Data on UDs?

Data on UDs?

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: Arganthium.5638

Arganthium.5638

I just remembered- to the extent of my knowledge, no statistical work has been done on the amount of gold you can get per every Unidentified Dye that you identify. Just wanted to put this up as a “hey, look at this” kind of thing on the forums. Unfortunately, I have neither the money (my character is pretty dirt-poor, although I did manage to get some farming in today. Pulled an armored scale for approx. 25 silver, powerful blood for a little over thirty silver, a UD for about 15 silver, and tons of other great stuff) nor the time required to get this data. If anybody would be willing to volunteer to do this, that would be fantastic. The nice thing is that, unlike Geo’s data collection on ectos drop rates, this would be a relatively less expensive/time-consuming study. However, keep in mind that whoever does decide to collect the data could be in for either a huge disappointment… Or a huge reward.

The only concern I would have with this study is the huge variation in the prices on dyes. With the cheapest dyes costing less than 50c, and the most expensive ones costing around 20g or whatever the price is nowadays, we’re going to have some major outliers in the data set. We’ll have to account for those in data collection.

Anyways, posting this to raise awareness about the topic.

Thief|Mesmer|
Theorycrafter

Data on UDs?

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

The biggest concern is the drop ratios – what is the common/masterwork/rare ratio of dyes that you get? I’m perfectly happy to assume that all dyes of the same tier are equally common, but nailing down the ratios of each tier is a big deal and would have a pretty big effect on your expected value from cracking a dye.

I’ve read 60/30/10 before, which passes the smell test – but I’d want a sample size of ~1000 dyes to be confident in my result, and the last time I ran the numbers I concluded that cracking unidentified dyes was a money losing proposition (at those numbers), so I didn’t pursue it further.

I’ll take another look when spidy comes back up, if the outlook is at least neutral I’ll think about tossing a buy order down for a thousand dyes.