Explanation for this found on TP?
My first guess would be, the player has found these green items to have a high chance of returning yellows (rares) from the mystic forge. Thus he is buying 4 × 1s 46c (5.48 silver) with a high chance of turning them into a rare, usually for globs of ectoplasm. Globs are going for around 40 silver IIRC. If hes doing this, its probably a pretty smart move. As far as I am concerned, there is a high probability that certain items have a higher chance of coming back with upgrades from the mystic forge, but it has not officially been confirmed.
Another version would be a slow-poke-flipper, the one that has probably forgot to take the buy orders off after the margin was destroyed.
This is tailored towards people who are either too lazy to merchant or have bags so full and want to sell asap.
or
they want to forge greens in hopes for a rare
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Magic find works. http://sinasdf.imgur.com/
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Magic find works. http://sinasdf.imgur.com/
I would be doing that(placing orders like that) if I had the gold to burn and willing to take the risk. Beats going through the whole list of items on the TP and trying to buy them at similar prices.
What level are these items? Certain <80 rares are strangely expensive(more than lv80 rares) for some reason.
Another version would be a slow-poke-flipper, the one that has probably forgot to take the buy orders off after the margin was destroyed.
Could also be a person willing to take a sizeable risk for an extremely low margin. The pistol purchase would net him an 88c profit if he sold them for 1c lower than the current sell rate.
Most likely it’s someone trying to make rares in the forge though.
I wonder, is that literally by “one buyer” or it listing all the highest buy orders?
Can anyone check something like, I dunno Iron Ores? Does it say “30,000 ordered by one buyer?” Or something else.
Just from the perspective of buy orders, it doesn’t make sense to actually segregate individual buyers, because the seller could care less.
I wonder, is that literally by “one buyer” or it listing all the highest buy orders?
Can anyone check something like, I dunno Iron Ores? Does it say “30,000 ordered by one buyer?” Or something else.
Just from the perspective of buy orders, it doesn’t make sense to actually segregate individual buyers, because the seller could care less.
I’m fairly certain it differentiates (as I’ve seen “by [x] buyers” where x > 1). Obviously I can’t confirm if it’s working right, but it does make that distinction.
hehe. I know I sometimes make buy orders that others might look at and be like “why the puppy!?” for me, it’s speculation and high/low trading. buy something for 1c above vendor price (very little risk), then resell on TP when the sell order price makes it profitable.
GW2Profits - a collection of gold-producing tools
Mystic’s Gold Profiting Guide
Forge & more JSON recipes
Mystic’s Gold Profiting Guide
Forge & more JSON recipes
My first guess would be, the player has found these green items to have a high chance of returning yellows (rares) from the mystic forge. Thus he is buying 4 × 1s 46c (5.48 silver) with a high chance of turning them into a rare, usually for globs of ectoplasm. Globs are going for around 40 silver IIRC. If hes doing this, its probably a pretty smart move. As far as I am concerned, there is a high probability that certain items have a higher chance of coming back with upgrades from the mystic forge, but it has not officially been confirmed.
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
EDIT:
For a more accurate guess on the ecto drop rate per usage, take the 25% from Master’s Salvage Kit, and apply that to a Rare item. This means that 25% of the time, an ecto will drop. However, you must keep in mind that the ecto drop range is 1-3, meaning that the possibilities are:
1/3 * 25% or (8.25%): 1
1/3 * 25% or (8.25%): 2
1/3 * 25% or (8.25%): 3
75%: 0
From there, we can statistically state that there is a 25% chance of getting 2 ecto and a 75% chance of getting 0 ecto because the average Ecto gain, when successful, is 2.
So then, the statistical probability of getting just ONE ecto from an item lies somewhere between 25% and 75%. For the layman, you can just (incorrectly, I might add) add the 8.25% chance to the 25% chance leaving you with a 33.25% chance of getting a single ecto.
I lost my train of thought and can’t remember what I was going to say.
Feel free to tear apart my math, it’s probably wrong in one way or the other, but it’s still better than nothing when wondering why people would buy greens.
(edited by Esplen.3940)
just remember if you sell on the TP to somebody offering the same as vendor price, you’re netting 15% less than if you just vendored the item.
Berner | Nitzerebb | Suna | Shivayanama
[TSFR] – Jade Quarry
[TSFR] – Jade Quarry
My first guess would be, the player has found these green items to have a high chance of returning yellows (rares) from the mystic forge. Thus he is buying 4 × 1s 46c (5.48 silver) with a high chance of turning them into a rare, usually for globs of ectoplasm. Globs are going for around 40 silver IIRC. If hes doing this, its probably a pretty smart move. As far as I am concerned, there is a high probability that certain items have a higher chance of coming back with upgrades from the mystic forge, but it has not officially been confirmed.
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
I’m curious, where did you find that 20% from? The wiki? I’m probably stupid but can’t seem to find it myself.
My first guess would be, the player has found these green items to have a high chance of returning yellows (rares) from the mystic forge. Thus he is buying 4 × 1s 46c (5.48 silver) with a high chance of turning them into a rare, usually for globs of ectoplasm. Globs are going for around 40 silver IIRC. If hes doing this, its probably a pretty smart move. As far as I am concerned, there is a high probability that certain items have a higher chance of coming back with upgrades from the mystic forge, but it has not officially been confirmed.
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
I’m curious, where did you find that 20% from? The wiki? I’m probably stupid but can’t seem to find it myself.
I’ve seen it quoted many times (and I think the wiki claims it on the Mystic Forge page) but have never seen data to back it up. It seems…reasonable compared to my luck with the forge, but I’ve yet to see it actually calculated.
As for level 80 rares (and I suspect down to level 76, but my data only includes 80s) the expected yield from a master’s salvage is around 0.8-0.9 ectos per salvage attempt.
Never personally seen it stated that its 20%, but from my experience that sounds about right. I farm fractals and throw all greens in the MF.
Also, there is the added value of a rune. When you get a rare, you can sell the rune for around 4-6 silver on the TP. Now that, I dont know why people are paying for.
My first guess would be, the player has found these green items to have a high chance of returning yellows (rares) from the mystic forge. Thus he is buying 4 × 1s 46c (5.48 silver) with a high chance of turning them into a rare, usually for globs of ectoplasm. Globs are going for around 40 silver IIRC. If hes doing this, its probably a pretty smart move. As far as I am concerned, there is a high probability that certain items have a higher chance of coming back with upgrades from the mystic forge, but it has not officially been confirmed.
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
I’m curious, where did you find that 20% from? The wiki? I’m probably stupid but can’t seem to find it myself.
I’ve seen it quoted many times (and I think the wiki claims it on the Mystic Forge page) but have never seen data to back it up. It seems…reasonable compared to my luck with the forge, but I’ve yet to see it actually calculated.
As for level 80 rares (and I suspect down to level 76, but my data only includes 80s) the expected yield from a master’s salvage is around 0.8-0.9 ectos per salvage attempt.
No, it’s true that there isn’t that much data to back it up, but the 20% upgrade is directly relating to rares —> exotic conversion. It wouldn’t make sense for it to be a lower chance from doing masterwork —> exotics, but it is entirely plausible.
20% is also a pretty accurate number on the RNG upgrades, if you’ve used the MF a ton.
I’m not 100% sure, but I believe that it was hinted at a confirmation by Gaile in a previous post a long time ago.
Never personally seen it stated that its 20%, but from my experience that sounds about right. I farm fractals and throw all greens in the MF.
Also, there is the added value of a rune. When you get a rare, you can sell the rune for around 4-6 silver on the TP. Now that, I dont know why people are paying for.
The runes that come off of rares are always rare runes. People feed those back into the forge to attempt to get some of the high value exotic runes such as Divinity (8g) or Eagle (5g). Even the cheap exotic runes tend to be 15s-40s.
Never personally seen it stated that its 20%, but from my experience that sounds about right. I farm fractals and throw all greens in the MF.
Also, there is the added value of a rune. When you get a rare, you can sell the rune for around 4-6 silver on the TP. Now that, I dont know why people are paying for.
The runes that come off of rares are always rare runes. People feed those back into the forge to attempt to get some of the high value exotic runes such as Divinity (8g) or Eagle (5g). Even the cheap exotic runes tend to be 15s-40s.
Ah yes, I forgot. 20% upgrade chance for Runes/Sigils being thrown in. That one is confirmed on the wiki.
Never personally seen it stated that its 20%, but from my experience that sounds about right. I farm fractals and throw all greens in the MF.
Also, there is the added value of a rune. When you get a rare, you can sell the rune for around 4-6 silver on the TP. Now that, I dont know why people are paying for.
The runes that come off of rares are always rare runes. People feed those back into the forge to attempt to get some of the high value exotic runes such as Divinity (8g) or Eagle (5g). Even the cheap exotic runes tend to be 15s-40s.
Ah yes, I forgot. 20% upgrade chance for Runes/Sigils being thrown in. That one is confirmed on the wiki.
T_T Mind linking me? I’m seriously super stupid, because I can’t for the love of Ogden’s Hammer find that page.
Never personally seen it stated that its 20%, but from my experience that sounds about right. I farm fractals and throw all greens in the MF.
Also, there is the added value of a rune. When you get a rare, you can sell the rune for around 4-6 silver on the TP. Now that, I dont know why people are paying for.
The runes that come off of rares are always rare runes. People feed those back into the forge to attempt to get some of the high value exotic runes such as Divinity (8g) or Eagle (5g). Even the cheap exotic runes tend to be 15s-40s.
Ah yes, I forgot. 20% upgrade chance for Runes/Sigils being thrown in. That one is confirmed on the wiki.
T_T Mind linking me? I’m seriously super stupid, because I can’t for the love of Ogden’s Hammer find that page.
There is roughly a 20% chance to create a random higher rarity dye, rune or mini-pet by respectively combining four dyes, runes, sigils, or mini-pets.
I’ll try see if I can dig out who actually put that on the page as well.
http://wiki.guildwars2.com/wiki/Mystic_Forge#Notes
There is roughly a 20% chance to create a random higher rarity dye, rune or mini-pet by respectively combining four dyes, runes, sigils, or mini-pets.
To follow up my previous comment, the edit was made by “Drnuncheon” on October 21, 2012 and is two of the three edits he’s made. (Two of three because he made the edit, then immediately made another edit to rephrase.)
It would be nice if we had some data to support the figure, but even if it isn’t accurate, it seems to be reasonably close.
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
Quoting myself because I did the math wrong.
It requires 4 to have a 1/5th chance to get a rare, therefore one chance is 4 * 1.46s = 5.84s per chance.
There is a 1/5th chance to get a rare (not guaranteed), therefore 5.84 * 5 = 29.20s per rare. Add the salvage cost, and you get 29.20s + 1.84s.
So, we end up with:
29.20s per rare.
31.04s per rare salvage.
93.12s per ecto (assuming 1/3 chance of getting an ecto).
In terms of getting a rare, this can be cost-effective. In terms of getting an ecto, this is not cost-effective, however it is the same statistical probability with every rare salvage, and it’s a relatively cheap way of getting rares.
So, if you want to try your odds at getting a rare that’s worth more than 30s, go for it. Else, it’s a gamble. But that’s anything with the MF.
(edited by Esplen.3940)
1/5 chance of upgrade via MF.
Statistically that means that 1s46c x 5 = 7s30c is the equivalent of one Rare (if it’s Masterwork).
From there, if it’s level 68-80, it has a theoretical (unconfirmed) 33% chance of dropping an ecto. Meaning that 1/3 of them will work, so it would be…
21.9s for one ecto.
Then, each Master Salvage Kit use is 61.44c, and we used 3 of them in this theory salvage, so… +1.84s.
23.74 is the total cost of that one ecto via this method assuming you’re buying the greens at 1s 46c AND that they’re level 80. (Level 68-80 drop ecto, but the higher level, the higher chance.)
Quoting myself because I did the math wrong.
It requires 4 to have a 1/5th chance to get a rare, therefore one chance is 4 * 1.46s = 5.84s per chance.
There is a 1/5th chance to get a rare (not guaranteed), therefore 5.84 * 5 = 29.20s per rare. Add the salvage cost, and you get 29.20s + 1.84s.
So, we end up with:
29.20s per rare.
31.04s per rare salvage.
93.12s per ecto (assuming 1/3 chance of getting an ecto).In terms of getting a rare, this can be cost-effective. In terms of getting an ecto, this is not cost-effective, however it is the same statistical probability with every rare salvage, and it’s a relatively cheap way of getting rares.
So, if you want to try your odds at getting a rare that’s worth more than 30s, go for it. Else, it’s a gamble. But that’s anything with the MF.
I have two things to add to this.
You’re not taking into account the output from “failures” in the forge. On average, 5 trials in the forge will result in 1 rare and 4 masterwork items. If you consider those masterworks to be re-fed into the forge, it only takes 4 trials worth of items to result in a rare.
The expected ectoplasm yield from level 80 (I assume this is true down to 76, but my data only includes 80s) is between 0.80-0.90. This number is taken from data I’ve been recording and is mirrored by other data I have seen shared.
So, taking those into account (and using 0.80 to be pessimistic about the yield) these are the figures I get:
4 * 4 * 1.46 = 23.36s
23.36s per rare
25.20s per salvage
31.50s per ecto
At the current price of 39.59s (min-sell) for ectos, that’s a profit of 2.15s per ecto (after tax) plus other salvage results. If you swap in black lion salvages instead (assuming they were acquired for free, and not being used for anything else and therefore have no value) the cost per ecto is down around 20.31s with a profit of 13.34s per ecto.
I thought the expected returns for an ecto is 0.8/rare salvage?
If so, then it’s 31.04/0.8 which is about 38.8s.
What prices are ectos at now? I might as well start doing this actually, while ecto prices are high…
PS Thanks for the numbers and calculations =)
I thought the expected returns for an ecto is 0.8/rare salvage?
If so, then it’s 31.04/0.8 which is about 38.8s.
What prices are ectos at now? I might as well start doing this actually, while ecto prices are high…
PS Thanks for the numbers and calculations =)
Ectos last night were about 38.8. The night before they were at 39.6. I notice some kind of price cutting going on for these though and you can frequently get them for around 37.5s. Also, remember its not just ectos with rares. They also often provide tier 5 mats and a rune, which I believe would cover the loss on the ecto sale. Also, a failed rare is still another green you can use again.