Guild Wars 2

All dye prices are up across the board. The common dyes are up 10x over pre-blog prices. Did ANet intend for this to happen? Is it a planned manipulation to remove stock from the market?

In short one of two scenarios occurred:

1. Nobody reviewed the blog to analyze the market impact
2. The blog was reviewed and the market impact understood and desired

There are no other options (when you have a degreed economist on staff). So which was it?

Option 3: It was obvious that this would announcement would shake the market up, but it was unavoidable and the least-bad way of doing things.

How do you think they should have done it? When IRL stuff changes governments often don’t announce it for this very reason; but in this case I think ANet was right to prioritise communication over the blood-pressure of speculators.

I doubt anyone at ANet didn’t see this coming – it was pretty obvious – although they may well have been taken by surprise at the speed of it.

So the TL;DR version: lesser of two evils, and I bet some staff made a killing on flipping dyes.

I don’t quite understand what you’re trying to imply

Vol.7601:

I don’t quite understand what you’re trying to imply

I don’t think there’s any implication — I’m rather direct with the whole post.

The market has changed substantially. Either it was planned or it wasn’t. If it was not, then it’s a sad example of poor information control. If it was planned, then I’d like to hear why.

Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?

And by ‘plan’ I don’t mean they held a meeting and discussed that they wanted dyes A through Z to be x price. They planned that there would be market fluctuations from said change, and to consider what impacts it would have, one of them being the Gift of Color.

DavidSev.6978:

Option 3: It was obvious that this would announcement would shake the market up, but it was unavoidable and the least-bad way of doing things.

How do you think they should have done it? When IRL stuff changes governments often don’t announce it for this very reason; but in this case I think ANet was right to prioritise communication over the blood-pressure of speculators.

I doubt anyone at ANet didn’t see this coming – it was pretty obvious – although they may well have been taken by surprise at the speed of it.

So the TL;DR version: lesser of two evils, and I bet some staff made a killing on flipping dyes.

It doesn’t take much thought-investment to come up with alternate approaches to releasing this information, or in the design of the new system. Some obvious ones that I came up with:

1. BLOG: no mention of unid dyes for duplicate (low market impact)
2. DESIGN: no unid dyes for duplicates after system goes live (lowest market impact)

Vol.7601:

Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?

Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?

The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.

Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?

What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?

juno.1840:

Vol.7601:

Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?

Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?

The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.

Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?

Again, I don’t see what you’re arguing over and I don’t see how in any way this should be controversial. What I think I’m getting at from you is that Anet should not release any content whatsoever that should impact any markets.

JoeytheHutt.1742:

What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?

If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.

The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.

juno.1840:

Vol.7601:

Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?

Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?

The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.

Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?

I’m sure they felt it necessary because this is a big change that people have been asking for for a long time. And this “market manipulation” is a short term problem. Once the patch hits and everything becomes account bound this problem will go away. Since people are mostly just buying these common dyes to get uid on patch day.

Why would there need to be an alternate approach?

Other than throwing a hissyfit because someone else made more profit than you there is really no need to care.

juno.1840:

JoeytheHutt.1742:

What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?

If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.

The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.

And what difference does that suggestion make? You would be making this very same post on patch day.

RemiRome.8495:

Why would there need to be an alternate approach?

Other than throwing a hissyfit because someone else made more profit than you there is really no need to care.

Yeah I think OP is just really mad he missed out on all the gold to be made. I missed it myself, but hey, too bad.

Vol.7601:

juno.1840:

Vol.7601:

Of course it was ‘planned’ and discussed. Why in the world would you think otherwise? Why would you need to question such a thing?

Assuming it was planned and discussed, why wouldn’t I question such a thing?

The market is substantially different. It’s impacting any player that would like to obtain a dye.

Don’t you want to know why ANet felt it was necessary?

Again, I don’t see what you’re arguing over and I don’t see how in any way this should be controversial. What I think I’m getting at from you is that Anet should not release any content whatsoever that should impact any markets.

Again: not arguing — asking. It is controversial because it impacted the market (significantly). As a Player I’d like to know why.

I hope they intended to change the market, because that’s what happened. I like to think one of my favorite game companies has enough experience to not make noobish market mistakes purely due to information control.

TLDR: ANet should not release any information that impacts the market before changes go live.

Vol.7601:

juno.1840:

JoeytheHutt.1742:

What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?

If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.

The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.

And what difference does that suggestion make? You would be making this very same post on patch day.

No I would not because the market would not be impacted on patch day. You cannot grab a bunch of dyes to get free unid dyes after the patch is live.

I don’t care about missed profits. I care that I cannot buy common dyes for 2s each right now. Not a single dye is listed below 20s (at the time of this post).

That impacts every player that wants a dye. This isn’t a hard concept. Stop being fanbois and think about it.

Yeah, no. I’m sure the marketing benefits of providing previews and pre-release blogposts outweigh the ‘negatives’ of speculative repercussions, especially when there would be virtually no difference between releasing information before changes and during changes.

So you planned on buying common dyes right before the patch for no reason?

Vol.7601:

Yeah, no. I’m sure the marketing benefits of providing previews and pre-release blogposts outweigh the ‘negatives’ of speculative repercussions, especially when there would be virtually no difference between releasing information before changes and during changes.

Except in this case there is a big difference between releasing the information before vs at the patch. Common dyes would still be 2s (if not cheaper) if the information was released with the patch. You are smart enough to see this Vol.

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

juno.1840:

Vol.7601:

Yeah, no. I’m sure the marketing benefits of providing previews and pre-release blogposts outweigh the ‘negatives’ of speculative repercussions, especially when there would be virtually no difference between releasing information before changes and during changes.

Except in this case there is a big difference between releasing the information before vs at the patch. Common dyes would still be 2s (if not cheaper) if the information was released with the patch. You are smart enough to see this Vol.

I find this funny. If you honestly appreciate his knowledge of the market since he’s made more money off of it then either you or I will, I would trust his opinion a bit more.

kokiman.2364:

So you planned on buying common dyes right before the patch for no reason?

I have been buying dyes for my cultural armor I just obtained. However that’s not relevant — the prices are the prices, and the patch arrives when the patch arrives.

The common dye prices have changed for one reason alone and that’s the release of the blog. It’s also obvious (with little thought) on how the blog could have been worded different to avoid the entire price change.

As a Player I’d like to know why ANet felt it was necessary to impact that market so substantially. If it was an accident then it’s simple to say “yeah it was an accident”. If it was not, I’d like to know why 2s was not healthy for a common dye.

Anet did not manipulate the market, all they did was change the dye system to be in many ways better, ie…a quality of life improvement.

Its was economically illiterate players that panic buy, plus some shrewd/greedy players that overall caused a massive boom bubble, followed by a slight crash…

Schizo.1375:

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?

The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.

These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.

juno.1840:

This isn’t a hard concept. Stop being fanbois and think about it.

rolf……..never gonna happen. If you wanted valid feedback you’re barking up the wrong tree.

juno.1840:

Schizo.1375:

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?

The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.

These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.

I’m not going to try to push my opinion onto you by using words such as “fact” and “obvious” but I’ll ask a question and let you arrive at your own conclusion. Say the patch goes live, demand for uid’s rise thanks to panic of them disappearing as drops the same way it happened yesterday. You still have a few holes in your color pallete and want to fill them in but uid’s are now 1g a piece. What do you do?

Schizo.1375:

juno.1840:

Schizo.1375:

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?

The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.

These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.

I’m not going to try to push my opinion onto you by using words such as “fact” and “obvious” but I’ll ask a question and let you arrive at your own conclusion. Say the patch goes live, demand for uid’s rise thanks to panic of them disappearing as drops the same way it happened yesterday. You still have a few hole’s in your color pallete and want to fill them in but uid’s are now 1g a piece. What do you do?

Why would you buy unid dyes to fill a “hole in your palette”? Your use case is not a common one.

You are focusing on unid dyes — and I’m talking identified dyes (which is the majority of the dye market). If you want a specific dye, you don’t generally buy unid and gamble for it.

Right now all common dyes are 20s+ — this is 10x higher in price than before the blog (most common dyes were sitting at 2s). The only reason for this increase is information control in the dye blog. That’s fact — not opinion.

Anet gave a valueless item some new increased value and gave us all a few weeks heads up to prepare for the change. Its no different than when ascended crafting exploded the prices for the then-useless crafting materials.

The way theyre doing this is all positive in my opinion. It even increases the relative value of all dye packs since even the failed rolls with those will turn out some gold.

Solo.9027:

Anet gave a valueless item some new increased value and gave us all a few weeks heads up to prepare for the change. Its no different than when ascended crafting exploded the prices for the then-useless crafting materials.

The way theyre doing this is all positive in my opinion. It even increases the relative value of all dye packs since even the failed rolls with those will turn out some gold.

ANet gave common, identified dyes an artificial, increased value pre-patch as a result of the blog. They had value before (2s), and now they have a much higher value (20s).

Players did not buy those dyes because they suddenly became fashionable to have. Players bought those dyes to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.

Why fudge with the market like that? What was wrong with Pastel Pink Dye at 1.76s?

juno.1840:

kokiman.2364:

So you planned on buying common dyes right before the patch for no reason?

I have been buying dyes for my cultural armor I just obtained. However that’s not relevant — the prices are the prices, and the patch arrives when the patch arrives.

The common dye prices have changed for one reason alone and that’s the release of the blog. It’s also obvious (with little thought) on how the blog could have been worded different to avoid the entire price change.

As a Player I’d like to know why ANet felt it was necessary to impact that market so substantially. If it was an accident then it’s simple to say “yeah it was an accident”. If it was not, I’d like to know why 2s was not healthy for a common dye.

Many people buy common dyes for 20s now to get a free unid dye after patch because they think they make a bargain as unid dyes cost over 40s now. Once patch hits, nobody will buy unid dyes because everybody got enough. Some people will be fast enough to fill those buy orders that are posted between 35-20 silver to get some value back for the unid dyes. Once the buy orders for unid dyes reach 20s, people will realize that they didnt make a bargain after all, paying 20s for a common dye right now, just to get a unid dye on patch day.

Anet didnt impact the market, the players do. If you didnt buy a dye since the announcement and wont until patch day, you are not affected by the market spike at all but still get to use every single dye you previously owned for all your characters now. Thats a pretty good win for you and if you have a dye unlocked on multiple characters, you even get free unids back. So how does it exactly negatively impact you right now, that someone else feels the urge to pay 20s for a common dye?

juno.1840:

JoeytheHutt.1742:

What do you mean with infocontrol?
If it’d be announced 2 weeks before, we would just see tp react 2 weeks before.
Wouldnt it?

If the “unid dye” portion of the blog was never mentioned until release it would have avoided much of the current market turmoil.

The only reason common dyes are so expensive right now is because players grabbed them to get free unid dyes after the patch goes live.

Without people duplicating, we would face a patch where dyes suddenly were removed from loot-tables. Wich probably mean unid dyes would spike after patch.
No sensible person would pop all their “free” unids at once, as no-one knows how big the drop in supply is.
Im not sure there is a “good” way to do this (apart from keeping it drop), I believe the prices would raise anyway. I will not be surprised if unid becomes way more expencive 4-5 months from now on, as Anet want us to spend gems for stuff rather than play for stuff.
At least those who are workin on the gift got a warning.
Maybe the price of commons wouldnt change so much, but it would go up, as people would speculate, buy for forging or just get them in fear of future prices.

juno.1840:

It’s also obvious (with little thought) on how the blog could have been worded different to avoid the entire price change.

How without being bombarded with questions from the community?

I think that dyes in general would increase in value considering that they now unlock account wide. I also think this will be a short-lived trend because once you get the dye, you will never need it again. As time goes on, the demand for it will dwindle as more accounts get most of the dyes unlocked. The price will go back down, but probably never back to the price dyes were before the announcement. At least this is what I think will happen. I could be wrong lol.

Wanze.8410:

Anet didnt impact the market, the players do.

As a direct result of information that ANet posted. Cause and Effect — and this one is not subtle in the slightest.

Wanze.8410:

So how does it exactly negatively impact you right now, that someone else feels the urge to pay 20s for a common dye?

The negative impact is pretty clear: I either pay the new price of 20s for the dyes I want now, or wait some undetermined amount of time for the market to come back down to reality (assuming the prices adjust back to pre-blog levels). I can’t see the future, can you?

My question from the start has been “was this intentional?” and “why?”. Everyone seems to feel this was intentional, and I can agree with that (the alternative is incompetence). That leaves only one question… Why?

juno.1840:

Schizo.1375:

juno.1840:

Schizo.1375:

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?

The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.

These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.

I’m not going to try to push my opinion onto you by using words such as “fact” and “obvious” but I’ll ask a question and let you arrive at your own conclusion. Say the patch goes live, demand for uid’s rise thanks to panic of them disappearing as drops the same way it happened yesterday. You still have a few hole’s in your color pallete and want to fill them in but uid’s are now 1g a piece. What do you do?

Why would you buy unid dyes to fill a “hole in your palette”? Your use case is not a common one.

You are focusing on unid dyes — and I’m talking identified dyes (which is the majority of the dye market). If you want a specific dye, you don’t generally buy unid and gamble for it.

Right now all common dyes are 20s+ — this is 10x higher in price than before the blog (most common dyes were sitting at 2s). The only reason for this increase is information control in the dye blog. That’s fact — not opinion.

There is actually a relation to uids. But I’ll give you partial credit since you came close. You are right, people aren’t likely to buy uid’s. They are instead more likely to buy the specific dye or unidentified category that it belongs too. This is what creates the demand for these identified dyes. What might cause the supply?

Side note:
Also I’m not saying you are wrong about common dyes rising currently due to the uid’s on patch day. This is certainly a huge part of the market right now. What I’m trying to show is that common dyes would still rise if this tidbit of information wasn’t given. To what extent? Who knows, certainly not you or I.

juno.1840:

Schizo.1375:

I think its a bit far reaching to assume the same thing wouldn’t happen on patch day. Uids would still rise due to panic first, think later, and then people would move on to common dyes when the uids rise too high. Waiting wouldn’t make a difference.

Seriously? You’re saying ommon dyes would go up after the patch because people would “move onto them”? You read what you typed right?

The patch reduces dye demand. What has been created is artificial demand for cheap dyes so Players can get the blog-mentioned free unid dyes.

These are not opinions, it’s factual: Blog mentioned free unid dyes for duplicates — Players snatch-up cheap common dyes to create “duplicates”. Easy cause-effect.

You seriously think nothing would had happened if they didn’t released any information at all? If they just released this feature without telling players?

I invite you to look at all the other threads in each of the sub-forums, how many whinning threads did you found? Minimum 100 right? If they didn’t told people about this everyone would come to the forums and start crying because they didn’t got their free un-identified dyes on time before patch.

I thought that was known about this forums and the reason why Anet is giving this much communication, to avoid having to do a “roll-back” of the feature for a few weeks so that everyone can get their free loot.

This isn’t market manipulation coming from Anet, it’s a move Anet is doing to avoid having people that comes and whines for free loot.

I don’t think it was intentional at all. They wanted to provide enough information so players knew what to expect come patch day. What was your first reaction to the news that all unlocked dyes were going to be accountbound? Mine was, “Cool, now all my toons can share Abyss and Celestial dyes”, and my second thoughts were, “Did I just waste money buying 2 of the same dyes for different chars?! What happens to the dyes that were unlocked twice?” They just answered that portion of the question, and everyone and their grandmother decided to hop on the TP to take advantage of that. What should they have done? Not provide answers to questions that people will be asking and be flooded with hate for a few weeks or provide enough information so people know what to expect?

juno.1840:

Wanze.8410:

Anet didnt impact the market, the players do.

As a direct result of information that ANet posted. Cause and Effect — and this one is not subtle in the slightest.

Wanze.8410:

So how does it exactly negatively impact you right now, that someone else feels the urge to pay 20s for a common dye?

The negative impact is pretty clear: I either pay the new price of 20s for the dyes I want now, or wait some undetermined amount of time for the market to come back down to reality (assuming the prices adjust back to pre-blog levels). I can’t see the future, can you?

My question from the start has been “was this intentional?” and “why?”. Everyone seems to feel this was intentional, and I can agree with that (the alternative is incompetence). That leaves only one question… Why?

Because there is no harm done, markets change and i dont see how this is bad for the game as a whole.
John Smith had a big blogpost prior to the introduction of Ascended Crafting and Account MF in September where he briefed the community on upcoming changes to the economy and what to expect. I am not sure if you read it at that time but its a good read and in many ways still holds truth now (still waiting for jeweler and cooking 500):
https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/economy-report-brace-yourself-disequilibrium-is-coming/

I Quote:

Economic Concerns

Each of these changes will have an impact on the game economy, resetting equilibriums and creating some unfamiliar market forces—which is why we thought we’d brief you beforehand.

Since we’re changing the value of all weapons and armor in the game, when the release goes live all materials, armor and weapons will be knocked out of equilibrium.

We have a really large and really fast economy in Guild Wars 2, so many items will find themselves back in equilibrium before you even notice something changed, while other commodities will shift and fluctuate as players adapt to the new system.
What does this mean to you, the player? If you’re an avid Trading Post player it will be a really interesting time, watching how the markets fall back into place. If you’re less interested in the TP you can expect the rewards you previously sold to a vendor to be more valuable to everyone.

The economy in Guild Wars 2 has been incredibly stable since launch, and while we don’t intend to perform such a massive change to the markets often, we’re really excited about these changes. They’ll make each piece of our content uniquely rewarding, give players new goals that are clear and easy to work towards, and revise some old reward systems that held very little value. In the end, these changes are good for the game economy, but more importantly, they’re good for players.

juno.1840:

I can’t see the future, can you?

My question from the start has been “was this intentional?”

I find the answer to your last question is the answer to your first question.

There’s a difference between lack of information (resulting in player hate), and information that effects the market… I’m not impacted by player hate.

It is not possible to avoid all market impact from information release. A good example: “We’re going to release ascended armor in the few months”. It’ll impact the market regardless of how you say it (assuming you say it at all).

In this specific case, mentioning the free unid dyes from duplicates had dramatic impact. It was not a necessary piece of information to release in the blog regarding dyes. It could have been left as an unanswered question until patch day, or something obtuse could have been mentioned like “we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”

juno.1840:

It could have been left as an unanswered question until patch day

But people would bombard them with questions

juno.1840:

“we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”

Would have changed the prices in the same way

@Wanze: I understand and agree with your post in general. My big issue here is that this same feature (dyes) could have been blogged in different ways. The end-feature would be exactly the same, but the market impact would be dramatically different.

So why blog it to cause such dramatic (and predictable) market changes for dyes?

Part of me thinks that someone in ANet was thinking “hey, wanna see something funny? Watch this…”

kokiman.2364:

juno.1840:

“we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”

Would have changed the prices in the same way

No it would not have. Nobody would buy up Pastel Pink Dye, driving the price up to 20s. That’s a big risk at rewards which are????

All indications from the blog would be “reduced demand for dye” because you don’t need to buy dyes for alts. The exception is the portion about “dyes no longer drop”.

I don’t see how anyone would honestly say “it would have been the same” without the mention of “free unid dyes for duplicates” in the blog.

Yes, it’s intentional. Each dye how has the possibility to transform into an unidentified dye on the 15th. Let’s say that an unidentified dye is expected to be worth 40s on the 15th (but only if you use them). The expected value of a duplicate dye is also 40s. Therefore the current value of any dye is probably somewhere around 4/5 or 40s.

Once the transformation to unidentified dyes occurs, expect the price of those common dyes to plummet.

juno.1840:

There’s a difference between lack of information (resulting in player hate), and information that effects the market… I’m not impacted by player hate.

It is not possible to avoid all market impact from information release. A good example: “We’re going to release ascended armor in the few months”. It’ll impact the market regardless of how you say it (assuming you say it at all).

In this specific case, mentioning the free unid dyes from duplicates had dramatic impact. It was not a necessary piece of information to release in the blog regarding dyes. It could have been left as an unanswered question until patch day, or something obtuse could have been mentioned like “we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”

If we wouldnt be aware that hundreds of thousands, if not millions of unid dyes will flood the market on patch day, unid dyes would propably still sit at over 1g right now and identified dyes would have been bought out regardless as people would assume that after the patch hits, unid dyes wont drop anymore and the best way to get new dyes will be through crafting where even common dyes cost between 25s to 1.5g.

Of course anet manipulated the market, releasing information about changes to the dye system on the same day that new gemstore dyes were released.

Players who buy up the old identifying dyes for the purpose of destroying them to get unidentified dyes are also playing their part. All is proceeding as planned.

juno.1840:

kokiman.2364:

juno.1840:

“we’re planning something for duplicate dyes but it’s a surprise.”

Would have changed the prices in the same way

No it would not have. Nobody would buy up Pastel Pink Dye, driving the price up to 20s. That’s a big risk at rewards which are????

All indications from the blog would be “reduced demand for dye” because you don’t need to buy dyes for alts. The exception is the portion about “dyes no longer drop”.

I don’t see how anyone would honestly say “it would have been the same” without the mention of “free unid dyes for duplicates” in the blog.

Considering that there were less than 1k pastel pink dyes on the tp, i would definately have bought them up (or any other common dye with less than 1000 supply). Considering it costs over 50s to craft a common red dye, i would have bought up everything to 50s.

I personally find it hilarious that you think not announcing the unidentified dye change would of had LESS of an impact… It would of had a significantly higher impact since the vast majority of unidentified dyes would no longer be coming from patch day, thus making them significantly MORE rare, thus driving up the prices of dyes probably 5-10x higher then they went yesterday.

As it is now, prices rose modestly, and will plummet back down with the influx of unidentified dyes on patch day. Your method would have caused market devastation.

Wanze.8410:

Considering that there were less than 1k pastel pink dyes on the tp, i would definately have bought them up (or any other common dye with less than 1000 supply). Considering it costs over 50s to craft a common red dye, i would have bought up everything to 50s.

Yeah, this is one thing I meant to comment on, but wanted to do more research on first.

The dye price “spike” was largely because the volume of any one dye was so incredibly low. It took minutes for the low priced listed to sell because there weren’t that many of them, leaving only the older high priced dyes on the market.

So the consensus I hear is that the market would have reacted the same regardless if the blog said “free unid dyes” or not.

The discussion regarding how the prices would go up regardless of the ’free unid dyes" has been very informative. The talking points make sense to me and I do see how all dyes could have gone up to some degree due to speculation.

However I think it’s a stretch to say the current dye prices (20s for pink) are based mostly on speculation rather than “free unid dyes”. I believe (without proof) that those dyes were consumed in an attempt to get free unid’s later. Speculators would keep the dyes for future profit. ANet could provide data on how many dyes permanently left the market after the blog, but that’s a bunch of work on that end and doesn’t provide much value in this discussion.

In addition, I could argue that speculation would have occurred when the blog topics were published (which was days ago) — yet identified dye prices did not change.

TLDR: I believe the current identified dye prices are mostly due to “free unid dye” in the blog rather than speculation.