Guild Wars 2

Has anyone noticed the small supply of ectoplasms that is left on the tradepost? There’s a few stacks of 200/300 and then after 40 theres nothing….is it going to dry up this evening? I’m going to watch whats going to happen

I dont know why its raising. Its much cheaper to craft lvl 80 rares and salvaging them.

Malediktus.9250:

I dont know why its raising. Its much cheaper to craft lvl 80 rares and salvaging them.

people are lazy. That is why all the expensive items are expensive on the TP. Why bother doing something yourself when you can just buy it. If the price gets too high due to lazy buyers you just blame “market manipulators” on the forums and hope Anet gives you the stuff for free.

well there’s about 75% chance to get ecto’s from rares on average and crafting the tier5 rares costs you well over 30 silver(think it’s 31s for cloth with the cheap silk and well over 33s with anything that neeeds mithril) . So it’s still cheaper and less effort to just buy ecto’s for now. Another thing i foresee is that once people do start crafting the prices of t5 mats will increase even more.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Malediktus.9250:

I dont know why its raising. Its much cheaper to craft lvl 80 rares and salvaging them.

people are lazy. That is why all the expensive items are expensive on the TP. Why bother doing something yourself when you can just buy it. If the price gets too high due to lazy buyers you just blame “market manipulators” on the forums and hope Anet gives you the stuff for free.

made me laugh, and is partly true.

People are speculating that the Monday patch is going to introduce new recipes, such as the recipes to create better infused versions of ascended amulets.

maybe vol, but bot bans also meant less tier5 mats, so price of the mats goes up, people craft less or when they do craft it becomes more expensive, thus the price goes up. Also it should not be forgotten how much rares each bot can find per 24 hours and since they are now temporarily out of the picture, another reason the price goes up.
taking a look @ gw2spidy reveals a supply of 5000 and a demand of 88000….ouch

Jiro.6589:

maybe vol, but bot bans also meant less tier5 mats, so price of the mats goes up, people craft less or when they do craft it becomes more expensive, thus the price goes up. Also it should not be forgotten how much rares each bot can find per 24 hours and since they are now temporarily out of the picture, another reason the price goes up.
taking a look @ gw2spidy reveals a supply of 5000 and a demand of 88000….ouch

Maybe so – the first bot ban wave in November eventually led to a high of 37S per ecto.

T5 crafting mats have not increased much in price.
my guess is that it did a sudden increase after recent bot banning and now people are buying them up in case the price goes higher, which of course will make the price go higher :P
starting to wish I didn’t sell my 120 ecto at 36s. but not the worst market choice I’ve ever made :P (I’d say candy corn was)
it’s kinda funny how many things are influenced by ectos.

Mystic.5934:

T5 crafting mats have not increased much in price.
my guess is that it did a sudden increase after recent bot banning and now people are buying them up in case the price goes higher, which of course will make the price go higher :P
starting to wish I didn’t sell my 120 ecto at 36s. but not the worst market choice I’ve ever made :P (I’d say candy corn was)
it’s kinda funny how many things are influenced by ectos.

Yeah a lot of people made that mistake… I still have 7500 candy corn sitting in my bank lol.

My sample sizes are tiny, but looking at the month of January, my ecto salvage rate (which a friend and I have been tracking) looks like this:

1/1-1/12
Black Lion Kit – 1.35 ecto/rare
Masters Kit – 0.95 ecto/rare

1/13-1/25
Black Lion Kit – 1.05 ecto/rare
Masters Kit – 0.74 ecto/rare

Both salvage rates dropped by approximately 22% from the first half of the month to the last half of the month. As for the sample size, as I mentioned it’s just not good enough to draw solid conclusions from. It’s about 50 per set for Black Lion and 100 per set for Master’s. Does anyone else have salvage rate data which they can share over the same two time periods?

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Ecto-Salvage-Stats-Spreadsheet/first#post692770

There’s links to a data entry form too and a results spreadsheet. It doesn’t do data for different time periods last I checked, but I’m sure someone could come up with a way to get that information from the raw data there.

Gilosean.3805:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/Ecto-Salvage-Stats-Spreadsheet/first#post692770

There’s links to a data entry form too and a results spreadsheet. It doesn’t do data for different time periods last I checked, but I’m sure someone could come up with a way to get that information from the raw data there.

Without it having been recorded when entered, I’m fairly certain there’s no way to retrieve timestamp data. Thanks for the link though as it’s nice to have a comparison point for my overall data as well.

Syeria.4812:

My sample sizes are tiny, but looking at the month of January, my ecto salvage rate (which a friend and I have been tracking) looks like this:

1/1-1/12
Black Lion Kit – 1.35 ecto/rare
Masters Kit – 0.95 ecto/rare

1/13-1/25
Black Lion Kit – 1.05 ecto/rare
Masters Kit – 0.74 ecto/rare

Both salvage rates dropped by approximately 22% from the first half of the month to the last half of the month. As for the sample size, as I mentioned it’s just not good enough to draw solid conclusions from. It’s about 50 per set for Black Lion and 100 per set for Master’s. Does anyone else have salvage rate data which they can share over the same two time periods?

As you said, your sample sizes are tiny.

I stopped making ecto a few week ago but my last 5,000 salvages with master kits showed a 91.4% yield. My runs of 125 salvages varied from a low of 68 to a high of 146 but over 5,000 salvages, it was 91.4%

Anet has said they did not change the yield and if they did, they would announce it. They also confirmed that salvage is not affected by DR or Magic Find.

Mystic.5934:

T5 crafting mats have not increased much in price.
my guess is that it did a sudden increase after recent bot banning and now people are buying them up in case the price goes higher, which of course will make the price go higher :P
starting to wish I didn’t sell my 120 ecto at 36s. but not the worst market choice I’ve ever made :P (I’d say candy corn was)
it’s kinda funny how many things are influenced by ectos.

I’m sorry, but this is simply incorrect.

In December, prices were as low as 59c and averaged around 65-75c. Most T5 mats are now in the 200c range.

Based on the current T5 mat prices, ecto is actually under priced somewhat.

Dreamslayer.7659:

Anet has said they did not change the yield and if they did, they would announce it. They also confirmed that salvage is not affected by DR or Magic Find.

I fully believe Anet when they say they haven’t adjusted anything, but judging from behaviors of supposedly random events in the game, I have reason to suspect that their methods of generating random numbers aren’t working in a very random fashion.

T5 is 2s?? I know a lot of T6 mats are… as of last night, these are the prices of T5 mats I saw: mithril=55c, silk=15c, thick leather=8c, elder wood=11c
checking spidy just now confirms these approximate prices.

2 weeks ago I salvaged 140 lvl 68+ rare armors with Mystic kits and had a 80% ecto return rate

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Yeah a lot of people made that mistake… I still have 7500 candy corn sitting in my bank lol.

yeah… I bought about 20 stacks at 4c each, then 40 more at 2c each. I was going to be sol on bank space, but about 2 days after halloween ended I listed them all on the TP for about equal amounts at 10c, 15c, 20c, 25c, 30c, 35c, 40c, 45c, 50c, 55c, 60c :P so as the price increases I’ll start seeing my return. and it takes 0 bank space.

Mystic.5934:

T5 is 2s?? I know a lot of T6 mats are… as of last night, these are the prices of T5 mats I saw: mithril=55c, silk=15c, thick leather=8c, elder wood=11c
checking spidy just now confirms these approximate prices.

T5 fine (not common) mats are hovering near 2s. Looking at my list quickly, other than dust they’re all between 1.79s and 2.02s.

yes, fine T5’s have gone up. I guess I just don’t consider fines the default when talking about materials unless specified. I thought those went up because the fine T6 mats went up.
I think that in general, bots bring non-gold into the game and hoard gold they can sell them for. so less bots = inflation on everything. some things were going to drop in price anyways, so they stay the same after a wave of bot banning.

Mystic.5934:

yes, fine T5’s have gone up. I guess I just don’t consider fines the default when talking about materials unless specified. I thought those went up because the fine T6 mats went up.
I think that in general, bots bring non-gold into the game and hoard gold they can sell them for. so less bots = inflation on everything. some things were going to drop in price anyways, so they stay the same after a wave of bot banning.

It takes (15) T5 Fine materials to make an inscription or insignia – these represent the bulk of the cost of making rare items. Light armor requires between 6s and 6.5s in thread/leather/silk and those prices do not move very much.

The price of Ecto will always track T5 fine material and a large chunk of the ecto on the TP is created by crafters/salvagers. Supply is low right now because it’s just not likely to be profitable under current market conditions.

Dreamslayer.7659:

Mystic.5934:

yes, fine T5’s have gone up. I guess I just don’t consider fines the default when talking about materials unless specified. I thought those went up because the fine T6 mats went up.
I think that in general, bots bring non-gold into the game and hoard gold they can sell them for. so less bots = inflation on everything. some things were going to drop in price anyways, so they stay the same after a wave of bot banning.

It takes (15) T5 Fine materials to make an inscription or insignia – these represent the bulk of the cost of making rare items. Light armor requires between 6s and 6.5s in thread/leather/silk and those prices do not move very much.

The price of Ecto will always track T5 fine material and a large chunk of the ecto on the TP is created by crafters/salvagers. Supply is low right now because it’s just not likely to be profitable under current market conditions.

Funny, I always thought it was the reverse. The price of T5 materials tracks the price of Ectos.

88,000 – 90,000 demand for the past month, supply went from 50,000 to about 6,000 in the same time frame. What is going on? The mythical stealth “nerf” doesn’t exist I’ve been told.

John Smith is the only one who claimed it didn’t exist, but I wouldn’t trust him at all.

I wonder why it is that every time I start noticing lower returns on my own personal salvaging, I check the TP and notice a price spike?

Not saying they’re intentionally tampering with the salvage rates, but it certainly seems like every time I notice a difference, the market does too.

Yeah, it is probably Arenanet stealth nerfing things, and has nothing to do with players stocking up on Ecto prior to the release of a new Ascended piece.

Common Sense People

Are ecto chances with mystic salvage kits 20%?

DaShi.1368:

Are ecto chances with mystic salvage kits 20%?

Mystic has 25% chance of rarer materials, this includes ectos.

Because you need ecto’s for EVERYTHING EVER and the only way to get them is by salvaging rare’s and exotics.
Supply and demand

Dreamslayer.7659:

As you said, your sample sizes are tiny.

No, not really.

Results should already be pretty consistent with 100 & 50 salvages, when the odds are this high (something like 33% to get an ecto, with 3 rolls per salvage or some equal system like 0-20 = 0 ecto, 21-80 = 1 ecto, 81-90 = 2 ectos, 91-100 = 3 ecto).

When you do those 100 & 50 times and see that big of a difference, it is very unlikely that it is not significant.

MattCoy.3098:

DaShi.1368:

Are ecto chances with mystic salvage kits 20%?

Mystic has 25% chance of rarer materials, this includes ectos.

No, it does not include ectos, ecots aren’t considered rare for this.

Ive been trying to make a anomaly but with the prices getting higher everytime it will take me forever.

Syeria.4812:

Dreamslayer.7659:

Anet has said they did not change the yield and if they did, they would announce it. They also confirmed that salvage is not affected by DR or Magic Find.

I fully believe Anet when they say they haven’t adjusted anything, but judging from behaviors of supposedly random events in the game, I have reason to suspect that their methods of generating random numbers aren’t working in a very random fashion.

Reloaded GW2 yesterday after a rebuild and yes not all of the download was gw but 16g total. Now considering the amount of code that is if Anet says nothing has been changed its safe to say nothing was intentionally changed.

It doesnt preclude that variable 103963b in line 9345772 of the code wasnt changed instead of variable 103963c when they adjusted the number of feather on the chickens in queensdale

That said the peak appears to have bee 38s slight increase in number of ectos and slight drop in price now

cargan.5689:

Syeria.4812:

Dreamslayer.7659:

Anet has said they did not change the yield and if they did, they would announce it. They also confirmed that salvage is not affected by DR or Magic Find.

I fully believe Anet when they say they haven’t adjusted anything, but judging from behaviors of supposedly random events in the game, I have reason to suspect that their methods of generating random numbers aren’t working in a very random fashion.

Reloaded GW2 yesterday after a rebuild and yes not all of the download was gw but 16g total. Now considering the amount of code that is if Anet says nothing has been changed its safe to say nothing was intentionally changed.

It doesnt preclude that variable 103963b in line 9345772 of the code wasnt changed instead of variable 103963c when they adjusted the number of feather on the chickens in queensdale

That said the peak appears to have bee 38s slight increase in number of ectos and slight drop in price now

So your answer to why someone is seeing poor ecto yields in small samples is to wonder if the game code may have been inadvertently tampered with or altered – in such a way that nobody notices except those who salvage ecto (in small samples)?

There is a very simple reason why the ecto supply is so low right now. I personally used to manufacture between 500 and 2000 ecto per day. Many other people did this as well. However, the price of T5 material (blood/bone/claw/fang/totem/sac) is too high for this to be profitable so it’s not being done – except by people who are bad at math or by those who farm their own mats.

I suspect that the uptick in supply is from people who have large reserves selling off some of their stock.

The other, sources of ecto are dungeon runners converting their tokens into rares and people who just salvage their drops.

That’s it. Ecto does not drop as loot.

Let me address one other issue. Just because people salvaging thousands upon thousands of rares have noted a roughly 91% yield does not mean that you only have a 9% chance of not getting ecto.

You have a fairly significant chance of salvaging a rare and not getting an ecto – I’ve had runs of 10+ salvages without ecto. However, when you do get an ecto, you have a chance of getting between 1 and 3 (from rares). This means that if you have a 20-30% chance of getting zero, the chance of getting 2 or 3 will, over the long run, tend to give you an average of 91%.

To simplify and illustrate this, image that you have a 90% chance to get zero ecto and a 10% chance to get 9 ecto. The mean number of ecto per salvage would be 90%, but the median and mode would both be zero. In very large samples, you would expect to see a 90% yield, but in small batches, you would be much more likley to see zero.

Of course the current system is not as extreme as that, but don’t imagine that you have a 90% chance to get ecto every time you salvage something.

Take a look around Orr and compare the number of players killing mobs that drop T5 fine materials to the number there used to be. Then look at the number of CoF path 1 speed clear groups that farm up a lot of gold but very few salable goods.

The economy had a pretty stable pattern of CoF farmers paying for ecto, which came from manufacturers making ecto from the T5 materials botters farmed up – and sold for the gold from the CoF farmers. Without the bots, the cycle breaks, and prices necessarily rise.

They’ll drop back down when CoF is nerfed or when the next wave of bots starts up.

Ensign.2189:

Take a look around Orr and compare the number of players killing mobs that drop T5 fine materials to the number there used to be. Then look at the number of CoF path 1 speed clear groups that farm up a lot of gold but very few salable goods.

The economy had a pretty stable pattern of CoF farmers paying for ecto, which came from manufacturers making ecto from the T5 materials botters farmed up – and sold for the gold from the CoF farmers. Without the bots, the cycle breaks, and prices necessarily rise.

They’ll drop back down when CoF is nerfed or when the next wave of bots starts up.

This raises an interesting question. Are bots gold sinks?

pretty much – bots collect gold and supply everything else. people gather gold and buy everything else :P