Double Black Lion Claim Ticket Chances!

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Posted by: FearedbytheGods.8617

FearedbytheGods.8617

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/double-black-lion-claim-ticket-chances/?utm_source=client

Just wondering if people have found a significant increase, about the same or perhaps less.

I realise its entirely subjective but wanted opinions from people that have recently used keys.

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Posted by: sirflamesword.3896

sirflamesword.3896

I’ve farmed something like 10 keys today and I’ve gotten 2 scraps, RNG is still crap RNG. Of course overall(hundreds/thousands of keys) I would probably see an increase, but who knows.

Pinnacle of Responsibility[Mom]-Yaks Bend
Unstable Shield, Unstable Light

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Posted by: Astral Projections.7320

Astral Projections.7320

I’ve farmed something like 10 keys today and I’ve gotten 2 scraps, RNG is still crap RNG. Of course overall(hundreds/thousands of keys) I would probably see an increase, but who knows.

^
Pretty much, if you are one of the unfortunate people who opens up 50 chests and get one scrap you might not feel it’s been increased by much.

But on average, if it took 50 keys before this, then on average it will take 25. That’s still a fair number of keys.

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Posted by: JusticarArkiel.1564

JusticarArkiel.1564

double of 0% is still 0%

Fix what you have before you build something new

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Posted by: koiruus.2450

koiruus.2450

I opened 5 black lion chests and got 1 black lion ticket and 4 ticket scraps

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Posted by: Romek.4201

Romek.4201

RNGwars 2 … – not for me

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

In the words of Tribble trader Cyrano Jones, twice nothing is still nothing.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: khani.4786

khani.4786

33 keys got me 1 full ticket and 14 scraps.

Honestly, I wish this was the normal drop rate with as much as it costs to buy keys. :P

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Posted by: TheMagickDoll.7594

TheMagickDoll.7594

This is one aspect of the game I deeply dislike. A double chance is still a chance. It won’t make me any more inclined to buy keys then it did before, which was no chance. If you want me to buy gems then stop putting these weapon skins behind this lock boxes. Even then, the skins that are in the gem store needs to be cut in half. I think then people would be more inclined to buy more items if they were so priced more reasonably. It reminds me of a price gouging Nexon store.

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Posted by: sAdam.5876

sAdam.5876

Ehm guys maybe I read wrong, but isn’t the chance increase only through 11 to 12’th of this month?

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Posted by: Astral Projections.7320

Astral Projections.7320

Ehm guys maybe I read wrong, but isn’t the chance increase only through 11 to 12’th of this month?

It’s worded kind of vaguely imo. From yesterday’s update thru the 11th to the update on the 12th.

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/double-black-lion-claim-ticket-chances/?utm_source=client
Now through August 11, every Black Lion Chest has double the normal chances to drop a Black Lion Claim Ticket or Black Lion Ticket Scraps! Scraps can be converted into Claim Tickets, which are used to purchase our exclusive weapon skins from Black Lion Weapons Specialists. Act quickly – this deal only lasts until the release on August 12! Keys are available in the Black Lion Trading Company Gem Store.

Sooo, thru the 11th until the update on the 12th. (Why not just say till the update on the 12th if that’s what they mean) >.>

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Posted by: rojak.1894

rojak.1894

It’s still bad, and they should really remove items like skill scroll and essences of luck from the table.

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Posted by: khani.4786

khani.4786

It’s still bad, and they should really remove items like skill scroll and essences of luck from the table.

And while some people may like getting them…I don’t want any more of the PvP custom arena tokens. I don’t even know anyone who has a custom arena >.<

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

In the words of Tribble trader Cyrano Jones, twice nothing is still nothing.

If the droprate was zero, how did all the black lion weapons get on the tp?

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

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Posted by: ozmaniandevil.6805

ozmaniandevil.6805

I have found the BL tickets to drop quite a lot lately. Using 25 keys I ended up with 3 full tickets plus enough scraps to get a 4th. Not bad IMO. Since the new update with increased chances, I’ve often gotten 2 scraps per key, plus another full ticket. I now have 8 full tickets in my bank plus 7 scraps. omg i’ma be soooooooooo rich :p

Isle of Janthir – Knights of the Rose (KoR)

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Posted by: Blude.6812

Blude.6812

It’s still bad, and they should really remove items like skill scroll and essences of luck from the table.

Like Huey Lewis and the News once sang
“Sometimes, sometimes
Sometimes bad is bad
Aah, dit, dit, dit, dit, dit
Doo wop, wop
Cool is a rule, but
sometimes, bad is bad
Aah, dit, dit, dit, dit, dit”

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Posted by: Svetli.4276

Svetli.4276

from 0.1% to 0.2 that is what they mean
they just try to make you buy more keys

“What you wish for may not be what she wishes for.” – Skull Knight

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Posted by: Taygus.4571

Taygus.4571

opened 30 chests, .. got 2 tickets + 8 scraps, first time getting actual tickets!

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Posted by: ZilentNight.5089

ZilentNight.5089

Current drop rate with the increase is 2 scraps every 5 keys and about 1 ticket drop every 25 keys.

so about 40% scrap drop rate and a 4% ticket drop rate.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

You won’t see “average” results if you’re only opening a few dozen chests. The BL keys are lotto tickets: some people win big, some people win small, but most people end up with recycling materials

At least with BL Keys, if you open enough™, you’ll eventually end up with 10 scraps, i.e. enough for the skin-of-the-month.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: zenleto.6179

zenleto.6179

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/double-black-lion-claim-ticket-chances/?utm_source=client

Just wondering if people have found a significant increase, about the same or perhaps less.

I realise its entirely subjective but wanted opinions from people that have recently used keys.

Don’t know if it would count as statistically significant but yes.

Fire up the Hyperbowl ma, we’re going to town!

Would you like some hard cheeze with your sad whine?

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Posted by: kokiman.2364

kokiman.2364

double of 0% is still 0%

What? The chance to get a scrap is not 0% it’s 20%

GuildWars 2

Currently playing Heart of Thorns.

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Posted by: binidj.5734

binidj.5734

The crazy thing is that I’d happily part with cash to buy weapon tickets outright, and I don’t think I’m alone in that. Buying a lottery ticket though? Nah, I don’t want the skins that much.

Still, as long as people continue to buy keys, nothing will change.

Glad to be [Grey] – http://thegrey.enjin.com/home
Piken Square

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

The crazy thing is that I’d happily part with cash to buy weapon tickets outright, and I don’t think I’m alone in that. Buying a lottery ticket though? Nah, I don’t want the skins that much.

Still, as long as people continue to buy keys, nothing will change.

ya but you can still buy the skin from the trading post, can’t you?

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Posted by: JusticarArkiel.1564

JusticarArkiel.1564

double of 0% is still 0%

What? The chance to get a scrap is not 0% it’s 20%

that clearly can’t be right, as i have opened almost 100 chests since i started this game (all of the keys earned from map complete, random drop, or story instance, before anybody says i spent way too much), and have gotten not ONE ticket scrap or full ticket. yes, the rate is more than 0%, i was just exaggerating, but it isn’t that much more

Fix what you have before you build something new

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Posted by: kokiman.2364

kokiman.2364

double of 0% is still 0%

What? The chance to get a scrap is not 0% it’s 20%

that clearly can’t be right, as i have opened almost 100 chests since i started this game (all of the keys earned from map complete, random drop, or story instance, before anybody says i spent way too much), and have gotten not ONE ticket scrap or full ticket. yes, the rate is more than 0%, i was just exaggerating, but it isn’t that much more

RNG is RNG

See this video, the guy opened 500 chests and 102 scraps

GuildWars 2

Currently playing Heart of Thorns.

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Posted by: Astral Projections.7320

Astral Projections.7320

double of 0% is still 0%

What? The chance to get a scrap is not 0% it’s 20%

that clearly can’t be right, as i have opened almost 100 chests since i started this game (all of the keys earned from map complete, random drop, or story instance, before anybody says i spent way too much), and have gotten not ONE ticket scrap or full ticket. yes, the rate is more than 0%, i was just exaggerating, but it isn’t that much more

On average it’s ~20%. But that’s the average over time over numerous chests. Any one person can open 100 chests and get nothing while a second person gets 40 scraps from that many. As they say, RNG is RNG.

http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Black_Lion_Chest/Drop_rate Here it shows a 25% drop rate for scraps. 347 scraps out of 1373 chests (at the time of this writing). This may be higher than the historical average which ran closer to the 20%

(edited by Astral Projections.7320)

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

Has anyone redone the averages since they changed the BL chests to only drop 3 items?

I used to average pretty close to 20% until they changed the chests to the current method. Currently i’m 0 for 10 on scraps since the chests changed.

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Posted by: FearedbytheGods.8617

FearedbytheGods.8617

So i took the plunge and did 2 rounds of 25.

Round 1: 1 Ticket +10 scraps (sorry didn’t take note of how many exactly). I received a number of those scraps as 2/3 when opening a chest.

Round 2: I received 0 tickets and 9 scraps (I counted this time). No 2/3.

(edited by FearedbytheGods.8617)

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Posted by: FearedbytheGods.8617

FearedbytheGods.8617

I used to average pretty close to 20% until they changed the chests to the current method. Currently i’m 0 for 10 on scraps since the chests changed.

That’s why I was curious to start this thread. When people say “RNG is RNG” it ignores the fact that RNG is based on coding which may not exclusively be RNG.

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Posted by: Astral Projections.7320

Astral Projections.7320

I used to average pretty close to 20% until they changed the chests to the current method. Currently i’m 0 for 10 on scraps since the chests changed.

That’s why I was curious to start this thread. When people say “RNG is RNG” it ignores the fact that RNG is based on coding which may not exclusively be RNG.

My expectations on this are, if historically it has averaged ~20% and if they say it’s doubled then it should be ~40%. (25 keys to get a ticket as opposed to 50 keys). But again, there can be so much variation around the average that for most people it may take the full ~25 keys to average out to the 40%. And when I say RNG is RNG I mean that some will get a ticket in much fewer keys and some will take much more.

Any information on a thread like this is too anecdotal, although interesting and of some use. It will be of more interest to see the new drop chances as reported on the wiki.

(edited by Astral Projections.7320)

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

I used to average pretty close to 20% until they changed the chests to the current method. Currently i’m 0 for 10 on scraps since the chests changed.

That’s why I was curious to start this thread. When people say “RNG is RNG” it ignores the fact that RNG is based on coding which may not exclusively be RNG.

When RNG is RNG they mean you have to do your analysis with knowledge of the distribution that RNG results have.

Looking at FearedbytheGods results of 19 scraps out of 50 chests does lend support that they doubled the odds of getting a scrap because the odds players often quote is 1 in 5 for a scrap. To be specific with a 40% chance fro a scrap, 19 is a 11.09% outcome and 20, the “expected” total, is a 11.46% outcome. If it was still a 20% chance then 19 out of 50 is only a 0.16% outcome.

A full ticket is a lot harder to tell. If a full ticket drops at 1/10th the rate of a scrap, then we are talking 4% versus 2%. The chance of 0, 1 and 2 out of 50 with the odds at 2% is 36.42%, 37.16%, 18.58% while with the odds at 4% they are 12.99%. 27.06%, 27.62%. There isn’t enough trials to tell.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

(edited by Behellagh.1468)

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Posted by: KerryTT.4792

KerryTT.4792

I’ll add my two cents. I am a moron who occasionally will buy black lion keys, so this attracted my like a dog to something foul smelling on the ground. I started with 6 claim scraps already on hand.
First 25 keys, 12 claim scraps, nothing exciting. (total 18)
Decided, what the heck, let’s go again.
Second 25 keys, 3 claim tickets, 18 scraps, plus several 1G+ minis, and some extra keys. Jackpot… (total 6 tickets)
For some reason, which escapes me, I decided to go one more time But this time I would open the chests in my Home instance for luck (adult beverages might have been involved)
25 keys… 8 claim scraps.. not much else.. stupid idea… (6 tickets, 8 scraps)
I ran a new character through the storyline to get a key and then decided to buy 5 keys. I used 6 keys and got 2 scraps. So, a total of 7 Claim tickets after all this.
Since I ended with no spare scraps, I am almost positive I am done for a while…. maybe. Good luck to the rest of you that try it.

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Posted by: Illconceived Was Na.9781

Illconceived Was Na.9781

I used to average pretty close to 20% until they changed the chests to the current method. Currently i’m 0 for 10 on scraps since the chests changed.

That’s why I was curious to start this thread. When people say “RNG is RNG” it ignores the fact that RNG is based on coding which may not exclusively be RNG.

People make a big deal over the “fact” that computers only simulate true randomness. But it turns out that players will never be able to measure any difference between RPG/MMO-simulated randomness and true randomness — it would take hundreds of thousands of measurements under near-perfectly controlled circumstances.

Many of us are dedicated to collecting solid data to determine drop rates for things like BL chests, but I’ve yet to see anything that comes within several orders of magnitudes of the amount of data that would be required.

tl;dr for our practical purposes, GW2 RNG is entirely random.

John Smith: “you should kill monsters, because killing monsters is awesome.”

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Posted by: Maddie.5864

Maddie.5864

I opened like… 15-20 Black Lion Chests and I got 8 ticket scraps, 0 tickets and kitten tonnes of buffs and other stuff.

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Posted by: fadeaway.2807

fadeaway.2807

I’ll add my two cents. I am a moron who occasionally will buy black lion keys, so this attracted my like a dog to something foul smelling on the ground. I started with 6 claim scraps already on hand.
First 25 keys, 12 claim scraps, nothing exciting. (total 18)
Decided, what the heck, let’s go again.
Second 25 keys, 3 claim tickets, 18 scraps, plus several 1G+ minis, and some extra keys. Jackpot… (total 6 tickets)
For some reason, which escapes me, I decided to go one more time But this time I would open the chests in my Home instance for luck (adult beverages might have been involved)
25 keys… 8 claim scraps.. not much else.. stupid idea… (6 tickets, 8 scraps)
I ran a new character through the storyline to get a key and then decided to buy 5 keys. I used 6 keys and got 2 scraps. So, a total of 7 Claim tickets after all this.
Since I ended with no spare scraps, I am almost positive I am done for a while…. maybe. Good luck to the rest of you that try it.

That’s almost 7000 gems, current exchange rate means you spent over 650 gold for just 7 claim tickets that sucks.

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Only 6750 gems, or $85, or 880g (I think you used the gem to gold rate there fadeaway). Or they farmed a lot of keys or bought a lot of keys on when they were on sale.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: KerryTT.4792

KerryTT.4792

I did not say it was smart… I just kind of like opening up the chests.

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Posted by: fadeaway.2807

fadeaway.2807

Thanks for the data though I was just trying to decide between buying keys vs turning gems into gold.

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Posted by: Taygus.4571

Taygus.4571

are the double chances finished or finishing sometime today?

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Posted by: Astral Projections.7320

Astral Projections.7320

are the double chances finished or finishing sometime today?

They said, somewhat ambiguously.

“Now through August 11, (snip), until the release on August 12!”

My reading of this is that it’s till the update on August 12th.

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Posted by: Taygus.4571

Taygus.4571

are the double chances finished or finishing sometime today?

They said, somewhat ambiguously.

“Now through August 11, (snip), until the release on August 12!”

My reading of this is that it’s till the update on August 12th.

thanks!

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Opened 10 last night and got 6 scraps. Nothing else really good, no minis, kits, etc.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Figlilly.3907

Figlilly.3907

I opened 25. I got over 10 scraps and a full ticket, one extra key, several leveller tomes, one total makeover kit, other junk. No minis though

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Posted by: Ensign.2189

Ensign.2189

People make a big deal over the “fact” that computers only simulate true randomness.

Well, yes, this is one of those ‘gotchas’ that people can throw out there without really understanding why it matters – your RNG isn’t spitting out true random numbers, it must be responsible for my bad drops! As if the fact that the numbers aren’t truly random means they can conspire against you in any way you can imagine.

We aren’t doing cryptology here people. We don’t actually care all that much about the fine structure of low order terms; to the extent that it matters at all, it would drive actual drop rates closer to their expectations and you’d see less variance than you might expect from true randomness. The horror.

A nice boring LCG is more than sufficient for everything they need from a generator in this game; besides some weirdness that can pop up from multi-threading there are no drawbacks that matter and the speed is exactly what you need.

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Posted by: Romek.4201

Romek.4201

toooo much transmute stones, enchant powder, useless strentgh runspeed armors boosters, single merchant bank NPCs + this double scraps reduce the drop from real nice things – got only like 20 karma booster from 50 keys^^

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

Check out this thread, results from 1000 chests with double chance on claim tickets.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/1000-Black-Lion-Keys

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes

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Posted by: Brother Grimm.5176

Brother Grimm.5176

Was gonna post my outcome but in light of the above guy farming 535 tickets in less than 4 days, I’ll pass (I’ve got 2 tickets in my bank and am humbled).

We go out in the world and take our chances
Fate is just the weight of circumstances
That’s the way that lady luck dances

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Posted by: Behellagh.1468

Behellagh.1468

He got a lot of ticket scraps but only, after conversion, 62 tickets. So with normal rates we are looking at 3 tickets per 100 chests. That’s $35 per ticket or 360g. Considering $35 of gems can be converted to 240g that should show beyond a doubt that purchasing tickets to earn a skin is the most expensive way of getting the skin you want. Not when the most expensive skins are 60-100g per ticket.

We are heroes. This is what we do!

RIP City of Heroes