Guild Wars 2

John Smith.4610:

It’s actually very useful, you just need to apply a little work.
Think of what you know. You know that many, many people play the content, which means you know the distribution is dense.
Knowing the general shapes of dense distributions, apply a tail to each side, but I told you I eliminated one tail.
Now you have several possible models of total wealth gain for the content that you can get pretty accurate with only the one number. The individual isn’t important for what you’re attempting to learn, only the aggregate.

log normal distribution or normal distribution can give a significant different result. Furthermore, we do not have standard deviation information as well as total number of active players. (unless I use that Guildwars 2 China launching number)

furthermore, the command to show total gold in the world has also been eliminated/restricted. I cannot tell even with above information, what % increase is the money supply. I assume you have all above information.

John Smith is a Vorlon?

What?

I always thought he was a Jedi (economic) master…

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Behellagh.1468:

I’ve been doing the QP and I don’t see where people are claiming to get all this money from. The big bad simply gives me a boat load of greens that are worth nothing, some gear currency, a tube of karma and that’s it. I’m not seeing the vets around them dropping anything other than some T5/T6 mats whose prices have plummeted. Where’s all the “good” loot people are claiming that they are raking in?

QP<Cursed Shore<Frostgorge<Ember<Gauntlet

QP is the worst of the current “best” farms. In general i’ve found I get the following:

4g/hr<6g/hr<8g/hr<12g/hr<18g/hr

It depends on zerg size, no trolls, and for gauntlet sufficient skill.

But I’m not seeing anything close to 4g/hr. That’s my point, maybe 1g for couple of hours there.

John, I appreciate the economic metaphors but please try and remember not everyone has studied economics and perhaps just once for the benefit of those that haven’t can you quell the mystery wrapped within a riddle smothered in economic jargin and make a point. While you’re at it please remember this, TP is your domain and yes you are the resident economist but that does not mean everyone who comes here to see how the trading post/economy of GW2 works is a student of the craft. So yes the comments may not seem intelligent or well versed but let me say that should i bring you to a forum filled with my friends we could easily talk circles around you when it came to our specialization.

Now to the matter at hand, there has been a tremendous influx of some materials and some money but let me say this, after one full year i can tell you that there are perhaps one of ten people i know that own a legendary. So knock off the world is coming to an end doom because it may serve your purpose as a TP trader. There is nothing wrong with some people finally being able to finish this ridiculous drudgery.

I know what they’re gonna put in for gold sink!!! Its the new ASCENDED! HAHA

Why would you use median when inflation is about mean?

Behellagh.1468:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Behellagh.1468:

I’ve been doing the QP and I don’t see where people are claiming to get all this money from. The big bad simply gives me a boat load of greens that are worth nothing, some gear currency, a tube of karma and that’s it. I’m not seeing the vets around them dropping anything other than some T5/T6 mats whose prices have plummeted. Where’s all the “good” loot people are claiming that they are raking in?

QP<Cursed Shore<Frostgorge<Ember<Gauntlet

QP is the worst of the current “best” farms. In general i’ve found I get the following:

4g/hr<6g/hr<8g/hr<12g/hr<18g/hr

It depends on zerg size, no trolls, and for gauntlet sufficient skill.

But I’m not seeing anything close to 4g/hr. That’s my point, maybe 1g for couple of hours there.

The $ in the QP isn’t from farming the mobs… it’s from doing gambits. If you’re just farming the mobs in QP (post nerf) then your 1g/H makes more sense.

150g per day?

WTF, how do you even do that? It’s not from the TP right?

well, my theory is if people can make 100+ gold per day from cof, they definately can make that in queen’s gauntlet. You are talking about people who play, eat, sleep. It’s possible.

John Smith.4610:

yes

So…. what about the rest of us who:

• don’t exploit
• have bad rng
• don’t farm gauntlet events all day

???

We’re just screwed, is that it? No money for us? No precursors or anything to say ‘thank you for getting pooped on at every turn’?

The hardcore farmers and the hardcore traders will always be the ones that come out ahead, just as they always have been.

Casual players are in a pretty good spot right now though. Gold faucets are everywhere. Doing any dungeon will net you at least 3g. Heck, I’m pretty sure with the way prices on the tp are right now just running around gathering nodes could net you somewhere in the 10g an hour range. If you expect to be rewarded for standing around doing nothing though … well … thats just silly.

Brian.9125:

The hardcore farmers and the hardcore traders will always be the ones that come out ahead, just as they always have been.

Casual players are in a pretty good spot right now though. Gold faucets are everywhere. Doing any dungeon will net you at least 3g. Heck, I’m pretty sure with the way prices on the tp are right now just running around gathering nodes could net you somewhere in the 10g an hour range. If you expect to be rewarded for standing around doing nothing though … well … thats just silly.

I haven’t timed it but I know I can get 1.5-2g for a relatively quick gathering run. I guess if I used multiple characters that can be 10g in an hour. With respawns that might even be sustainable. However making 10g/h through gathering and selling is not the same thing as generating 10g/h from CoF/Gauntlet/whatever. Gathering and selling to get 10g/h just shifts gold around(with some being destroyed in the process through taxes and fees) but generating 10g/h is pulling gold out of thin air.

Brian.9125:

The hardcore farmers and the hardcore traders will always be the ones that come out ahead, just as they always have been.

I don’t think anyone else * not in that particular grouping * has a problem with them coming out ahead. I think the problem is HOW FAR ahead they’re coming out…

See they’re not working 500x harder for it or 10x longer for it either.
Maybe if they were, I think they’d be fully respected, & we wouldn’t see threads taking issue with it nearly as often. ….And no, “working harder” doesn’t mean attacking anyone who threatens your farm either (as has been a disturbing trend lately)

ilr.9675:

Brian.9125:

The hardcore farmers and the hardcore traders will always be the ones that come out ahead, just as they always have been.

I don’t think anyone else * not in that particular grouping * has a problem with them coming out ahead. I think the problem is HOW FAR ahead they’re coming out…

See they’re not working 500x harder for it or 10x longer for it either.
Maybe if they were, I think they’d be fully respected, & we wouldn’t see threads taking issue with it nearly as often. ….And no, “working harder” doesn’t mean attacking anyone who threatens your farm either (as has been a disturbing trend lately)

Well that’s the beauty of an MMO… if you think they have some huge advantage you can do it to. Every has access to the same game and the same methods.

If you want to do something “fun” instead, then your reward is more fun and less gold. The things that are tedious and boring almost always make more gold because people don’t want to do them.

Now ive champ farmed for 5-6 hrs recently a day just to maybe make some money towards the insanely priced precursor i want. I have All other mats other than the precursor for the last 7 months. Im not making a lot of money doing it. in full MF gear. Its almost all greens from the reward boxes. Crap mostly. I left the game for 5 months or so i think. Due to the nerf bat and constant culling issues. The only reason i log in anymore is to farm towards my precursor thanks to the champ farms. So i guess once thats gone ill lose interest again and come back in another 6 months and see if its better.
This will not kill the market. Gold is still hard to make without grinding for hrs a day. I feel like this MMO is the greediest for making players money. 800g for a PC is insane. Especially for a casual player. Just my insignificant opinion.

Death Aggro.9602:

Now ive champ farmed for 5-6 hrs recently a day just to maybe make some money towards the insanely priced precursor i want. I have All other mats other than the precursor for the last 7 months. Im not making a lot of money doing it. in full MF gear. Its almost all greens from the reward boxes. Crap mostly. I left the game for 5 months or so i think. Due to the nerf bat and constant culling issues. The only reason i log in anymore is to farm towards my precursor thanks to the champ farms. So i guess once thats gone ill lose interest again and come back in another 6 months and see if its better.
This will not kill the market. Gold is still hard to make without grinding for hrs a day. I feel like this MMO is the greediest for making players money. 800g for a PC is insane. Especially for a casual player. Just my insignificant opinion.

It’s not the game, the players are the ones charging 800 gold for a precursor. Why? Because there are people out there with 800 gold buying them.

Anet provided the ability to sell precursors like any other exotic. Exotic weapons vendor for something like 4 or 5 silver, that is the minimum price on the TP for a precursor. No one from Anet declared “you can’t charge less than 500 gold for a precursor,” the PLAYERS made that decision because the higher they went, someone else was always willing to pay more.

Would you be happier if you couldn’t sell them on the TP? If the only way to get one was to farm mobs until one dropped, or toss weapons into the MF until you get one? What would happen if you got the “wrong” precursor? How disappointing if you only play warrior/thief and you got a staff or focus precursor? Would you feel like all that time and effort was wasted? Would you wish you could sell it to someone who wanted it and use the money towards your own weapon?

Anet has already responded to this complaint. They have announced months ago that they are working on an alternate path to obtaining a precursor. They aren’t going to rush the process just because you’re on the forums throwing kittens at them.

And this doesn’t even address the other problem I see: Why are you putting so much effort into activities you clearly do not enjoy to get a fancy weapon skin for a game you don’t want to play? Waving Twilight around as you run through Lion’s Arch isn’t going to magically make the game any better or more fun. The shiny wore off a long time ago, no one is going to be jealous of you because you have a fancy weapon skin – you’d draw more attention with a rarely seen skin like a Fused weapon instead of Twilight #5,383.

After all this struggle, when you finally do get your Legendary weapon, what will you do then? It doesn’t unlock any dungeons or new maps. It doesn’t crit for 5000x damage. It’s just a fancy looking exotic, the stats are the same as a 1.5 gold Pearl weapon you buy from the TP at any moment. If you don’t enjoy the game now, what will you do with no goal to focus on?

If loot and gold are seen as a reward the game offer players for playing, then the gap between high income activities and low income activities is just too big.

If you can find having fun in earning money for its own sake, (ignoring how silly the farming method) then the game will reward you handsomely with crazy opportunities. It starts with champion farm runs, extends to speedrushing half the dungeons for crazy amounts of money and includes having websites directing you towards lucrative events in real time.

If you just do what you want to do, when you do it, then loot is not part of the reward mechanism.

How is being able to load up on gambits, fight a t3 boss, and kill him in 10 seconds over and over again not considered ‘exploit’ level? I counted a guardian I was watching, and that’s literally how long it was taking him- it probably took longer for him to walk over to the ringmaster and get back in a fight than it did to kill the boss, and it was clearly effortless work because his strategy was simply charging the boss and swinging for a few seconds- and you could see thiefs/warriors do the same.

Point is- people with certain classes are farming gold at easily ten times the speed anyone else can, and without needing to do anything remotely challenging.

But- surely Anet planned that.

what was the guardian doing to exploit the game fungihoujo?

KOPPER.1458:

what was the guardian doing to exploit the game fungihoujo?

They’re not exploiting, john has already commented telling us that doing what the guardian was doing is completely ok with anet’s plans.

John Smith.4610:

It’s actually very useful, you just need to apply a little work.
Think of what you know. You know that many, many people play the content, which means you know the distribution is dense.
Knowing the general shapes of dense distributions, apply a tail to each side, but I told you I eliminated one tail.
Now you have several possible models of total wealth gain for the content that you can get pretty accurate with only the one number. The individual isn’t important for what you’re attempting to learn, only the aggregate.

“median player” – do you mean median income?
how is median informative against the concerns of this thread? median is exactly the kind of stats that is blind to outliers.
two scenarios:
-everyone (“large number”, 100’000 earners) can be earning 3g;
vs
- everyone (99’990 earners) can be earning 3g and 100 players may be earning 1’000g/week each;
median would NOT discriminate between above two very different scenarios.

the concern of the thread is exactly this later scenario. that
a. there is a significant influx of gold;
b. this influx is limited to select few players.
result: wealth distribution gap widens; inflation; select few enjoy easy fallout, while entire remaining playerbase are left with higher prices and same old small pockets.

the concern (which is some of two factors) of this thread is addressed by giving:
(a) some sort of time data (before after new content comparison) about overall gold aggregate dynamics;
(b) some sort of income distribution stats. eg have a data of weekly earning of each individual player (earning above 1 silver/week to ignore inactives) arranged in ascending order. and indicate how many players it took (# of obs) to earn top 10 percentile of entire weekly gold against total number of earners. eg if 100 players earned 10% of overall gold against 100’000 total earners, that would very much confirm that the concern of the thread is valid.

High end items are certainly experiencing inflation, since the “median” player doesn’t affect that market much anyways. Precursors and T6 mats/ectos are rising in price at the same time, which shouldn’t happen unless the market for them (rich players) is becoming larger. Storm nearly doubled in price (along with other precursor price rises), and ectos and t6 mats are also on the rise. I can think of no other reason for this other than the right tail of the distribution spiking immensely, and maybe some minor speculation on ascended crafting.

Simple Solution:

Reduce the Grind in GW2 massively. The lesser people have to grind for anything in the game, so lesser will be automatically the need to farm daily for hours massive amounts of gold just to get something in this game full of grind.
If you just can quicker achieve something in the game, what you want, than theres no stupid need to grind farm in the game daily for xx hours…

By reducing the grind can Anet automatically decrease the income of gold from any kind of drops. The less quicker money comes into the economy, so better do work the game money sinks to take money out of the game again, what will stabilize the ingame economy.

Money sinks must be always stronger than the overall money income, only that way can you prevent the economy from drivign into an inflation.

Anet said, GW2 should not be all about farming/grind and yet sadly its exactly the complete opposite of their words what they have done with the game so far.
Currently Id say Anet totally failed hard in this promise, but somehow i think it was absolutely expectable that they aren’t able to hold up on their words about this as sadly somehow this is a kind of MMORPG curse, that they always end up in massive grind everywhere so longer these games exist as the game receives over tiem more and more ways to gain rewards which can then somehow be farmed like crazy, what should never be the intention of the game at all to do this >.>

But games liek GW2 deliver to players always the stupid “need” to do this crap, because otherwise you’ll never get something what you want in the games, unless you’re not willing to grind your bums off for something for weeks/months, or erven years, when you look at certain total ridiculous achivement designs like half of all WvW achievements currently, which aren’t gettable in a humans lifetime >.<

And this can’t be meant serious! or do they really espect from us to kill every day 24/7 every few minutes a dolyak, just to be done with that stupid yak slapper achievement in say 7 years ???? (and it will take like alot of more yerars, because my example is just impossible to do for anyone, because no one can play for such a time every single day the whole day the game and kill every like 3 mins a dolyak)

Its not just only the economy that has problems cause of the game beign against Anets words full of grind, but also many other thigns in the current game design that have to be looked at too!!!

This is only happening for 2-3 weeks, don’t expect a post-apocalypse economy crash forever.

Orpheal.8263:

Simple Solution:

Reduce the Grind in GW2 massively. The lesser people have to grind for anything in the game, so lesser will be automatically the need to farm daily for hours massive amounts of gold just to get something in this game full of grind.
If you just can quicker achieve something in the game, what you want, than theres no stupid need to grind farm in the game daily for xx hours…

By reducing the grind can Anet automatically decrease the income of gold from any kind of drops. The less quicker money comes into the economy, so better do work the game money sinks to take money out of the game again, what will stabilize the ingame economy.

Money sinks must be always stronger than the overall money income, only that way can you prevent the economy from drivign into an inflation.

Anet said, GW2 should not be all about farming/grind and yet sadly its exactly the complete opposite of their words what they have done with the game so far.
Currently Id say Anet totally failed hard in this promise, but somehow i think it was absolutely expectable that they aren’t able to hold up on their words about this as sadly somehow this is a kind of MMORPG curse, that they always end up in massive grind everywhere so longer these games exist as the game receives over tiem more and more ways to gain rewards which can then somehow be farmed like crazy, what should never be the intention of the game at all to do this >.>

But games liek GW2 deliver to players always the stupid “need” to do this crap, because otherwise you’ll never get something what you want in the games, unless you’re not willing to grind your bums off for something for weeks/months, or erven years, when you look at certain total ridiculous achivement designs like half of all WvW achievements currently, which aren’t gettable in a humans lifetime >.<

And this can’t be meant serious! or do they really espect from us to kill every day 24/7 every few minutes a dolyak, just to be done with that stupid yak slapper achievement in say 7 years ???? (and it will take like alot of more yerars, because my example is just impossible to do for anyone, because no one can play for such a time every single day the whole day the game and kill every like 3 mins a dolyak)

Its not just only the economy that has problems cause of the game beign against Anets words full of grind, but also many other thigns in the current game design that have to be looked at too!!!

You must understand that a huge portion of why people play MMOs in the first place is to stand out and achieve things. And for it to be special, it must be something that other’s can’t easily get. This means you need to do something extraordinary to get that coveted gear/look whatever.

Farming is the only way to achieve this effect. Without farming, everyone would be able to get everything which ruins it for a huge number of people including myself. Farming is necessary. Farming is good. Farming is what drives an MMO.

Orpheal.8263:

Grind snip

Grind isn’t required. It’s a choice. The core of the game was designed for all types of players. If you want a rare weapon that shoots unicorns, you gotta earn it by completing a number of requirements. If you want to enjoy a racial story line, or just play with friends, that’s there too. So please don’t mistake your wants for “forced grind”.

Orpheal.8263:

Money sinks must be always stronger than the overall money income, only that way can you prevent the economy from drivign into an inflation.

There are a lot of money sinks in this game already. People just know how to get around sinks. Armor repair costs can be avoided by not getting killed. WP costs can be avoided by running map to map. TP taxes can be negated by increasing your sales price. Gem exchange fees can be avoided by using real money.

Orpheal.8263:

when you look at certain total ridiculous achivement designs like half of all WvW achievements currently, which aren’t gettable in a humans lifetime >.<

These are lifetime achievements, thus there’s no problem as to why it would take years to get. In GW1, only a handful of people ever got to the Dragon Rank 15 in HoH. It took my friend 7 years to get his. That said, Devon mentioned that they’re looking into adjusting some of the WvW achievements, but don’t expect any “easy mode” to maxing them out. If you want the title, earn it like the guys who got 250,000 kills before this game was a year old.

Orpheal.8263:

Its not just only the economy that has problems cause of the game beign against Anets words full of grind, but also many other thigns in the current game design that have to be looked at too!!!

The only problem I see is the efficiency of the farming, not the farming itself. That’s why most things have the DR attached to prevent constant income. I don’t blame Anet for a player who figured out how to farm a hard boss. They designed mechanics into the Gauntlet to push players think outside the box. Just so happens we’re using the mechanics to battle their mechanics.

Getting back to the purpose of this thread – A smaller portion of the population making a lot more money than everyone else won’t crash the economy, but they can influence it. That can also be said about speculating. I don’t know which would apply in this current period, as both and efficient farm and new T7 mats rumors exist.