you don’t mind? :P

Khisanth.2948:

Wanze.8410:

The reason why i think they are not worth more than 5-10s is because you can actually calculate their average value: We know the average droprate of common, uncommon and rare dyes from UIDs.

We do? What is those rates if you don’t mind? :P

65/25/10

Cassocaster.4576:

Wanze.8410:

those 2m buy orders sure arent between 17-21s. The real demand for UIDs (to identify them) hasnt changed and is extremely low. Right now probably more 90% of all dyes bought and sold are for a speculative purpose.

I know you’ve posted you are holding back, that the stockpile is too great and per your post here, the demand is low but how do you know that? You also posted that you think they’ll drop to 5 silver, do you think the majority of the buy orders are at the low end, the 5-10 silver mark?

Weren’t UID’s hovering close to 17s before all the changes? I don’t understand why people believe the prices should be 5 silver lol.

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

People still need 100 for bifrost and others like to gamble for some of the better rare dyes. Plus, what if they add in a new use for them or add in a few new hues to make them more exciting.

I had asked about whether they had added to the hues you can currently get in another post, I believe that hasn’t changed from launch, but one of my guild mates put out the idea that “maybe” they could add in a few new hues to be discovered from the UID’s.

I thought that was a long shot, but since it takes 5 laurels to get 1 UID, maybe that would make them a more attractive option or entice people to purchase their dye packs from the gem store.

When the UID’s dropped under 20 silver again, I bought as many as I could afford because I believe they will hit 40 silver easy.

I don’t care about the buy order amounts, because like stated above, 1 copper is all you need to place a buy order.

The supply has increased, yes, but they are no longer a drop. The last UID i got was when they gave away the free key. So.. don’t make it more complicated than it has to be.

No longer dropping = less supply in the long run.

One other thing to consider (comparing it to how weapon skins have gone up in price), when you buy a dye, that unlocks for all your characters. Yes, that means you only have to purchase 1 now of that hue, but the better hues should go up in prices.

They hold more value now. People might consider purchasing abyss at 40 gold since it will unlock for all their toons. I believe Abyss and Celestial are back up to their original value before this fiasco.

Lots to consider, but don’t look at numbers, use common sense.

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

That means I’ve been having very bad luck with opening unid dyes.

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

They were 30s for a couple of months before the changes. I rather trust my numbers than your spidy sense.

Good Luck with your investment.

@Gunga Din

UniDyes went above 20s mid August last year after a supply collapse during the Queen’s Jubilee and has risen ever since to around 34s before news from China indicated something was up with dyes. When we got official word about the changes here, prices soared to 50s and then declined to the 35-40s range until the patch dropped and a HUGE supply became available and the dye market plummeted.

I’m assuming the demand spike is just another 1c flood to try to boost prices. And with UniDyes back in the 25s range and only a 10% chance of a rare dye and only 5 rares (not gem store) out of 81 worth more than 2.9g (taking fees and taxes into account), it’s not really a good lottery investment.

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

They were 30s for a couple of months before the changes. I rather trust my numbers than your spidy sense.

Good Luck with your investment.

How did you know ? turns on spidy sense

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

They were 30s for a couple of months before the changes. I rather trust my numbers than your spidy sense.

Good Luck with your investment.

How did you know ? turns on spidy sense

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

Wanze.8410:

Gunga Din.2350:

They do not drop anymore (zero), takes 5 laurels to get one (that’s not happening) or you can get them from blacklion chests (RNG lol).

“Unidentified dyes will no longer drop as loot but will still be available from the Mystic Forge and select in-game rewards.”

This is directly from the blog post about dye changes. Did you realize that they didnt mention those in-game rewards specifically? Do they have to be limited in the future to the laurel vendor and BLCs? Or could they include them in reward tracks for pvp, next seasons wvw achievement rewards, map completion, achievement chests or LS Meta rewards?
I rather go by numbers than your “common” sense.

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

They were 30s for a couple of months before the changes. I rather trust my numbers than your spidy sense.

Good Luck with your investment.

How did you know ? turns on spidy sense

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

No, about my “spidy sense”. not gw2spidy

Gunga Din.2350:

Again, too many unknowns. Bottom line, they were about 17 silver before the changes. I highly doubt they will drop below that ever again.

I also doubt any options they choose to reward UID’s will yield any in a large amounts. Heck, they just changed it to 1 UID per 5 laurels ! I don’t see them giving you 20 per map completion.

FWIW — I agree with Wanze — I think it’s obvious that very little of the current demand is organic, it’s almost all speculators. I am participating in speculation wrt dyes — I bought a lot of identified dyes (hopefully in 3 months the trading post will be able to show me purchase history again), and I’ll hold onto those. But the price for unid dyes is out of whack — either other dyes have to go up, or unid dyes have to go down, since most of the value of the unid dyes is getting dyes (not making bifrost).

linuxotaku.4731:

….. since most of the value of the unid dyes is getting dyes (not making bifrost).

…and yet the the value you describe NOW has a constantly decreasing demand (sans for new accounts). Also, the purchase of the actual dye now has MORE value as it applies to all characters on the account. Did players actually BUY UID dyes to obtain colors? I sure hope they realize how unintelligent that is now.

Brother Grimm.5176:

linuxotaku.4731:

….. since most of the value of the unid dyes is getting dyes (not making bifrost).

…and yet the the value you describe NOW has a constantly decreasing demand (sans for new accounts). Also, the purchase of the actual dye now has MORE value as it applies to all characters on the account. Did players actually BUY UID dyes to obtain colors? I sure hope they realize how unintelligent that is now.

I believe before the feature patch, it was profitable to open unid dyes and sell all the resulting identified colors. I think it’s clear that that statement doesn’t hold right now.

Eventually, assuming GW2 doesn’t die, there will be new accounts whose owners want to unlock more colors — if/when this happens, we can expect dye prices to rise.

Keep in mind, in addition to using dyes directly, dyes can be thrown into the mystic forge in the hopes of promotion to a more valuable color — I think that’s the main use for cheap blue colors. That only makes sense when greens and yellows become more expensive (well, it might make sense now, I haven’t done the numbers — my goal is speculation, not immediate payoff, and I can’t stand all the clicking required for mystic forge promotion) — but it does provide a mechanism for burning through the supply of cheap identified dyes.

One other point is there may be plans in the offing for unids, imagine chef to 500, what do you think the ascended mat (deldimor/damask/spiritwood equivalent) will be made of? Could dyes play a part? Who knows. It’s all speculation, especially with ANet.

Those buy orders popped four days ago and perhaps it’s one buyer looking for 2 million at a copper each, 2,000 gold tied up in a offer that will never bear fruit to do what? Can that really raise interest enough to capitalize on it? Seems to have worked a little since they are selling for nearly 27 silver again. I could earn about 30% right now if I sold but very soon the short sellers will dump a bunch and we should see it pitch the other way.

I wish we knew how many buyers those 2.7 milion buy orders represented….that or somebody found out news on Friday and went to town.

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

laokoko.7403:

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

You seem to have some issues with the GW2 economy, I read your other posts and you seem to think that anyone involved on the TP is ripping regular players off. You know who sets the prices? The people who buy things. You complain that others earn more at the TP than farming and you know, you’re right. But what does complaining do for you? It just wastes your time because they will continue to do what they do, that’s how a market based economy operates.

What does your reply to my post have anything to do with my point of seeing a HUGE jump in unid buy orders all on Friday, by the way? Because I posted on another thread that I will continue to buy if the price keeps dropping? Well, it climbed, my last order I paid 17.3 for another 500, today buy orders are filling at 24, I won’t buy again unless they fall.

I also still hold out hope that the 20K silver ore I have will someday by worth something too.

See how strange it is to jump topics?

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

You seem to have some issues with the GW2 economy, I read your other posts and you seem to think that anyone involved on the TP is ripping regular players off. You know who sets the prices? The people who buy things. You complain that others earn more at the TP than farming and you know, you’re right. But what does complaining do for you? It just wastes your time because they will continue to do what they do, that’s how a market based economy operates.

What does your reply to my post have anything to do with my point of seeing a HUGE jump in unid buy orders all on Friday, by the way? Because I posted on another thread that I will continue to buy if the price keeps dropping? Well, it climbed, my last order I paid 17.3 for another 500, today buy orders are filling at 24, I won’t buy again unless they fall.

I also still hold out hope that the 20K silver ore I have will someday by worth something too.

See how strange it is to jump topics?

fill free to post in those thread, about me complaining on the economy, I think you are getting off topic.

I’m really just talking about you, since you started this thread. I remember you and Wanz are discussing back and force about unidentified price. I’m not sure if Wanz really think dye will drop to like 10 silver. Or he just want to buy more.

I’m just flash backing your post. Since you say you’ll keep buying it. So if you think it’ll go up to 1 gold or something, 24 silver isn’t too high right?

I’m waiting till they stop going up then I’m dumping my collection.

laokoko.7403:

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

You seem to have some issues with the GW2 economy, I read your other posts and you seem to think that anyone involved on the TP is ripping regular players off. You know who sets the prices? The people who buy things. You complain that others earn more at the TP than farming and you know, you’re right. But what does complaining do for you? It just wastes your time because they will continue to do what they do, that’s how a market based economy operates.

What does your reply to my post have anything to do with my point of seeing a HUGE jump in unid buy orders all on Friday, by the way? Because I posted on another thread that I will continue to buy if the price keeps dropping? Well, it climbed, my last order I paid 17.3 for another 500, today buy orders are filling at 24, I won’t buy again unless they fall.

I also still hold out hope that the 20K silver ore I have will someday by worth something too.

See how strange it is to jump topics?

fill free to post in those thread, about me complaining on the economy, I think you are getting off topic.

I’m really just talking about you, since you started this thread. I remember you and Wanz are discussing back and force about unidentified price. I’m not sure if Wanz really think dye will drop to like 10 silver. Or he just want to buy more.

I’m just flash backing your post. Since you say you’ll keep buying it. So if you think it’ll go up to 1 gold or something, 24 silver isn’t too high right?

Are you truly so slow that you cannot see that I am calling you out for changing the subject of MY THREAD? I wanted to know why 2.7 million unid buy orders popped up in literally one day and you bring in the fact that I think they will hit a gold so I better buy all of them, Yeah, let me get right on that, 60K on the market, lowest is roughly 25 silver so 2000 gold ought to do it, just send me in an in game message with that and I’ll split the profit with you. Troll elsewhere please.

I dont’ know if you are joking or serious. Do you think there are 2.6 million buy order on love struck protector skin?

I’m not sure if you even buy that many more than me. And I barely pay attention to the trading post.

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

You seem to have some issues with the GW2 economy, I read your other posts and you seem to think that anyone involved on the TP is ripping regular players off. You know who sets the prices? The people who buy things. You complain that others earn more at the TP than farming and you know, you’re right. But what does complaining do for you? It just wastes your time because they will continue to do what they do, that’s how a market based economy operates.

What does your reply to my post have anything to do with my point of seeing a HUGE jump in unid buy orders all on Friday, by the way? Because I posted on another thread that I will continue to buy if the price keeps dropping? Well, it climbed, my last order I paid 17.3 for another 500, today buy orders are filling at 24, I won’t buy again unless they fall.

I also still hold out hope that the 20K silver ore I have will someday by worth something too.

See how strange it is to jump topics?

fill free to post in those thread, about me complaining on the economy, I think you are getting off topic.

I’m really just talking about you, since you started this thread. I remember you and Wanz are discussing back and force about unidentified price. I’m not sure if Wanz really think dye will drop to like 10 silver. Or he just want to buy more.

I’m just flash backing your post. Since you say you’ll keep buying it. So if you think it’ll go up to 1 gold or something, 24 silver isn’t too high right?

Are you truly so slow that you cannot see that I am calling you out for changing the subject of MY THREAD? I wanted to know why 2.7 million unid buy orders popped up in literally one day and you bring in the fact that I think they will hit a gold so I better buy all of them, Yeah, let me get right on that, 60K on the market, lowest is roughly 25 silver so 2000 gold ought to do it, just send me in an in game message with that and I’ll split the profit with you. Troll elsewhere please.

The 2.7m buy orders look clearly like an attempt to pump up the price. This is the one form of market interaction which leaves me queasy — it looks like it trades on human gullibility in a way that’s harmful to the average player; I assume it’s because this pops the item in question up on the main page as popular. Changing the metric to use number of market participants instead of or in addition to raw # of items requested would probably be an improvement.

To see how it can work, look at the graph for “recipe: shadow of grenth” over all time:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/49481

You’ll see a spike in buy orders and prices — those were presumably almost all 1c buy orders which were canceled after the person doing that got what they wanted.

I’m happy to see unid dyes have risen back to 26s. Who knows if it’ll hover above 20s for a time.

Bad thing is I uninstalled the game and I can’t quite sell my stock now. Oh well. Guess I’m in it for the long haul.

/praysfor40s

Vol.7601:

I’m happy to see unid dyes have risen back to 26s. Who knows if it’ll hover above 20s for a time.

Bad thing is I uninstalled the game and I can’t quite sell my stock now. Oh well. Guess I’m in it for the long haul.

/praysfor40s

/ragequit

linuxotaku.4731:

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Cassocaster.4576:

laokoko.7403:

Well since dye is cheap now, you can buy all of them up Cassocaster, like you said you would.

I’m not sure if this is a right or wrong asnwer. Good luck on it.

You seem to have some issues with the GW2 economy, I read your other posts and you seem to think that anyone involved on the TP is ripping regular players off. You know who sets the prices? The people who buy things. You complain that others earn more at the TP than farming and you know, you’re right. But what does complaining do for you? It just wastes your time because they will continue to do what they do, that’s how a market based economy operates.

What does your reply to my post have anything to do with my point of seeing a HUGE jump in unid buy orders all on Friday, by the way? Because I posted on another thread that I will continue to buy if the price keeps dropping? Well, it climbed, my last order I paid 17.3 for another 500, today buy orders are filling at 24, I won’t buy again unless they fall.

I also still hold out hope that the 20K silver ore I have will someday by worth something too.

See how strange it is to jump topics?

fill free to post in those thread, about me complaining on the economy, I think you are getting off topic.

I’m really just talking about you, since you started this thread. I remember you and Wanz are discussing back and force about unidentified price. I’m not sure if Wanz really think dye will drop to like 10 silver. Or he just want to buy more.

I’m just flash backing your post. Since you say you’ll keep buying it. So if you think it’ll go up to 1 gold or something, 24 silver isn’t too high right?

Are you truly so slow that you cannot see that I am calling you out for changing the subject of MY THREAD? I wanted to know why 2.7 million unid buy orders popped up in literally one day and you bring in the fact that I think they will hit a gold so I better buy all of them, Yeah, let me get right on that, 60K on the market, lowest is roughly 25 silver so 2000 gold ought to do it, just send me in an in game message with that and I’ll split the profit with you. Troll elsewhere please.

The 2.7m buy orders look clearly like an attempt to pump up the price. This is the one form of market interaction which leaves me queasy — it looks like it trades on human gullibility in a way that’s harmful to the average player; I assume it’s because this pops the item in question up on the main page as popular. Changing the metric to use number of market participants instead of or in addition to raw # of items requested would probably be an improvement.

To see how it can work, look at the graph for “recipe: shadow of grenth” over all time:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/49481

You’ll see a spike in buy orders and prices — those were presumably almost all 1c buy orders which were canceled after the person doing that got what they wanted.

Wow… that is terrifying.

I remember before the initial nerf when they dropped a lot they were 2-3 silver each. Those were the good old days, where you could start a new character and buy 10-15 UIDs to start them off without spending anything. Then the first nerf came and suddenly they skyrocketed to 20+ and never looked back. I’m sitting on about 400 myself right now, mostly from the refund and I bought out 100 or so. Going to have to decide when to dump them.

I cashed out today for a small profit.

I don’t feel like risking it any longer.

Myst.5783:

I cashed out today for a small profit.

I don’t feel like risking it any longer.

Like the silver ore that I keep stacking up, this is a long term investment but if you can get a profit, take it, bird in the hand and all that….

linuxotaku.4731:

The 2.7m buy orders look clearly like an attempt to pump up the price. This is the one form of market interaction which leaves me queasy — it looks like it trades on human gullibility in a way that’s harmful to the average player; I assume it’s because this pops the item in question up on the main page as popular. Changing the metric to use number of market participants instead of or in addition to raw # of items requested would probably be an improvement.

To see how it can work, look at the graph for “recipe: shadow of grenth” over all time:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/49481

You’ll see a spike in buy orders and prices — those were presumably almost all 1c buy orders which were canceled after the person doing that got what they wanted.

I don’t think this is harming the average player – if anything, it’s exploiting the methods used by amateur TP profit-seekers.

The way to make money in this game isn’t to exploit the normal casual demand for items, it’s to exploit the other people who think they can play the trading post :>

It looks like they are headed back down in price now. It is crazy how the “high demand” tactic can really pump the price like that. I guess people freak out and think they should get them now?

Eulolia.2467:

linuxotaku.4731:

The 2.7m buy orders look clearly like an attempt to pump up the price. This is the one form of market interaction which leaves me queasy — it looks like it trades on human gullibility in a way that’s harmful to the average player; I assume it’s because this pops the item in question up on the main page as popular. Changing the metric to use number of market participants instead of or in addition to raw # of items requested would probably be an improvement.

To see how it can work, look at the graph for “recipe: shadow of grenth” over all time:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/49481

You’ll see a spike in buy orders and prices — those were presumably almost all 1c buy orders which were canceled after the person doing that got what they wanted.

I don’t think this is harming the average player – if anything, it’s exploiting the methods used by amateur TP profit-seekers.

The way to make money in this game isn’t to exploit the normal casual demand for items, it’s to exploit the other people who think they can play the trading post :>

I don’t think this just hurts speculators — though neither of us has data on it, I suspect that those who aren’t interested in speculation still get caught up and buy some when they see unid dyes on the most popular page of the trading post.

But regardless — this clearly facilitates transferring money from unsophisticated buyers to people who play the trading post more seriously … and in a way which doesn’t make the market more efficient. So I’ll stand by my claims that it’s not a positive thing in the game … it burns players who hear about trading but aren’t already sophisticated, and then they get kittened off and ask for nerfs to more productive aspects of the TP because they don’t understand what happened.

Still, if you’re trying to maximize your income, I understand why you (or someone else, whoever it was) would do it. It’s just one area where I’d be fine with ANet nerfing the tools.

it’s kind of like the quartz crystal. in the beginning people are hoarding them, which push the price up. and from time to time, some of the hoarder get impatient, and start dumping them, and other’s saw it and start dumping themself too and crash the price.

laokoko.7403:

it’s kind of like the quartz crystal. in the beginning people are hoarding them, which push the price up. and from time to time, some of the hoarder get impatient, and start dumping them, and other’s saw it and start dumping themself too and crash the price.

Just like real life.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania