Guild Wars 2

I have saved lot of t5 crafting materials, like 2 stacks of each and i have bought like 1 stack of the sentinel’s rare inscriptions. My idea is to make rare weapons, daggers or GS’s probably and take my chance on MF. At MF, usually 1 of 5 forges result of higher tier item. So, each 16 rare weapons could produce 1 exotic. I want to ask, if we put aside precursors – does all the exotics you can obtain have the same chance? So far i have forged like 2500 major runes and i think there is same probability to get any superior rune, including the dungeon runes. Is it the same situation with the weapons ? Does anyone got rare skin exotic weapon by forging 4 rares?
Still cant decide … should i sell the weapons or forge them.

Just sell them you’re prolly gonna make more than enough money to buy whatever you need.

IMO better go for the safe money instead of risking to lose everything at RNG

I believe it’s the same chance at all possible exotics. now, not all exotics are possible (I’m pretty sure things like Arachnophobia are not)
what you describe is rarely profitable unless you include the very valuable items. it might cost you 2g per exotic you get, and 50% of the exotics you get will be worth less than 1g, 40% will be worth 1-2g, 9% will be worth 2-10g, 1% will be worth 10-600g. (totally made up numbers)
if you’re only relying on the less than 10g items, you would expect about 1.3g return for that 2g investment. with the precursors, this jumps to 2.3g return on average. again, totally made-up numbers, but they illustrate the point.

In my experience it is much easier/faster to sell rares than exotics. Depending on how you use/invest your gold it might be better to sell the rares and do other things with the profits than gambling for exotics. Unless you are gambling for precursor of course.

Khisanth, it is about selling 500-600 rare weapons. I cant just put them in the TP, because i will have to relist half of them later due to undercut. I will have to make and sell them 50 by 50, that would take like 2 weeks.
Mystic, if Arachnophobia is impossible to be output of forging 4 rares, than all the weapons which are obtainable by MF recipes are impossible too. Thats lower significantly the average price of any exotic you can get. If we add the dungeon and karma weapons (i’m pretty sure they are obtainable from MF), which are account bound and worth 0 gold … then a precursor will be the only output that can lead such a gamble to profit.
What about destroyer weapons ? Can you get one ?
As i said i have forged many rare runes. Back in the days it was profitable. I think it still is, but the amount of clicking it requires makes it not worth. There is 51 different types of exotic runes you can sell and 6 more dungeon runes you cant. Any of the 57 runes have the same probability, thats why, with a large enough sample you can average the price of superior rune. It is 1g 00s 40c now. Consider you got one exotic from each 5 forges, than for 16 major runes you can expect to get a rune which average value is 1g or 85s after the taxes. So … any lower than 85s you pay for 16 rare runes any bigger profit you can make forging them. Thats why the price of the most common rare runes is ~5s.
So, i’m simple asking – does this tactic is applicable to the weapons? Let say i forge daggers. Let say there is 50 types (not precursor) of different exotic daggers you can get, by forging 4 rare ones. Do all the 50 have same probability (2% chance) or the more valuable and rare they are, the less possible would be to get one?

Undercutting seems a lot worse for exotic than rares, probably because more people are able/willing to buy the rares to gamble so they move faster.

I don’t think you can get the dungeon weapons. Karma is possible but I am not aware of any rare or exotic weapon available for karma.

Since other crafted weapons are possible and destroyer weapons are crafted(corrupted ones as well), I would assume you can also get destroyer weapons from it.

From throwing in rare daggers I’ve gotten back rares, the pearl exotics and some named exotics.