Guild Wars 2

When going through the materials the mystic clovers can potentially yield, I can’t shake the feeling the recipe is inherently profitable as long as the clovers themselves are a wished result. Virtually all alternative outcomes are a net profit.

The T6 are needed for Gifts of Might and Magic. Other materials are needed for other parts of the legendary. If my hunch is right, that’d mean gambling clovers makes the legendary cheaper, after all, a penny saved is a penny earned.

My temporary conclusion is that Mystic Clovers are a pita in so far that they are RNG based. Objectively though, as a gamble, every potential outcome is a win like a slots machine that gives back at least your initial quarter.

Opinions? Facts? Math?

Assuming the wiki is right, about 1/3 of the non-clover results will be a loss in money. Those are Cured Hardened Leather Squares, Ancient Bones, Powerful Venom Sacs, Crystals (I value these at ~10s), Obsidian Shards, Piles of Putrid Essence, Mystic Coins, and Hidden Treasures.

Of the lodestones, Glacial and Crystal Lodestones are just above the break-even point, so unless you need them, you’d lose money selling them on the TP. Molten Lodestones are also close to the cut-off, but should be on the safe side. Onyx, Corrupted, and Charged are all good profits.

The only T6 Fine Material guarranteed to be a profit is the Vial of Powerful Blood; Vicious Claw requires a maximum roll; Ancient Scales, Elaborate Totems, Piles of Dust, and Vicious Fangs only require that you not roll minimum.

For the T6 Basic Materials, whose returns range from 1-21, only Orichalcum Ingots have a better than 50% chance of positive return, requiring 8 or higher. Bolt of Gossamer is near the 50% mark, requiring 12 or higher, and Ancient Wood Planks require a minimum roll of 16 to be profitable (which is being generous both in sale price and in ignoring taxes).

And lastly, you can get back 2 Globs of Ectoplasm, which would be a modest profit.

What about charged lodestones? They must be a profit to sell?

Noobkaka.5067:

What about charged lodestones? They must be a profit to sell?

Editing my post for clarity, but yes. Any lodestone I didn’t originally mention by name was a large profit.

lures makes good points. His post is essentially the profitability of the clover recipe. That said, there isn’t an equal chance for all of those things to happen… Lodestones have a very low ~5% chance of popping out of the recipe, while each T6 fine material seems to have around a 2/30 chance of appearing. I still think it requires some good luck to actually profit from this, but if we’re assuming you need the clovers anyway, then it’s actually a pretty fair recipe, even if RNG for clovers sucks.

Rising Dusk.2408:

lures makes good points. His post is essentially the profitability of the clover recipe. That said, there isn’t an equal chance for all of those things to happen… Lodestones have a very low ~5% chance of popping out of the recipe, while each T6 fine material seems to have around a 2/30 chance of appearing. I still think it requires some good luck to actually profit from this, but if we’re assuming you need the clovers anyway, then it’s actually a pretty fair recipe, even if RNG for clovers sucks.

Yeah, I didn’t want to touch on the odds simply because I have nowhere near the data for that, short of the consensus on clovers themselves being a 33% chance. As such, I basically tried to give the odds of any given item result making a profit if you know which item it is, under the assumption that it’s a “two-roll” system; e.g., one roll to determine that it’s Orichalcum Ingots, a second roll to determine how many.

Though, again, that’s just an assumption I had to make, and I have no idea how accurate it is.