Guild Wars 2

Hey, im just wondering what caused these dyes to skyrocket. Unidentified dyes were around 2-3s after the accidental drop rates and now theyre like 6s each!

Same goes for celestial dye. I bought it at a time when it only costed 2g 50s and now its worth around 4-5g on the TP

Does anyone know what caused these prices to rise so much?

1. Massive bot banning that reduced the amount of people posting on the TP
2. Drop rate was nerfed.

Why would they nerf drop rates

I think what they said was there was a mistake on the drop rate and they returned it to normal.

from what it looks like anet created their own pump and dump. :p
sadly we don’t know how much of a change in drop rate it was.

It seems the drop rate was increased (Got about 10 in 2 hours) on “accident,” then reduced it to “normal” which is maybe 1 a day. The normal used to be 2 -3 a day but now they are extremely rare…

Nova.2897:

Why would they nerf drop rates

IMO, to steer people towards the gem store and gem paks.

My conspiracy theory is that they originally intended to stealth nerf the drop rates to reduce supply, drive up prices, and make the gem store dye paks more attractive (since they are a very bad buy when dyes are common and cheap as they have been since release).

But they pooched it and bumped the rate up instead (or maybe on purpose to weakly justify the radical change in the other direction to “correct” it).

Either way, the rate has now been dropped harshly, lamely, and un-fun-ly into oblivion such that dyes seem to drop very rarely now, prices have skyrocketed, and unidentified dyes have fallen off of the “most traded” spot on the TP summary page that they’ve held since release (with the only time previously that they fell off was during halloween when event crap took their place for a while).

There are definitely fewer bots around (thanks ANet for that, for sure) and you can see that reflected in the market with the prices of T5 and T6 crafting rares soaring, but I kind of doubt bots had as much influence on dyes. Bots were specifically targeting mobs that yield crafting drops (like anything in frostgorge/orr), but dye drops are more random (or were til they dried up entirely).

As someone who plays the game daily on several different characters, I’m seeing a dye drop every few days where I used to get a few dyes per day and if I was really cranking the killing I’d get a several dyes in a session easily.

I think I have all dyes unlocked on my ele and all of my alts have lots of dyes, but I still used to enjoy buying a bunch of dyes to see what I might get. Not doing that anymore when the prices have more than doubled. And sure as hell not buying dye paks in gem store no matter how much ANet screws over dye drops. To me it’s just an example of fun being taken out of the game.

On one hand I applaud ANet for how well they are able to control the economy in GW2, but at the same time, it’s kind of lame because this game has the worst economy of any MMO I’ve ever played. Most MMOs suffer from non stop inflation which usually isn’t a real problem since things are relative and new players can hop in easily but this game suffers from the fact that almost nothing has value or is worth selling and things that do have value aren’t earned or produced, they are gained randomly thru MF, which is lame. Ultimately, the market in GW2 is boring and not fun at all.

Good, now the rare dyes will actually be rare. This game was turning back into GW1 where every person had black dyed armor (the most expensive in GW1, for those that don’t know).

Supply is lower because of the bot banning, demand stayed the same. Prices go up.

That’s not skyrocketing, that’s a perfectly normal market adjustment over time as rarity increased but demand remained the same. Look at the lines here: http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323 there’s nothing dramatic about that.

However, it does bring up a related point, there are some dyes that have been inexplicably skyrocketing recently. Here’s just a few examples:
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20605
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20581
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20499
This has been happening with many dyes over the last week or so. The only thing that could cause this is someone intentionally buying up a ton of instant buyout dyes all at once and forcing the price up to a higher level. And then if you look at one this happened a few days ago on, http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20610 you see that shortly afterwards there is a mass sell off of dyes that quickly forces the price back down.

The first time I saw it, I just thought someone with more gold than sense was trying to ‘play the market’ without comprehending what the phrase means. But now I see it happen to five or so different dyes every day. It’s really confusing. You’re talking about massive amounts of gold being wasted to drive the price up, then even more gold being wasted in listing fees and taxes selling everything off (at a loss). Is this some kind of broken trading bot program? A bizarre attempt at virtual money laundering? A rogue AI with nothing to lose? What?

Voqar.2349:

I think I have all dyes unlocked on my ele

there’s over 400 of them! :O

Pump and dumpppppppp.

Vinny.6924:

Pump and dumpppppppp.

A single forum post is going to affect the prices of a single item that is in abundance and high demand. People ought to stop marking every post as a “pump and dump” just because it happens once in a while.

Pretty annoyed myself, sold a black dye that would have got me 1.5G more a couple of days later.

BiteMyShinyMetalAss.3948:

Vinny.6924:

Pump and dumpppppppp.

A single forum post is going to affect the prices of a single item that is in abundance and high demand. People ought to stop marking every post as a “pump and dump” just because it happens once in a while.

In abundance and high demand. Will then sir the price shouldn’t be changing at all! People ought to start thinking before they post.

Vinny.6924:

BiteMyShinyMetalAss.3948:

Vinny.6924:

Pump and dumpppppppp.

A single forum post is going to affect the prices of a single item that is in abundance and high demand. People ought to stop marking every post as a “pump and dump” just because it happens once in a while.

In abundance and high demand. Will then sir the price shouldn’t be changing at all! People ought to start thinking before they post.

No longer in abundance with high demand thus the price should and has changed. Yeah. People ought to start thinking before they post.

It seems to me like when they “fixed” the drop rate on it after the bug causing it to drop too much…they goofed up and now it’s rarer than it should be?

I’ve only gotten a few since they did their fix, they seem REALLY rare now. Severe price increase seems to back this up (Before the bug causing them to drop too much, they tended to run 3-4s).

I agree with Minion of Vey. I know it’s all chance etc. but I used to get more dyes before the accidental buff and subsequent nerf.

Or maybe they were intentionally increased so we wouldn’t get mad when they nerfed them bad.

High dye prices on the TP make gem store dyes seem more reasonable.

Price definitely is up from where it was before the drop rate increased. I was getting unidentified dyes at a fairly stable price in the 3s50c region before the, ah, unintended over-supply. Prices dropped to 2 silver something due to increased supply, but is now up over 8 silver.

3 possible explanations (excluding conspiracies theories):

1) The ‘fix’ to drop rates over-corrected and dyes are scarcer than they used to be. Not convinced, as I’m still getting them reasomnably often as drops on my alts ( top level characters never do seem to get as many dyes).
2) There’s a market bubble caused by speculation – lots of people bought dyes to hoard knowing the fix was coming, but as that has driven up prices more people have bought dyes to get in on the ever-increasing prices. 8 silver might seem like a high price now, but if prices keep going to 10 silver or higher it’s a shrewd investment. Bubbles burst – at which point anyone who bought late or didn’t sell early enough will ose money.
3) The period of cheap dyes stimulated demand – more people got into buying and trying out dyes, and they’re still doing it (albeit grumbling about the higher prices). In that case the permanently higher demand will result in a stable higher price for the given supply.

Which is true? I don’t know, although ArenaNet may have data to make a more educated guess. My gut feel says ‘bubble’ though, so I’m putting my dye habit on hold ffr a couple of weeks to see what happens.

Before the accidental increase, cheap dyes started out at 25 copper. During the increase drop rate error, they dropped to 9-10 copper starting price. Now the starting price is 65 copper and still rising.

So, was the intended “fix” for the increase in drop rate actually to decrease it far beyond what it was to begin with? Is this working as intended? The plan was to make dye drop rates lower than what it was before the increase? The rates are steadily climbing, and I am going to assume they will continue to climb, so it hasn’t even leveled off yet. I get that there was an accident in increasing the drop rate, but why has the fix resulted in such a drastic decrease compared to the original drop rate?

I’d just like to hear someone say “Yes, we decided to do this, we want dyes to be much more expansive/hard to find than they were.”

Voqar.2349:

Nova.2897:

Why would they nerf drop rates

IMO, to steer people towards the gem store and gem paks.

My conspiracy theory is that-

Stop. Stop now. We have enough conspiracy theorists on the forums without you creating some out of nothing.

The drop rate was accidentally increased by far too much, then they fixed it and reduced it back. If the drop rate is lower now, it’s probably to help stabilize the market temporarily because of the sudden rush of new dyes, so by lowering the drop rate even further for a temporary time they can help prevent the market from changing too much.

the high drop rate was only for a couple of days, the reduced rate has been for two weeks… abyss is 12g, celestial is 6+g, unids are 9+s….

For me the drop rate has absolutely plummeted. I’ve found just three unidentified dyes in the last week. I was getting that many in an hour before. On the other hand, one of those three was a Midnight Ice, first really nice dye I’ve found since launch!

I just hit lvl 49 on a war I created about a week ago, I have done all the low level zones 1- 15, 15 -25 and a couple of 25 -35 zones. I have had 4 unidentified dyes in all that time, approx 60 hrs. The drop rate has definitely been tampered with.

Oh yes. Dye droprates were decent earlier, then came the bug that made them drop really often.. so they hotfixed it.. to a point where they drop less than before the bug.

TLDR
Dyes and black lion kits should have been the sale items this weekend. Anet crocks it up again, starting to see this as a pattern.
Retail stores that sell real things that actually cost money to produce sell things as door busters that people actually want. Anet, listen to your fans, this dye drop nerf and black lion Friday sales are bad. This is coming from the people who play this game everyday. perhaps you should hold a contest or vote next year to pick the sale items, because I think most people got very little use out of this sale, unless you wanted to sell your overinflated gems back for some gold.
more money to put toward other sales.

I haven’t noticed any dye drop “nerf”. I noticed it went up for a bit, but then they fixed it and put it back to normal. I’m still getting the same average rate of dye drops as I ever did before the drop went up.

I’ll tell you what I am seeing. I’m seeing the number of conspiracy theories go up as people feed off of one another’s BQ (*itch Quotient). I’m really glad the in game community isn’t as kitten bitter as the some of the forums are getting.

RNG. Learn it, love it.

A few days ago I found four unidentified dyes in an hour, and I’ve been averaging one dye drop every 1.5 days. It’s not unbalanced. Some days I get a ton, some days I get none, but when I get dyes from harvesting carrots and get daily achievements from falling on top of bunnies then there really is no reason for people to complain about such things.

Yesterday I noticed that unidentified dyes were approaching the 10s mark, today I sold some for 12s gross.
If you look on the TP then you will see that only very few dyes are actually worth more than that, mostly black, white, red and blue in their rare variants.
I’m honestly wondering just who buys the unidentified dyes at these prices.
I kinda miss opening them myself, though. There’s always that excitement of unwrapping a present but right now it’s just uneconomical. After all, if you can’t run the lottery the second best thing is to supply it.

Anthile.8493:

Yesterday I noticed that unidentified dyes were approaching the 10s mark, today I sold some for 12s gross.
If you look on the TP then you will see that only very few dyes are actually worth more than that, mostly black, white, red and blue in their rare variants.
I’m honestly wondering just who buys the unidentified dyes at these prices.
I kinda miss opening them myself, though. There’s always that excitement of unwrapping a present but right now it’s just uneconomical. After all, if you can’t run the lottery the second best thing is to supply it.

Yup, makes no sense to buy unidentified dye for 12s when you can buy a trash yellow dye for same price. Never opened an unidentified dye myself… too much chance it turns into a worthless blue.

250 Unidentified Dyes are needed for the Gift of Colour, which is necessary for crafting the Legendary Bifrost. That’s why people are buying them.

Zaxares.5419:

250 Unidentified Dyes are needed for the Gift of Colour, which is necessary for crafting the Legendary Bifrost. That’s why people are buying them.

I guess that makes some sense, though I’m a little surprised the demand is as high as it seems to be if that’s the driver.

Apparently the three most popular Legendaries are Twilight, Sunrise and Bifrost, if their Precursor prices are anything to go by. If Bifrost is high enough in demand, it might explain why they’re so expensive.

Of course, that doesn’t rule out speculators and people investing in unid’ed dyes either.

Not too sure How Uinds work for precursor to legendaries. I do know it is possible to craft dyes with cooking, but I think that is only for use and has nothing to do with legendaries. Or i could be wrong. If the unids that are crafted cannot be used as precursors for legendaries are also climbing in price, then it’s not because of demand for precursors. If they aren’t then it’s because of the higher demand for pre-cursors. It does make a reasonable amount of sense that as more and more players hit the level cap, they will start buying more pre-cursors for legendaries, hence the price going up.

Personally I always thought the drop rate seemed a bit high. I remember in gw1, Black dyes were really rare, sold fast, and sold dear. Here it was rarer than most others, but not that hard to get.

Black dye, was One of those items the economy ran on, that and ectos.

Me I rather that somethings were rarer, and had some value, since it seems 95 % of stuff has little value. Then again, I don’t monitor stuff on the tp, and am only going by what I observe.

All I know is I get like 1/4 as many dyes as I was getting before the buff and nerf to dye drops. It’s been consistent enough now that I think I’m past the “RNG is random” business. It’s a massively noticeable difference and has been consistent for weeks now.

Think one problem is the game was way too accessible to many items. Like dyes I have like 250 collected+ in 2 days.