Guild Wars 2

anyone know why 2 million black lion chests have been purchased since sunday?
the price has gone from 7c to 30c
I’m not aware of any key sales…

gosh 30c… that’s the highest I’ve seen bl chests reach…. people been farming alot recently? for the chaos skins?

My guess is a seriously rich flipper….. :/

I saw that.

There was a post about the Halloween skins possibly making a come back. Data mining showed they were updated. These skins were a rare drop from the BLCs. Maybe it’s related to that.

I think it ‘s probably related to a rich flipper who buys them all at 3c and sells them all back at 30c. It’s simple math really, yes?

only if people buy at 30c. how is he going to offload 2 million chests at 30c if they didn’t even sell at 7c?

Are people doing that much key farming? I know some were really pushing it to get the extra ticket scraps, but 2mil sounds like a lot.

maybe someone had a chest listed at 30c they REALLY wanted to sell, so they bought all the supply that was less than that.
on that topic, how would the TP respond to you buying your own listing? would you have to pay final sale fee or would it just count as removing your item from the TP?

Mystic.5934:

only if people buy at 30c. how is he going to offload 2 million chests at 30c if they didn’t even sell at 7c?

The guy who has all the stuff makes the prices to some degree. He now has a monopoly, so anyone who wants a chest and doesn’t yet have one will pay 30c. Anyone who has stacks of chests in their inventory won’t be affected.

The person with all the chests takes a gamble hoping that people will buy at the new price. Maybe they win, maybe they lose. Time will tell. BTW I used to buy them at 6c, and I’m sure I’m not the only one. I would sell the ones I got and then just buy whenever I decided to buy keys or go on some key runs.

ETA: there’s also the chance that those that saved theirs will now see a higher price and start listing theirs, undercutting the monopoly. So ya, big chance to take on buying them all up, as there are literally tons of these out there.

I guess someone is expecting something special is being added to them soon. Of course it actually doesn’t matter when you get the chest.

Maybe he’s making a fort.

Hmm… -looks at his measly stockpile of 40 chests-

Nah. If the Halloween weapons are indeed coming back, I’ll just sell them when the patch hits. Prices might go even higher if they are, and if prices go down, eh, I’ll just hang onto my chests for the odd time when I get a Black Lion Key.

Is it even possible for one person to buy 2 million of something (at 250 per click max, no?) without a macro?

Why do people believe it’s always a single person that cause these massive changes in supply or demand?

I don’t know. I guess it’s just really strange for an item that has been in the same place for 2 years to jump so far seemingly overnight. (Was it overnight? How long did it take?)

Mystic.5934:

only if people buy at 30c. how is he going to offload 2 million chests at 30c if they didn’t even sell at 7c?

he dont need to offload 2million

to make it simple: when buyd all on 3c than he jsut need to sell 200.000 on 30c to get his gold back – the other 1.800.000 is free profit^^

Via Spidy Graph…upward trend started on the 19th, peaked on 24th and looks to be on it’s way back down (abet slowly).

This is another issue where nobody can CONTROL or MONOPOLIZE this market as it’s impossible to control the supply. I’d bet 80% of regular players have over a hundred sitting it their bank (maybe soon being added to the TP Supply).

….. the other 1.800.000 is free profit^^

or 1.8 million chances at a big payoff if they can secure that many BL keys somehow (and whatever they may be speculating on pans out).

Lilith Ajit.6173:

I don’t know. I guess it’s just really strange for an item that has been in the same place for 2 years to jump so far seemingly overnight. (Was it overnight? How long did it take?)

79 hours, 1.795 million. There was three notable sell offs.

First moved the price fro 8c to 10c in 4 hours with a drop in supply of 540,000.

Two days and 497,000 drop in supply the price had only moved fro 10c to 12c.

Then in two hours 334,000 was removed and the price went from 12c to 20c.

23 hours later with only 49,000 supply drop, with the price was steady there was another two hour period that withdrew another 375,000 from the market. Prices went from 20c to 26c.

So in 8 hours about 1.2 million was removed, 709 thousand in 4 hours. A bit under 5,000 stacks in total. 10 stacks a minute on average, 12-13 stacks a minute at peak. More than doable since if they were buying at low sell it’s just entering 250 and clicking buy each time.

So I guess a single entity could do it. Boring 4 or 8 hours. The first buy off would have cost 432 to 540g. 2nd buy off cost 400 to 668g. Last buy off would cost 750 to 975g.

So roughly 1,900g. But they would have to dump nearly 750,000 at 26c, 630,000 at 30c to just break even.

But the thing is since the last obvious major drop buy off, supply only dropped some 97,000. Except for one 40K of sell orders over an hour there hasn’t been a major bumps in supply in 5+ days. I guess you could spread out some sell orders and “automate” sell orders to be made as previous ones are fulfilled one stack at a time at the inflated price but I can’t see a single player thinking they will profit off of it. Price may have jumped to 30c but it’s back down to 26c. It’s tough to liquidate inventory AND keep the price high enough to recover your costs. And I’m not even taking the 15% into account.

Nobody is making a killing on this. They didn’t buy 1.75 million at 8c and sold it at 30c.

Lord Kuru.3685:

Is it even possible for one person to buy 2 million of something (at 250 per click max, no?) without a macro?

yes. let’s say 1 click a second, 250 per click, that’s 8000 seconds = 133 minutes = 2.22 hours. but there’s that latency bug/feature, the one where you click buy really fast and it places 4 orders at once. with that, you can do like 4 stacks per second = 33 minutes.
When I’m placing buy orders for tens of thousands of crafting materials when I do my crafting, I just put a movie on. simple/action movies are the best so you don’t have to pay a lot of attention.

never mind, I’m an idiot.

Behellagh.1468:

never mind, I’m an idiot.

I hate when I spend like 20 min writing something really elegant and referenced, then realize it doesn’t need to be said or I misunderstood what OP meant. I’m not sure why/what you’re redacting, though?

Behellagh.1468:

never mind, I’m an idiot.

+1

Mystic.5934:

Behellagh.1468:

never mind, I’m an idiot.

I hate when I spend like 20 min writing something really elegant and referenced, then realize it doesn’t need to be said or I misunderstood what OP meant. I’m not sure why/what you’re redacting, though?

Well I was talking out of my depth. While I’ve seen a delay when attempting to sell to quickly, I’ve never seen it while buying. Except I never buy to many things at one time, quickly while you state you have. Your experience exceeds mine so I’m in no position to disagree with your delay assertion on buy.

oh, you wrote something then edited it to “never mind, I’m an idiot.”? I didn’t see that and thought you were talking about your post above that started with “79 hours, 1.795 million. There was three notable sell offs….” :P
the delay when buying is very brief and only on buy orders. you enter the amount you want, price, then click ‘Buy’ as many times as you can as quickly as you can. wood pecker-style. It might be latency that causes it? it’s also possible to keybind left-click to your mouse wheel and get a few more than 4 clicks in, though the legality of this is questionable.

Yes, I did the edit so quickly that it didn’t register as an edit.

I do stand by that sell off post. My intention there was to show that the overall sell off didn’t occur in an hour or two but over 3+ days, even though it does appear that a substantial amount of the sell off did occur over a span of a few hours but one or two days apart.

Nobody bought 2 million at 7c “instantly” and is now selling it at 30c.

Romek.4201:

Mystic.5934:

only if people buy at 30c. how is he going to offload 2 million chests at 30c if they didn’t even sell at 7c?

he dont need to offload 2million

to make it simple: when buyd all on 3c than he jsut need to sell 200.000 on 30c to get his gold back – the other 1.800.000 is free profit^^

Yup, you get it.

Someone appears to have bumped this again about 10 hours ago…..

for the record I am that investor and I have made a fortune you wouldn’t believe!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRB8Jor8tPs

a small sidenote blc’s I bought them all for 6 copper or less (some cases much less)

A single person couldn’t even store that many chests. Unless they were pulling some shenanigans with keeping everything stored in the pickup tab there’s just no way one person did it. A full 12 tab bank completely filled with chests only gets you to 90,000. You’d need a fully maxed bank along with ~48 character slots, each with 8 bag slots and 20 slot bags to store that many chests.

I can imagine someone pulling some TP pickup storage shenanigans but this is some serious dedication if it’s one guy manipulating it.

Am I nuts or is this likely to crash like the Hindenburg when Key Running gets nerfed soon. It would seem that hording chests right now would not be too bright (but I may be missing something). Now selling them off (IF you bought them cheap) between now and the Feature Pack just might be brilliant….

I know from my few Key Runs over the past few days, there is a MAD rush on doing them right now…. I saw over a dozen players coming out of the starting instance into Queensdale at about 5:30 AM this morning…..