Like the title says, ANET needs to double the precursor drop rate. Now I can see a few people that spent a fortune with real currency to obtain these, but they are minuscule to the total revenue that ANET could receive if the “base was widened”. Also many of the people that own legendaries did not spend a dime ever in the gemstore. Call them the lucky ones that got a precursor drop early, flipped it, and repurchased when it was lower. Same goes with other market hawks.
So how exactly can ANET make more money and make more players happy?
It’s simple supply and demand really. If precursors would double what would happen? The price for precursors would drop a little less than half. This would in turn put precursors in the viability range for a lot of players to purchase…….well almost. It would spark huge demand for gems to cover the extra 100-200 gold needed to buy the precursors. It would also greatly increase the demand for the other mats needed in creating the actually legendary. The increased demand for those other mats would compensate a bit for doubling the drop rate. It would also force demand on none-legendary materials.
Overall we would see the price come down, but would give a huge perception that legendaries are actually attainable.
If they doubled the drop rate of precursors, more precursors would drop, thus precursor prices would go down, thus players would have no need of converting gems to gold as they could just farm the money to buy a precursor easier (instead of spending 2 months farming CoF, they only need to farm for 3-5 weeks).
Sorry, but your logic isn’t really backed up by any empirical evidence.
Double of 0 is still 0.
It absolutely is. Take a look at http://www.gw2legendary.com/
Also farming CoF everyday is a bit ridiculous.
It is really simple economics, but I did some calculation and it looks like the costs of the Legendary would actually go up by about 600 gold with current drop rates for none-precursor materials. Not really great news if ANET did not also double the drop rate for those mats too.
Anyways go to Microsoft Excel and try adding the prices in yourself.
For example take the current price of Sunrise:
Dawn: 514
Gift of Fortune: 413
Gift of Mastery: 0
Gift of Sunrise: 470
Now what would happen if double the drop rate of Dawn?
Dawn: 257 (Increased Supply)
Gift of Fortune: 826 (Increased Demand)
Gift of Mastery: 0
Gift of Sunrise: 940 (Increased Demand)
It would actually increase the amount of revenue that would be generated by those wishing to get their hands on a precursor, but they would be nickel and dimed unless other drop rates changed.
P.S. I know things don’t simply double, but they would definitely head that direction.
(edited by Goloith.6349)
1/ double drop rate doesn’t always mean half the prices. That’s just not how it works
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
Your… evidence… is so primitive… it hurts. Please, go find behavioral and economic proof before throwing around numbers.
The precursor changes have to happen one way or another!
- If they release the long waited “Precursor Scavenger hunt” then the Precursor drops will get lower.
- If they increase the Precursor drop rate, their prices will get lower!
- To sum up: Any form of increasing the availability of the Precursor will undoubtedly reduce their market value.
The trick is how to increase their availability without decreasing their gem selling revenue?
- One way is to revamp the whole process of crafting a legendary! However, doing this, could be unfair to those who are already doing theirs to those who already got them.
But one thing i agree, relying on precursors to get revenue out of gems is poor economics!
Twice nothing is still nothing – Cyrano Jones, “The Trouble with Tribbles”
I’m talking supply side economics in a very simple form. It’s called widening the base out.
I’m talking supply side economics in a very simple form. It’s called widening the base out.
Goloith.
It’s not the same thing having 10 DUST selling for 500g/each as 100 DUST selling for 50g/each. The first is a big load of gold and “forces” players to spend $$ to get gems to get the required gold. The last, is pretty easy to achieve! 50g are peanuts nowadays…
Well if the supply of the Dawn went up, the demand for the other parts would go up in value. That’s why to widen the base it would still require the other mats to essentially double. People are willing for ANET to take their cash, but it has to be attainable.
We see this all the time in airline industry. They charge cheap tickets, but everything such as luggage is much higher just to incentives demand i.e. profit.
Go into Excel and just try making up some empirical data just to test the idea. Let’s say we split the wealth between 4 quartiles. Lets say that we have 2000 in Q1, 3000 in Q2, 3000 in Q3, and 2000 in Q4. Let’s say that only people in Q4 can actually purchase/craft a Legendary. With a Legendary going for 1600 gold, almost all of Q4 purchases one. That’s $3,200,000.00 worth of gold. Now if they doubled the drop rates for the precursor and materials to the point that all of Q3 could to afford to buy a Legendary, then Q4 & Q3 would have a combined purchase of $4,000,000.00 worth of gold. That’s a 800,000.00 gold difference just because we widened the base. Add in the fact that most people in the Q4 don’t buy gems at all I just see this as a no brainer to double the drop rates for precursor and mats. Now imagine if the income inequality was really skewed towards the wealthy players (which is probably accurate). This would suggest that increasing supply would be even more important.
(edited by Goloith.6349)
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
To be fair, there’s nothing legendary about buying the precursor off the TP or random luck from the MF either.
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
To be fair, there’s nothing legendary about buying the precursor off the TP or random luck from the MF either.
Agreed. It should be a legendary quest.
You guys do know that they ALREADY doubled the precursor drop rate right?
After about 2 months into the game they doubled it from drops.
They are attainable enough. Someone in my guild grinded 7 legendaries in 2000 hours. Just a matter of time management.
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
To be fair, there’s nothing legendary about buying the precursor off the TP or random luck from the MF either.
I thought risking my money in the Mystic Forge and getting a precursor (Dawn) was pretty legendary luck!
Even though I am going for Twilight and therefore need Dusk, I can’t complain :d
You guys do know that they ALREADY doubled the precursor drop rate right?
After about 2 months into the game they doubled it from drops.
Sure they did. Thats why the precursor prices rose up even more, right? lol.
They rose up because ANET made plans to make them better than exotics.
chance of a precursor via drop: 0.001%
Precursor drop rated after doubled: 0.002%
Nice.
chance of a precursor via drop: 0.001%
Precursor drop rated after doubled: 0.002%
Nice.
You missed a few zeroes.
I think one of the arguments being made is that more precursors lead to more legendaries — and more legendaries means more consumption of materials like T6, lodestones, ectos, etc. Therefore the cost of precursors drops, but the cost of materials (and therefore legendaries themselves) increase.
Remember that “precursor” is not the same as “legendary” — and there’s nothing legendary about getting your precursor via RNG. Anyone who says otherwise is just fluffing themselves to feel skilled about a rather unskilled event.
You guys do know that they ALREADY doubled the precursor drop rate right?
After about 2 months into the game they doubled it from drops.
Sure they did. Thats why the precursor prices rose up even more, right? lol.
That is called inflation.
T6 mats used to cost just a few copper, thus very cheap rares, thus very cheap precursors, plus the godskull exploit that added hundreds of precursors to the market keeping prices artificially low.
1/ double drop rate doesn’t always mean half the prices. That’s just not how it works
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
1)duobleing the drop rate will get the price to fall as there gets more of the item but the amount it will fall i cant say.
2) how can you make something as easy as a legendarie easyer to obtain?? all you can do is make the time frame for getting it shorter but not easyer
1/ double drop rate doesn’t always mean half the prices. That’s just not how it works
2/ you’re trying to make legendaries easy to obtain … where’s the legendary then?
1)duobleing the drop rate will get the price to fall as there gets more of the item but the amount it will fall i cant say.
2) how can you make something as easy as a legendarie easyer to obtain?? all you can do is make the time frame for getting it shorter but not easyer
the double of 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000001
is 0.00000000000000000000000000000000000002
really you think prices will drop?
bu-bu-bu statistics!!1111 it’s still double1!1!1
I think that if you threw in nothing but Exotics, your rates are double over using just Rares? I’m only speculating of course.
Double the precursor drop rate – watch everyone who owns a precursor/legendary flip out at Anet/quit. Sounds like a good plan.
I wouldn’t mind.
Maybe I’m just a little bias since I just bought my precursor, but I would most likely quit the game (for at least a few months) if they make it so precursor ever have a reason to drop to like 50-100g price tag, seeing as how I paid 4-5 times that amount for mine.
It’s not only that, but with a ton of other great looking MMOs coming out soon-ish like Wildstar, FFXIV, etc., I would definitely be inclined to just pick up one of those games instead of continuing to put hours of my daily time into getting items that could lose a large chunk of their value overnight because they are hard to obtain, and people don’t want to work for them.
I still wouldn’t mind.
I think that if you threw in nothing but Exotics, your rates are double over using just Rares? I’m only speculating of course.
You have a 5x higher chance of getting a precursor using only exotics than rares, but that’s because you have a 1/5 chance of GETTING an exotic using rares versus a 5/5 chance of getting an exotic using exotics.
“Simple” economics are usually flawed. Thanks Goloith for demonstrating the correct logic.
ArenaNET doesn’t HAVE TO or NEED TO do anything.
You, on other hand, NEED TO stop complaining and start planning if you want a legendary.
Otherwise, please save some hot air and visit another MMO where you’ll get all the petting you desire.
“Simple” economics are usually flawed. Thanks Goloith for demonstrating the correct logic.
ArenaNET doesn’t HAVE TO or NEED TO do anything.
You, on other hand, NEED TO stop complaining and start planning if you want a legendary.
Otherwise, please save some hot air and visit another MMO where you’ll get all the petting you desire.
Calm down, child. The acquisition of precursors is clearly flawed.
Supply of Precursors is not the only gate to a Legendary and in fact is one of the easiest to overcome. Doubling their drop rate would only affect one aspect and thus would have a relatively insignificant impact overall as the other factors would remain unchanged.
I’m not talking about making Legendaries common, I’m talking about making them more accessible. The way to do this is to allow the precursor to drop twice as much. One of the flawed problems with the precursor is that it is still unbelievably hard to obtain. Many people just need to get their hands on one before they even dare start to grind/planning around a legendary. This game is growing very stale and one of the best ways to motivate them is giving them a hope of getting a precursor. I used the word hope because the ability of getting one is pretty much out of reach. Unless you’re lucky and/or rich or play the market soundly you have no hope of ever getting a legendary.
I feel like most precursors are acquired from the forge, not finding from mobs.
so doubling the drop rate would have a minimal impact on the supply at the TP.
and even if the TP supply goes up 30%, that only goes from 10 to 13 supply, which is not going to drop the price very much (maybe 10g per undercut? so the price would go from 600g to 570g)
if you want to significantly decrease the precursor prices, you need to increase the drop rate of all exotics. with more exotics people have and don’t use, that’s more that are cheap enough to throw in the forge, and more precursors are made.
Increasing supply to lower the price ignores half of the supply/demand equation. What happens when the increased supply creates more demand?
Why go to all the trouble? Just double the drop of gold. Double the NPC prices, double everything. Then everyone will buy twice as much everything. And be happy. How happy? Double happy.
Get Jay Wilson to do it.
Increasing supply to lower the price ignores half of the supply/demand equation. What happens when the increased supply creates more demand?
This is very astute. All evidence we have shows that doubling the precursor drop rate would actually increase the price, not decrease it. The shape of the curve looks something like this (obviously ignoring any actual numbers on the graph).
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28x+%2B+2x%5E2+%2B+x%5E3%2Bx%5E4+%2B+x%5E5%29+*-1
Youre still not helping, john.
I like that once and a every while we get a dev response on this but I hope they read this. make precursors non tradeable just like legendaries and make a clear path to get them that way it would be more legendary and less like a joke. its seriously the only part of this economy that doesn’t make sense. its suppose to be an achievement and people just buy it or randomly get it like the lottery which isn’t legendary. the complaints are that they cost so much and are so rare. supply and demand is broken cause they are rare but for the wrong reasons. you shouldn’t be able to trade them in the first place. that defeats the purpose of earning it except if you consider you buy gems and convert them to gold which is probably what Anet wants. This economy shouldn’t have to stay afloat on legendaries.
Increasing supply to lower the price ignores half of the supply/demand equation. What happens when the increased supply creates more demand?
This is very astute. All evidence we have shows that doubling the precursor drop rate would actually increase the price, not decrease it. The shape of the curve looks something like this (obviously ignoring any actual numbers on the graph).
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28x+%2B+2x%5E2+%2B+x%5E3%2Bx%5E4+%2B+x%5E5%29+*-1
The near 0 graph? The long range graph? Both? What are the axes you are using? Supply vs Demand? Demand vs Supply? No offense but that wasn’t a very helpful graph =p
A lot of people are not bothering with legendaries due to the non-clear path to get them. (precursor was rng only) With the hardest part the precursor being craftable this will drive up demand as they are more obtainable.
Supply and demand dictates that if supply is too low people just don’t bother. Because the costs are too high. In this case the indirect cost of RNG is too high. Lowering the indirect cost can raise the direct cost due to demand increases.
lol… people does not study economics… Increase supply does not necessary affect demand, unless you talking about less prestige (that would actually lower demand)
Increase supply has an effect on price, lower prices. However, lower prices meet higher level demand due to affordability. You will not see people trying to outbid each other for more available products.
Anyway… this thread is just…. LOL
Btw John, this is a supply curve shock, and not a price shock. It is a movement of the whole supply curve and not movement on the curve. That graphs don’t apply.
Tsk tsk, John, first thing you do when you present plots is to label the axis. What a rookie mistake.
ITT People with no degree in economics calling a person with a degree in economics wrong.
lol… people does not study economics… Increase supply does not necessary affect demand, unless you talking about less prestige (that would actually lower demand)
Increase supply has an effect on price, lower prices. However, lower prices meet higher level demand due to affordability. You will not see people trying to outbid each other for more available products.
Anyway… this thread is just…. LOL
Btw John, this is a supply curve shock, and not a price shock. It is a movement of the whole supply curve and not movement on the curve. That graphs don’t apply.
1. It would be a shift, not a shock.
2. Shifts in supply always affect demand, just the degree with the change is relative to the individual market and the current state of the market. This is even more emphasized in a virtual economy.
3. The graph applies perfectly, though I do apologize for the confusing appearance, I just wanted to get up an idea of the shape quick and dirty.
4. “You will not see people trying to outbid each other for more available products.” this statement in not true at this point in the market, which is the point I was trying to make.
Increasing supply to lower the price ignores half of the supply/demand equation. What happens when the increased supply creates more demand?
This is very astute. All evidence we have shows that doubling the precursor drop rate would actually increase the price, not decrease it. The shape of the curve looks something like this (obviously ignoring any actual numbers on the graph).
http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=%28x+%2B+2x%5E2+%2B+x%5E3%2Bx%5E4+%2B+x%5E5%29+*-1
This is a MMO with heavy emphasis on cosmetics. You can safely assume demand to be infinite.
This is a MMO with heavy emphasis on cosmetics. You can safely assume demand to be infinite.
I don’t think you understand what “demand” means as an economic term.
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