(edited by BabelFish.7234)
A variable system to fix GW2's economy
dynamic drop rates? I think this is gonna be terrible =/
Don’t disturb me, I have a cat in me at the moment.
OP is a communist.
Wouldn’t that require ANet to eplicitly define the expected, acceptable price for every tradeable item?
Wouldn’t that require ANet to eplicitly define the expected, acceptable price for every tradeable item?
Or they could simply take the average price of each item and use that which in turn allows for inflation as the item price would also be variable.
This would be implemented by taking the daily price of each item and creating a average for said item which fluxuates according to supply/demand (but due to the system is limited in how large the swings will be) as well as being defined by overall trends.
All the system does is limit the boom/bust cycle, it doesn’t remove it and doesn’t take the control of prices away from the player-base.
OP is a communist.
This is actually a socialist system I’ve suggested. Learn your different types of government. :p
(edited by BabelFish.7234)
Not true, if the artificial supply increase doesn’t reset or diminish. The price would be expected to tend to fall to whatever prices they set as the pivot point for starting the drop rate inflation.
…and then people would just artificially inflate the prices in order to artificially deflate prices.
Not true, if the artificial supply increase doesn’t reset or diminish.
No mass bots=no artificial supply.
The price would be expected to tend to fall to whatever prices they set as the pivot point for starting the drop rate inflation.
The price would be variable, the only time the price would trend into a diminishing state would be if the demand consistently decreased.
…and then people would just artificially inflate the prices in order to artificially deflate prices.
In this system the impact of people artificially inflating and deflating is offset by 2 factors:
1) a delay between the inflation and deflation (much like what happens in the real world)
2) the “quarterly” economic cycles would be reduced in time to the point where boom and bust effects wouldn’t have lasting effects without having lasting trends of pricing which influences the average price.
This system is pretty much fool proof unless you get thousands of players together and they all start over or under bidding for weeks and weeks and weeks but that’s the thing: if the masses aren’t happy with something they have a right not to buy it and thus cause the prices to reduce.
No mass bots=no artificial supply.
The artificial supply I was referring to is the one you’re suggesting creating.
The price would be variable, the only time the price would trend into a diminishing state would be if the demand consistently decreased.
Wasn’t the whole point of your suggestion to force prices to tend down toward whatever you seem to think they should be by artificially increasing supply if the prices go higher?
In this system the impact of people artificially inflating and deflating is offset by 2 factors:
1) a delay between the inflation and deflation (much like what happens in the real world)
2) the “quarterly” economic cycles would be reduced in time to the point where boom and bust effects wouldn’t have lasting effects without having lasting trends of pricing which influences the average price.This system is pretty much fool proof unless you get thousands of players together and they all start over or under bidding for weeks and weeks and weeks but that’s the thing: if the masses aren’t happy with something they have a right not to buy it and thus cause the prices to reduce.
I’m not sure what you are talking about and referring to. Here is what I’m reading your suggestion to be: automatically increase drop rates proportional to price increases in the trading post. If the price rises X%, the drop rate rises X%. The average daily price is used to determine when this artificial drop rate increase kicks in, but that shouldn’t matter because the effect of raising drop rates would be to trend the prices back down toward the original price when this system was started, unless people are gaming the system.
Although, since you don’t suggest artificially reducing drop rates if prices fall, what you’re really suggesting is a system that would only support falling prices, never rising prices. Eventually you could expect everything on the trading post to cost 1c over vendor value.
(edited by SharedProphet.9324)
The artificial supply I was referring to is the one you’re suggesting creating.
The artificial supply that’s created sc al es (why is scales a friggin’ kitten word?) both ways, not just up (or the system would be dumb and broken…100% t6 mats and exotic drops is baaaaad lmao)
Wasn’t the whole point of your suggestion to force prices to tend down toward whatever you seem to think they should be by artificially increasing supply if the prices go higher?
This concept doesn’t trend anything downwards unless the item hits a steady 100% increase in value and maintains it for 14 days.
I’m not sure what you are talking about and referring to. Here is what I’m reading your suggestion to be: automatically increase drop rates proportional to price increases in the trading post. If the price rises X%, the drop rate rises X%. The average daily price is used to determine when this artificial drop rate increase kicks in, but that shouldn’t matter because the effect of raising drop rates would be to trend the prices back down toward the original price when this system was started, unless people are gaming the system.
Although, since you don’t suggest artificially reducing drop rates if prices fall, what you’re really suggesting is a system that would only support falling prices, never rising prices. Eventually you could expect everything on the trading post to cost 1c over vendor value.
The drop rates scale. Scaling works both ways (unless specified), if a item sees a trend of decreased value the drop rate will lower in the same manner as it would increase.
I definitely should have been more clear on the decreasing drop rates, ahaha, my bad.
(edited by BabelFish.7234)
This is actually similar to what happens in a lot of markets in the real world, no? The main thing that keeps those market in check is the presence of several of these “rich investors” who may compete against each other. If one rich investor sees signs of somebody buying up a market, he can do the same and try to crash the other guy’s speculation by dumping early.
The main thing that keeps those market in check is the presence of several of these “rich investors” who may compete against each other.
That’s not how the system works in a simplified, anonymous economy.
Each investor doesn’t see what others are investing in, they predict, rationalize and act on predicted trends or ride on the tailcoats of the people who predict correctly by noticing the beginning of artificial inflation.
What you’re describing is what the bots provided, large investors who constantly undercut the competition by selling items at lower then norm prices.
If one rich investor sees signs of somebody buying up a market, he can do the same and try to crash the other guy’s speculation by dumping early.
That’s called being a griefer and to grief in this manner you’d have to have way too much time on your hands, be incredibly wealthy and generally be one miserable kitten.
Not to mention it takes more then one person’s inventory to alter the market.
What actually happens is a rich player will see a trend with another rich player started, they will buy a substantial amount of the item and sit on it for as long as possible to maximize their profits. Selling early means less profits, there’s no reward for trying to screw the other players.
Real life economy doesn’t have drop rates so GW2=/=real life.
(edited by BabelFish.7234)
Just read another thread which supports my thesis
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/76013-buy-group/
We can’t let people organize, that wouldn’t be fair.
Seriously, if ArenaNet made any of your changes, I’d gladly leave this game myself.
OP is a communist.
This is actually a socialist system I’ve suggested. Learn your different types of government. :p
Both have failed every time they’ve been tried. Jeez, enough of us have to deal with this in real life, must we also be subjected to it in our video games?
This system is pretty much fool proof unless you get thousands of players together and they all start over or under bidding for weeks and weeks and weeks but that’s the thing: if the masses aren’t happy with something they have a right not to buy it and thus cause the prices to reduce.
That’s called a revolt and they often happen under extremely oppressive governments.
This is actually similar to what happens in a lot of markets in the real world, no? The main thing that keeps those market in check is the presence of several of these “rich investors” who may compete against each other. If one rich investor sees signs of somebody buying up a market, he can do the same and try to crash the other guy’s speculation by dumping early.
Yes and George Soros usually wins.
Just read another thread which supports my thesis
http://www.guildwars2guru.com/topic/76013-buy-group/We can’t let people organize, that wouldn’t be fair.
Seriously, if ArenaNet made any of your changes, I’d gladly leave this game myself.
I’m going to assume for the sake of argument that you belong to said group.
In real life insider trading is illegal for the same reasons that my system deters organized market manipulation. In fact this system is more lenient then the real life counterpart. You’re still able to organize under this system, however the impact your group tries to make is limited by reducing the period of time that your artificial boom/bust cycle will impact the average user.
This system prevents people like you from screwing over the masses for gold, while allowing you to still make a profit playing the TP like its wall street.
OP is a communist.
This is actually a socialist system I’ve suggested. Learn your different types of government. :p
Both have failed every time they’ve been tried. Jeez, enough of us have to deal with this in real life, must we also be subjected to it in our video games?
Sweden did it successfully and are currently one of the best countries in the world to live in with a incredibly low crime rate per capita and is home to a large portion of the world’s richest people despite having a larger economic impact on them.
Coincidence? I think not.
This system is pretty much fool proof unless you get thousands of players together and they all start over or under bidding for weeks and weeks and weeks but that’s the thing: if the masses aren’t happy with something they have a right not to buy it and thus cause the prices to reduce.
That’s called a revolt and they often happen under extremely oppressive governments.
Dear god, that is not a revolt. A revolt is what happened in the Russian revolution or what is currently happening in Syria. In the video game world a revolt is what happened with BioWare’s ME3 or Blizzard’s D3.
People revolt when one of two things happen:
1) the system is totally unfair to the masses (my system actually benefits the masses by limiting the amount of damage players like you can cause to the market)
2) when a product (or in real life-government) is so unsatisfactory that people feel they have been genuinely tricked, lied to and have lost their faith in the institution/company that provides said product.
Personally, I think the points you’ve made are dripping in bias and melodramatics.
This system clearly would hurt investors trying to manipulate the market (not invest, you can still invest in this system) and from what I’ve seen of you you’re one of the people who tries to manipulate behind the “scenes”.
This system would essentially be the newspaper to the nose that you deserve.
(edited by BabelFish.7234)
There’s a easy way to fix the economy.
1)Buy an item from the tp
2)It’s account bound
3)Bye bye traders, you won’t be missed.
Should’ve happened at release though, along with the anti bot campaign.
It’s not my fault if S/P is not popular !!!
(edited by Puru.4217)
In real life insider trading is illegal for the same reasons that my system deters organized market manipulation. In fact this system is more lenient then the real life counterpart. You’re still able to organize under this system, however the impact your group tries to make is limited by reducing the period of time that your artificial boom/bust cycle will impact the average user.
Please read these short articles, so that we are both on the same page. Then after you are done, we can talk about what is legal in the real world, what is legal in the game and if the game should mirror the real world.
Insider Trading
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_trading
Institutional Investors
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_investors
Market Manipulation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation
Murder
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder
Sweden did it successfully and are currently one of the best countries in the world to live in with a incredibly low crime rate per capita and is home to a large portion of the world’s richest people despite having a larger economic impact on them.
Coincidence? I think not.
Gullibility and self-delusion are dangerous, Sweden is not the socialist utopia that liberals would like us to believe. Additionally, you point to the one spot of false hope in the otherwise universal collapse of the current socialist European states (Greece, Spain, etc. etc.)
http://www.forbes.com/global/2001/0319/034.html
http://www.paoracle.com/SocialismWORKS!/index.php?sw=Sweden
Dear god, that is not a revolt. A revolt is what happened in the Russian revolution or what is currently happening in Syria. In the video game world a revolt is what happened with BioWare’s ME3 or Blizzard’s D3.
Were we not talking about real world examples? Revolts happen when you can leave the system in the real world. I can leave the game, I think it’s reasonable that we call massive amounts of people leaving a game a revolt. Because none off us are going to storm the offices or ArenaNet when we can just leave if we were not enjoying ourselves.
People revolt when one of two things happen:
1) the system is totally unfair to the masses (my system actually benefits the masses by limiting the amount of damage players like you can cause to the market)2) when a product (or in real life-government) is so unsatisfactory that people feel they have been genuinely tricked, lied to and have lost their faith in the institution/company that provides said product.
1) The last thing I want in a video game is all things “fair” for the masses. When there is nothing to strive for but mediocrity in a game, there is little reason to play. WoW changed the model of their game after they were purchased by Activism. The game has been continually dumbed down since then and “fairness” abounds. (see my post at the bottom of the third page of the “Gold per hour” thread for specific examples of what WoW did wrong and why I came to GW2).
2) As to this, I believe you should have more reason to attack ArenaNet for it’s current business model of selling randomness out of the cash shop, not my investing in the TP, which you could totally avoid if you didn’t want to play it, just as I totally avoid anything outside of the TP (except WvWvW)
Personally, I think the points you’ve made are dripping in bias and melodramatics.
This system clearly would hurt investors trying to manipulate the market (not invest, you can still invest in this system) and from what I’ve seen of you you’re one of the people who tries to manipulate behind the “scenes”.This system would essentially be the newspaper to the nose that you deserve.
You have not put forth a system, but an idea, and a bad one. It is based on a government system that when it fails, it fails spectacularly, and when it “succeeds” you have Venezuela and Cuba. Lastly, it relies on the premise that the video game world should mirror the real world, which it obviously shouldn’t.
(edited by Logun.5360)
There’s a easy way to fix the economy.
1)Buy an item from the tp
2)It’s account bound
3)Bye bye traders, you won’t be missed.Should’ve happened at release though, along with the anti bot campaign.
No, that is a terrible idea. Why on earth should I not be able to buy something, use it, and sell it later when I’ve got better gear?
Please read these short articles, so that we are both on the same page. Then after you are done, we can talk about what is legal in the real world, what is legal in the game and if the game should mirror the real world.
Insider Trading
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Insider_tradingInstitutional Investors
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Institutional_investorsMarket Manipulation
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Market_manipulation
I read all of them, what you’re doing is a perfect example of market manipulation, which is also against the law. My system would still allow you to do the things you’re doing but would limit the impact you as a individual have on the market.
Gullibility and self-delusion are dangerous, Sweden is not the socialist utopia that liberals would like us to believe. Additionally, you point to the one spot of false hope in the otherwise universal collapse of the current socialist European states (Greece, Spain, etc. etc.)
http://www.forbes.com/global/2001/0319/034.html
http://www.paoracle.com/SocialismWORKS!/index.php?sw=Sweden
Sweden is a socialist-based government, you point to irresponsible European countries to show that Sweden’s system doesn’t work? Last time I checked Grece and Spain were not Sweden.
Were we not talking about real world examples? Revolts happen when you can leave the system in the real world. I can leave the game, I think it’s reasonable that we call massive amounts of people leaving a game a revolt. Because none off us are going to storm the offices or ArenaNet when we can just leave if we were not enjoying ourselves.
Clearly you didn’t read that section properly, what you described is what happened with both ME3 and D3.
1) The last thing I want in a video game is all things “fair” for the masses. When there is nothing to strive for but mediocrity in a game, there is no little reason to play. WoW changed the model of their game after they were purchased by Activism. The game has been continually dumbed down since then and “fairness” abounds. (see my post at the bottom of the third page of the “Gold per hour” thread for specific examples of what WoW did wrong and why I came to GW2.
In this context fair for the masses means you can’t drive prices through the roof and then crash them on a whim and when you say things like this it indicates that you’d be better off in BP’s board room then on GW2. GW2 PvE isn’t competitive yet you’re trying to grind others beneath the heels of your boot…
2) As to this, I believe you should have more reason to attack ArenaNet for it’s current business model of selling randomness out of the cash shop, not my investing in the TP, which you could totally avoid if you didn’t want to play it, just as I totally avoid anything outside of the TP (except WvWvW)
There’s plenty of blame to go around. Anet made mistakes which allowed people like you to capitalize off of the mistakes by turning the current economy into a petting zoo for victims rheumatoid arthritis but instead of flinging mud I realize that some people will be driven to grief others and that some mistakes in design will be made, no one is perfect. Instead I suggest a fix that benefits everyone but the architects of the artificial inflation and deflation. It lets the system balance itself out through variables which adjust each time someone tries to force the market into doing something unnatural.
You have no put forth a system, but an idea, and a bad one. It is based on a government system that when if fails, if fails spectacularly, and when it “succeeds” you have Venezuela and Cuba. Lastly, it relies on the premise that the video game world should mirror the real world, which it obviously shouldn’t.
Communism=/=socialism. How can you mistake the two? The system that I’ve suggested allows your capitalist activities in the TP but with regulation to prevent exploitive behaviour.
In terms of economics there are a great many lessons we can learn about inflation and market manipulation from real life scenarios and apply the concept to GW2 in order to prevent abuse and a shrinking ’middle class" of players, which are the bread and butter of Anet.
So lets go over who wins
Anet
Casuals
Noobs
Who is hurt by this system?
Traders who artificially inflate the market and then cause crashes for their own profit
(normal traders who buy and sell within a 2-3 week period will be unaffected)
Your comment on the Rich in Sweden illustrates an ignorance the is common to liberals, and that is the difference between taxing income and taxing wealth.
You see, the wealthy already have their money and need only fear wealth taxes such as death, inheritance, and estate taxes. In 2005, Sweden abolished all of their wealth taxes, and that is is why the super wealthy moved there, because they’d rather pay an exorbitant income tax rate of 57% on $10,000,0000, ($5.7 million in taxes) instead of an estate tax rate of 55% on a $2,000,000,000 ($1.1 billion in taxes).
Taxing income is the main barrier of entry into the wealthy class and it hurts those who want to move up in life.
Taxing wealth is taxing the money you’ve already earned, a second time, at a much high rate. The greatest irony to me is that the primary reason that liberals advocate a wealth tax is “fairness”, when it’s obviously robbery by vote.
(edited by Logun.5360)
Who is hurt by this system?
Traders who artificially inflate the market and then cause crashes for their own profit
(normal traders who buy and sell within a 2-3 week period will be unaffected)
There are many valuable economic lessons that one can learn in this game and as such, not be forced to learn them in real life. I have never pumped and dump. I have been very straight forward in the “Gold per Hour” thread and made no secret about what I believe would happen, what I made happen, and what might happen. I have broken demand walls that were high and supply walls that were close the vendor price, thus increasing fluidity in the market. The only people who were hurt were the speculators who hoped to make a quick buck without having any idea what was going on. Despite what you may think, I’ve made my fortune not on the misfortune and exploitation in others but on sound, legal, earning principles that are used in the real market.
If you’d like to learn more about the real villains in the world, you need look no further than Liberal Demagogue Investor George Soros and his manipulation of the currency and oil markets.
(edited by Logun.5360)
Your comment on the Rich in Sweden illustrates an ignorance the is common to liberals, and that is the difference between taxing income and taxing wealth.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Socialism
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Communism
Don’t mention the word ignorant around me lest you want me to start uttering the word hypocrite.
You see, the wealthy already have their money and need only fear wealth taxes such as death, inheritance, and estate taxes. In 2005, Sweden abolished all of their wealth taxes, and that is is why the super wealthy moved there, because they’d rather pay an exorbitant income tax rate of 57% on $10,000,0000, ($5.7 million in taxes) instead of an estate tax rate of 55% on a $2,000,000,000 ($1.1 billion in taxes).
Taxing income is the main barrier of entry into the wealthy class. Taxing wealth is taxing the money you’ve already earned, a second time, at a much high rate. The greatest irony to me is that the primary reason that liberals advocate a wealth tax is “fairness”, when it’s obviously robbery by vote.
Without having liberals define their “wealth” tax this is nothing more then conjecture not to mention so far removed from the OP that I’d have no trouble calling this semantics and diversionary tactics to derail some pretty obvious facts: mainly being that you’re clearly the type of player that my system would hurt.
I really suggest you print off a resume and go apply at BP.
Who is hurt by this system?
Traders who artificially inflate the market and then cause crashes for their own profit
(normal traders who buy and sell within a 2-3 week period will be unaffected)There are many valuable economic lessons that one can learn in this game and as such, not be forced to learn them in real life. I have never pumped and dump. I have been very straight forward in the “Gold per Hour” thread and made no secret about what I believe would happen, what I made happen, and what might happen. I have broken demand walls that were high and supply walls that were close the vendor price. Despite what you may think, I’ve made my fortune not on the misfortune and exploitation in others but on sound, legal, earning principles that are used in the real market.
If you’d like to learn more about the real villains in the world, you need look no further than Liberal Demagogue Investor George Soros and his manipulation of the currency and oil markets.
I’m not calling you a villain. I think you’re a GW2 entrepreneur who is taking advantage of a chaotic market which has a by-product of hurting others.
Now excuse me while I read on this Soros guy, you make him out to be as evil and vile as Nathan Rothschild when he bought London by spreading false information of Napoleon winning the Napoleonic war.
Read up on him, he’s a good example of what happens when someone who’s good with finances and is morally ambiguous spots a weakness they can exploit.
The Rothschild incident I mentioned is a much better example of malicious, morally devoid profiteering.
(edited by BabelFish.7234)
Flippers really only get those who want their item ‘right nao’ or otherwise people that are willing to pay that ‘convenience tax’. Or at least this applies to commodity items like crafting mats.
When I first started playing, I always did the ‘buy now’ thing which meant that I was typically paying 20% more for the item then I couldve if I waited 5 minutes.
I now typically buy items using ‘Match highest buyer’ or manually bid for things. Same thing for selling. I’ve rarely had to wait more than 5 minutes for something to come in. Items in the trading post tend to move extremely quickly.
I’m not calling you a villain. I think you’re a GW2 entrepreneur who is taking advantage of a chaotic market which has a by-product of hurting others.
Now excuse me while I read on this Soros guy, you make him out to be as evil and vile as Nathan Rothschild when he bought London by spreading false information of Napoleon winning the Napoleonic war.
Read up on him, he’s a good example of what happens when someone who’s good with finances and is morally ambiguous spots a weakness they can exploit.
The Rothschild incident I mentioned is a much better example of malicious, morally devoid profiteering.
Babel,
I had sometime to reread the thread this afternoon and it occurred to me just how rude I was being to you. It was uncalled for. Regardless of our difference in opinion, I could have made my points without being so coarse but I didn’t. Please accept my sincerest apologizes.
I’m not calling you a villain. I think you’re a GW2 entrepreneur who is taking advantage of a chaotic market which has a by-product of hurting others.
Now excuse me while I read on this Soros guy, you make him out to be as evil and vile as Nathan Rothschild when he bought London by spreading false information of Napoleon winning the Napoleonic war.
Read up on him, he’s a good example of what happens when someone who’s good with finances and is morally ambiguous spots a weakness they can exploit.
The Rothschild incident I mentioned is a much better example of malicious, morally devoid profiteering.Babel,
I had sometime to reread the thread this afternoon and it occurred to me just how rude I was being to you. It was uncalled for. Regardless of our difference in opinion, I could have made my points without being so coarse but I didn’t. Please accept my sincerest apologizes.
You owe no apology, I didn’t consider that rude but none the less, apology accepted.
As someone who’s equally as schooled in economics (even if we’re from different camps) how would you fix this economic mess?
Thank you,
I haven’t been hit as hard as others but that is because my expenditures have been limited to buying bag space and my income has been more than sufficient cover those expenses. However, It was disheartening when the buying power of my gold in regards to the cash shop decreased by roughly 60% in a very short period of time. At that time, I had roughly 1500g which would have cost me $3,750 to purchase, had I bought my gold with real money right before the first major drop, I would have seen a loss of roughly, $2,250.
It is now much cheaper to create a guild and buy influence for bag slots, than it is to buy gems for an bag slot, bank slot, or character slot. Which to me, seems unintended.
I haven’t been playing the game outside of the TP much lately. In fact, I’m wearing the gear I made for myself when I first turned 80. But, when I consider that most people make their money farming (which gave terrible returns before the bot bans) and that they also have expenses like repair bills and way points, I would be really discouraged with the rapid raise in prices for things like pre-cursors and T6 mats.
All this being said, i think two things happened that caused the problem we see today. One, a vast supply of gold (maybe as high as 40% entire economy) was essentially converted (destroyed) with the launch of the Halloween. As I’ve stated in my other thread, I use a mutual/hedge fund strategy to make the majority of my gold, so every night I’m essentially buying and selling every raw material in the market. When the Halloween event went live, the trading post went dead (at least in everything other than candy corn). Now I’m exaggerating a bit but the decease in actively was incredibly reduced on the buying side of the market some in part by people doing other things but I believe it was mainly do to the destruction of huge portion of total GPD of GW2. Gold to Gems to Chest to…Candy Corn. The bots had yet to be banned so the supply side drove the entire market down to vendor price or near to it on many items because no one had any money…The house edge was so bad on those chest that ArenaNet had to create magic gold fountains to try and get some money back into the economy. Which leads into the second part of the problem. Magic gold fountains (crappy Hollaween item conversion in the Mystic Forge) and drastically reduce supply from bots. These two things, plus the introduction of Ascended gear, lead to a raising market and massive price increases on T6 items. And since a large amount of gold was added back to the economy through means other than cash to gems to gold. The decreased value of gold to gems remained roughly the same, obviously by intent.
You asked me how I’d fix the system? I really don’t know, especially with knowing so little of what is going on from the ArenaNet side. However, I think ArenaNet has created a serious problem for themselves. They have built a cash shop that generates the majority of it’s money from gambling. Players don’t want to gamble, they want to know the price of an item and then they can decide if they can afford it. Even so, it’s not so bad because it’s gambling, it’s bad because it’s gambling at terrible odds. How long could a casino stay in business if the house edge on blackjack was 99/1 instead of 51/49? Players spent tons of really money and got candy corn, some spent hundreds of dollars trying to get a chainsaw skin and got jack. Rightly so, they got mad and complained about it on the forums and ArenaNet acknowledged it. So next time around, instead of offering direct items, they again offered the gambling chests but wait, they doubled the odds… so now instead of 99/1, you had a 98/2 chance of getting what you want (I don’t know the percentage to get a chainsaw skin, i’m just using 99/1 as an example.)
I realize ArenaNet needs to make money, I can totally respect that and I’d like to support them. I’d buy power trader potions for straight cash if that was the only way they were offered. But they are in a dangerous position in terms of driving off long term customers for short term gain. If they don’t change their system, we will potentially see great swings because an increasingly smaller and smaller group of people will need to be persuaded to gamble to generate the cash they need, and they have tied cash, directly or almost directly, to the exchange rate of gold.
(edited by Logun.5360)
Thank you, …
Not related but…kind of. I have seen you post other places. That link that the OP put down…that guy is in your guild. MERC. And seeing how you operate, I would not be surprised if that is you. Not saying its wrong or right, I find it really interesting as a Finance major which is why I follow these threads. I do not want to build capital in game, I play dungeons and that is about it. But I like seeing how people are doing it.
But anyways. I would put my money down that you know that guild wars guru guy, if it is not you yourself.
If one rich investor sees signs of somebody buying up a market, he can do the same and try to crash the other guy’s speculation by dumping early.
That’s called being a griefer and to grief in this manner you’d have to have way too much time on your hands, be incredibly wealthy and generally be one miserable kitten.
That is called market pvp, and market pvp is best pvp.
[CIR] Crimson Imperium Reborn / Blacktide
Im not very good in economics, but I think the exploitation of TP leading to price hike is a concern.
I do agree with you Babel, on the issues that you have raised, but I could not help wondering, if Anet would need to regulate the market and based on your average price regulation, but would it lead to insufficient supply?
It’s like I know “commodity A” is rare, I will hold it, and release it slowly so that the price will increase gradually. I just have to sell each item more expansive than the other for it to hike slowly. If I have 100 with me, I will simply sell 1 or 2 in a day or two, or simply do not sell at all.
If everyone’s doing it, this leads to an artificial insufficient supply situation and that leads to rise in prices :x
I think some of the policies of the TP has to be evaluated from time to time, such as probably listing items that have yet to been listed.
E.g. At the start of the Xmas event, should I obtain a exotic candy staff cane (Presuming there’s such a thing :p) then I can choose to list it immediately.
Of course you may say, other people will list it cheaper but look, If I list it at 500g, I doubt the price varies can’t be lower than 490g. I know the place orders part could mean some people just get it at a super low price (some people sell things without checking) and a huge profit will be made.
Hahax, I like the way you and Logun make Gw2 like a small nation to govern, but somehow I guess we wont know the figures unless Anet discloses and that we don’t get to produce like firms in analogy, “output” —> drop rates.
Actually, GW2 IS Communist in nature – all means of production are state (Anet) owned, Anet determines the remuneration for our work (drop rates, event and dungeon rewards) according to their best estimate of our needs, etc. That’s what communism is really about.
But that’s not what is discussed here: this is a matter of market regulation. Markets are regulated everywhere. If they are not, market anomalies soon grow into much more serious trouble, and even the most hard hearted capitalist eventually discovers that Fortress walls and bodyguards for the kids to go to school cost him more than a working social security system.
As for the OP’s suggestion, I’d prefer the drop rates remain static, but that alternative ways of material procurement were made available. You might get a drop you want at random, but you also KNOW that you can always go do something specific to get a specific reward. Say… we have butter as the current random drops. Then, you put up a “Dairy” themed dungeon, where you KNOW you can go and get 10 sticks of butter in an hour of work, protecting cows from rustlers, churning milk and so on. By default, this would mean a lot more work than the existing TP prices, but in case of anomalies, you could go get the items “the hard way”. Thus, the economy would still work – except in the extreme cases, where intervention would be needed anyway.
Here’s a breakdown of what the real issue is:
I believe you’re getting a bit off track, and the actual order of events is slightly different:
1) There is a significant reduction in the supply of a commodity – or a significant increase in the demand for a commodity.
2) Lack of supply or increasing demand cause prices to increase (this is where the banning of bots factors in). This change in price is gradual as existing inventories of the commodity are worked through.
3) Rich investors buy large amounts of commodities. This, fundamentally, serves to drive the price of the commodity closer to its long run natural rate.
4) Other investors see the large shift in the price of the commodity and begin buying as well. They are momentum trading and helping to inflate a commodity bubble.
5) When the rich investors deem the prices have peaked they sell the commodity.
6) The price of the commodity crashes down to its fundamental level.
7) Find another market opportunity.
The assumption that investors can profitably inflate and deflate bubbles without any changes in the fundamentals is extremely shaky. Any money being made off a boom / bust cycle like this depends on an asymmetric rising and falling demand curve from momentum trading, and a gap large enough to squeeze profits over a 15% transaction tax. I haven’t seen a whole lot of examples of that.
Where you do see big shifts, and a lot of money being made, is in places where there’s a shift in the fundamentals that hasn’t been reflected in the price level. The forum community loves to talk about chocolate bars and they’re actually a great example of how this works. It all started with the reduction in the drop rate, which lowered the long run supply of chocolate, but barely moved the short run supply, and the price, because there was a very large inventory available to be worked through. Over time, however, this supply was worked through. You can see this clearly on the supply charts for the trading post.
Once that supply was worked through it was clear that the price was going to spike. Savvy investors took advantage of this by buying up a ton of underpriced (in the long run) chocolate and sat, waiting for the inventory to be worked through. Once that inventory was worked through, the price spiked. We can see now that the long run price, at least at current fundamentals, is around a 70c-80c buy/sell spread. During the price spike, there was a lot of momentum trading, and a lot of effort to drive prices even higher – but you can see how the market reacted every time it was driven higher, it very quickly crashed back down towards its long term fundamentals.
You can also see the slight depression in the price after the spike, which is from a slight oversupply while people unwind their positions.
I won’t claim for a moment that there wasn’t money to be made off of the wild swings in price during the bubble build-ups – though making money off that is a tricky proposition, since money spent inflating the bubble has to be treated as a loss leader with the hope that momentum trading from others will drive the price to the point where you can turn a profit. But the bulk of the money being made was off of fundamentals investment – that the price was going to spike, naturally, and those who saw it coming made their money.
This is one of the strengths of a market. This is working as intended.
That said, some amount of variation in the drops rates based on relative trading post prices can be a good thing – namely, in the way that the supply of certain goods is naturally coupled (such as the various herbs through nodes), and a reactive drop system can help there by smoothing out the supplies so that the price of one can increase without tanking the markets of everything else off that node. That said, this sort of reactive pricing should be fairly limited in scope – prices can and should bounce around, and as long as players can react by farming different areas or crafting different goods this is a good thing for the health of the game.
I seriously love these suggestions: it just shows why regulations in the real world are able to be so screwed up without the public going in the a frenzy.
I’m sure to OP is off posting another ridiculous theory elsewhere, but just in case I’ll attempt to educate you in high school economics.
What you’re suggesting would mean that a person who buys up a significant amount just below the average price would then see prices rise due to an automatic decreased in supply. Once prices rise supply automatically increases meaning that prices drop but only drop down to the average price. The investor can now simply wait out any spikes for the price to go back to the average price and then sell at a guaranteed profit.
However since supply to inverse to price, all investors know that prices are essentially fixed, and therefore will act accordingly. This will mean investors will get rich without risk, and the ‘market’ will essentially be a vendor that charges retail purchasers a fee which is distributed to rich investors.
You’ve managed to help the very people you believe are evil at the expense of the ‘little guy’.
Congratulations.
Make precursors souldbound or acc bound. Let’s see what happens.
Make precursors souldbound or acc bound. Let’s see what happens.
That’d be a much better idea if there was only one precursor for all weapon types. What is an elementalist going to do with Dusk though? Level an alt to 80 and save it for them?
Commander Acraina – 80 Elementalist
Borlis Savers [BS]
For the Pass!
Borlis Savers [BS]
For the Pass!
Make precursors souldbound or acc bound. Let’s see what happens.
That’d be a much better idea if there was only one precursor for all weapon types. What is an elementalist going to do with Dusk though? Level an alt to 80 and save it for them?
I’m sure ANet could have an idea to what to do with such items if they do not fit for someone, after all they.. well… develop the game.
Make precursors souldbound or acc bound. Let’s see what happens.
That’d be a much better idea if there was only one precursor for all weapon types. What is an elementalist going to do with Dusk though? Level an alt to 80 and save it for them?
I’m sure ANet could have an idea to what to do with such items if they do not fit for someone, after all they.. well… develop the game.
they have. if you do not want/do not need an item, you can sell iton the TP.
There’s a easy way to fix the economy.
1)Buy an item from the tp
2)It’s account bound
3)Bye bye traders, you won’t be missed.Should’ve happened at release though, along with the anti bot campaign.
This should definitely be the case. Item is gotten as a drop and can be sold on the trading post. If you buy it, it becomes account bound. No reason a few people should be able to buy gold from the farmers, turn around and buy up mats/items on the auction house just to screw over the economy. Yes, I get that it’s like the real world, and we see how well that is going don’t we?
Lost in the Maguuma [TC]
Te Nosce [TC]
Te Nosce [TC]
Just a thought. Everyone knows about bot farmers. Is there evidence yet of bot traders?
Wall Street is full of program trading. Same idea can be used in GW2 TP. Should I have even mentioned this?
Why are you people complaining of TP flippers? You all have the same spread information at your finger tips. As a flipper, I take a lot of risk buying, holding, and selling items. In some cases I lose a lot of silver/gold.
Quit trying to find fault with the economy. It is truly supply and demand that is the issue. With the bots, they created a huge supply and prices went down.
Now that they are gone, prices are up and hard to find items are sky high. You cannot have it both ways.