Guild Wars 2

Okay, this is not an argument. I am not an economist and I’m new to MMOs, so I have no idea what the plans are. I’m actually curious, and I thought people might have some ideas about this. So, two questions:

1) Will there be a levelling off period with gold to gems eventually, or will it go up indefinitely? Put into the term I am thinking of, will we reach a stage where T3 armour will cost something like a few dollars? Will we also reach a stage where grinding for gold is completely impractical, due to the conversion rate? Relatedly, is this a problem?

2) Given inflation is what it is, what is going to happen to current gold sinks? When orichalcum axes and T3 armour are trivial to buy with gold, what happens? Do the prices get raised at some point, or can we expect new tiers to be added to materials and armour sets as time goes on?

As I say, I’m not an economist, but there was a thread in general discussion about the price of T3 and how expensive it was. It just seemed that there were many reasons for it to be expensive, but they were all going to be irrelevant in a few months.

1) In theory at some point it will be equally attractive to buy gems for cash to convert into gold as to take gold and convert them into gems. Right now there is more of the second than the first so up goes the exchange rates.

2) There are a lot of gold destruction already in the game. Currently new gold is only created in small amounts directly via drops or relatively small amounts by selling to vendors. Remember selling to another player isn’t creating any gold but destroying some while moving the rest between players. We have outright item destruction with salvage and the MF slot machine. Then there’s armor repair, waypoint transit fees and certain crafting materials available only through vendors, which destroys gold.

Note that Gems to Gold and Gold to Gems don’t create or destroy gold, it simply moves it to and from the exchanges coffers into or out of general circulation.

As to gem prices, there is a cap, in that there is a limited amount and a base price for 100 gems. We don’t know however how many gems are available, which is a big part of calculating the cap, we also don’t know exactly what the minimum disparity between buy and sell prices might look like at any cap. It might very well be that at some point the limit would be 25g per 100. There might even be some mathematical genius that could take all the data and get a rough calculation.

As far as item costs, Anet could do a lot of different things to change the market (and have already). So it would be pure speculation as to what it might look like down the road.

CrakittenestAuto.9108:

Okay, this is not an argument. I am not an economist and I’m new to MMOs, so I have no idea what the plans are. I’m actually curious, and I thought people might have some ideas about this. So, two questions:

1) Will there be a levelling off period with gold to gems eventually, or will it go up indefinitely? Put into the term I am thinking of, will we reach a stage where T3 armour will cost something like a few dollars? Will we also reach a stage where grinding for gold is completely impractical, due to the conversion rate? Relatedly, is this a problem?

2) Given inflation is what it is, what is going to happen to current gold sinks? When orichalcum axes and T3 armour are trivial to buy with gold, what happens? Do the prices get raised at some point, or can we expect new tiers to be added to materials and armour sets as time goes on?

As I say, I’m not an economist, but there was a thread in general discussion about the price of T3 and how expensive it was. It just seemed that there were many reasons for it to be expensive, but they were all going to be irrelevant in a few months.

1. The way the system is set up, it is impossible for it to infinitely increase. A change in the Gem/Gold exchange encourages movement to the opposite direction, so the system will eventually reach equilibrium. For example, if the Gold/Gem ratio increases, it encourages more Gem → Gold transactions, which is in the opposite direction.

Where the equilibrium is though, none of us really knows.

2. There are already gold sinks which scale with inflation. The TP tax and the Gem/Gold ratio are both gold sinks which scale with inflation. Just like #1, since inflation causes its gold sinks to also increase, it is impossible that it will be infinite. But again, no one really knows the equilibrium.

Okay, thank you for the responses. To reaffirm the last question then. Can we expect inflation and/or gems to gold to eventually turn T3 armour (and ori axes etc.) into something fairly common? Have other MMOs countered this in any way, or simply added new tiers?

I guess this question could also be asked about karma items too, though without the additional question of gems.

1/ There’s a point where gold>gems and gems>gold are equally attractive. Where that point lies is not possible to predict, but I always claimed it to be above 2gp per 100gems. I think 4gp/100gems is a pretty hard limit given normal paygrades and most optimal farming (COF1)

2/ The entire reason for nerfing things like COF1, Plinx, DR … is to keep inflation under control. If inflation runs rampant in this game, gems>gold will be the only valid transaction in the long term which is very, very bad for games. Less inflation leads to more stable gem conversion rates which people can trust.

In the future, the gem exchange will flatline with minor spikes. I guess that’s about half a year from now.

The things in cash shop will never be fairly common. If inflation happens, and people are able to “farm much more cash in orr event”, gem price will spike too. So those will never be cheap.

Like you said, if inflation did happen, you will be able to get T3 armor much easier. But that is the only thing that you’ll be able to get much easier. Everything else “which is not fix price” will still be expensive.

But like the guy above me says, there probably will be nerf coming, there probably will be more gold sink coming, no one knows.

The funny thing is GW2 economy look exactly like another game I played before, Atlantica Online. Funny thing, that is a nexon game too. Funny thing GW2 hires someone from Nexon to be their cash shop manager. I think beside the in game economy there’s some real life economy going on. And the in game economy is some what influenced by Anet trying to make money.

That being said, I think Anet at least try not to upset their player base off too much. Those other f2p games I played is doing exactly the same what GW2 is doing. Just much worse. GW2 is trying to to make money but not “upset” their player too much. I think Anet at least try to retain their player. Other f2p games try to milk their player before everyone quit.

The exchange rate continues its trend in the direction Arenanet wants it to go. Buy gems to covert to gold. I think that once enough gold is in the system they’ll introduce items in the gem store to siphon the gold out of the system.

John Smith.4610:

1. The best way to think about prices in senses like this over time is in terms we economists call Real. There is an exchange value between gems and Real value of gold. The real value essentially means some base purchasing power of gold, irrelevant of how much gold it actually requires. We might say 1 Real gold is what it takes to buy a stack of copper ore, then we look over time and see, how much has that changed, and adjust how we look at it relative to the change.

Are there certain characteristics that you would look for when deciding what you would use as the measure of purchasing power? For example, would 10 globs of ecto be better or worse than using a stack of copper? I’m guessing it would be worse because of how we get ectos, but I don’t know.

John Smith.4610:

Preferably you use a bundle of goods all tied together, that haven’t been modified by design and found equilibrium pricing quickly.

That makes sense – it seems obvious to use a bundle now that I know. Thanks for explaining.

Pandemoniac.4739:

John Smith.4610:

Preferably you use a bundle of goods all tied together, that haven’t been modified by design and found equilibrium pricing quickly.

That makes sense – it seems obvious to use a bundle now that I know. Thanks for explaining.

I’d be curious to know if that real value of gold is something that seems on par with the real time it takes to acquire?

I ask, since it seems to me a good number of folks are what i would consider at poverty level. I’m basing this on what i’ve heard as complaints about the game overall, obviously no data to back it up. There just seems to be a funneling of folks more interested in luxury goods complaining on rate of acquisition, in as much as people mentioning it took them weeks of play time to gather/earn enough for exotics @ 80.

munkiman.3068:

John Smith.4610:

Preferably you use a bundle of goods all tied together, that haven’t been modified by design and found equilibrium pricing quickly.

Pandemoniac.4739:

That makes sense – it seems obvious to use a bundle now that I know. Thanks for explaining.

I’d be curious to know if that real value of gold is something that seems on par with the real time it takes to acquire?

Well I think that’s a separate question from measuring inflation. The “work” to create a good should be part of the price if the price is at equilibrium. If you bundle goods together it should smooth out small variances and give a good measure of gold value to “work”. The exact value doesn’t matter I think, just how it changes over time.

I ask, since it seems to me a good number of folks are what i would consider at poverty level. I’m basing this on what i’ve heard as complaints about the game overall, obviously no data to back it up. There just seems to be a funneling of folks more interested in luxury goods complaining on rate of acquisition, in as much as people mentioning it took them weeks of play time to gather/earn enough for exotics @ 80.

Well, I think if you look at my bank balance, I’m at poverty level in gold, but I haven’t had much pain outfitting my alts. When I switch up my builds, I buy exotic weapons and masterwork armor and trinkets and upgrade a bit at a time with gold/karma/crafting. My alt only suffers from me learning the build, not from a lack of exotic gear.

It may take folks a long time to earn enough gold to buy a full set of the most popular exotics, but you don’t have to have a full set the second you hit 80, you don’t have to have level 80 exotics (level 75-78s are a good value I find) and you don’t have to buy it all with gold. I don’t see not being able to buy a full set of exotics with a couple of days worth of earnings as a problem that needs fixing.

Yeah, i guess my point is i see more and more people getting turned off by the amount of work versus reward in video games. If i have to spend days and in some cases weeks to gear my toon to look a certain way, it’s rather unfortunate that it feels like work. I can understand of a point of view of maybe the unemployed, but working all day and coming home to feel like i’m working at a video games get’s pretty tiresome. I’m seeing this among my peers, with basically the same fundamental statements.

I actually don’t want to be poor in a game, I’d like my challenges to be rewarded. One example is how much harder arah is for the same (if not worse in some cases) rewards. People simply don’t want to put in 1.15 hours into the rewards you can get in 15 minutes doing other dungeon paths. But, that’s really only one example.

I took a new toon and just played him, keeping a decent track of what it cost to play versus what i wanted for him as i progressed and i have to say, it’s actually much worse than when i leveled my first toon. If i wasn’t supplementing his income with my level 80 earnings, he’d be geared poorly and struggling through content.

I can understand that a player doesn’t “need” to do x, and that’s always nice. But when the goals are x to get y, if it feels like a chore, then many people will simply not embark on the journey after so many play hours. That’s what i’m seeing with gw2.

munkiman.3068:

I took a new toon and just played him, keeping a decent track of what it cost to play versus what i wanted for him as i progressed and i have to say, it’s actually much worse than when i leveled my first toon. If i wasn’t supplementing his income with my level 80 earnings, he’d be geared poorly and struggling through content.

I can understand that a player doesn’t “need” to do x, and that’s always nice. But when the goals are x to get y, if it feels like a chore, then many people will simply not embark on the journey after so many play hours. That’s what i’m seeing with gw2.

I understand the feeling… that’s why I’m a game hopper. I think think the first time through, you’re rewarded more with novelty than more concrete rewards. With the alt, you’re more focused on the gear, and you move more quickly through the content because you’re familiar with it. You’re also more aware of everything that is available, which changes how you value things. I think the reason that your new character required money is because you’re a more sophisticated player than you were the first time through, and not because the economy is worse.

I was so completely done with D3 a few months ago. I’m intrigued by some of the changes, so I decided to roll a fresh hard core character that is living off what they can find (Iron man), and I’m enjoying it again. The economy is worse than it was, and most of the things I didn’t like about it are still there, but time away and a fresh start have made it interesting again. I’m sure when I hit inferno, it will become work and I’ll move back to GW.

My point I guess is that this isn’t a game design problem. There are folks that enjoy the things that aren’t working for you. If the game has gotten to be a chore, the easiest thing to do is take a break until something is added that looks like fun. GW is great that way; I feel confident that I can put it down for a month and not fall so far behind the curve that I can’t come back.

John Smith.4610:

Preferably you use a bundle of goods all tied together, that haven’t been modified by design and found equilibrium pricing quickly.

Is there any link/data/whatnot that we can have access to that gives us the rate at which price level has changed over time? (relative to some base point in time, maybe 1-2 months after the game was released)

I’d say that the best “bundle” of goods to compare inflation to is the cost of equipping a char with L80 exotics (or masterwork or rare or some mix in between).

Its a baseline that most characters go through in their development.

Its probably pretty involved getting to that number. Crafting vs price of drops being just at a point in time being just one complication.

Spifnar.4712:

I’d say that the best “bundle” of goods to compare inflation to is the cost of equipping a char with L80 exotics (or masterwork or rare or some mix in between).

Its a baseline that most characters go through in their development.

Its probably pretty involved getting to that number. Crafting vs price of drops being just at a point in time being just one complication.

Which type of gear? Heavy Zerker’s? I think gear would not be a good choice because the popularity of different builds and activities change the prices frequently.

My bundle would probably have wood and ore in it – I haven’t done the research to figure out the tier for each. It makes sense to me to use those as part of the bundle because they seem less entangled with other goods (the price of harvesting tools is fixed). I’ve excluded lots of items from my bundle like ectos, but I haven’t had the time to research the price history to pick other goods that might work. Are Karka shells at equilibrium yet?

Bundle example of market inflation…

Berserker’s Draconic Boots
Lowest Price to buy since release (TP): 1.27g
Cost now to buy (TP): 3.68g
Cost now to Craft (TP): 3.68g (in large part due to the cost of t6 mats)
Change in cost to craft since release (gathering materials): 0

I don’t believe the drop rate of items has changed (with the exception of ectos salvaged from rares).

Pandemoniac.4739:

Spifnar.4712:

I’d say that the best “bundle” of goods to compare inflation to is the cost of equipping a char with L80 exotics (or masterwork or rare or some mix in between).

Its a baseline that most characters go through in their development.

Its probably pretty involved getting to that number. Crafting vs price of drops being just at a point in time being just one complication.

Which type of gear? Heavy Zerker’s? I think gear would not be a good choice because the popularity of different builds and activities change the prices frequently.

How about a light, medium and heavy armor set, breaking down into components with equal parts for each t6 material. It wouldn’t be real, but it will cover most crafting materials.

marnick.4305:

Spifnar.4712:

I’d say that the best “bundle” of goods to compare inflation to is the cost of equipping a char with L80 exotics (or masterwork or rare or some mix in between).

Pandemoniac.4739:

Which type of gear? Heavy Zerker’s? I think gear would not be a good choice because the popularity of different builds and activities change the prices frequently.

How about a light, medium and heavy armor set, breaking down into components with equal parts for each t6 material. It wouldn’t be real, but it will cover most crafting materials.

I’m wondering if my understanding of what the bundle should consist of is correct. My thought was that you would want a set of goods that has stable prices that haven’t been impacted by a game balance change (butter for example would be a bad choice). I was thinking that some of the sharpening stones/oils/crystals might be good choices if you picked the right tier (the volatility in dust lately might be a problem).

Because we know that the crafting materials track the price of the finished goods very well, we can just use the raw materials in the bundle directly instead of trying to break down particular gear right? I think what’s important is that the prices are at equilibrium, and not necessarily how useful the particular good is to a player. Looking at how the players use the items is good for identifying candidates for the bundle, but I think you also have to look at the prices and make sure that they aren’t fluctuating wildly.

I would probably disregard all of the data up until maybe November. I think it took at least that long for things to stabilize as folks worked their way up to the later part of the game and got a feel for how rare and how useful/desirable different items were. Well, at least that was the time frame that I remember not being completely mystified by the prices on the TP for various things.

So my thought was to come up with a set of goods, sample their prices since November, average them into one price (or use the median I haven’t really gotten that far), plot the results and see which direction it’s going. I haven’t taken the time yet because I’m pretty sure I know what the answer is going to be. It’s more of an exercise to see if I can figure out how to do it than getting an answer I’m curious to know.