Guild Wars 2

So I was lucky enough to get an abyss dye from a unid drop – do I sell it now, or wait for a price increase (hopefully) after update, or use the dye?

Depends on how long you are willing to hang on it it. Yes it will probably raise in price after the patch but not until months or a year afterwards when the excess supply of dyes gets used up.

Why not consume it? It’ll be account-bound after the update, and perhaps you’ll make a character that’ll look good with abyss dye? Can’t go wrong with abyss black, I say.

That’s what I’d do anyways. I have no idea what this update will do to dye prices. I mean, yeah, there’ll be no more drops, but it was such a low chance anyways, and the laurel merchants aren’t going anywhere either, so dye prices might not even be affected that much.

So yeah, I’d say use it. Sorry if that doesn’t help you in your decision-making.

• Use
  If you use the dye then you will always have Abyss available to all characters you currently have and will ever have. How much is having that unlocked worth to you? – 5g, 20g, 40g, 80g?

• Sell Now/Hold
  If you need the coin now or don’t want to play the guessing game of when to sell for maximum coin, then if you sell it now to the highest buy order then you are guaranteed to get around 25 gold.
  If you hold on to it then there is the definite possibility that prices of expensive dyes will fall and you could end up selling for less than 25g in the future.
  There is also the definite possibility that prices of currently expensive dyes could rise after the patch.
  However the prices are likely to both rise and fall in the wake of the patch and knowing when to sell to maximize the amount of coin you get for the dye will be difficult to know.

If you don’t need the coin immediately and are even remotely interested in unlocking the dye for your account, it couldn’t hurt to hang on to it until after the 15th.

• If price goes up and stays up, then you can sell it for a lot more than you would right now.
• If price goes down and stays down, then you can still just eat the dye to unlock it for your account.
• If the prices goes up but seems that it may come back down below the current price, then you can sell it high and then buy another one after the price drops to unlock for your account. This would leave you with it unlocked as well as having some coin.

There are some threads discussing dyes and their post-15th prices nearby (this for one) that have many opinions shared by players. Many of these opinions are pretty logical, though we will not know for sure how it will play out until it happens.
However, with the massive influx of players getting unidentified dyes for their duplicate unlocks, I am sure there are likely to be several more abyss going up for sale than there normally have been due to the sudden boost of opened unidentified dyes. Unfortunately, this is also speculation as we do not know if the unidentified dyes we will be granted for duplicate dyes will be account bound and unsellable, as well as their identified products being account bound to prevent a massive influx of dye supply heading out into the market.

It’s all speculation and personal preference.

• Eat it and have it forever
• Sell now and get the gold you can get while you know you can get it
• Hold it and possibly sell for much less later on or end up eating it and have it forever if it goes lower in price than it is worth to you to have it unlocked
• Hold it and sell it for much more than that it currently sells for.
  • And if the prices later goes down super low you can always buy another real cheap to unlock and have some gold to show for holding off.

Personally, I sold an abyss many months ago that I got from a dropped unidentified dye for about 28 gold. I finally just bought abyss the other day with a buy order for about 25 gold mainly because I wanted it immediately and before any price changes happen after the 15th. If I could have waited and got Abyss for 5g in a few weeks, I don’t mind the extra cost I paid to have it now as 20g isn’t that much to me. If Abyss ends up only going up in price, then I got a good deal grabbing it now over later on as I will never pay more than 30g for a dye even with it getting unlocked for my account.

If you can afford to hold onto it, I would.

The number of overall dyes will be decreasing, but they will be for the entire account. IMO this means that highly desired rare dyes will become more valuable while the less desired easier to obtain ones will drop in price.

I’ll be holding onto mine for at least 6 months.

please sell it right after the update, I’m looking for it to completely tank in price to buy it.

I’m in no hurry to use the dye – so right now the best move appears to be wait post 15th and beyond. If it tanks, I’ll use. If it goes up, I’ll sell it for the gold.

I think dye prices will go up after 4/15. I figure prices will spike a bit immediately after the patch, and then settle a little, but will then steadily rise over months as the excess dyes are purchased from the TP and re-supply drops off.

For example:
Dye X today: 5g
Dye X 4/15: 8g
Dye X 4/25: 6g
Dye X 8/15: 10g
Dye X 11/15: 20g

There really is no way to tell what direction dyes will go long-term after April 15th. There are good arguments for both directions.

Seras.5702:

I think dye prices will go up after 4/15. I figure prices will spike a bit immediately after the patch, and then settle a little, but will then steadily rise over months as the excess dyes are purchased from the TP and re-supply drops off.

For example:
Dye X today: 5g
Dye X 4/15: 8g
Dye X 4/25: 6g
Dye X 8/15: 10g
Dye X 11/15: 20g

How do you explain dyes to rise in price from now until the end of the month, when millions of new dyes will enter the market on patch day and demand will arguably be way lower than pre patch?

Wanze.8410:

Seras.5702:

I think dye prices will go up after 4/15. I figure prices will spike a bit immediately after the patch, and then settle a little, but will then steadily rise over months as the excess dyes are purchased from the TP and re-supply drops off.

For example:
Dye X today: 5g
Dye X 4/15: 8g
Dye X 4/25: 6g
Dye X 8/15: 10g
Dye X 11/15: 20g

How do you explain dyes to rise in price from now until the end of the month, when millions of new dyes will enter the market on patch day and demand will arguably be way lower than pre patch?

4/15 will bring something new. People love new stuff. And the account bound wardrobe means people will be throwing money at the TP fine-tuning their looks on all their characters, swapping armors and snagging dyes not yet unlocked. I’m just guessing that people who couldn’t justify spending 5g for a single dye for a single character will see it as a decent investment being account bound.

As demand goes down, so too will supply. But the supply will dry up pretty hard in a few months and so prices will go up steadily. New players and those with lots of alts desiring new looks will keep buying dyes, despite the lack of new dyes hitting the market.

I think these price projections will only apply to the higher priced and really good looking dyes, like Celestial and the like. The low price ones like Peach Ice will go down over time.

This is just the logic that justifies my speculation. It could be completely wrong. I’ve never been a TP profit player.

Seras.5702:

Wanze.8410:

Seras.5702:

I think dye prices will go up after 4/15. I figure prices will spike a bit immediately after the patch, and then settle a little, but will then steadily rise over months as the excess dyes are purchased from the TP and re-supply drops off.

For example:
Dye X today: 5g
Dye X 4/15: 8g
Dye X 4/25: 6g
Dye X 8/15: 10g
Dye X 11/15: 20g

How do you explain dyes to rise in price from now until the end of the month, when millions of new dyes will enter the market on patch day and demand will arguably be way lower than pre patch?

4/15 will bring something new. People love new stuff. And the account bound wardrobe means people will be throwing money at the TP fine-tuning their looks on all their characters, swapping armors and snagging dyes not yet unlocked. I’m just guessing that people who couldn’t justify spending 5g for a single dye for a single character will see it as a decent investment being account bound.

As demand goes down, so too will supply. But the supply will dry up pretty hard in a few months and so prices will go up steadily. New players and those with lots of alts desiring new looks will keep buying dyes, despite the lack of new dyes hitting the market.

I think these price projections will only apply to the higher priced and really good looking dyes, like Celestial and the like. The low price ones like Peach Ice will go down over time.

This is just the logic that justifies my speculation. It could be completely wrong. I’ve never been a TP profit player.

But as people already know that their unlocked dyes will be available to every character after the patch, why would they wait until after the patch to buy the dye and not already have done it now?

Also, if the low price dyes go down in price even more, so will the rare dyes because people start throwing the fine/masterwork dyes into the forge.

But good luck with your strategy.

Just use it and enjoy the game wearing it. C’mon it’s not that complicated.

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

Behellagh.1468:

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

I dare you to show me a regular dye that gained value in the last 7 days.

Wanze.8410:

Behellagh.1468:

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

I dare you to show me a regular dye that gained value in the last 7 days.

Not in the last seven days. The announcement was over two weeks ago and elevated the price of basic dyes by 5-10×.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/20666-citrus-ice-dye

Switch to month view.

Now masterwork and rare dyes weren’t affected as much if at all in terms of a price hike.

Behellagh.1468:

Wanze.8410:

Behellagh.1468:

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

I dare you to show me a regular dye that gained value in the last 7 days.

Not in the last seven days. The announcement was over two weeks ago and elevated the price of basic dyes by 5-10×.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/20666-citrus-ice-dye

Switch to month view.

Now masterwork and rare dyes weren’t affected as much if at all in terms of a price hike.

I think that would be more accurately described as a low supply item being bought out for speculation purposes rather than an actual increase in value. The price of the dye “went up” only because the only ones left on the market were those that were priced too high for the speculators to gamble on.

Behellagh.1468:

Wanze.8410:

Behellagh.1468:

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

I dare you to show me a regular dye that gained value in the last 7 days.

Not in the last seven days. The announcement was over two weeks ago and elevated the price of basic dyes by 5-10×.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/20666-citrus-ice-dye

Switch to month view.

Now masterwork and rare dyes weren’t affected as much if at all in terms of a price hike.

Well, you said “right now” and not 10 days ago.
Just wanted to point out that the dye market is declining since the initial spike.

Wanze.8410:

Behellagh.1468:

Wanze.8410:

Behellagh.1468:

It’s fear of the unknown that is driving up the dye, sigil and rune markets right now.

I dare you to show me a regular dye that gained value in the last 7 days.

Not in the last seven days. The announcement was over two weeks ago and elevated the price of basic dyes by 5-10×.

http://www.gw2tp.com/item/20666-citrus-ice-dye

Switch to month view.

Now masterwork and rare dyes weren’t affected as much if at all in terms of a price hike.

Well, you said “right now” and not 10 days ago.
Just wanted to point out that the dye market is declining since the initial spike.

As in the present as oppose to months ago in reference to items spiking. Right now it’s dyes, runes and sigils. In the past it was items like iron and copper ore. All due to changes in the game, confirmed or rumored.

This is what I think will happen:

Assumption: Unidentified Dyes are not account bound.

1. Unidentified dyes will drop quickly to 10-12s before rebounding to about 20s. It will drop quickly and low due to initial orders being filled to get a quick return. Speculators, flippers, and normal buyers will enter the market to take advantage of the flood, causing the price to stabilize.

2. Stabilized pricing for unidentified dyes will cause people to open them gambling on getting the expensive dyes to fill those orders. This will cause a new wave of dyes to enter the market.

Initially, there will be a spike before unidentified dyes are opened and new supply is added, but it probably won’t be dramatic or last long. The spike will be from people filling sell orders while the majority will create buy orders.

However, many dye speculators will do two things:
1. React to the prices going up and start unloading dye.
2. Panic unload dye and push prices down as fewer of the orders continue to be filled.

My expectations on dye prices:

Rare will probably lose about 30-40% of their value initially. This will not last and slowly increase by about 10-15% depending on the initial drop. The demand will increase more than other dyes due cost factors, but supply will also be more limited due to scarcity.

Uncommon will drop slower than common, but decrease to about 10s.

Common will drop the most because these markets were the most affected by speculators. I would guess that they will drop into the coppers and maybe rebound to 1s.

Assumption: Unidentified Dyes are account bound.

1. Unidentified dyes will increase in price as speculators buy inventory in the hopes of future price increase like what happened previously. Other speculators will unload the dye at the higher prices or buy unidentified dyes to fill the high buy orders. It will stabilize quickly, but be lower than what it is currently, probably around 30s.

2. Account bound unidentified dyes will be opened, flooding the market with colored dyes. Prices will start going into nearly a free fall as inventory is used to fill current buy orders.

Many dye speculators will panic unload dye continuing the free fall.

At this point, flippers will take advantage of the free fall and stabilize the market.

Rare will probably lose about 60% of their value initially. They will probably not rally more than to about 50% of current values.

Uncommon will probably lose about 80% of current values.

Common will drop the most because these markets were the most affected by speculators. These will quickly drop into the coppers and stay there.

In either case, over time, the prices of dyes will increase over the initial fall but the market is different.

Demand will come from new players or players that didn’t fill the color palette initially.
Supply will come from speculators and investors that are trying to get those rare dyes and players gambling to get colors rather than buying them directly.

Demand will be much smaller as will supply. The equilibrium pricing will be based on investors and how much is a good return.

Other markets affected: gathering items used to create colored unidentified dyes.
I see this market collapsing as well. The only items that will retain much value are those used in other valued recipes.

brittitude.1983:

This is what I think will happen:

Assumption: Unidentified Dyes are not account bound.

1. Unidentified dyes will drop quickly to 10-12s before rebounding to about 20s. It will drop quickly and low due to initial orders being filled to get a quick return. Speculators, flippers, and normal buyers will enter the market to take advantage of the flood, causing the price to stabilize.

2. Stabilized pricing for unidentified dyes will cause people to open them gambling on getting the expensive dyes to fill those orders. This will cause a new wave of dyes to enter the market.

Initially, there will be a spike before unidentified dyes are opened and new supply is added, but it probably won’t be dramatic or last long. The spike will be from people filling sell orders while the majority will create buy orders.

However, many dye speculators will do two things:
1. React to the prices going up and start unloading dye.
2. Panic unload dye and push prices down as fewer of the orders continue to be filled.

My expectations on dye prices:

Rare will probably lose about 30-40% of their value initially. This will not last and slowly increase by about 10-15% depending on the initial drop. The demand will increase more than other dyes due cost factors, but supply will also be more limited due to scarcity.

Uncommon will drop slower than common, but decrease to about 10s.

Common will drop the most because these markets were the most affected by speculators. I would guess that they will drop into the coppers and maybe rebound to 1s.

Assumption: Unidentified Dyes are account bound.

1. Unidentified dyes will increase in price as speculators buy inventory in the hopes of future price increase like what happened previously. Other speculators will unload the dye at the higher prices or buy unidentified dyes to fill the high buy orders. It will stabilize quickly, but be lower than what it is currently, probably around 30s.

2. Account bound unidentified dyes will be opened, flooding the market with colored dyes. Prices will start going into nearly a free fall as inventory is used to fill current buy orders.

Many dye speculators will panic unload dye continuing the free fall.

At this point, flippers will take advantage of the free fall and stabilize the market.

Rare will probably lose about 60% of their value initially. They will probably not rally more than to about 50% of current values.

Uncommon will probably lose about 80% of current values.

Common will drop the most because these markets were the most affected by speculators. These will quickly drop into the coppers and stay there.

In either case, over time, the prices of dyes will increase over the initial fall but the market is different.

Demand will come from new players or players that didn’t fill the color palette initially.
Supply will come from speculators and investors that are trying to get those rare dyes and players gambling to get colors rather than buying them directly.

Demand will be much smaller as will supply. The equilibrium pricing will be based on investors and how much is a good return.

Other markets affected: gathering items used to create colored unidentified dyes.
I see this market collapsing as well. The only items that will retain much value are those used in other valued recipes.

Nice analysis, i would sign most of it.

But to me it looks like you didnt take into account that you can upgrade dyes in the forge, which would alter your suggested market reaction, i think.

Dyes will no longer drop, and have less sources…
But if they can still craft them, people will craft random rare gray dies more often.
And people will only need to get one. So people with more characters will no longer need to buy many for their characters.

So you’ll have to decide what you think will happen with more intensity:
- Demand increase due to less sources.
- Demand decrease due to accounts using them instead characters.

Which one do you think will affect the prices more?

My suggestion:
- If you don’t have it in any character: Use it. You may want it later and regret selling it.
- If you have it in at least one character: Sell it. Using it with any other character again will only provide you another unidentified dye after dyes become account-wide, which will sell for less, and be highly unlikely to produce another Abyss.

My suggestion is to hold onto any dyes you’re looking to profit on until long after the 4/15 update. At minimum 6mos, but likely more. If you don’t know if you’ll still be playing that far in the future, then for the love of god sell sell sell!!!

If you want to speculate then sell this dye and for that gold buy something that you know it’s price will go up.

Wanze.8410:

Nice analysis, i would sign most of it.

But to me it looks like you didnt take into account that you can upgrade dyes in the forge, which would alter your suggested market reaction, i think.

I usually forget forgers, sorry about that. However, in reviewing the summary, I would have to say that I would leave most of it unchanged even considering these players.

Initially, the volatility of the market makes it highly risky to try to buy and forge within the first day or two. I would expect stabilization to occur within the first 24 hours, although not equilibrium.

Once prices stabilize, dye forgers could increase demand on the lower valued dyes they want to use; however, the market may be more stable, but the pricing will continue to decline due to decreasing demand and supply entering the market.

The changing prices makes forging for profit much riskier and I would expect most forgers understand the market relatively well enough to avoid the high risk and wait for prices to drop further. With a limited role in the initial turmoil of the dye market, there would be little change within this time from forgers on supply and demand.

Once the equilibrium on the pricing seems to have occurred, probably within two to three weeks, I would expect forgers to increase the demand on the lower priced dyes. However, with the decrease in most of the prices for rare dyes that I expect, the profitability will be decreased and the risk increased to the point where most will move to other less risky and/or more profitable markets.

With that said, the changes to the mystic forge that have been hinted at could make this theory completely inaccurate.

brittitude.1983:

Wanze.8410:

Nice analysis, i would sign most of it.

But to me it looks like you didnt take into account that you can upgrade dyes in the forge, which would alter your suggested market reaction, i think.

I usually forget forgers, sorry about that. However, in reviewing the summary, I would have to say that I would leave most of it unchanged even considering these players.

Initially, the volatility of the market makes it highly risky to try to buy and forge within the first day or two. I would expect stabilization to occur within the first 24 hours, although not equilibrium.

Once prices stabilize, dye forgers could increase demand on the lower valued dyes they want to use; however, the market may be more stable, but the pricing will continue to decline due to decreasing demand and supply entering the market.

The changing prices makes forging for profit much riskier and I would expect most forgers understand the market relatively well enough to avoid the high risk and wait for prices to drop further. With a limited role in the initial turmoil of the dye market, there would be little change within this time from forgers on supply and demand.

Once the equilibrium on the pricing seems to have occurred, probably within two to three weeks, I would expect forgers to increase the demand on the lower priced dyes. However, with the decrease in most of the prices for rare dyes that I expect, the profitability will be decreased and the risk increased to the point where most will move to other less risky and/or more profitable markets.

With that said, the changes to the mystic forge that have been hinted at could make this theory completely inaccurate.

Well, personally i can only estimate how much UIDs will flood the market but i guess it will be at least 5 million, based on 1 million active accounts and 5 duplicate dyes per account but it could be very well be alot more rather than less than 5 million.

That is 8 times more than all current buy orders for UIDs and identified dyes combined:

UID buy orders: ~260k
Common Dyes: 181 different dyes with an average demand of 2000 per dye ~362k
Uncommon Dyes: 119 different dyes with an avery demand of 300 per dye ~36k
Rare Dyes: 82 different dyes with an average demand of 300 per dye ~25k

So thats 683k buy orders overall.

Its also fair to assume that many of those buy orders are in the low value range that have maybe even existed for over a year and were posted by accounts now inactive.

Of course, after the patch hits, many speculators wil post more orders, slowing down the price tank a bit before they realize how much they burn their wallet.

After the UIDs crash in price, people will ID them to at least cash in on the inflated buy orders on those as long as they are available.

So lets assume 50% of the UIDs get identified.
Chances are roughly 65% to get a common dye, 25% to get a uncommon dye and 10% to get a rare dye.

The relation of buy order volume is:
Common: 86% of total buy orders
Uncommon: 9% of total buy orders
Rare: 6% of total buy orders

Which will mean that uncommon dyes will crash first, then rares, then uncommon, depending on how the bids are spread between 1c and highest actual bid.

Of course, not every dye is used to fill a buy order, many will undercut the lowest seller (and will be undercut immediately).

They could be put into the mf, which will eat alot of supply, they will be bought by consumers or bought up by speculators.

The question is, how high will be the demand of players to fill gaps in their dye collection, so how much will be used up there?

Personally, i will ID all my UIDs and sell to the highest offer immediately.
I put in very low buy offers for dyes that i dont have unlocked yet.

Well supply will decrease(uni no longer drop)and demand will decrease (account bound dyes). Best to sell it now before the patch day. Patch day will have a spike in uni dye from all of the extra color people have on their alts.