Cost of precursor on TP

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Posted by: Dutchdevil.6902

Dutchdevil.6902

Hi Anet,

Again I put a topic down on this forum about the rediculous costs of precorsors these days and also about all other cost regarding legandaries that have increased since the patch.

Don’t we all agree that the costs of precursors are too high and the increase of 600g in 2/3 months is not possible to keep up with for the regular gamer.
And I DO find that also regular gamers should have a feeling of getting somewhere while they grind! I played over 2000 hours and last few months i was gathering money to buy the dawn for 600g, to see now its increased to 1200g!!

Sorry, but this is outrageous. Next to buying these things and be lucky (where I feel that still the same accounts have the luck of finding these….) The precursors shoudl be craftable..

and next to this, there should be a change in the marketing system. Yes I know its inflation, can’t change it, its anonymous, players affect this market etc… But there should be done something about it. newcomers will never get a precursor and I have grinded these lat months for nothing and feel I didn’t get somewhere.. And I thought that this was just important, be patient and get stuff and see you increase in stuff you have? Well the last few months I barely could keep up with the inflation..

and yes, I will probably hear, you don’t have to be hardcore gamer to get enough money, bu still… I wnat to play this game in relax mode and still need to feel my improvement over the game. Well this was 0 these last few months!

So Anet, are we going to do something about it? As a fan who played GW1 so long and now GW2 since day one, buying gems etc, I hope I will be heard.
I don’t post or complain much, but this is to much!

Regards

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Posted by: Vol.7601

Vol.7601

1.) Precursors are not too high. They are based on market forces.
2.) The increase of 600g is directly as a result of the wardrobe change. The price is not because of inflation but because of a sustained spike in demand
3.) Newcomers shouldn’t be concerned about getting a precursor or a legendary to begin with, at least not right away. Sure, make it your goal, but it’s a long-term one.
4.) You really should have posted in the dozen or so threads on the same topic.

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

If prices were too high, no one would be buying them.

As people are buying them, you are provably wrong when you say that prices are too high.

What you meant to say was “The specific Precursor that I want is in high demand, to the point where I am unable to afford it. I would like the entire economy to be devastated so that I can have my Precursor now instead of putting in a buy order and waiting for the wardrobe spike to end”.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

I have a feeling that the OP is not a TP enthusiast nor a “hardcore” player. Thus they would be in the lower/majority segment of the population that doesn’t have the same elevated earning potential. When prices of certain items are dictated by those with elevated gold, those w/o are s-o-l. It’s probably the reason there are so many threads about it…..ya think?

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

I have a feeling that the OP is not a TP enthusiast nor a “hardcore” player. Thus they would be in the lower/majority segment of the population that doesn’t have the same elevated earning potential. When prices of certain items are dictated by those with elevated gold, those w/o are s-o-l. It’s probably the reason there are so many threads about it…..ya think?

Everyone in the game has the same chance to get a precursor if they engage in the things that create precursors.

No one is s-o-l. They just believe they are because they are only looking at the acquisition method that is most visible (which, coincidentally, is the one with the most competition as a result of it being the most visible).

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

I have a feeling that the OP is not a TP enthusiast nor a “hardcore” player. Thus they would be in the lower/majority segment of the population that doesn’t have the same elevated earning potential. When prices of certain items are dictated by those with elevated gold, those w/o are s-o-l. It’s probably the reason there are so many threads about it…..ya think?

Everyone in the game has the same chance to get a precursor if they engage in the things that create precursors.

No one is s-o-l. They just believe they are because they are only looking at the acquisition method that is most visible (which, coincidentally, is the one with the most competition as a result of it being the most visible).

I feel like Jon Stewart talking to Fox News here.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Dutchdevil.6902

Dutchdevil.6902

people that easily say its not too expensive or just say its wardrobe patch and its all okay, probably have already a few legendaries. And made them when you could grind cof the whole day and got those pre’s and legends relativly cheap… compared to now..
I say make pre’s craftable!

Weird that you can craft the better one, legendaries,, but not the lesser once, precursors

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

I feel like Jon Stewart talking to Fox News here.

Jon Stewart is a propagandist. He uses humor to sway people to abandon reason and join in his fallacious political ideology. Not saying Fox News is any different (other than using fear instead of humor), but I find it somewhat fitting that you used him in your analogy…

The point is, all of the precursors that are on the TP came from somewhere, and EVERY SINGLE PLAYER has the exact same chance to be that somewhere.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

I feel like Jon Stewart talking to Fox News here.

Jon Stewart is a propagandist. He uses humor to sway people to abandon reason and join in his fallacious political ideology. Not saying Fox News is any different (other than using fear instead of humor), but I find it somewhat fitting that you used him in your analogy…

The point is, all of the precursors that are on the TP came from somewhere, and EVERY SINGLE PLAYER has the exact same chance to be that somewhere.

To abandon reason? His show mostly focuses on common sense observations to point out the hilarity in “fallacious political ideologies” as you call them.

Single players obtaining 300+ pre’s from forge or 5+ from drops fly in the face of everyone having the same chances. Statistical outliers if you’d rather.

Serenity now~Insanity later

(edited by Essence Snow.3194)

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

Single players obtaining 300+ pre’s from forge or 5+ from drops fly in the face of everyone having the same chances. Statistical outliers if you’d rather.

Everyone has the same chance to create a precursor when they throw 4 items in the forge. They also have the same base chance (adjusted upwards via Magic Find) to create a precursor when they kill ANY mob in the game. They finally have the same chance to create a precursor when they open a boss or jumping puzzle chest.

The chance is the same for everyone. Some players CHOOSE to not maximize their number of attempts while others do choose to maximize their attempts.

Any time you have a fixed CHANCE, the only way to improve your odds is to increase your number of attempts.

Ergo, players who throw 400 weapons into the Mystic Forge will be more likely to get a precursor than the players who throw 4 weapons into the MF. Both players have the same chance on each forge, but one player is improving his odds by playing more.

Same with killing enemies, the guy who spends his time killing LOTS of enemies will have better odds of getting a precursor than the guy who sticks to the champ train, killing one enemy at a time.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Single players obtaining 300+ pre’s from forge or 5+ from drops fly in the face of everyone having the same chances. Statistical outliers if you’d rather.

Everyone has the same chance to create a precursor when they throw 4 items in the forge. They also have the same base chance (adjusted upwards via Magic Find) to create a precursor when they kill ANY mob in the game. They finally have the same chance to create a precursor when they open a boss or jumping puzzle chest.

The chance is the same for everyone. Some players CHOOSE to not maximize their number of attempts while others do choose to maximize their attempts.

Any time you have a fixed CHANCE, the only way to improve your odds is to increase your number of attempts.

Ergo, players who throw 400 weapons into the Mystic Forge will be more likely to get a precursor than the players who throw 4 weapons into the MF. Both players have the same chance on each forge, but one player is improving his odds by playing more.

Same with killing enemies, the guy who spends his time killing LOTS of enemies will have better odds of getting a precursor than the guy who sticks to the champ train, killing one enemy at a time.

Prove that all accounts have the same odds. (does this seem familiar?)

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Andred.1087

Andred.1087

Single players obtaining 300+ pre’s from forge or 5+ from drops fly in the face of everyone having the same chances. Statistical outliers if you’d rather.

Everyone has the same chance to create a precursor when they throw 4 items in the forge. They also have the same base chance (adjusted upwards via Magic Find) to create a precursor when they kill ANY mob in the game. They finally have the same chance to create a precursor when they open a boss or jumping puzzle chest.

The chance is the same for everyone. Some players CHOOSE to not maximize their number of attempts while others do choose to maximize their attempts.

Any time you have a fixed CHANCE, the only way to improve your odds is to increase your number of attempts.

Ergo, players who throw 400 weapons into the Mystic Forge will be more likely to get a precursor than the players who throw 4 weapons into the MF. Both players have the same chance on each forge, but one player is improving his odds by playing more.

Same with killing enemies, the guy who spends his time killing LOTS of enemies will have better odds of getting a precursor than the guy who sticks to the champ train, killing one enemy at a time.

Prove that all accounts have the same odds. (does this seem familiar?)

Yes, it reminds me of what people do when they lose arguments, i.e. demand nonsense and “evidence” that doesn’t even need proving in order to put the ball back into the other court for another opportunity to nitpick something stupid again. And you compared him to Fox News?

“You’ll PAY to know what you really think.” ~ J. R. “Bob” Dobbs

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Ahh so then you know about the TP crew’s methods. If you were familiar with them then you’d know it’s what they have done time and time again. You’re joining late to a party and commenting on something that’s been well in the works for a while.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Tree.3916

Tree.3916

Prove that all accounts have the same odds. (does this seem familiar?)

You must have one of those “bad RNG” accounts anet creates when people put in their key during account creation. So duplicitous!

DnT Apply today if you think you can hang with the best of the best
http://www.twitch.tv/tree_dnt || https://twitter.com/Tree_DnT
The meta is changing at an alarming rate!

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

To the OP’s points:

  • Precursor prices are higher than ever, but that doesn’t mean they are “too high.”
  • If you really want to acquire one, there are a number of ways to do so without “playing” the TP.

Of course it’s frustrating when your goal was to save up 600g but the weapon’s cost has skyrocketed to 1,200. On the other hand, that 100% increase is far less than what we’ve seen for other coveted weapons.

There are several reasons for the recent dramatic increase in prices:

  • The wardrobe (and the ability to wield the legendary skin on every character) spiked demand.
  • Inflation plays a role, too. With the game nearing its second anniversary, players have acquired more and more wealth (my friend logs on once every two weeks now and each time she comes back, she throws some of her hoarded inventory on the TP and returns to find 80-120g waiting for her). We’ve figured out ever more efficient farming techniques.
  • There’s been a decrease in supply: people who were mass-producing precursors in the Mystic Forge have slowed or stopped their assembly lines (the profits have sharply decreased due to changes in which exotics Zommy offers as consolation prizes).

There’s no easy way for ANet to resolve this:

  • If they increase the drop rate a tiny amount, the cost of building a legendary might actually increase: more people will start hoarding T6 mats and lodestones, driving prices of those items up (and there’s precedent that suggests that even precursor prices would rise, too).
  • If they increase the drop rate by too much, then legendaries become devalued for the current owners.

The problem is as much sociological or psychological as economic: as humans, we covet things that are cool-looking and rare…until everyone has them and then we want the next new thing that no one else has. (Sure, a lot of us will want the item for its own sake, but it’s the others that will dominate the demand that affects market prices.)

I think those of us without legendaries are, unfortunately, going to have to tough it out until ANet announces Legendary Set II or Legendary Armor and splinters the demand.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

@OP

While you were saving 600g everybody else was also increasing their net worth but the rate of precursors trickling into the game remained roughly the same. This means the richest of those who want one will get them. If we had an auction house instead of a TP nothing would change other than the price may be even higher than it is even today.

Now because of the low volume of new supply appearing on the market daily, the fact most players who are selling will either match the low sell or undercut it slightly, it limits the ability of such of item to find it’s true equilibrium, buyers equal supply rate, price. That’s partially the reason we are seeing these step ups in price. It’s a price correction that shows the increasing wealth in the game. I mean that back when it was 600g, only X% of players could afford one. Now at 1200g, it’s still the same percentage of players that can afford one.

Now I don’t know what you are doing or how much gold you spend on other things but I’m only playing 60-90 hrs a month and make roughly 250-275g in that time. I’m a piker at this gold earning. I do a couple of champs, 2 minor bosses and every event and harvest every mat node I stumble upon. I don’t ride trains, farm Orr, speed run dungeon paths or play the TP. I understand the TP. I know when it’s better to sell an item than salvage it. I understand the MF and how much gold I can make with SPs. I know I can sell my Laurels for around 1g each buying T6 bags. And I enjoy the content I’m doing, it doesn’t feel grindy to me. Now if I can make that much a month with a level 80 character while still having fun doing it, I can’t see how someone playing 10x more only saved 600g and never bothered to see what the price was doing during that time.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

To go over these in more detail:

  • The wardrobe (and the ability to wield the legendary skin on every character) spiked demand.

It certainly did. The price of Dawn had been fairly stable at ~600g for around 7 months prior to the wardrobe change (from the end of the crown pavilion farm spike up until the wardrobe). The announcement of the wardrobe almost immediately drove that up to 750g, where it stayed before the supply cracked and it shot up to 900g.

It sat at around 900g from late May and throughout June. We saw similar patterns in the increase of other precursors as well. Without other major changes in there, I think it’s safe to attribute the ~50% increase in price purely to the demand for precursors from the wardrobe.

  • Inflation plays a role, too. With the game nearing its second anniversary, players have acquired more and more wealth (my friend logs on once every two weeks now and each time she comes back, she throws some of her hoarded inventory on the TP and returns to find 80-120g waiting for her). We’ve figured out ever more efficient farming techniques.

It plays a role but a very minimal one. Take a look at prices other than the ones affected – they’ve barely budged. Ecto has been stable for a long time, T2-T4 mats aren’t moving much. The inflation / deflation cycles in this game are real but they’re really, really minor compared to the local supply / demand surges that catch attention.

  • There’s been a decrease in supply: people who were mass-producing precursors in the Mystic Forge have slowed or stopped their assembly lines (the profits have sharply decreased due to changes in which exotics Zommy offers as consolation prizes).

There has been a supply shock, but it’s not because of changes to the mystic forge – the changes to the consolation exotics were irrelevant for profitability (75-79 exotics are a little lower, 80s are a little higher, average is the same. Whatever.) and the recovery of exotics in general from the glut left by ascended weaponsmithing has been a much, much bigger deal.

Profit margins today on precursor forges are not all that much different than the were in March, before the wardrobe change (actually, at the moment, they’re a bit higher).

There’s been a supply shock because T5 fine materials are in short supply. Forging precursors devours an enormous amount of T5 fine materials, and the market just can’t supply enough of them to keep up with demand. We’ve seen a steady ratchet of prices, both in precursors and T5 fine materials, the past couple months.

This trend began at the beginning of July, with the release of the new living story, and prices have been slowly and consistently rising since then.

While I can’t measure it directly there’s plenty of evidence pointing to a supply shock reducing the number of precursors on the market and steadily increasing prices to go with it. It’s consistent with supply shocks to other materials (T5 fine in particular, but see what’s going on with Giant’s Eyes as well that follows a very similar trend). The new living story has changed what people are producing, and I’d attribute the rise from 900g to the 1200g+ we see today to this change.

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

Prove that all accounts have the same odds. (does this seem familiar?)

I didn’t say that every account has the same odds. In fact, I specifically stated that some accounts have better odds because they are engaging in more attempts.

Unless stated otherwise, there is no reason to assume that any account has a different base chance per attempt. The Mystic Forging data that is available on these forums and on other websites all corroborates the chance rate. Testing mob and chest drop rates is practically impossible for players because we are missing too many variables to back into the equation, however there isn’t any evidence that there IS a difference either.

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Posted by: anabasis.7346

anabasis.7346

Yup. I’ve always said in this forum that the wardrobe has played a major role in the price of precursors. Since the announcement of the wardrobe in March 25, 2014, most of them have gone up in price more than in the 15 months prior to that announcement.

Also, there seems to be a shortage in the supply of T5 fine mats necessary to mystic forge precursors just like Ensign says. Taking a look at the charts here The two lines that represent the quantity supplied and the quantity demanded, following their upward and downward trends, met (both quantities were the same) several times since the game was released. However, the last time that both met was in mid-january 2014 for most T5 fine mats. After that, the supply hasn’t been able to catch up with the demand for 7 months and counting and the gap between both is widening.

Sorry for the lack of better words but english is not my first languaje and I lack words related to the field of economics.

Potent blood below. All t5 fine mats except incandescent dust show pretty much the same wide gap.

Attachments:

(edited by anabasis.7346)

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Prove that all accounts have the same odds. (does this seem familiar?)

I didn’t say that every account has the same odds. In fact, I specifically stated that some accounts have better odds because they are engaging in more attempts.

Unless stated otherwise, there is no reason to assume that any account has a different base chance per attempt. The Mystic Forging data that is available on these forums and on other websites all corroborates the chance rate. Testing mob and chest drop rates is practically impossible for players because we are missing too many variables to back into the equation, however there isn’t any evidence that there IS a difference either.

The thing with odds is that they settle down over time. The outliers cease to be outliers. It is this premise which house odds are based on. Vegas will always will in the long run b/c the odds settle out to their favor. When they don’t odds are something is wrong.

For example when something has a 1/100 chance yet happens 50 times in a row the odds of something being wrong become much much higher than the odds of it being business as usual.

This game has outliers. We all know them, played with them, either felt pity or angst for them. Thing is some of these outliers have been so since the launch of the game……ie they have remained outliers over time. This is evidence of something not working as intended. The odds of this happening do to things not working right are much greater than if they are working right.

Unfortunately we only have one type of evidence…observational, but it’s better than nothing.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

Getting a precursor on your first throw into the Mystic Forge is not an outlier. It is, in fact, the most common throw on which to get your first precursor.

There are tons of cases of this happening to people. It’s how a properly functioning IID system should work.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

No one said 1 result was. It’s the repeating that makes the outlier.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

When something with ‘1 in 100’ odds happens 50 times in a row, you’re not looking at something with 1 in 100 odds. You’ve mis-specified the problem, and the question is why you thought it’s something with 1 in 100 odds in the first place.

(edited by Ensign.2189)

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

What? Can you please reiterate that?

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

If you believe that something has an IID 1 in 100 probability of occurring and you observe it to occur 50 times in a row, your beliefs are wrong.

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

That’s what I said. If that happens something is more likely wrong than right.

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Lady Deedra.3126

Lady Deedra.3126

I am pretty happy with the current system.

Skjold Pjod
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

If that happens something is very likely to be wrong. We have no evidence of that ever happening however so I don’t quite understand where we are going with this?

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Posted by: Dutchdevil.6902

Dutchdevil.6902

600g increase in money (at my slow chill pace) only to keep up with whatever the reason is for precursors to rise with 600g doesn’t feel like improvement and getting somewhere with my time put in the game! That is the baseline!
And that is what Anet should consider. I feel like a gamer that I am standing still in those months. As the coolness for me is saving and gaining stuff in those months. But that is zero as I focussed on the precursors these last months.
So whatever the reason is, I feel like I was only keeping up and standing still the same time. That makes it for me a bad game ATM.
And apparently Anet don’t care and you are missing the point. I don’t feel like getting there! but who cares, right

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

But ANet put it the setting of the price in the players hands. All Anet does control the drop rate, which they’ve said they doubled, and give players additional reasons to buy one, which is the wardrobe. Obviously doubling the drop rate didn’t handle the increase in demand.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Aidan Savage.2078

Aidan Savage.2078

If you believe that something has an IID 1 in 100 probability of occurring and you observe it to occur 50 times in a row, your beliefs are wrong.

Your beliefs are only wrong if you’re satisfied with accepting the results from such a tiny sample size. If you believe something has a 1:100 rate, and it happens 50 times successively, you’re going to need to attempt it another 4950 times to verify or downgrade the risk that it was a mere fluke you had that much success. Afterall, it IS possible for someone to drop 50 precursors in a row off the forge. An infinitesimal chance, but it’s still there. So does that mean if someone does come across that result, does that mean precursors dont really have a 1:89237645872364582 drop rate?

Sample size is everything for results.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Someone did share their MF stats of forging exotics for precursors back when exotics were 1g a piece. Based on 23 precursor forgings he has a mean of 111 attempts each with a median of 55 attempts. Longest drought was over 500 attempts.

http://smrrd.de/static/gw2/precursor.html

But like all types of gambling you only make money if you get out while you are ahead.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

If you believe something has a 1:100 rate, and it happens 50 times successively, you’re going to need to attempt it another 4950 times to verify or downgrade the risk that it was a mere fluke you had that much success.

…no, no you don’t need to attempt it another 4950 times to reject the hypothesis that it’s an iid 1:100 rate. I’d be totally ok with rejecting it at a sample size of, like, 4. Sample size in, indeed, everything, and sometimes a remarkably small sample is sufficient to answer a question.

EDIT – it’s all about sample sizes and credible intervals. The only values of a probability parameter that you can rule out with 100% certainty are 0 and 1. You potentially only need a sample size of 1 to do so: if you’ve observed it happen once, it’s not 0, and if you’ve observed it fail to occur, it’s not 1.

Every other value the parameter could be is possible, regardless of the amount of data collected; the odds could be astronomically against it, but it is still possible. When talking about the value of unknown parameters we can only make statements of probability.

(edited by Ensign.2189)

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Posted by: anabasis.7346

anabasis.7346

If you believe that something has an IID 1 in 100 probability of occurring and you observe it to occur 50 times in a row, your beliefs are wrong.

Your beliefs are only wrong if you’re satisfied with accepting the results from such a tiny sample size. If you believe something has a 1:100 rate, and it happens 50 times successively, you’re going to need to attempt it another 4950 times to verify or downgrade the risk that it was a mere fluke you had that much success. Afterall, it IS possible for someone to drop 50 precursors in a row off the forge. An infinitesimal chance, but it’s still there. So does that mean if someone does come across that result, does that mean precursors dont really have a 1:89237645872364582 drop rate?

Sample size is everything for results.

Actually the probability wouldn’t be 1:89237645872364582 The probability that an independent event (A=obtaining a precursor) with a probability of 1/100 happens 50 times in a row would be P(A)= (1/100)^50 = 1e-100
That is: P(A)=1/10000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

If that isn’t enough minuscule probability for you, type that same expression with a sample size of 5000 as you suggested and tell me what valor does the calculator return. I bet we wouldn’t be able to type so many zeroes in all of the subforums combined. It’s just ridiculous.

I sometimes feel like some people keep parroting things that they have read many times in this forum just to sound smart instead of thinking a bit.

(edited by anabasis.7346)

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Posted by: Lady Deedra.3126

Lady Deedra.3126

Interesting reading.

Skjold Pjod
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Now if you are talking about misses, there’s a 60.5% chance of 50 failures out of 50 tries with 1 in 100 odds of success. 30.55% chance of success of 1 with the remaining 8.95% being more than 1.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

Also if we’re talking precursors the odds are not nearly as good as 1:100. Try 1 in 160.

(Sample size > 10,000 and growing).

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Posted by: Essence Snow.3194

Essence Snow.3194

Interesting reading.

May I ask you a question?

I’m going to be presumptuous and ask away.

Have you kept track of your forging? Amount thrown in etc…

Serenity now~Insanity later

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Posted by: Lady Deedra.3126

Lady Deedra.3126

Not really the way I should have. Most of the early on precursors I got were just on a whim. I didn’t really start keeping track of them until about my 50th one or so. It was more of a hobby if you will for the wife and I. We would basically farm all the events. Store all of our rares in our guild banks. Every couple days or so as we would reach a sizeable amount of rares and exotics, I would toss them in the forge. When I started to get more than 1 in a day I started keeping track of them. The most I have ever gotten in 1 day is 9. The most I have ever gotten in 1 round of tossing them in was 3. I normally forge with at least 250 rares. Of the 307 precursors I have currently forged, they have all been from the forge. I have never gotten a pre as a drop or off a champ or as q quest reward. Also of the 307 I have gotten I would say about 1/3rd have come directly off of rares. I never throw in armor, I salvage / sell based off the usual method of determining its best value. I also never throw in 4 of the same rares. After getting so many pre’s I really don’t care what comes out.

Skjold Pjod
I am “That” guy you have all heard about.
1,073 precursors forged and counting.

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Posted by: DeShadowWolf.6854

DeShadowWolf.6854

Having skipped over much of the thread, this is directed @OP.

Don’t we all agree that the costs of precursors are too high and the increase of 600g in 2/3 months is not possible to keep up with for the regular gamer.
And I DO find that also regular gamers should have a feeling of getting somewhere while they grind! I played over 2000 hours and last few months i was gathering money to buy the dawn for 600g, to see now its increased to 1200g!

First of all, please stop pretending you are all regular gamers, and the you speak for the trees -ahem- I mean, speak for the ppl. It doesn’t help. To adress your main points: while 600g over 2-3 months is hard to keep up with, this is a spike. If you look at the greater length of its gw2spidy history, it rose only 110g or so over 1 year (March 2013-March 2014). As ppl have already pointed out, this is due to the wardrobe etc. As to the 2000 hours, that comes out to 0.3g per hour. If you are unwilling to compromise on what you spend your time doing, it may be a good idea for you to reconsider what is a good and accomplishable goal for you. I, having no such problems, bought Spark for 1175g a few weeks ago, and now happily own Incinerator.

Sorry, but this is outrageous. Next to buying these things and be lucky (where I feel that still the same accounts have the luck of finding these….) The precursors shoudl be craftable..

People have begged and Anet has said this is coming for more than a year now. If they add it, they’ll take their time.

and next to this, there should be a change in the marketing system. Yes I know its inflation, can’t change it, its anonymous, players affect this market etc… But there should be done something about it. newcomers will never get a precursor and I have grinded these lat months for nothing and feel I didn’t get somewhere.. And I thought that this was just important, be patient and get stuff and see you increase in stuff you have? Well the last few months I barely could keep up with the inflation..

I’m sorry to say this, but you grinded (ground?) at the wrong time. Its not inflation per se, but a large spike in demand. Just remember, you did get somewhere. You now have 600g from that grind that you didn’t before.

and yes, I will probably hear, you don’t have to be hardcore gamer to get enough money, bu still… I wnat to play this game in relax mode and still need to feel my improvement over the game. Well this was 0 these last few months!

See above about compromising.

600g increase in money (at my slow chill pace) only to keep up with whatever the reason is for precursors to rise with 600g doesn’t feel like improvement and getting somewhere with my time put in the game! That is the baseline!

You’re comparing the entirety of what you’ve done in search of your legendary to a moving, player-controlled price. Thats where you are going wrong. Compare yourself to where you were 4 months ago.

And that is what Anet should consider. I feel like a gamer that I am standing still in those months. As the coolness for me is saving and gaining stuff in those months. But that is zero as I focussed on the precursors these last months.
So whatever the reason is, I feel like I was only keeping up and standing still the same time. That makes it for me a bad game ATM.
And apparently Anet don’t care and you are missing the point. I don’t feel like getting there! but who cares, right

They should consider what? That one player wants to get the most expensive weapons in the game for killing lvl 7 skale all day? I’m sure you aren’t doing that in particular, but it illustrates my point. Gw2 is pretty good, as that goes. Some games its every weekend, going into the same dungeon, doing the same content, hoping for the same 0.00000001% chance drop from the end boss to move up to the next dungeon, and so on…..until they add another set of dungeons for you to grind through. For others, you’re doing incredibly hard content, trying not to die, to farm challenging mobs for their rare drops. Gw2 gives you money for dungeons, gathering, killing easy mobs in the open world. Just don’t expect to make a fortune off of lvl 15 centaurs.

Sorry there, didn’t mean to rant

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Posted by: Dutchdevil.6902

Dutchdevil.6902

I got 600g more then few months ago, that because of inflation or demand or whatever almost worth nothing. so yeah maybe i went from 200g to 800g, but all increased to, so still where is the feeling of improvement. I got money in the bank which I can buy the same things with now with 800g, but few months ago for 200g. It’s maybe a bit of exaggeration, but i hope ANET and you all get my point.
It was just a waste of time, for example if i grinded this a year ago when prices where more stable (anyway better then now) I could buy more for 800g then instead of 200g then..
I don’t know what to say to convince you guys.. anyway, time down the drain, hopefully the next 600g is also not keeping up with demand/inflation/whatever…

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

Gems, Precursors and Legendaries. The most desirable items always appreciate. Luxury goods never go down, just like IRL.

Get together with some friends and buy as many as you can with your spare money. As John Smith will doubtless attest: You are guaranteed (allegedly) to get more back when you sell.

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

(edited by Svarty.8019)

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

If it is too hard for you to get a legendary, you might want to consider giving it up.

If getting a legendary is the only reason you play the game. I suggest you find a new game. I seen too many people who spent all their in game time farming for legendary, and once they got there, they quit the game.

If legendary is easy to get, it wont’ be called legendary. That being said, it used to be so much cheaper if you get your legendary earlier. So it’s understandable why people complaining.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Svarty.8019

Svarty.8019

If it is too hard for you to get a legendary, you might want to consider giving it up.

If getting a legendary is the only reason you play the game. I suggest you find a new game. I seen too many people who spent all their in game time farming for legendary, and once they got there, they quit the game.

I agree with this, I’ve seen it too. It’s as though there’s nothing else going on. Crazy!

If legendary is easy to get, it wont’ be called legendary.

It’s been said many times that buying things from the TP is not legendary in any way.

That being said, it used to be so much cheaper if you get your legendary earlier. So it’s understandable why people complaining.

It used to cost all your gold and stacks, and now it costs … all your gold and stacks. So… same price but different numbers.

Nobody at Anet loves WvW like Grouch loved PvP. That’s what we need, a WvW Grouch, but taller.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Hi Anet,

Again I put a topic down on this forum about the rediculous costs of precorsors these days and also about all other cost regarding legandaries that have increased since the patch.

Don’t we all agree that the costs of precursors are too high and the increase of 600g in 2/3 months is not possible to keep up with for the regular gamer.
And I DO find that also regular gamers should have a feeling of getting somewhere while they grind! I played over 2000 hours and last few months i was gathering money to buy the dawn for 600g, to see now its increased to 1200g!!

Sorry, but this is outrageous. Next to buying these things and be lucky (where I feel that still the same accounts have the luck of finding these….) The precursors shoudl be craftable..

and next to this, there should be a change in the marketing system. Yes I know its inflation, can’t change it, its anonymous, players affect this market etc… But there should be done something about it. newcomers will never get a precursor and I have grinded these lat months for nothing and feel I didn’t get somewhere.. And I thought that this was just important, be patient and get stuff and see you increase in stuff you have? Well the last few months I barely could keep up with the inflation..

and yes, I will probably hear, you don’t have to be hardcore gamer to get enough money, bu still… I wnat to play this game in relax mode and still need to feel my improvement over the game. Well this was 0 these last few months!

So Anet, are we going to do something about it? As a fan who played GW1 so long and now GW2 since day one, buying gems etc, I hope I will be heard.
I don’t post or complain much, but this is to much!

Regards

Anet stated several times that precursor prices are working as intended because they are player driven. They also usually dont comment on future plans (regarding precursor crafting), so i dont know why you have to make yet another topic about it.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: Ohoni.6057

Ohoni.6057

The wardrobe should not have doubled demand. Yes, it’s nice to be able to use one legendary on multiple characters, but at the same time, you can use one legendary on multiple characters, so there should be less Legendaries needed overall.

In any case, an increase in demand should not automatically lead to an increase in price, it does not justify a massive increase in price, because as demand increase, it is ALWAYS within ANet’s power to increase supply accordingly and keep prices stable, they have CHOSEN not to do so, and that is the source of most players’ complaint.

Inflation plays a role, too. With the game nearing its second anniversary, players have acquired more and more wealth (my friend logs on once every two weeks now and each time she comes back, she throws some of her hoarded inventory on the TP and returns to find 80-120g waiting for her). We’ve figured out ever more efficient farming techniques.

And if this argument is used as an excuse then it effectively means that the average player will NEVER be able to afford luxury goods, because while they will get richer and richer over time, they will never keep up with inflation and always only be able to afford what things were priced at six months ago, never what things are priced at today. Can you understand why this may be a frustrating experience for those caught in that vortex?

If they increase the drop rate a tiny amount, the cost of building a legendary might actually increase: more people will start hoarding T6 mats and lodestones, driving prices of those items up (and there’s precedent that suggests that even precursor prices would rise, too).

And this is why game companies hire economists, because ideally they can judgethese scenarios and correct for them. If you’re right that more precursors would lead to higher priced T6 mats, then they could, for example, increase the drop opportunities for T6 mats, increasing their supply and therefore lowering their price to more moderate levels.

You guys always talk about supply and demand as if it justifies results. This is not the real world in which supply is fixed by the realities of ore in the ground and manufacturing processes. Both supply and demand are largely controlled directly by ANet, by the mechanisms they put in place. If they want the price of Powerful Blood to be 1c on the market, then they can make the price 1c by having it drop with every single kill in the game. Not that I think they should go that far, obviously, but they have had two years to figure out how players react to their game, and they know places where they can increase/decrease drop rates to achieve the price point they want. If something is of a given price on the marketplace, it is NEVER due to “natural market forces,” because at any given time ANet could just flip a switch and change the entire nature of those “market forces.”

If they increase the drop rate by too much, then legendaries become devalued for the current owners.

Kitten’em. If they can’t be happy having a legendary unless they know that a lot of other players don’t, then I don’t care one bit whether they are happy. The value in a legendary should be enjoying having your own, not from enjoying the misery of others who do not.

“If you spent as much time working on [some task] as
you spend complaining about it on the forums, you’d be
done by now.”

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Posted by: Obtena.7952

Obtena.7952

I have a feeling that the OP is not a TP enthusiast nor a “hardcore” player. Thus they would be in the lower/majority segment of the population that doesn’t have the same elevated earning potential. When prices of certain items are dictated by those with elevated gold, those w/o are s-o-l. It’s probably the reason there are so many threads about it…..ya think?

The number of threads are due to the unreasonable expectations of players that don’t play to earn what is necessary to own a legendary. Anet even has a solution for those people; Ascended weapons.

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Posted by: Ohoni.6057

Ohoni.6057

The number of threads are due to the unreasonable expectations of players that don’t play to earn what is necessary to own a legendary. Anet even has a solution for those people; Ascended weapons.

Or it’s due to the reasonable expectations of players that ANet is choosing not to meet. Really, when players demand a feature that would take thousands of manhours of work on ANet’s part, then it’s easy to chalk that up as something that is potentially unreasonable, but when it’s something that would be as easy to fix as changing a single number in a loot table, it’s hard to argue that the players’ expectations of fairness are unreasonable. EVERY player who has been playing since launch should have a Legendary by now, most should have two, almost none should have more than that, that is the reasonable expectation. That there are plenty who have none, few who have multiples, and a decent number who have several is not a symptom of a game in which players have an unreasonable expectation that they should have legendaries of their own. That ANet felt the need to hand out achievements to players that were lucky enough to have TWO legendaries while many have none is a sign of an economy off kilter.

“If you spent as much time working on [some task] as
you spend complaining about it on the forums, you’d be
done by now.”

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Posted by: Izaya.2906

Izaya.2906

The number of threads are due to the unreasonable expectations of players that don’t play to earn what is necessary to own a legendary. Anet even has a solution for those people; Ascended weapons.

Or it’s due to the reasonable expectations of players that ANet is choosing not to meet. Really, when players demand a feature that would take thousands of manhours of work on ANet’s part, then it’s easy to chalk that up as something that is potentially unreasonable, but when it’s something that would be as easy to fix as changing a single number in a loot table, it’s hard to argue that the players’ expectations of fairness are unreasonable. EVERY player who has been playing since launch should have a Legendary by now, most should have two, almost none should have more than that, that is the reasonable expectation. That there are plenty who have none, few who have multiples, and a decent number who have several is not a symptom of a game in which players have an unreasonable expectation that they should have legendaries of their own. That ANet felt the need to hand out achievements to players that were lucky enough to have TWO legendaries while many have none is a sign of an economy off kilter.

And precursor crafting wouldn’t solve the “problem” for everyone.

It’ll only benefit individuals who are only missing a precursor to craft a legendary, others who acquired a precursor first or haven’t done much at all will face higher t6/lodestones prices balancing out with the cheaper/easier precursor acquisition.

Further side effect of that is that T6/lodestones are tied to exotic/ascended crafting and will increase the cost to craft those weapons/armors. Players who wanna craft exotic/ascended(obviously a majority compared to players who want to craft legendary) will have to deal with higher material prices for the items they want to craft.

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Posted by: Obtena.7952

Obtena.7952

The number of threads are due to the unreasonable expectations of players that don’t play to earn what is necessary to own a legendary. Anet even has a solution for those people; Ascended weapons.

Or it’s due to the reasonable expectations of players that ANet is choosing not to meet.

Let’s be clear. Anet sets the expectations; they program the game. Whatever Anet decides is the definition of what is reasonable. Players only choice is to abide and enjoy the game or they don’t, maybe QQ a while, hate it and perhaps leave. Frankly, what players think is reasonable isn’t relevant because they don’t set expectations to Anet. It’s NOT reasonable for every player to own a legendary so when the average dude thinks he should have one, it’s not inline with the way Anet has made the game. It’s NOT the other way around.

When the consumer starts setting the prices for goods and services, you might have a point but currently as consumers, you have NO ability to define the expectations you have for a product and have that product delivered to you unless you pay for that level of service. That’s not the relationship Anet has with it’s customers. You play the game they provide you. You pay for the privilege to access and play it, not dictate terms on what you want in the game. Read the EULA.

(edited by Obtena.7952)