Guild Wars 2

Before you continue, tl;dr warning.
If you don’t really want to know what you could experience from the Mystic Forge based on my time spent processing 4194 major runes** over the last 2 days, stop here. Oh, you’re still with me, good.

What did I learn and why should you care?

This is meant to be helpful, not in what you will get out of the forge. I am not going to get to the microscopic level of telling you that you have a .005% chance at pulling a travelers, RNG is RNG. This is trying to impart the experience of the process and the magnitude of consumption. I am going to tell you what to expect as far as what it’s going to cost you. Bottom line, you can make a ton of gold but it’s a grind and you need to do your homework.

First, some basic observations that were helpful to me but had to be learned the hard way:

1) You can put 4 of the same rune in…I had never tried it, the same exact results as combos, four of the same rarity and you’re golden

2) Watch out for soulbound majors(superiors as well) being spit back at you. THESE ARE TOXIC to your forging. Sell them outright or only batch them together as a single soulbound has a very good chance of giving another soulbound rune from the forge. Evil. Bring them to a vendor.

3) It takes money to make money. See ** below for what I spent. I won’t tell what I earned but it was enough to continue doing it with hundreds of runes still on order as I write this.

4) Be patient. You’ll see why in a second.

So, what I calculated was how many sets of 4 Major Runes it took to get my 248 superior runes which were then sold on the TP. 1 set of runes would 4, 2 sets, 8…you get the point. When you see the numbers, that is how many passes between superiors. These were processed at about 1200 hundred an hour in the vigil forge. I watched the incredibles and sorted some of my son’s Pokemon cards, yawn.

I run through 1-10 sets (then the real ugly numbers of above 10 sets per superior) and show how many superiors I got and how majors it took to get EACH one. The numbers are numbing towards the end of the scale.

Here we go:

1 set between superiors, 4 per superior: 48 superiors; cost: 192 major runes

2 sets between…, 8 per superior: 40 superiors; cost: 320 major runes

3 sets, 12 per superior: 30 superiors; cost: 360 major runes

4 sets, 16 per superior: 26 superiors; cost: 416 major runes

5 sets, 20 per superior: 25 superiors; cost: 500 major runes

6 sets, 24 per superior: 11 superiors; cost: 286 major runes

7 sets, 28 per superior: 22 superiors; cost: 616 major runes

8 sets, 32 per superior: 11 superiors; cost: 352 major runes

9 sets, 36 per superior: 7 superiors; cost: 252 major runes

10 sets, 40 per superior: 5 superiors; cost: 200 major runes

11 sets, 44 per superior: 4 superiors; cost: 176 major runes

12 sets, 48 per superior: 4 superiors; cost: 192 major runes

13 sets, 52 per superior: 2 superiors; cost: 104 major runes

14 sets, 56 per superior: 5 superiors; cost: 280 major runes

15 sets, 60 per superior: 4 superiors; cost: 240 major runes

16 sets, 64 per superior: 2 superiors; cost: 128 major runes

17-21, didn’t get any but:

22 sets, 88 per superior: 1 superiors; cost: 88 major runes

23 sets, 92 per superior: 1 superiors; cost: 92 major runes

Total superior runes: 248

Total major runes destroyed/forged: 4,194

If something isn’t clear, please ask. Thanks for reading,

“**”(all different varieties purchased on buy orders, average cost was 3.68 per rune for a total outlay of 151.82 gold. I will not go into “what” I got, as in which rune types, my choice in seed material was solely based on availability and price)

I keep trying to read that list as chronological, but I’m guessing it isn’t?

Neural.1824:

I keep trying to read that list as chronological, but I’m guessing it isn’t?

No, it’s how many “passes” of the Mystic Forge slot machine before I got another superior. For example, you get very lucky and drop 4 majors in and instantly get a superior. That superior cost you 4 majors, 1 “pass” of the slot machine.

But, it usually takes multiple passes to get another. My list shows how many passes I encountered. Make sense? I am really trying to show that it takes a lot of majors and sometimes you might roll the slot machine 20 plus times before it answers with a win.

To say why it’s worth it, out of those superiors, I got 12 travelers and 10 divinities. That’s about 210 gold before fees.

I don’t understand your data all. It seems like the only relevant information here is:
4194 major runes forged
248 superior runes obtained
average cost of major rune: 3.86s total cost: 151.82g
But you don’t tell us how much all the superior runes sold for.

Shufflepants.9785:

I don’t understand your data all. It seems like the only relevant information here is:
4194 major runes forged
248 superior runes obtained
average cost of major rune: 3.86s total cost: 151.82g
But you don’t tell us how much all the superior runes sold for.

Sorry I am not being clear. It’s a ton of data and you’re right, I don’t say what I made off of them because your results might vary. I am try to explain that you have to sit through hundreds of runes without any result. All the time thinking the money goes down a hole and it was all a waste.

Since the bottom line will be what this boils down to, I invested 151 gold, I earned back 260 gold, roughly 70% return in 2 days. I had to grind. It wasn’t fun and I got to the point of madness but my sample is large enough to show what volume you need to make the money, you have to be patient.

Surely 23 sets should be 70 major runes per superior, as you get 22 majors, which you just feed back in (92-22=70). As for the table itself, it’s just an experiment related to binomial distribution.

Your advice on soul bound runes is interesting however, now that I would have liked to see some data on.

At least with minor runes => major runes, I get plenty of “normal” runes out if I feed 3 “normal” with one soulbound. And I did get a sellable superior a couple of times feeding in only soulbound majors. Just not all are worth the conversion.

Cassocaster.4576:

To say why it’s worth it, out of those superiors, I got 12 travelers and 10 divinities. That’s about 210 gold before fees.

Why do you have to wreck perfectly good data by posting some donkeykitten one in a million anecdote?

Now I have to wonder what else in the original data you felt like making up to tell a better story. Once you provide evidence that you’re willing to make stuff up to get more attention, there’s no way anyone can ever take data you post seriously.

Got to inflate the price of major runes somehow.

Behellagh.1468:

Got to inflate the price of major runes somehow.

For real, after throwing 4000 runes into the forge I’d be tempted to pump and dump any remaining in my inventory back onto the trading post. Forging rare runes is good money (~15-20 gold an hour if you can click fast enough at the forge) but dear gods is it boring.

Ensign.2189:

Behellagh.1468:

Got to inflate the price of major runes somehow.

For real, after throwing 4000 runes into the forge I’d be tempted to pump and dump any remaining in my inventory back onto the trading post. Forging rare runes is good money (~15-20 gold an hour if you can click fast enough at the forge) but dear gods is it boring.

it would be nice if it really was ~15-20gold per hour, however in the long run it is pure RNG.
I had threw some extra gold at the forge today to see how well the runes would play out for me. I got some superiors that were ok in value, but I also had a streak of close to 100 forges in which I didn’t get any superiors at all, then I got 3 soul bound ones in a row.

I did this for a bit a little while back when they announced they would be updating runes. Saved the “meh” superiors in case they become worth something. It’s not bad gold, but agreed… it’s boring as all kitten.

Neural.1824:

it would be nice if it really was ~15-20gold per hour, however in the long run it is pure RNG.

It really is 15-20 gold per hour in the long run. It bounces around a bit with what individual runes sell for and what you can buy at, but it’s pretty consistent and has been for some time.

“In the long run it is pure RNG” is pure technobabble; it has the trappings of being insightful but doesn’t mean anything at all. What are you trying to say?

Neural.1824:

but I also had a streak of close to 100 forges in which I didn’t get any superiors at all

No, you didn’t. Unless you’re trying to tell us that you forged several million runes earlier.

Ensign.2189:

Neural.1824:

but I also had a streak of close to 100 forges in which I didn’t get any superiors at all

No, you didn’t. Unless you’re trying to tell us that you forged several million runes earlier.

Except amount of forges is not relevant. If a streak can happen it can happen immediately or never.

Ensign.2189:

Cassocaster.4576:

To say why it’s worth it, out of those superiors, I got 12 travelers and 10 divinities. That’s about 210 gold before fees.

Why do you have to wreck perfectly good data by posting some donkeykitten one in a million anecdote?

Now I have to wonder what else in the original data you felt like making up to tell a better story. Once you provide evidence that you’re willing to make stuff up to get more attention, there’s no way anyone can ever take data you post seriously.

I initially created this data not to show WHAT a person could earn but that seems to be the final consideration here. I am trying to show people what they can EXPECT when they start rune forging. It’s monotonous, it doesn’t matter what you feed in, RNG doesn’t care. So my point in bringing those 2 runes up is that those grab everyone’s attention and makes the point of the value of the effort.

People put 100 runes though the forge and expect that they make their money back. They might but more likely it will take 500, 1000 runes before you see a return.

As far as taking me seriously, gimme a break, I tracked this as I was interested in what the average casts per superior were and more than 50% of my runes took 5 casts or less. That’s what this is about, that’s all.

Cormac.3871:

Surely 23 sets should be 70 major runes per superior, as you get 22 majors, which you just feed back in (92-22=70). As for the table itself, it’s just an experiment related to binomial distribution.

Your advice on soul bound runes is interesting however, now that I would have liked to see some data on.

You are counting the returned runes as “free” in your statement but 22 casts is still 88 runes, no matter where they came from and the average cost has to represent that.

The soulbound runes however, those were pesky. If I put one in with three non soulbound runes, I would get a soulbound more often than not. I did not pursue this path since it is akin to throwing gold away. I will add that putting four soulbound in one pass is what I did do and I never got a soulbound back but that sampling was so small as to not be relevant. Try it but you have to churn through a bunch of normal runes, get a large sample, say 100 soulbound, and then bleed them into your mix in varying amounts comparing your control data to that of the soulbound runes….

Cassocaster.4576:

So my point in bringing those 2 runes up is that those grab everyone’s attention and makes the point of the value of the effort.

The point is that claiming to have gotten an extreme outlier of a result is not making an informative point of the value for the effort; it is, in fact, misleading people about the level of value for the effort.

If you really and truly did get 12 traveler’s and 10 divinities from that sample, you very likely just had the best luck with that many runes that anyone has ever had. It is in no way representative of what typically comes out of the forge when you throw in runes.

Realistically, you’re looking at getting around 4 of each from that many forges.

(EDIT – This market is enormous and you’ll randomly see streaks like this somewhere in the data set, but that doesn’t make it any more likely to show up in a particular, isolated test where someone is taking notes)

Ensign.2189:

Neural.1824:

it would be nice if it really was ~15-20gold per hour, however in the long run it is pure RNG.

It really is 15-20 gold per hour in the long run. It bounces around a bit with what individual runes sell for and what you can buy at, but it’s pretty consistent and has been for some time.

“In the long run it is pure RNG” is pure technobabble; it has the trappings of being insightful but doesn’t mean anything at all. What are you trying to say?

Neural.1824:

but I also had a streak of close to 100 forges in which I didn’t get any superiors at all

No, you didn’t. Unless you’re trying to tell us that you forged several million runes earlier.

Randomness dictates that it is completely possible for a person to forge a thousand times every day for several years and never once receive a superior. Anything beyond that means there is something else involved that forces a good result, which would therefore make it not random.

Ensign.2189:

The point is that claiming to have gotten an extreme outlier of a result is not making an informative point of the value for the effort; it is, in fact, misleading people about the level of value for the effort.

If you really and truly did get 12 traveler’s and 10 divinities from that sample, you very likely just had the best luck with that many runes that anyone has ever had. It is in no way representative of what typically comes out of the forge when you throw in runes.

Realistically, you’re looking at getting around 4 of each from that many forges.

(EDIT – This market is enormous and you’ll randomly see streaks like this somewhere in the data set, but that doesn’t make it any more likely to show up in a particular, isolated test where someone is taking notes)

I wish I could sort my sold items by price. Please don’t call me a liar. Not only did I get that many of each, I also got 2 divinities IN A ROW and that wasn’t the first time, it’s happened a total of four times, 2 times each with divinities and travelers. I don’t even know what the odds are of getting that, it’s way off the charts.

I notice you want to hone in on the good ones so let me also say that I got more than a full set of every soulbound rune. Baelfire, Forge, Monks, all. My magic find is 131%, I’ve spent around $700US on gems in the last year so maybe those impact me.

I really attempted to stay away from what came out of the forge as I was trying to say what you have to put in to get money back. Next time I will log everything but for now, here’s a screenshot of my selling a batch, sorted by price (please notice that in this set alone I have 6 travellers and 2 divinities):

Cassocaster.4576:

Next time I will log everything but for now, here’s a screenshot of my selling a batch, sorted by price (please notice that in this set alone I have 6 travellers and 2 divinities):

That batch would represent ~2/3 of your sample of 248.

Are you sure that you didn’t create a lot more than the 248 exotic runes used in the initial data set?

Ensign.2189:

Cassocaster.4576:

Next time I will log everything but for now, here’s a screenshot of my selling a batch, sorted by price (please notice that in this set alone I have 6 travellers and 2 divinities):

That batch would represent ~2/3 of your sample of 248.

Are you sure that you didn’t create a lot more than the 248 exotic runes used in the initial data set?

Funny, I count 63 runes in that image….whose math is circumspect? 2/3 of 248 would be 165.

This is my last post, you win, I made it all up and everyone just wasted their time reading my information. I’ll be sure to record the next time so you can peruse 6 hours of video footage to make sure I am not lying.

You have an issue friend, why you have it with me when I have done nothing but try to show people what it takes to forge runes successfully is beyond me. You cling to questioning my results when everyone’s results will be different. A point I have made numerous times.

Because I myself wanted to know, I went back through the last 1000 sales I have made on the TP. This takes me back 9 days from right now. In those 9 days I tallied the travelers and the divinities. I did not take screen shots so go ahead and call me a liar again but I forged 23 travelers and 18 divinities during that time frame.

I apologies to others for turning this thread into a defensive series of posts, I never intended for it to be anything but informational.

Cassocaster.4576:

Funny, I count 63 runes in that image….whose math is circumspect? 2/3 of 248 would be 165.

63 runes from the 22 shown of 48 total for sale; all the top runes are accounted for save Lyssa and Mesmer. There are 49 possible superiors you can pull. I ran a monte carlo for the remainder seeded by the distribution of those showing, assumed 3 random rare runes floating in your inventory (accounting for the missing superiors), predicted the 8 soulbound ones based on that distribution, and over 100k iterations got a mean prediction of a sample of ~152 from the runes shown. That’s a little less than 2/3 of the sample in the original post.

Cassocaster.4576:

why you have it with me

I take issue with attention grabbing brag posts that masquerade as informative, of which there are many. It takes very little effort to conjure up some bad numbers to make something look more authoritative, and that sort of crap has a nasty habit of becoming conventional wisdom.

Cassocaster.4576:

so go ahead and call me a liar again but I forged 23 travelers and 18 divinities during that time frame.

I apologize for calling you a liar; it seems apparent that you’re not trying to mislead people, you’re just sloppy and mixing and matching anecdotes with data. If you are trying to inform people, in the future, be very careful about doing that – when you start presenting anecdote as data and are sloppy about where you pull it from, you stop informing people and start misleading them.

Ensign.2189:

I apologize for calling you a liar; it seems apparent that you’re not trying to mislead people, you’re just sloppy and mixing and matching anecdotes with data. If you are trying to inform people, in the future, be very careful about doing that – when you start presenting anecdote as data and are sloppy about where you pull it from, you stop informing people and start misleading them.

Thank you for the apology, I will be more stringent with my results should I attempt this again.