Guild Wars 2

Just wanted to warm up this old potato again because i predict a mayor supply dump onto TP next week. With the first update after the feature patch, many new items end up in our inventories and most players lack either storage space or need some fast gold for the new shinies or hot markets to trade in. So many casual players and small time traders will opt to sell their UIDS because even after their initial price crash 5 weeks ago, their price has gone down persistently and they dont want to sit on them any longer. After fees and taxes you still get 42.5g for a stack now, which is alot of gold for most players and an easy way to make quick cash.

This will be the first test of patience for everybody who is holding on to them as a long term investment and thats alot of players.

It would be a good thing if they do dump. The price must go down before it can go up significantly. The longer people hold on to their stocks the longer this whole process takes. When the price really tanks people will have a solid incentive to start identifying their dyes.

Yeah I finally dumped all of my unids. Still a good profit, but I should have done it sooner. I’ve invested it all in Orrian Truffles which I expect to double. I just hope it spikes initially rather late than last time

If you don’t know why to invest in Orrian Truffles…;)

Buttercup.5871:

It would be a good thing if they do dump. The price must go down before it can go up significantly. The longer people hold on to their stocks the longer this whole process takes. When the price really tanks people will have a solid incentive to start identifying their dyes.

Yeah, i think its not only the volume available but also the amount of people that are holding on to an item, that determines its rarity.
Usually, the more people are holding on to an item, the higher the velocity, which keeps equilibrium.
Over time, people will sell their stock and big traders with enough patience will buy them up. As soon as only a few people are holding on to the mayority of the supply, prices will actually rise because big traders will hold on to their supply.
But as everybody and his mother are holding on to UIDs atm, i expect prices to keep going down, either slightly and consistantly like over the last 5 weeks or in a hurry and in clusters, like i expect it to be next week.

Vol.7601:

Yeah I finally dumped all of my unids. Still a good profit, but I should have done it sooner. I’ve invested it all in Orrian Truffles which I expect to double. I just hope it spikes initially rather late than last time

If you don’t know why to invest in Orrian Truffles…;)

Feh, I use Mango Pies for that annoying she-skritt!

I expect significant market changes every time a new release is announced and then again right before and right after the update. (The first two were mentioned by Wanze, just above.)

1. Quick cash: causes medium-patient speculators to unload.
2. Space for new stuff: requires medium-hoarders to make room.
3. Returning players: the updates attract so-called boomerangers who haven’t played in a while. They have all sorts of stuff in inventory that they don’t care much about.
4. Hackers/gold sellers: they too are moths-to-the-flame for new updates and they unload everything.

However, in the case of unID dyes, I don’t think we’ll see that much of a dip. People expect a certain level of value from their original investments and often are irrationally unwilling to accept less and a lot of people spent a lot of money buying up dupe colors.

Plus, unID dyes stack compactly for their value: it’s easy to hold on to a few 1,000 vials without using up that much space.

That won’t stop new buyers from opening a lot of dyes, so I expect to see the price of specific colors drop again.

In regards to the original post: dye prices did crash, right after the update. I was able to acquire a lot of fine dyes at below 10 copper, masters below 2s, and even rares for a fraction of their December 2013 values. As explained by others, there was a floor for the UnIDs, so those didn’t go down as quickly as some expected. But people did panic-sell most of the specific colors.

Prices are back up to 2013 values (give or take), so there’s room for them to drop again…and then return to pre-feature patch-announcement rates again.

Illconceived Was Na.9781:

I expect significant market changes every time a new release is announced and then again right before and right after the update. (The first two were mentioned by Wanze, just above.)

1. Quick cash: causes medium-patient speculators to unload.
2. Space for new stuff: requires medium-hoarders to make room.
3. Returning players: the updates attract so-called boomerangers who haven’t played in a while. They have all sorts of stuff in inventory that they don’t care much about.
4. Hackers/gold sellers: they too are moths-to-the-flame for new updates and they unload everything.

However, in the case of unID dyes, I don’t think we’ll see that much of a dip. People expect a certain level of value from their original investments and often are irrationally unwilling to accept less and a lot of people spent a lot of money buying up dupe colors.

Plus, unID dyes stack compactly for their value: it’s easy to hold on to a few 1,000 vials without using up that much space.

That won’t stop new buyers from opening a lot of dyes, so I expect to see the price of specific colors drop again.

In regards to the original post: dye prices did crash, right after the update. I was able to acquire a lot of fine dyes at below 10 copper, masters below 2s, and even rares for a fraction of their December 2013 values. As explained by others, there was a floor for the UnIDs, so those didn’t go down as quickly as some expected. But people did panic-sell most of the specific colors.

Prices are back up to 2013 values (give or take), so there’s room for them to drop again…and then return to pre-feature patch-announcement rates again.

You missed #5: Opportunity cost for holding assets that aren’t moving (Uni Dyes) given all the opportunities the update has provided

I think opportunity costs of hoarding are always present. When they change due a patch/announcement, it’s because people recalculate their needs/risks according to #1 & 2 above.

So, I wouldn’t add #5 to my personal list, but neither would I quibble if you added it to a theoretical wiki article on GW2/MMO market forces. It does emphasize an important idea that many people tend to overlook.

Wanze.8410:

Just wanted to warm up this old potato again because i predict a mayor supply dump onto TP next week. With the first update after the feature patch, many new items end up in our inventories and most players lack either storage space or need some fast gold for the new shinies or hot markets to trade in. So many casual players and small time traders will opt to sell their UIDS because even after their initial price crash 5 weeks ago, their price has gone down persistently and they dont want to sit on them any longer. After fees and taxes you still get 42.5g for a stack now, which is alot of gold for most players and an easy way to make quick cash.

This will be the first test of patience for everybody who is holding on to them as a long term investment and thats alot of players.

And as predicted, UIDs are going down. 1 day after patch, supply on tp rose by 10% and prices went down 10%.

Is it small time speculators offloading because they need some gold this patch or is it related to new bl weapon skins and more blc being opened?

It’s relatively easy to test if there are more BLCs being opened: the price of the Pink Quaggan, Killer Whale, and other back item skins tracks pretty well with the price of BL Keys (whenever there’s a discount on the keys, prices drop substantially).

So, are you better off selling your stock of unid dyes now or hang on to them? Or use them in hopes of getting expensive rare ones?

My vote goes for sell them.

Dondarrion.2748:

So, are you better off selling your stock of unid dyes now or hang on to them? Or use them in hopes of getting expensive rare ones?

I strongly advice against opening them, the average value of dyes you will get in return will be far less than 18s.
If you sell now and use that gold to flip identified dyes, you will make 100% profit way faster than it will take UIDs to bounce back to 30-40s each.

Dondarrion.2748:

So, are you better off selling your stock of unid dyes now or hang on to them? Or use them in hopes of getting expensive rare ones?

I’m not rich, I only managed to buy three stacks of them. I opened two and sent one to my wife. I got some nice uncommon and rare dyes to add to my collection, and made my money back by selling the valuable rares.

Don’t open them.

If you need short term money or if you have the time/energy, sell and use the proceeds to flip identified dyes.

If you don’t need short term money and don’t need the liquidity for other investments, just stuff em in the bank and keep an eye on the price over the next 5-6 months.

I bought a few stacks when they hit rock bottom as a long term hedge because I’m lazy and hate flipping items on the tp. I think prices will eventually rise enough over 6 mos to make a decent return with minimal effort on my part. And there’s always the possibility that demand for dyes could spike if a new, hot recepie is introduced, such as with ascended cooking.

Unidentified dye prices are also not 1g each as predicted and most likely will never be worth more than the 20-25 silver they are now.

Celtic Lady.3729:

Unidentified dye prices are also not 1g each as predicted and most likely will never be worth more than the 20-25 silver they are now.

Most of the people predicting a 1 gold value put the time frame of 6 months up. Others went so far as to predict 1 year. As far as I’m concerned the question is “are drops from black lion chests going to be high enough to satisfy demand?” My guess is not in the long run, but it’s really going to slow down the rate at which the current stockpile is consumed so I’m starting to think maybe a year to reach 50 silver.

There are a lot of UniDye hoarders out there waiting for that mythical 1g price. At some point some may get impatient and start selling a few which will keep the price in check.

I guess it just goes to show you how many dyes were actually out there and the fact that no one really needs them at this point in the games life. I mean the supply has done nothing but increase since it was removed from the loot tables.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

I guess it just goes to show you how many dyes were actually out there and the fact that no one really needs them at this point in the games life. I mean the supply has done nothing but increase since it was removed from the loot tables.

Well, they did hand out millions of unid’d dyes for free to players with duplicate color unlocks. So the supply doubled, tripled, or more overnight. Not sure if the giveaway expires, if not then future returning players could find they have dozens to hundreds of bonus dyes sitting in their bags.

tolunart.2095:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

I guess it just goes to show you how many dyes were actually out there and the fact that no one really needs them at this point in the games life. I mean the supply has done nothing but increase since it was removed from the loot tables.

Well, they did hand out millions of unid’d dyes for free to players with duplicate color unlocks. So the supply doubled, tripled, or more overnight. Not sure if the giveaway expires, if not then future returning players could find they have dozens to hundreds of bonus dyes sitting in their bags.

We also saw a key sale last week and new weapon skins for tickets/scraps, so alot of blc got opened this week, so alot of new supply UIDs came from there.

As we can be fairly certain that key sales and new weapon skins will occur on a regular basis, new UIDs will come along with them.

Wanze was right.

I bought a stack of unidentified dyes thinking that players would continue to gamble box some significant % of the supply away. Unortunately, by making the dyes so rare the casual amble box aspect was removed. Players just aren’t opening them anymore.

I think supply has actually increased: new dyes as a drop from BL chests seem to have increased to fuel Chinese supply, and people just aren’t opening anymore. There’s some profit to be had flipping common dyes since people are no longer opening unidentified dyes, but I’m cutting my losses and running.

Woljnir.7810:

Prices are definitely down. I’ve seen them around 21s, but they were predicted to be down to like 5. What do you economists make of this? It seems to me that they are going to steadily go up, probably after a few months once the influx begins to dwindle. Invest a chunk of gold and pick some up now? Now that they are 1 for 5 laurels, it’s definitely no longer attractive to use laurels to get dyes so it seems like demand will begin to increase. I’m not getting my hopes up, but some people were talking on my server chat about them reaching close to a gold each some time down the line.

The way I see it, look at what you can make of the Dyes; what recipes required Unidentified dyes. Right now there is just Gift of Color and another recipe to make a tonic. you have to consider the vase amounts of players that already owned many of the common dyes. I don’t see anyone opening the dyes since most will just be ones that they’ve already obtained and cant use. it’s very tedious to list each and every single dye on the trade post thereafter. for the moment, precursors are sky-high, so I’m not sure if many people will be investing in legendaries anytime soon.

I took a look at the trade post and there are currently 9 “The Legend” on the trade post. this is effectively 900 dyes that are actually in demands. I’m not saying there are only 9 in the entirety of Tyria, perhaps there are a few 10-20 more out there that people are just holding out, but you get the picture; not much in demands.

Kimehcol.8742:

I took a look at the trade post and there are currently 9 “The Legend” on the trade post. this is effectively 900 dyes that are actually in demands. I’m not saying there are only 9 in the entirety of Tyria, perhaps there are a few 10-20 more out there that people are just holding out, but you get the picture; not much in demands.

Don’t go by a quick peek at the TP. Dusk sells an average of one per hour, and I would imagine TL isn’t far behind. Most sales happen through buy orders, you won’t notice a change in sales listings.

But even if there are 20 Bifrost created every day, it will still take a while to put a dent in the supply of dyes.

if Anet feels like dyes aren’t being removed fast enough there is one simple fix that would destroy the supply overnight.

Just add the gem store dyes from season 1 into the loot tables for normal unid dyes once season 2 starts. It will lower the excess supply of dyes, bring down the sky high price of gem store dyes, and get people to buy BLK’s for more dye chances.