Guild Wars 2

Obtena.7952:

phys.7689:

Aidan Savage.2078:

It’s just as, and more, stupid than I depict it. If you have that much money to throw around, there are far more profitable things to waste it on than some notion of controlling precursor prices. It’s as idiotic and stupid as the idea someone’s controlling the prices of legendaries, or iron ore.

what about it is idiotic? As long as you make money, its worthwhile. if you give up 500 gold, and make 4000 gold, over the course of two weeks, thats 250 gold extra a day. You also have to realize that the theoretical player wouldnt just be doing this, they would be doing other things as well, since the market has limits on what you can do within a specific market, the way to make more money is to hit other markets.

I see that you think its foolish on general principle, but i see no actual reasoning or data that says why its foolish. Its actually pretty common business strategy to buy out your competition to control more of the market.

now, i could see someone saying they dont think it would be easy to pull off, or that if they do pull it off, it means that the precursor prices were undervalued, but that doesnt mean it doesnt make sense.

It was explained quite clearly what it was idiotic …. speculating on precursors has a higher risk/reward ratio than other items on the TP. See here …

Wanze.8410:

Aidan Savage.2078:

It’s just as, and more, stupid than I depict it. If you have that much money to throw around, there are far more profitable things to waste it on than some notion of controlling precursor prices. It’s as idiotic and stupid as the idea someone’s controlling the prices of legendaries, or iron ore.

^^

There are many other ways to make 400g with 200g initial investment within 3 weeks, so why spend your gold on precursors? It just makes no sense at all.

in my post that you quoted i explained why the other markets are not relevant. no market is infinite, if you have enough money and you want to make more, you have to hit more markets.

and they dont really have higher risk/reward.
if someone manufactured, or bought the precursors at 500-700 gold and sell to buy order for 1050, they make 392-192 gold per sale or 78% -27% profit. even spending some money to raise the price, if they got 10-20 precursors to sell you are still looking at 50-15% profits per transaction. That is on par with many other TP profits.

thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

phys.7689:

and they dont really have higher risk/reward.
if someone manufactured, or bought the precursors at 500-700 gold and sell to buy order for 1050, they make 392-192 gold per sale or 78% -27% profit. even spending some money to raise the price, if they got 10-20 precursors to sell you are still looking at 50-15% profits per transaction. That is on par with many other TP profits.

thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

You could spin your data even more by saying that if someone purchased Dusk for 25 Gold two years ago, and sold it recently for 1200 Gold, they just made 4,700% profit (not including TP tax). But if I used more current data, I could show you that a little while ago, I could buy Spark for 1100 Gold, but now no one is willing to pay over 1k for it.

Luxury item speculating will always have higher risk.

I think people just think anet might spam precursor for future event, or make easier way to acquire them. That obviously havn’t happen.

no one knows exactly what anet will do.

phys.7689:

if someone manufactured, or bought the precursors at 500-700 gold and sell to buy order for 1050, they make 392-192 gold per sale or 78% -27% profit. even spending some money to raise the price, if they got 10-20 precursors to sell you are still looking at 50-15% profits per transaction. That is on par with many other TP profits.

thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

ok 700 going up to 1050, you make like 192 profit. Seems alot. That’s 27% profit. But honestly you can buy just about anything and make those profit.

Heck someone flipped grinn shiled, and sun/wind catcher and make 60k gold. Just flipping 3 item.

27% isn’t alot, especially if you need to stock it for like 8 month. If you just flip tier 6 material, for example tier 6 totem you can make like double profit in a few month. Anet is spaming precursor crafting forever, I honestly wouldn’t invest in precursor.

heck invest in unidentified dyes, that is already 30% profit in a few weeks. Quite honestly “anything” I invested for over 8 month went up over 30%. Which isn’t even good, since the CPI is probably over 30% anyway.

Smooth Penguin.5294:

phys.7689:

and they dont really have higher risk/reward.
if someone manufactured, or bought the precursors at 500-700 gold and sell to buy order for 1050, they make 392-192 gold per sale or 78% -27% profit. even spending some money to raise the price, if they got 10-20 precursors to sell you are still looking at 50-15% profits per transaction. That is on par with many other TP profits.

thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

You could spin your data even more by saying that if someone purchased Dusk for 25 Gold two years ago, and sold it recently for 1200 Gold, they just made 4,700% profit (not including TP tax). But if I used more current data, I could show you that a little while ago, I could buy Spark for 1100 Gold, but now no one is willing to pay over 1k for it.

Luxury item speculating will always have higher risk.

looking at the current data defeats the purpose. Thats like saying its impossible to make money flipping real estate, because once you sell the house for 400k, you can only buy it back for 400k. Or saying it would be pointless to try to raise the property values of a neighborhood, spending money paying off politicians, and buy run down houses, when you bought up all the other houses months ago.

The whole point is, first you get a whole bunch of them cheap, whether through being a precursor gambler, or through buying them over time. Now, when you are ready to sell you stash, it behooves you to increase the value of the market.

Because you have already bought them, and you are ready to sell, now your best way to maximize that return, is to try to increase the value.

laokoko.7403:

phys.7689:

if someone manufactured, or bought the precursors at 500-700 gold and sell to buy order for 1050, they make 392-192 gold per sale or 78% -27% profit. even spending some money to raise the price, if they got 10-20 precursors to sell you are still looking at 50-15% profits per transaction. That is on par with many other TP profits.

thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

ok 700 going up to 1050, you make like 192 profit. Seems alot. That’s 27% profit. But honestly you can buy just about anything and make those profit.

Heck someone flipped grinn shiled, and sun/wind catcher and make 60k gold. Just flipping 3 item.

27% isn’t alot, especially if you need to stock it for like 8 month. If you just flip tier 6 material, for example tier 6 totem you can make like double profit in a few month. Anet is spaming precursor crafting forever, I honestly wouldn’t invest in precursor.

heck invest in unidentified dyes, that is already 30% profit in a few weeks. Quite honestly “anything” I invested for over 8 month went up over 30%. Which isn’t even good, since the CPI is probably over 30% anyway.

thing you are forgeting is it wasnt an 8 month plan, as recently as march it was 650 gold buy orders. If you were manufacturing them, carrion krait slayer was as low as 34 silver. intricate totems were 1.76

let say since two months ago, they been stacking or plotting, say they got 20 at a sub 700 price, by selling at 250 they made 3820, this is most likely WHILE they were doing other investments.
also keep in mind history shows that precursors tend to rise in value at a higher rate than inflation, you guys are thinking of this in terms of repeat performances, this is the final hustle before cashing out.

If you are going to sell your company, you are going to make it look as good, and as valuable on paper as possible, what happens after that is irrelvant. your goal is to get as much as you can for it.

perhaps someone knows new legendaries, or precursor quests are nearing completion (unlikely but who knows) and is looking to liquidate before a crash

regardless, point is, there are definately reasons to invest in pushing prices up before you sell stock.

Considering that the default is to sell to the highest buyer, I have to imagine that the majority of Precursors are sold to a buy offer, not listed on the market. This means that the ones that are listed do not accurately reflect the price of a Precursor and are mainly a trap for people with more gold than brains. Anyone who understands the basics of how the TP works will always buy their Precursor via a buy order, saving a king’s ransom in gold.

So then the question becomes, are there enough wealthy, non-thinking buyers to sustain a price push?

I think the answer is “no”. You can push the price if you have the capital, but due to the way most Precursor buyers operate, your push won’t last long and you will lose money.

mtpelion.4562:

Considering that the default is to sell to the highest buyer, I have to imagine that the majority of Precursors are sold to a buy offer, not listed on the market. This means that the ones that are listed do not accurately reflect the price of a Precursor and are mainly a trap for people with more gold than brains. Anyone who understands the basics of how the TP works will always buy their Precursor via a buy order, saving a king’s ransom in gold.

So then the question becomes, are there enough wealthy, non-thinking buyers to sustain a price push?

I think the answer is “no”. You can push the price if you have the capital, but due to the way most Precursor buyers operate, your push won’t last long and you will lose money.

once again, you have to realize, the buy order is relative to the sell order, by pushing sell order up, its even better when no one tries to sell that way, now you sell to buy orders, instantly and with no added risk.
so essentially raising the price of the sell order, is really just a ploy to increase buy order costs, at which point you sell to the buy orders fairly regularly.

this only applies if you have a decent supply that you want to sell, as you say, most sales are buy orders, they know who the customers are.

as for the push, the push lasts long enough, because as you say, people dont really sell via sell order too often, even if they do, they may undercut you by 50 or 100 gold, if you pushed it to 1400, then they undercut to 1200, and that one just sits there forever, its still achieving the goal of elevating the buy orders.

Just like when people inflate the price of an item, right before posting a sale.

phys.7689:

That is on par with many other TP profits. thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

Then what is the problem here? If profits flipping a ‘ANYTHING’ is comparable to a precursor flip, then why should anyone be concerned about flipping precursors but not other things? Why is the focus of a much larger concern being limited to precursors … The reason is that people are just jealous and feel entitled. No one complains when iron ore is flipped for 200% but …….. a precursor at 27%!!!! OMG!!!!! WTHBBQ!!!

There is a consistent theme with the con-TP posts: EQUALITY. That’s why the con-TP position is a failing one … it’s based on the premise that something is unfair because it’s unequal. The reality is that the fairness is based on access, which everyone has.

I think what people are trying to say is flipping precursor don’t “stand out” as a great flipping item.

I bought a few sclerite weapon and I double my profit instantly.

I think the last patch does have an influence on legendary price both in supply(lowering the overall supply of tier5 and tier6 material) and demand(wardrobe).

I doubt that many people is flipping precursor. Those people are manufacturing them for a living already are making a really good profit. And they need to keep selling them fast so they can keep doing them.

I don’t think you realize how much money those big time mystic forge maker are making from making precursor. I doubt they care about flipping 20 precursor and making 3800 gold.

you really need to have a lot of money and faith to throw money in to the forge. I have neither. But there is a few that do, and they are really rich now.

Obtena.7952:

phys.7689:

That is on par with many other TP profits. thats comparable to many peoples best hustles.

Then what is the problem here? If profits flipping a ‘ANYTHING’ is comparable to a precursor flip, then why should anyone be concerned about flipping precursors but not other things? Why is the focus of a much larger concern being limited to precursors … The reason is that people are just jealous and feel entitled. No one complains when iron ore is flipped for 200% but …….. a precursor at 27%!!!! OMG!!!!! WTHBBQ!!!

There is a consistent theme with the con-TP posts: EQUALITY. That’s why the con-TP position is a failing one … it’s based on the premise that something is unfair because it’s unequal. The reality is that the fairness is based on access, which everyone has.

strictly speaking, this thread is neither pro no con tp, its actually more about precursor prices, and the fact they seem to go up to the point of seeming unattainable. I got caught in a side debate about whether there would be any point in trying to raise precursor prices, some people disagree, thats fine.

Getting back on topic, precursors are expensive because they are rare items, with methods of obtaining them that are fairly random, so most people who dont like gambling have to buy them. They inflate fast, because they are the goal people aim for. No price is too high to achieve your goal (in a game) for many people. And people in the precursor market know this.

It will continue to get farther out of reach, as long as people make/save more money, or until some big changes happen.

laokoko.7403:

I think what people are trying to say is flipping precursor don’t “stand out” as a great flipping item.

I bought a few sclerite weapon and I double my profit instantly.

I think the last patch does have an influence on legendary price both in supply(lowering the overall supply of tier5 and tier6 material) and demand(wardrobe).

I doubt that many people is flipping precursor. Those people are manufacturing them for a living already are making a really good profit. And they need to keep selling them fast so they can keep doing them.

I don’t think you realize how much money those big time mystic forge maker are making from making precursor. I doubt they care about flipping 20 precursor and making 3800 gold.

you really need to have a lot of money and faith to throw money in to the forge. I have neither. But there is a few that do, and they are really rich now.

really you just have to not hate gambling. I personally would rather throw my money into the forge/air than give it to some other guy, but im stingy, and spiteful.

phys.7689:

Getting back on topic, precursors are expensive because they are rare items, with methods of obtaining them that are fairly random, so most people who dont like gambling have to buy them. They inflate fast, because they are the goal people aim for. No price is too high to achieve your goal (in a game) for many people. And people in the precursor market know this.

I won’t argue how much truth is in this but I will reiterate that a precursor is not out of reach for someone that makes it a goal to get one. It’s simply a matter of time. If a player can’t earn the gold to make that purchase because they don’t play enough or earn enough, you have to question whether or not that’s a reasonable goal for them to have a precursor or any endgame gear for that matter in the first place.

Next Weeks living story event should help with precursor prices.

As you may recall, the QJ primarily rewarded rares, T5/T6 mats, and lots and lots of sprockets. There was good gold to be had from drops, but the drops of stuff that gets forged into precursors exceeded the gold drops.

I predict that a lot of the players who were doing EOTM karma train or Pvp or other activities that reward silver ( but not primarily mystic forge precursor ingredients) come Zerg into the temporary content.

Precursor prices last year spiked when all the the mats and money everybody was making got people interested in crafting legendaries. This year should be a corrective.

The post nerf queens gauntlet was a gold sink.

I think people seem to forget that this is a game, not a job. Grinding for thousands of gold isn’t exactly fun. The content is extremely limited and with Arena Net killing the living story, it’s getting very static and dry again. Champion farming was nerfed, the only thing you can really do for decent gold rates now is dungeons and world events, however those have a daily cap. Spark reached 1.2k gold today. I forged a spark 2 weeks ago, it was worth 900g. 300g increase in a matter of a couple weeks is absolutely insane, there’s not really an regulation here. Someone stated earlier that it’s a matter of luck rather than a challenge, I absolutely agree, me throwing one attempt in the mystic forge and getting a spark was no challenge at all, I just got really lucky. I sold the spark and wasted money, there was no pride in randomly luck, I didn’t feel accomplished, I was simply reminded how pathetic this luck based system is. Currently these legendary weapons are the closest thing to end game content, right now this is in the form of an unachievable challenge. I have several thousand hours clocked for my one legendary. It’s just too much with a ceiling that’s too high.

What annoys me is how just a couple weeks ago Chaos Gun was under 500g, now its at almost 800

God ill never have enough kitten gold to get the last thing i need for Quip.
D:

Voreo Sabrae.5416:

What annoys me is how just a couple weeks ago Chaos Gun was under 500g, now its at almost 800

God ill never have enough kitten gold to get the last thing i need for Quip.
D:

Why don’t you place a buy order for the amount you have, and keep saving up money towards it. There’s no fee or expiration date, so if you get another 100 gold you can cancel the buy order and place another for a higher amount. Or if the market drops temporarily you might log in and find the buy order filled and you just pick up the precursor at your convenience.

because chances are everyones greedy and will just go with the highest buyer. i have almost 90g atm saved up

Voreo Sabrae.5416:

because chances are everyones greedy and will just go with the highest buyer. i have almost 90g atm saved up

Eventually you either become the highest buy order, or manage to come into enough money to outright buy. It’s a goal to work towards. If you’ve only got 90g saved up for the precursor so far, chances are you’ll not reach one for several weeks.

more like several months since my main source of income was cut from the game
frostgorge

Voreo Sabrae.5416:

because chances are everyones greedy and will just go with the highest buyer. i have almost 90g atm saved up

What does that have to do with it? Imagine someone “playing” with the market quits the game and sells 10 precursors to the 10 highest buy orders… a bunch of people get them for a bargain price, and you’re among them. Or not…

Voreo Sabrae.5416:

more like several months since my main source of income was cut from the game
frostgorge

Figure out a new one. It’s not that hard to do.

Legend has it that during the first time Karka Queen event came out, a lot of people got precursors and that tanked the market, wherein a chaos gun was around 30g. :o

False inflation always fails. The buyer will always end up winning out. Just be patient, there is only so many they can hoard.

Fyi, precursors are dropping in price already. The worst is over. Either some people gave up (for now), or the demand is getting more filled and filled. The 1200g buy/sell listing tresshold is dying slowly on the most popular legendaries.

Just have patience. Remember last two weeks had no living story. AND At same time a boost to legendarieS. Lots of people focused (me inclusive) on legendary, because of lack of other content.

And i have to agree with wanze. Buy listings are the main ‘exchange’ source for legendaries. Took me some time, but i saw 5 buy listings (highest) go away in primetime. There is also the people who extremely undercut the lowest sell listing, sometimes only 20-50g above the highest buy listings, and those go away in no time also.

Another observation, EU/American primetimes, INCREASE the buy listings (logic, since more people online, checking their listing, and putting it highest again). However after NA prime (and before EU primetime), there’s a void. Some days, that void causes 50-150g cheaper precursor prices. I got my precursor that way. At evening it went up again 70g. Patience is a virtue.

Prices can ONLY go down people. Why? Demand can only go down, almost nobody will make legendary now twice. And there’s still the ‘maybe’ precursor svavenger hunt to come, and with that in mind, I think precursors can only stay stable/fall back to their original price before feature patch.

Oddly enough two of my Dawns that I listed about 2 hours apart were sold within 5 minutes of posting. I undercut by only 5g.

Dawns spike is over. That’s why they sell. There’s superior many listed, and the buy order are back to normal. That means the ‘inbetween’ zone (between buy and sell order) is locked and pretty much the sweet spot now. Thus if you undercut you will sell fast. Still 5g undercut is a risk. If you did it 3 days ago when the 1200g Dawn price spike happened you would never have sold it. I undercut 30g (under 1100g). 1 hour later 8 undercuts no less all withint 1g reach of each other. 6 hours later noone of them sold. Bad luck i guess. I cut my losses and relisted 1000g. Luckely it sold, cause it dropped below now. Yesterday there were 23 listed Dawns. There 23 people that CANNOT (and probably don’t want to anymore) undercut you anymore. If you order was reversed, those 23 listings, would be competing with you making you impossible to relist. The price hike failed, and the rush of listings, basically ‘locked the price’ into a sweet spot, meaning selling now is easy. Same for the LEgend. Sell between (anywhere) listing price and sell price and it will sell 90% of time. Few days ago, with price spike, there was more speculation (and risk) involved.

I didn’t know Dawn went that high, now I feel robbed ;’(

Robbed? i take two dawns any day, even if I have to sell them for 500g each

Vol.7601:

I didn’t know Dawn went that high, now I feel robbed ;’(

Why do you feel robbed? At the time you listed them, they weren’t that high. That’s all that mattered. You still presumably made a pretty penny.

Lankybrit.4598:

Vol.7601:

I didn’t know Dawn went that high, now I feel robbed ;’(

Why do you feel robbed? At the time you listed them, they weren’t that high. That’s all that mattered. You still presumably made a pretty penny.

well based on the what i know from the forums, he basically probably invested in them some time ago and was waiting for the right time to sell, he stepped away from the game i guess, so he missed dawns current peak.

That said he probably isnt that upset he made some sort of smiley after he said it

phys.7689:

Lankybrit.4598:

Vol.7601:

I didn’t know Dawn went that high, now I feel robbed ;’(

Why do you feel robbed? At the time you listed them, they weren’t that high. That’s all that mattered. You still presumably made a pretty penny.

well based on the what i know from the forums, he basically probably invested in them some time ago and was waiting for the right time to sell, he stepped away from the game i guess, so he missed dawns current peak.

That said he probably isnt that upset he made some sort of smiley after he said it

Nah, I forged them after using up 13 stacks of inscriptions accumulated since 6 months ago. Took me about 5-6 hours of forging and I ended up with those two.

If Dawn’s price was 1100g weeks ago, I can understand. But if it’s a few days ago I feel like I wasted an extra 400g…

Axialbloom.8109:

Bread.7516:

juno.1840:

Using lame RL “entitlement” arguments just shows your lack of understanding of the situation….I’m not stating that everyone deserves or is entitled to a precursor. What I’m stating is the entitlement is not unexpected as Players are also Customers and they purchased a game which contains such items.

I understand the situation very well and how it developed, but understanding it does not mean I have to be nice about it nor do I have to be empathetic. It was a jab at the situation which is not uncommon, and the analogy fits since GW2 has a capitalist-like economy by design. Some people don’t like it – oh well.

I will act empathetic if it is to my benefit, otherwise I do with it as I please.

If you only ‘act empathetic’ when it is to your benefit, then you are never empathetic.

+1

A lack of empathy is a major problem we have in the US. I’m glad this is a game forum where it’s relatively harmless to be an kitten hat.