Guild Wars 2

so as I’m going for my ascended, I dread the costs of all these exotics I have to make to get to 500 -

It costs 7 gold to make those pearl weapons – and someone is putting them up for 2 gold – it’s across the board with all pearl items also. You could sell the individual mats for more – and I was keeping a close eye on a particular weapon – I watched as someone added 7 of them back to back because the prices got too high.

no reasonable explanation for someone making 7 of the same type / style of weapon back to back – nor is there a reason for all pearl weapons to cost 5 gold less than what it costs to make. if someone was maxing their crafting – it would make sense to discover new items for better xp- not make 7 of them in succession because one item got too pricey and low on stock.

- just rechecked – not all of them, but a ton of them are far cheaper than what it costs to make – if it weren’t for observing the way this item was instantly stocked – I would have just thought it was a supply and demand thing – not a popular weapon actually being nerfed in price – to an extreme.

It is really difficult to earn money through crafting.
Most people craft things because they need to increase their level in a specific craftmanship. Since they usually don’t know what to do of the crafted item, they sell it at the usual market price.

The trick is that A LOT of people need to increase their level in a craftmanship, so the demand for raw materials is really high. On the contrary, the demand for crafted exotic weapons is really low, because even if you salvage them you won’t get back all the materials needed to craft it.

You’re right, there is no reasonable explanation for one person to make multiples of one and then sell them for several gold less than cost. It is reasonable for many people, maybe hundreds of people, to be making these for exp and some of them to be selling them on the TP.

There was a long thread recently where numerous people said that if they gathered the mats, then those mats had no value, no opportunity costs, and using them when you make gear made it for free. That sort of thinking will cause people to underprice the value of the items they make and sell. Those people who decided to sell probably weren’t considering the costs of making them, just like the people in that thread.

my theory is someone is duping – because it makes more sense to sell mats to buy items for weapons you haven’t made yet. you would make double the gold selling the mats…. I’m watching it stock up now as I type.

the item I was watching is for a popular wvw build.

= 3 more were added in a row – 2 at a lower price and 1 at the price just above lower – it’s the same person – if it were many servers – it would be improbable have this pattern.

Pearl gear occurs naturally outside crafting, but yeah, players are probably crafting from mats they hoarded through play to get up to 500, and are selling the gear just to get as much as they can for the byproduct of their work. Ascended great is the target, this exotic junk is merely a bothersome byproduct for them.

There is more to this story than pearl drops and crafting for levels, but those are both major factors.
//Portable Corpse

there is a sudden 7 gold price drop on this item. and the item is 5 gold below the cost of what it costs to make. there is something not right about this particular incident.

Ricky.4706:

there is a sudden 7 gold price drop on this item. and the item is 5 gold below the cost of what it costs to make. there is something not right about this particular incident.

Which item?

It’s hard for people to comment specifically without knowing which one you are referring to.

assassin’s pearl carver

and i just watched 4 more added in a row for an even lower price heh!!- watching it as I post this.

now look up the price of the assassin’s orichalcum imbued inscription 8 gold for just the inscription. the assassin’s pearl carver is listed as of this post at 2 gold.

While that one is fluctuating a lot, all the assassin pearl types are in the same price range, about 2 gold or so, and all are underpriced. http://www.gw2spidy.com/search/Assassin%27s%20pearl?recipes=

not all – there is a sudden drop of 7 gold …which happened early today – I just started watching it last night because the price was so high at 19 gold – then the 10’s and 9’s and suddenly 2.

If you look at the graph for that one, there was a sudden spike but then it returned to its previous value. http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/46269

The one day graph shows the spike and the return to regular value closer.

that’s because it was down to 14 pieces. – someone jumped in and nerfed the numbers – it was not just someone trying to get their crafting up – that item is in demand and sells fast.

What I see when I look at the graph over time is it hovering consistently about 1.5 to 2 gold, except for the occasional spikes. When the spikes are over it returns to the low base price. The price fluctuations seem to gave been more extreme for that one for some reason, but the price of around 2 gold has been the average price for a while.

and if it weren’t for me spotting how fast it happened, it would stay under the radar.

The graph is nice – but I saw it in real time.

without a doubt what I saw happen to that item is not a normal sales trend. it’s either someone trying to keep the prices low or someone trying to sell something fast that’s in demand for quick gold.

What value does someone have in selling a bunch of items several gold below cost? What do they gain from it? You haven’t suggested how this could possibly benefit a person.

My feeling is, these are being made by people who aren’t considering how much it costs to make an item. Many people feel that the mats they gather have no worth. They think those mats are free and they don’t count the costs when they use them to make an item. If they make a weapon that has ‘no value’ because they made it from mats they gathered then if they sell it for 2 gold, they think they have made 2 gold profit.

I think this is a more likely explanation that people deliberately selling items below cost just to keep the price of the item below cost.

I’m an expert in debunking silly conspiracy threads. Allow me to explain what happened.

When you want to craft Ascended gear, you must level your crafting level to 500. In order to do this, you MUST craft Exotic items up to lv 450. Due to this, you’ll normally have an excess amount of Exotics that you don’t want.

Here’s the part you may not understand until you’ve been in our shoes. We spend a lot of money to make those useless Exotics. The choice we have at that point is to either Salvage them for Dark Matter, or sell them to recoup part of our expenses. When you do the latter, you take a huge loss if you want to sell quickly.

In my case, I salvaged enough Exotics to get over 60 Dark Matter. I don’t need anymore, so now my only choice is to sell on the TP. Because the Exotics I crafted may not sell, I have to either fill Buy Orders, or place them at a price low enough that will make people want to buy them.

So what you’re seeing isn’t hacks or dupes. It’s basically impatient sellers, such as myself, who’ll take massive losses to get back at least some Gold.

what value ? making quick gold. if the dupe theory is correct – they are duping one item – and that’s why they aren’t selling it in mats.

40 orichalcum ore to make that costs 2.1gold
5 ecto to make that costs 1.74gold
30 ancient logs to make that costs 1.87 gold
5 claws to make that costs – 1.5 gold

the carver is listed at 2gold.

the random players theory just doesn’t add up in bulk.

Ricky.4706:

what value ? making quick gold. if the dupe theory is correct – they are duping one item – and that’s why they aren’t selling it in mats.

40 orichalcum ore to make that costs 2.1gold
5 ecto to make that costs 1.74gold
30 ancient logs to make that costs 1.87 gold
5 claws to make that costs – 75 silver.

the carver is listed at 2gold.

the random players theory just doesn’t add up in bulk.

Ahem…

Smooth Penguin.5294:

I’m an expert in debunking silly conspiracy threads. Allow me to explain what happened.

When you want to craft Ascended gear, you must level your crafting level to 500. In order to do this, you MUST craft Exotic items up to lv 450. Due to this, you’ll normally have an excess amount of Exotics that you don’t want.

Here’s the part you may not understand until you’ve been in our shoes. We spend a lot of money to make those useless Exotics. The choice we have at that point is to either Salvage them for Dark Matter, or sell them to recoup part of our expenses. When you do the latter, you take a huge loss if you want to sell quickly.

In my case, I salvaged enough Exotics to get over 60 Dark Matter. I don’t need anymore, so now my only choice is to sell on the TP. Because the Exotics I crafted may not sell, I have to either fill Buy Orders, or place them at a price low enough that will make people want to buy them.

So what you’re seeing isn’t hacks or dupes. It’s basically impatient sellers, such as myself, who’ll take massive losses to get back at least some Gold.

i showed the math. – and the erratic timing. – obviously this is supposed to be considered normal.

Ricky.4706:

i showed the math. – and the erratic timing. – obviously this is supposed to be considered normal.

What math is needed? You can craft Exotics for free too you know. Should I show you a snapshot of my bank?

In any case, there’s no conspiracy here. Just because you think it’s expensive and unaffordable, doesn’t mean someone else is willing to pay the price to max their crafting for Ascended.

no, I see whats going on. no sense in debating about it further.

Ricky.4706:

no, I see whats going on. no sense in debating about it further.

I’m glad you understand now.

Ricky.4706:

not all – there is a sudden drop of 7 gold …which happened early today – I just started watching it last night because the price was so high at 19 gold – then the 10’s and 9’s and suddenly 2.

As others already mentioned, it is not the 2g price tag that is uncommon, its the 19g spike that happened yesterday.

The spike most probably happened because someone bought out most of the stock and didnt check, how much of those swords were actually listed at 2g.

Most of the pearl weapons bought on the tp are being dumped into the mystic forge and not being equipped.

I hadn’t considered Smooth Penguin’s version of events because I’m so desperate for Dark Matter that I don’t sell any exotics now, but he’s right. People need to craft large numbers of exotics for level 500 crafting and if you don’t need Dark Matter then it’s better to sell for 2 gold and recoup the costs as much as possible. When you combine this with people who sell without considering the cost of crafting, it keeps the prices artificially low.

Astral Projections.7320:

I hadn’t considered Smooth Penguin’s version of events because I’m so desperate for Dark Matter that I don’t sell any exotics now, but he’s right. People need to craft large numbers of exotics for level 500 crafting and if you don’t need Dark Matter then it’s better to sell for 2 gold and recoup the costs as much as possible. When you combine this with people who sell without considering the cost of crafting, it keeps the prices artificially low.

People need Dark Matter. But there’s a point where the person needs to look at how much they need, and how much money you lose each time you salvage a lv 80 Exotic. Unless Anet brings out something that requires 250 Dark Matter, reselling or forging are the only options.

Edit – Now that I think about it, maybe getting 250 Dark Matter wouldn’t be so bad. You never know what Anet will bring out that requires insane amounts of rare mats.

you cant calculate the craftings mats to get the value from pearl weapons

in this game items have identical stats and value comes most time from the shiny skin OR the rarity

noone care how much you pay to make a pearl weapon when he can buy same stats in tp for lower price and most time better skins

noone ever will give you 7g for a weapon when he can buy same for 1g – thats the reason why pearl weapons cheaper in tp than the crafting cost

The way I see it, these items are not being sold at less than their value — their value is acutally 2g. The crafting materials are worth 7g. And the levels you gain from taking these materials and crafting the actual item is worth 5g.

People are not actually crafting weapons, they’re crafting levels. The weapons are just the waste byproducts. (Until you get to level 500, of course.)

As for having “enough” dark matter — don’t forget that Ascended armor is coming and I wouldn’t be surprised if you needed a whole lot of dark matter to craft one set.

Pearl exotics are one of the byproducts of throwing rare weapons into the mystic forge in an attempt to generate a precursor. Selling them for 2 gold each is in fact profitable once you take into account the value of the precursor you’re after.

Crafting for levels was only a big driver of the exotic economy immediately after the patch introducing exotic weapons, and the excess exotic weapons were sucked right back out to be fed to the forge; these days the forge/precursor market dwarfs the exotics from people crafting to 500.

John Smith.4610:

Ensign.2189:

Pearl exotics are one of the byproducts of throwing rare weapons into the mystic forge in an attempt to generate a precursor. Selling them for 2 gold each is in fact profitable once you take into account the value of the precursor you’re after.

Crafting for levels was only a big driver of the exotic economy immediately after the patch introducing exotic weapons, and the excess exotic weapons were sucked right back out to be fed to the forge; these days the forge/precursor market dwarfs the exotics from people crafting to 500.

Beat me to it! In the last 36ish hours more than 200 pearl cleaver’s have come from the mystic forge, not an insubstantial amount.

some would say this is a problem as it means that crafting will never be able to compete in providing item creation of exotics. Ascended would probably be a good thing to provide, however since even selling people the parts requires them to level to 500 its problematic.

I believe, for armor, you guys should make a final recipe that can be done in the forge. Requiring slightly more materials, and a vision crystal (the part each player has to earn themselves) This way people are not forced t craft for best in slot, ascended still eats massive items, and people who want to craft can provide a marketable service to those that dont want to level crafting to 500.

That aside, there should probably be some items whose primary creation is mostly intentional. Many items have large sources for their creation which are random. aside from ascended, crafting is often the worst way to get something.

another possibility is having a recipe for precursors with a higher output, but no chance of creating random exotics, or creating account bound exotics

Ensign.2189:

Pearl exotics are one of the byproducts of throwing rare weapons into the mystic forge in an attempt to generate a precursor. Selling them for 2 gold each is in fact profitable once you take into account the value of the precursor you’re after.

Crafting for levels was only a big driver of the exotic economy immediately after the patch introducing exotic weapons, and the excess exotic weapons were sucked right back out to be fed to the forge; these days the forge/precursor market dwarfs the exotics from people crafting to 500.

its still not profitabe, but it mitigates your losses while attempting precursor. precursor is a 100% gamble.

assuming
1/6 attemps gives you an exotic
1/1000 attempts with rares give you a precursor
31 silver per rare

you go from 930 to 596 gold on average.
but thats the average, a great many will fall outside that, and some precursors arent even worth 596 gold. if its for profit you also have to assume a bltc fee of 10% which means you need to charge 662 just toddddd1w break even.

so yeah overall, still not profitable for the average joe.

then the huntsman, artificer and weaponsmith crafting is a waste of time. Why bother building up that trade if you are better off selling mats and getting the items at a fraction of the cost ? it’s just not worth it and yet another part of the game to avoid.

ascended items are also a waste of time, the stat difference isn’t that great, the skins aren’t interesting, and ever since I started doing it, it’s been nothing but grind – i’m almost done but had I known all this I would have rather kept the gold and just bought enough to play what i wanted to play – wvw.

this is no doubt a problem in the game when things lose their enjoyment / progress value.

after I saw the price drop 7 gold on the black lion, i don’t trust it anymore – no matter what the reason – no matter how the items got there , the fact that it devalues another part game – is not a challenge but a flat out “you can’t have fun doing that anymore”

it’s like taking out tons of loans to go to school, graduate and be jobless and in debt because someone took what you do and pulled a rabbit out of a mystic hat – it’s a joke, and a bad one at that.

phys.7689:

assuming
1/6 attemps gives you an exotic
1/1000 attempts with rares give you a precursor
31 silver per rare

you go from 930 to 596 gold on average.
but thats the average, a great many will fall outside that, and some precursors arent even worth 596 gold. if its for profit you also have to assume a bltc fee of 10% which means you need to charge 662 just toddddd1w break even.

so yeah overall, still not profitable for the average joe.

This calculation is only correct if you destroy whatever comes out of the MF except precursors

Narrenbart.5182:

phys.7689:

assuming
1/6 attemps gives you an exotic
1/1000 attempts with rares give you a precursor
31 silver per rare

you go from 930 to 596 gold on average.
but thats the average, a great many will fall outside that, and some precursors arent even worth 596 gold. if its for profit you also have to assume a bltc fee of 10% which means you need to charge 662 just toddddd1w break even.

so yeah overall, still not profitable for the average joe.

This calculation is only correct if you destroy whatever comes out of the MF except precursors

the calculation of 930 is if you dont use the exotics, the calculation of 596 is assuming you get a 2 gold exotic every 6 attempts with rares, so its assuming you sell the two gold item . Its an estimation, rares dont always cost 31 silver, your odds arent always 1 out of 6, sometimes you get exotics cheaper than 2 gold some times more expensive. but it gives you a real picture based on average values.

Ricky.4706:

then the huntsman, artificer and weaponsmith crafting is a waste of time.

And you’ll be singing a different tune when Anet releases the Precursor crafting later on. It’s almost guaranteed that part of the process will require one of these to be at max levels.

I just levelled my weaponsmithing to 500 and created an ascended GS. While I initially spent about 40-50g to get to level 450, the next 18 levels I exclusively refined ascended resources like bloodstone bricks, and deldrimor steel ingots. After that I took the resources I’d gathered over the month and crafted my way to 500 and also an ascended. You could throw the exotics you get in the mystic forge, feeling lucky i did that myself, but I wasn’t especially lucky. The best is to get some mystic salvage kits and salvage them. That way you get exotic sigils which can sell for up to 5-6g, you also get dark matter needed for the ascended. From level 468 to 500 and mats to create the ascended weapon I spent about 60g btw.

The crafted exotics like stated above are quite common due to them being obtainable in the mystic forge. Not however that you can earn much more by simply salvaging these.

Also when you reach level 500 you can craft certain ascended resources which sell for considerable amounts of gold;)

Ricky.4706:

then the huntsman, artificer and weaponsmith crafting is a waste of time. Why bother building up that trade if you are better off selling mats and getting the items at a fraction of the cost ?

There are many things you can craft which will yield a profit over the cost of mats.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/crafting/1 – Hunts
http://www.gw2spidy.com/crafting/2 – Arti
http://www.gw2spidy.com/crafting/3 – Weapon

You also get XP while crafting. Level 1-20 scroll + all crafts to 400 (use ) =’s level 78. Idk about you, but I can make that gold far faster than I could get another character to 78.

phys.7689:

Narrenbart.5182:

phys.7689:

assuming
1/6 attemps gives you an exotic
1/1000 attempts with rares give you a precursor
31 silver per rare

you go from 930 to 596 gold on average.
but thats the average, a great many will fall outside that, and some precursors arent even worth 596 gold. if its for profit you also have to assume a bltc fee of 10% which means you need to charge 662 just toddddd1w break even.

so yeah overall, still not profitable for the average joe.

This calculation is only correct if you destroy whatever comes out of the MF except precursors

the calculation of 930 is if you dont use the exotics, the calculation of 596 is assuming you get a 2 gold exotic every 6 attempts with rares, so its assuming you sell the two gold item . Its an estimation, rares dont always cost 31 silver, your odds arent always 1 out of 6, sometimes you get exotics cheaper than 2 gold some times more expensive. but it gives you a real picture based on average values.

The only problem you seem to miss is the fact that your numbers (the odds) aren’t correct

the mystic fountain drops shouldn’t compete vs crafters.

I don’t believe the mystic forge has much to do with it. Look at the history:

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/15314

We see a precipitous drop on September 13th. At the same time we say a rise in the materials used to craft them.

http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19701
http://www.gw2spidy.com/item/19725

What could have happened around September 13th to make people create a bunch of exotics they didn’t want…. hmm… I’m at a loss.

The mystic forge may help keep prices down, but really the culprit is the need to forge a bunch of items you don’t want to get crafting to 500.

phys.7689:

its still not profitabe, but it mitigates your losses while attempting precursor. precursor is a 100% gamble.

The odds are not as bad as you’re saying, and you’re overpaying for your rares. If you craft your own rares there’s still around a 30% profit margin on Daggers, Greatswords, Swords, and Staves; Hammers have been hovering around a 15% margin. That’s pulling instantaneous data from spidy; you can squeeze more out of it if you know how to price the respective exotics to sell at their peaks.