Claim rate
It’s really, really low. If you want to get some skins with gems, it’s more efficient to get $10 of gems, convert to gold, and buy the skin off the TP.
10 buX so much
Well, if you really wanted to get a claim ticket with gems, you’re looking at around… $40 to get 10 Scraps to convert into one ticket. The drop rate on tickets is so abysmally low that if you get one, just count yourself lucky and move along.
According to the wiki: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate and this guy: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/
Ticket scrap is between 30%-40%, full ticket is ~2%.
What skin do you want?
Skjold Pjod
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.
According to the wiki: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate and this guy: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/
Ticket scrap is between 30%-40%, full ticket is ~2%.
Except that was during the time they doubled the odds on scraps and tickets. 20% chance for scraps (1/10th of a ticket), 1% for a whole ticket. So 3 tickets out of every 100 chests ON AVERAGE but not guaranteed. It’s really not very good odds and not worth it if all you are planning to do is sell a skin(s) you get for tickets unless you farmed those keys. It’s cheaper to buy the skins gold wise rather than converting the gold to gems for keys or buying gems for cash and converting them to gold rather than buying keys.
We are heroes. This is what we do!
RIP City of Heroes
RIP City of Heroes
According to the wiki: http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate and this guy: http://www.reddit.com/r/Guildwars2/comments/2dbbbe/1000_black_lion_keys/
Ticket scrap is between 30%-40%, full ticket is ~2%.
Except that was during the time they doubled the odds on scraps and tickets. 20% chance for scraps (1/10th of a ticket), 1% for a whole ticket. So 3 tickets out of every 100 chests ON AVERAGE but not guaranteed. It’s really not very good odds and not worth it if all you are planning to do is sell a skin(s) you get for tickets unless you farmed those keys. It’s cheaper to buy the skins gold wise rather than converting the gold to gems for keys or buying gems for cash and converting them to gold rather than buying keys.
Oh man. That makes it even worse.
Yeah, sorry, I didn’t include sources because it didn’t sound like OP wanted the reasoning, just the facts.
Always buy the skin directly from the TP; it will always be cheaper than farming the tickets (either by doing key farms or by buying the keys directly with gems).
I’ve collected data on a couple thousand chests (both during and outside the double-chance period) and the rate seems to be about one skin for every 25-33 chests (reducing to perhaps 1 per 16 with double-chances).
25 keys costs 2,100 gems
- If you have that many already, convert to 212g: that can get you 3-6 of the latest skin and usually 1-2 of any older ones.
- Obviously, if you can afford to convert gold to gems, you’ll have even more gold to start with and can just buy the skins directly now.
- A super efficient key farmer could manage 25 keys in 6.5 hrs, but if you’re that efficient, you could also farm various events, world bosses, or dungeons for the 50g for a chaos skin. (If you’re less efficient, farming elsewhere becomes a much better choice.)
However, to complicate matters, there’s no guarantee you’ll see one ticket per 25 keys. In fact, on average, you’ll see less than that. Some people will be lucky and get a ticket more easily, but most of us will need a few more (or a lot more) chests before we get our full ticket.
tl;dr If you really want the skin, don’t spend any time or effort to acquire keys; save up and buy them directly.
The keys are like a lotto ticket: the value is the entertainment of rolling the dice; in the long run, you lose most of your “investment.”
John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”