BLK-Farm-nerf: How does it effect the economy
- We don’t know precisely how BLKey acquisition will be affected. If it’s like the Chinese version, then it will probably double the time and discourage a lot of people. But they could decide to update the Chinese version and avoid gating people by character level.
- Even if key farming is reduced, we don’t know how it will affect how many chests get opened in September. People could start buying keys again in quantity — seems doubtful, but folks used to and it made less sense then. ANet could increase the drop rate for keys elsewhere or make them available for, e.g. laurels.
That said, it’s almost impossible to lose money by investing in the current skin; prices always go up. The only question is: will they rise in price fast enough to meet your goals of wealth? And that’s always been a dice roll. Some of the most attractive skins were so over-acquired that prices rose slowly (tormented shield). Sometimes unpopular skins went up a lot because no one invested in them early and the demand quickly outstripped the supply.
tl;dr sure, throw some money at a few skins, but don’t risk the entire piggy bank on it.
John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”
The various contracts may go up in price too.
Well, the already near-worthless and heavily over-supplied Black Lion Chest will become even more worthless and more over-supplied. I suspect it will drop back down to near 3-4 copper again.
I wish they’d at least artificially increase their value. Reduce their drop rate, have anet “buy” tons of them off the TP, something.
Blackgate
i dont think old skins will rise in price from this
but new skin release will not have alot supply anymore so people buying keys with money can make more gold
If I understood it correctly, you need to hit level 10 before you can play the PS
That would mean you need 2h+ to get to the ‘Commander’-Quest
btw: also unidentified dyes could be affected, since blcs are (besides laurels) the only way to get them
If key farming is destroyed (no PS until level 10 and no key until level 20 are what China has right now), then the only real way to get keys is from the gemstore.
- 25 keys sells for 2100 gems.
- If the ticket scrap rate is 1 every 5 keys, then it’s 4200 gems for each ticket.
- 100 gems sells for 11.37 gold… so
- 4200 gems is equivalent to 477.54 gold.
- So a very rough estimate is that each skin should be worth 477.54 gold.
- Currently, skins sell for ~100g.
This is a rough estimate because it ignores the other stuff you can get from the chests.
(I believe Astral Projection has a similar (or maybe the same?) computation, but I can’t find that post.)
Edit (typo): “4200 gems for each ticket” not key.
(edited by Lord Kuru.3685)
- 25 keys sells for 2100 gems.
- If the ticket scrap rate is 1 every 5 keys, then it’s 4200 gems for each key.
That should be “4200 gems for each ticket”. It confused me at first.
(edited by Cormac.3871)
Current and past skins are unlikely to rise.
Look at phoenix skins. They now cost 5 tickets, yet they are still only 60-80g on the TP.
There are simply too many BL skins out there now, people have skins they want and there are too many to collect them all.
Depends on popularity, chaos skins are a lot more popular than phoenix so will sell for a lot more once they go up to 5 tickets. I agree however that it will be the next set that sells for significantly more as there will be a lot less supply generated from the very beginning.
You will only really see the effects about three BL weapon sets from the current one. The excess keys from key farms need to be dumped completely before we can start with a clean slate.
Would have thought most keys would have been used up when the chests had double ticket chance. Of course that might just mean there are lots of tickets waiting to be used, I know I have my fair share!