Guild Wars 2

Prices are definitely down. I’ve seen them around 21s, but they were predicted to be down to like 5. What do you economists make of this? It seems to me that they are going to steadily go up, probably after a few months once the influx begins to dwindle. Invest a chunk of gold and pick some up now? Now that they are 1 for 5 laurels, it’s definitely no longer attractive to use laurels to get dyes so it seems like demand will begin to increase. I’m not getting my hopes up, but some people were talking on my server chat about them reaching close to a gold each some time down the line.

It’s just gonna keep going down

Real supply of unid dyes is going to drop considerably. But will the demand for unid dyes ever become so large that it overcomes the effects of supply? That’s the big question for unids going forward.

The price of dyes in the future IMO will largely be driven by the demand side.

It will probably hit equilibrium soon. Yes the supply is down, but with unlocks being account wide so is the demand.

At least that’s my W.A.G.

It is still far too early for dye prices to come back up. This is only what? The first weekend after the patch?

Also note that it now takes 5 laurels for 1 unidentified dye and dyes don’t drops from loot anymore. I guess it will go up after a month or two for this new reality to sink in after this initial influx of unidentified dye caused by the patch.

I tend to think that, for a long time, the price of unid dye will only be driven by speculators. There are plenty enough identied dyes and unidentified dyes for Bifrost for everyone for a very, very long time, but a lot of players/speculators have now hundrers or thousands of unidentified dyes in their bank, expecting to make huge profits.

Dyes will probably rise slowly over time. With laurels nerfed and drops removed the only way to get them is to craft them with cooking which is expensive.

The supply will slowly dry up, but only very slowly, since people are hoarding them and waiting for the price to rise. We will see the price stay relatively stable with a slight increase over the next 4-6 months but then the patch day supply will dry up and the price will start rising faster. I would say within a year they will rise up to over 80s.

However that assumes the devs don’t do anything crazy with them between now and then which is highly unlikely since they love screwing with the markets to sell more gems.

I bought around 400 dyes before patch for 35s per dye and sold them at patch day for 47s each. Made a little profit. I was glad I sold them all and early because now the price went down really bad.

I believe they will rise. It may be longer than people are willing to wait though. There are a lot of people holding them in hopes of a profit in a a few months. I am thinking we will see another dump when people need their gold back from the dyes they invested in or they simply grow impatient. I also think that there is a chance that if (hopefully when) new legendaries are in game that they could very well use the gifts that are already available. There is a high chance, in my mind, that there could be a new legendary that will require gift of color. That is when there will be a very large profit. Who knows how long away that is though.

Lots of people that dont know the market have held on to their UIDs or bought some in the aftermath of the patch, so there is a huge supply left thats not on the tp.
Prices will slowly go down, triggering small time traders to eventually sell their stock to cut their losses because they dont have the patience of good traders. That happens most of the time, when they need some gold for the next thing that everybody wants comes out. Once the majority of the supply is in the hands of a smaller group of big traders, demand will eventually outpace supply on the tp and prices will rise.
By the time that happens, you will most propably munch Halloween or Christmas candy.

Wanze.8410:

Lots of people that dont know the market have held on to their UIDs or bought some in the aftermath of the patch, so there is a huge supply left thats not on the tp.

Some of my guild members also received thousands of unid dyes the day of the patch. Biggest return I heard about was roughly 3k dyes.

Many people is just hoarding. So price didnt’ drop too much.

I flipped some rare and uncommon dyes in the last couple of days and it was actually quite profitable because the market was moving so fast. Even though it still has a downward trend, there is enough people that sell to the highest bidder now and enough people buying straight because they dont want to wait for the dyes to lose another 5% to save some silver. So its a good market to flip atm but if you intend to buy dyes as long term investments, i would recommend to wait a little because prices are still dropping.

The only reason why it hasn’t sunk to an all time low is because of speculators and investors. No more drops, increased laurel price to get them. It doesn’t take a fool to figure out that it’s only a matter of time….

I’m slowly dumping my stock, good luck to all who are holding onto them

Yeah, I’m holding onto mine for now. If the worst comes to pass and prices never recover, I’ll just open all of them and try my luck. (I used to open all of mine even when they were 30s each, and I’ve never regretted it. )

OP, there were lots of predictions out there. The price crashed more than some predicted and less than others. I was thinking mid thirties which is why I was selling at 50s but not any lower. As it turned out the price dropped below 40 even before the patch, so I was clearly conservative in my guess. But hey, at least I wasn’t one of the guys who thought it was a good idea to buy at 70 silver.

The cost of making one with the new recipe is close to a gold at the moment, but for current stocks to dry up there need to be hundreds, possibly thousands, of Bifrosts made which is why people are talking about six months.

Looking at a TP website there are 70,600 Unidentified Dyes currently on the market and the sell price is 23s50c. How many thousands of Unidentified Dyes are currently sitting in the banks of speculators? And how many more are in the banks of average players like myself?

Let’s talk demand. Most players had at least one character with their favorite dyes unlocked already – i.e. Abyss, White, or Celestial – and many other random colors that they had picked up either because they were cheap or from opening unidentified dyes. Those players might have still needed dyes for alts, or when they decide to roll another new alt, because let’s face it, everyone wanted better color choices than the defaults.

Now, most people never need to buy another dye ever again.

Yeah, it looks like they won’t be back up to 50s anytime. At least some of the top rares are still selling for good gold, so I have 400 maybe I’ll start opening after awhile here.

Plenty of people want dyes but don’t have the will or coin to buy it now (while they should). Supply will simply dry up over time. People are forging dyes (for profit) which slowly but surely will help to evaporate the overall supply. If the price of rare dyes goes up, so will the price of masterwork dyes (forging masterwork dyes—> rare). Which drives up the price of common dyes (forging common dyes —> masterwork). Prices will eventually stabilize at the price it takes to craft them through cooking (which means 10-20 silver for a common dye) or the gemstore dye packs.

I think the real profit – on a short term – is in identified dyes, not unidentified dyes. Once rare dyes reach their intended astronomical levels, people will start buying unidentified dyes for profit, drying up that supply. I’d say that should start happening in about 4 months from now.

Zaxares.5419:

Yeah, I’m holding onto mine for now. If the worst comes to pass and prices never recover, I’ll just open all of them and try my luck. (I used to open all of mine even when they were 30s each, and I’ve never regretted it. )

Beware of the tedium of opening them. It is very time consuming to list every one that you open.

I had around 1000 unidentified dyes after the patch (due to dupes on my alts). Since the price was so low (20 silver) I started opening some of them instead to see if could score any new unlocks. After only a minute my inventory full of common dyes I already had (going at less than 1 silver each) and only a couple of uncommon ones worth 0.5-1 gold each and of course no unlocks. I really could not be bothered wasting my time to list every opened dye for copper. Instead I just tossed out the cheap ones, listed the uncommon ones and just sold the remainder of 900+ unidentified at 20 silver each and called it a day.

I think there too many hoarders for unidentified dyes, partly due to blogs like this one:

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2014/04/fools-selling-unidentified-dyes.html#.U1k3cPldV8F

So the more impatient hoarders would be dumping them, bringing their prices down over time. It should recover after a long period of time but we’ll see.

DarkSpirit.7046:

I think there too many hoarders for unidentified dyes, partly due to blogs like this one:

http://www.guildwars2tradingpost.com/2014/04/fools-selling-unidentified-dyes.html#.U1k3cPldV8F

So the more impatient hoarders would be dumping them, bringing their prices down over time. It should recover after a long period of time but we’ll see.

Yeah, I think it will take a long time for the excess supply to be worked off. I think people speculating didn’t think though why the price of unid dyes settled where it did pre-patch, or how the glut of unid dyes would look after the feature patch.

I imagine it’s likely to take 6-12m; it could be longer, but I doubt it will be shorter — there’s just not enough need for dyes. OTOH, the fact that dyes are account-bound makes the gem-store versions much more reasonable.

(Unid dyes haven’t gone low enough for me to buy more, and probably won’t … but ID’ed dyes did, and I expect that unidentified dyes won’t go up in price until ID’ed dyes do, so this speculation is similar but just requires more inventory space. I have lots of that…)

I think a big reason dye prices haven’t plummeted to nothing is because people are buying them to save for when they are really valuable again. Kinda hard for them to get to 5s when people are buying 1000’s at 20s.

Woljnir.7810:

Prices are definitely down. I’ve seen them around 21s, but they were predicted to be down to like 5. What do you economists make of this? It seems to me that they are going to steadily go up, probably after a few months once the influx begins to dwindle. Invest a chunk of gold and pick some up now? Now that they are 1 for 5 laurels, it’s definitely no longer attractive to use laurels to get dyes so it seems like demand will begin to increase. I’m not getting my hopes up, but some people were talking on my server chat about them reaching close to a gold each some time down the line.

I dare you to show me a dye that is worth more than at any other point in the last 3 months. It doesnt matter if its identified or UIDs, common, uncommon or rare, most of them took a 50-300% dip in value and prices are still falling, this means we havent even found equilibrium yet, which is way lower in value than now. The amount of UIDs and identified in peoples storage compared to the stock on the tp is ridiculous right now and nearly every UID that is being bought atm is definately not bought to be identified right now but by speculators (flipping isnt even worth it), maybe a little percentage is being bought with the intend to craft the gift of color but that amount is negligable.

Of course my assumption can be wrong but if you yourself, you know someone who has or you even heard rumors about someone that is buying UIDs in order to identify them for profit, please speak up.
Of course there might be someone who identified a couple of UIDs and got a celestial/abyss and made a profit but thats just down to rng luck. I did my calculations a couple of days ago (when average prices for identified dyes where still higher) and even at that point, the average value you would get by selling the identified dyes was 10s, considering average rng.

This is a actually a good example, how tp speculators stabilize a market, and it doesnt matter, if its a tp shark like me or an ordinary player. I know many players are holding to their UIDs or even invest in them right now because they think, they will rise at some point and they can sell them 100-200% profit. So there is basically no real demand (meaning nearly all UIDs being bought atm are not intended to be used but sold in the future) for UIDs, its what i call artifical demand. Without that artifical demand of speculators, the price of UIDs would already been at 10s or less because there is no real demand to use them right now. You would spend only half as much gold to buy your missing dyes directly compared to buying UIDs, identifing them, consuming the ones you dont have unlocked and selling the rest.

Wanze.8410:

I dare you to show me a dye that is worth more than at any other point in the last 3 months.

not great examples, but much closer than your were likely expecting:
Limonite Dye
Vincent Dye
^_^
you are right about almost all dyes out there, but there are a few that aren’t included

Why did people like Unidentified Dyes prior to the patch?

It was a chance at getting an expensive dye, like Abyss, and turning a small find of 25s into a big find of 25g.

-AND-

If it turned out that you didn’t get what you were hoping for, you didn’t feel bad because the chances were at least one of your characters didn’t already have that particular color unlocked.

It was the backup, “oh well, I didn’t have that one anyway” mentality that made a lot of people feel alright with gambling a sure-fire 25s.

Now, that backup is gone. Yes, people can still roll the dice with Unidentified Dyes, but now they have to make the conscious decision to spend gold they already have on Unidentified Dyes specifically to gamble. Otherwise they can just purchase the color dye that they want (most people have most of the colors they want now)

I think speculators who dumped thousands of gold into Unidentified Dyes thinking that the drop in demand would be overshadowed by the drop in supply are in for a hard landing.

Mystic.5934:

Wanze.8410:

I dare you to show me a dye that is worth more than at any other point in the last 3 months.

not great examples, but much closer than your were likely expecting:
Limonite Dye
Vincent Dye
^_^
you are right about almost all dyes out there, but there are a few that aren’t included

Those are both gem store exclusive dyes, which are not obtainable via UIDs.
As far as I am concerned, accounts, who have unlocked duplicate gem store exclusive dyes like these, will be refunded with the same dye in the first or 2nd week of May.
So we can expect a price drop in those dyes as well.

Dyes will be up by a lot in a few months. For now, simply buy up while they’re cheap and watch the price slowly climb over time.

Stone.6751:

Why did people like Unidentified Dyes prior to the patch?

It was a chance at getting an expensive dye, like Abyss, and turning a small find of 25s into a big find of 25g.

-AND-

If it turned out that you didn’t get what you were hoping for, you didn’t feel bad because the chances were at least one of your characters didn’t already have that particular color unlocked.

It was the backup, “oh well, I didn’t have that one anyway” mentality that made a lot of people feel alright with gambling a sure-fire 25s.

Now, that backup is gone. Yes, people can still roll the dice with Unidentified Dyes, but now they have to make the conscious decision to spend gold they already have on Unidentified Dyes specifically to gamble. Otherwise they can just purchase the color dye that they want (most people have most of the colors they want now)

I think there’s one part of this you’re missing — the value of an Unidentified Dye was, AFAICT, a bit larger than the expected dyes you’d get from it. Even when they spiked to 60s after the announcement — at the same time, you could sell blue dyes for 30s; eventually all the dye prices came down somewhat, and so did Unidentified Dye prices. But I think you could have made profit (on average) opening buying them at the buy price, opening, and selling them around the sell price.

Before the announcement (which made cheap blues more expensive), the price of the cheap blue dyes was, I think, roughly based on the expected value from putting them into the mystic forge for promotion.

Stone.6751:

I think speculators who dumped thousands of gold into Unidentified Dyes thinking that the drop in demand would be overshadowed by the drop in supply are in for a hard landing.

I’ve still got buy orders at 5s and 10s for unid dyes, though I’m not as convinced that those will execute (I think the latter will, and the former won’t). Since supply really has dried up, the only downward pressure will be from people who decide to stop waiting … it’s possible that there will be a hard landing, but I don’t expect prices to crash that much. OTOH, I’m not sure if I’ll still be playing if/when prices hit 1g.

Supply has not dried up, not yet anyway. Look at the current market for Unidentified Dyes – there are 81,200 of them for sale and its climbing. Over the past year, the supply ranged between roughly 9,000 – 50,000. On top of that, we know there are people hording them in their bank – TP players and regular players alike.

Yes at some point in time the supply is going to start drying up and prices will slowly climb, but buyers are going to mostly be investors, people who want to gamble on opening Unidentified Dyes, or people making Bifrost. I think that’s a long way into the future.

My cynical opinion is that the very smart players fooled everyone else and told them to start buying dyes because its going to be such a great investment, meanwhile they are dumping their dyes while the prices were climbing.

People who did that, likely got rich. People who followed like lemmings and bought dyes at inflated prices thinking they would go up even higher after the patch, got suckered.

5 laurels is a lot though. I’m in 2 minds about this. I think it will be insanely easy, in 4 months from now, to manipulate parts of the dye market because of the laurel requirement. Other than that it will cost 3g to 4g to make an unidentied dye yourself. But you’re right we’ll have to burn through millions of unid’s to get there. I myself didn’t buy many of those, but bought 27k common dyes instead. A bit like with gossamer: when everyone said “buy gossamer!” I bought linen, silk, wool and cotton instead.

Stone.6751:

My cynical opinion is that the very smart players fooled everyone else and told them to start buying dyes because its going to be such a great investment, meanwhile they are dumping their dyes while the prices were climbing.

People who did that, likely got rich. People who followed like lemmings and bought dyes at inflated prices thinking they would go up even higher after the patch, got suckered.

Buying a stock (or in this case a commodity, I guess) because a random stranger says it’s a sure thing is one of the best ways to lose money.

Woljnir.7810:

Prices are definitely down. I’ve seen them around 21s, but they were predicted to be down to like 5. What do you economists make of this? It seems to me that they are going to steadily go up, probably after a few months once the influx begins to dwindle. Invest a chunk of gold and pick some up now? Now that they are 1 for 5 laurels, it’s definitely no longer attractive to use laurels to get dyes so it seems like demand will begin to increase. I’m not getting my hopes up, but some people were talking on my server chat about them reaching close to a gold each some time down the line.

The price dropped for 1 major reason. The dye refund. I myself got several stacks back for doubles I had on multiple characters. Just like everyone else I imagine. So of course there has been a large supplie flooding the market

it all depends on how many new players come into the game in the future, if they come in droves the prices will rise, but if it stays the way things are they will go down because everyone who existed before the update knew “ok time to get all my dyes”

Duke Nukem.6783:

it all depends on how many new players come into the game in the future, if they come in droves the prices will rise, but if it stays the way things are they will go down because everyone who existed before the update knew “ok time to get all my dyes”

This is exactly the gamble you make buying dyes right now. I think there is enough turnover in the player base (and enough value in putting cheap dyes in the mystic forge in the hopes of promotion) that I’m willing to sit it out — but I realize the wait might be longer than I play the game. If it holds my interest as long as GW1 did, then I expect to make a profit.

I waffled, I hemmed, I hawed, I bought 2100 of them (280 were credited). I will buy a lot more too. When the lifers in this game realize that is doesn’t matter what “they” need and what the new players need, they will see the potential. 5 laurels for unidentified? That’s nuts, 5 days worth of dailies to get one dye that could be banana? My average cost has dipped to under 19 silver each, my target for selling is 65 silver and even if that takes until August, I have no need for the gold, my mains are fully outfitted and I have 1/2 stacks of every tier 6.

Between my ore, dyes and tier 6, I could liquidate today and never need gems again. Dyes are going to be a gold mine, I was wrong when I predicted otherwise.

Cassocaster.4576:

I waffled, I hemmed, I hawed, I bought 2100 of them (280 were credited). I will buy a lot more too. When the lifers in this game realize that is doesn’t matter what “they” need and what the new players need, they will see the potential. 5 laurels for unidentified? That’s nuts, 5 days worth of dailies to get one dye that could be banana? My average cost has dipped to under 19 silver each, my target for selling is 65 silver and even if that takes until August, I have no need for the gold, my mains are fully outfitted and I have 1/2 stacks of every tier 6.

Between my ore, dyes and tier 6, I could liquidate today and never need gems again. Dyes are going to be a gold mine, I was wrong when I predicted otherwise.

I won’t argue that they will go up, but to more than triple in only three to four months? Even if new players do drive prices up, I think it will be quite common for them to pick and choose what dyes they want. Certainly, some will buy every dye they can get there hands on because they like the freedom to change however and whenever they want, but I spent the vast majority of my guild wars life with only a handful of dyes unlocked. I used previews to see what dyes I wanted before making any purchasing decisions, instead of buying dyes I didn’t need then seeing which worked. It wasn’t until a couple days ago that I decided to complete my common and uncommon sets (minus Gold), since the remaining 250 dyes I needed are all super cheap (minus Gold).

I’m not sure how much I hoarded. Maybe 1250?

It’s not like they dont’ drop any more. I’m pretty sure the black lion chest supplied more than enough of it to whoever that still need it.

I have similar experience in age of conan, I hoarded certain items, and I realize there just isn’t any influx of new players that will eat the supply.

Might be a while till it go up.

laokoko.7403:

It’s not like they dont’ drop any more.

I thought they do not drop any more, am I wrong in that regard? (i.e. laurels or gemstore being the only sources for unidentified dye)

Mastruq.2463:

laokoko.7403:

It’s not like they dont’ drop any more.

I thought they do not drop any more, am I wrong in that regard? (i.e. laurels or gemstore being the only sources for unidentified dye)

pretty sure I got a few from black lion chest recently. Maybe some one can confirm it. I have a short memory.

laokoko.7403:

Mastruq.2463:

laokoko.7403:

It’s not like they dont’ drop any more.

I thought they do not drop any more, am I wrong in that regard? (i.e. laurels or gemstore being the only sources for unidentified dye)

pretty sure I got a few from black lion chest recently. Maybe some one can confirm it. I have a short memory.

Right now are confirmed to be available for laurels, forged from 4 rare crafted UIDs or from BLCs. The gemstore doesnt offer UIDs, just dye packs that give a identified dyes, when you open them.
And Anet never said that they wont give them out in other ways, for example for map completions, achievement chests or meta achievement rewards.

laokoko.7403:

Mastruq.2463:

laokoko.7403:

It’s not like they dont’ drop any more.

I thought they do not drop any more, am I wrong in that regard? (i.e. laurels or gemstore being the only sources for unidentified dye)

pretty sure I got a few from black lion chest recently. Maybe some one can confirm it. I have a short memory.

They still drop from black lion chests. I’ve been doing key runs and got a single yesterday and a double the day before.

Thing is, they used to drop from harvesting, mob drops, champ bags, etc. You restrict the flow below a certain point and demand will very quickly catch up and surpass supply.

Speculation BEFORE the restriction pushed them up to 50+ silver and they were still dropping like mad.

There are several million to burn through, no doubt, but that’s not as many as you think.

EDIT: cheap dyes will also dry up because those that opened all of their unidentifieds and got one or two rares flooded the market with a surplus that was, in essence, useless since they cannot be forged and sell for nearly vendor prices.

i think it was 50 silver because everyone is opening dye and sell it for 15 silver each.

if it went up all power to you. I have a bunch too.

Hey at least it’s not likely it’ll go down. Which is good with investment like this. It might take years for it to recover like a bunch of my investment.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

Down down down go the price of dyes. up up up goes the supply.

I’m pretty sure at this point that dyes will stay below 25s for the next 9 months at least. There are simply too many of them and not enough new players in this stagnant game. Only way I see it changing in any significant way is if an expansion is released that draws back a lot of old players and new players alike.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

Down down down go the price of dyes. up up up goes the supply.

I’m pretty sure at this point that dyes will stay below 25s for the next 9 months at least. There are simply too many of them and not enough new players in this stagnant game. Only way I see it changing in any significant way is if an expansion is released that draws back a lot of old players and new players alike.

This. Dye prices still havent hit the bottom line and will continue to go down in price.
Those who think they make lots of profit anytime soon because they bought some stacks at 20 silver, will wait a long time. I will wait before buying UIDs until they fall under 10s.

Players are still able to receive unidentified dyes for duplicates until May 6th. It stands to reason that there will be no equilibrium until at least after that date when the supply does come to a standstill.

Eventually, when the price is low enough (~8s), it will be worth it to buy and open to try for those expensive rare dyes. The equilibrium price will be around there for awhile until supply is diminished enough for it to gradually start going back up.

I also think that the majority of the supply is being hoarded. With most consumers risk averse, most supply will be unloaded relatively quickly when the price stays relatively low, just to recoup any costs. The rapidness of this will depend on what is available where players need/want gold.

I would say that it won’t take more than two months for most supply to be unloaded or opened. However, it won’t matter because demand will mostly be from speculators and as prices and real demand wane, their demand will as well. Any demand for them for the Gift of Color is probably 100% satisfied. New players will have limited impact on the price since it will be indeterminate how many will even be interested in crafting Bifrost.

The only real increase in demand will be if they introduce a new way to use the Gift of Color. Otherwise, I’m not sure that the price will ever go over the equilibrium set for opening them in hopes of getting a rare dye.

I was hopeful with these and had held on to mine and bought a couple stacks. I was willing to wait months, but then I realized there is no demand outside of speculators for these things. I sold mine and still made a nice profit. It is too risky to invest in imo. We don’t know how they will work as rewards or if they will ever be needed in anything but bifrost. Most people that want dyes will soon learn it is much cheaper to buy the dye you want rather than waste your gold on opening these hoping for a rare. I just knew these would be a gold mine… but I think too many people are banking on that and the price never went down low enough for it to be a safe gamble or for there to be a huge profit like was thought at first.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/20323

Down down down go the price of dyes. up up up goes the supply.

I’m pretty sure at this point that dyes will stay below 25s for the next 9 months at least. There are simply too many of them and not enough new players in this stagnant game. Only way I see it changing in any significant way is if an expansion is released that draws back a lot of old players and new players alike.

You never know what you’ll need for ascended chef….

And, quite honestly, I don’t care if I hold them for 6 months, it’s no sweat and I will continue to buy them so please, by all means, keep selling them.