Guild Wars 2

I recommend to everyone to convert all your gems into gold because they will loose all of their value these next days with this event :

https://www.guildwars2.com/en/news/black-lion-trading-company-weekend-sales/

Why? After the announcement the gem value skyrocketed.

No, this was because of the last week-end event (The Lost Shores). Nothing to do with the one comming.

Watch closer: http://www.gw2spidy.com/gem

People just miscalculated, if you look at the very end of your graphic you can see that it’s going down to hell. After massconverting to gem people who miscalculated just realised they made a terrible bad deal.

You still didn’t explain yourself…

Yeah, you’re misinterpreting what that discount means.
Here’s an analogy: If apples go from being worth a dollar to being worth 50 cents each, that means the dollar has doubled in value there. It can get you 2 apples now!
Likewise, if the gem cost of a BL chest key goes from 90 gems per to 27 gems per, then the value of your gems are over TRIPLE what they were worth!

Getting more for the same amount of gems means gem prices will shoot up, and likely continue to shoot up or at least stay pretty high over this next weekend.

It’s simple as 2+2=4 :
The stuff at the store will be 70% cheaper so gem won’t have any value anymore

…

Actually as items that are bought with gems become “cheaper” the demand for said items will rise. 2 ways to get gems either with $$$ or gold. A fair amount of people will convert their Gold to gems to take advantage of the cheaper BLTC items thus increasing the exchange rate.

If anything convert gold to gems now before more people do so and the rate continues rising. (if you want stuff from the gem shop, that is)

I think it’s probably safe to say that the sales will be on less desirable items for most people anyway, like random buffs, or perhaps even some costumes.

I think the only things that MIGHT make people go crazy over at 70% off would be…

Minis
Skins
Keys
Dyes (though I doubt it)
Upgrades (Character, Digital, Bank, Bag)

And I can’t see them dropping those by 70%, except maybe skins and dyes. I know personally, I would buy like crazy if they dropped any of the upgrades in price. I might invest in minis too.

you’re so clueless op

Gem’s are going to continue to go up in value until after the event. More people will convert Gold to Gems to buy the items which will decrease the $$ value of gold and increase the gem value, just like the first event. Then an interesting happens, there is far less gold in the economy so the buying power of gold starts to increase and the pendulum swings back as people spend $ to buy gems and to then convert to gold. I don’t think it will be as severe this time as last time but it is going to happen.

If you are looking to make gold off of Gems, you should have bought in before the event, it’s too late now. However, if you stocked up pre-event, you’ll probably want to sell midday on Friday if you want to get out at the top.

And you heard it here first, Chocolate is going to 20c per min.

Is it even possible to make money by buying gems with gold and then selling them for gold? I can see where if you bought gems early enough and sell them now you would make a profit but then to buy the amount you sold back you would need more gold than you got from buying unless the price were to drop like 30%. At the peak of the halloween spike selling gems for gold net almost 85s per 100 gems. To buy them back at the lowest point after you would spend about 9s less per 100. Is the gamble that the price will fall enough to justify such little profit? You would To make 1g at that time you would have to have sold and rebought over 1,100 gems. If one bought that 1,100 gems at that lowest price and sold them at the latest price gw2spidey showed at the time of my posting this they would make about 2.5g. But then the price to buy gems has to drop under 99s per 100 in order to buy back the amount you sold without losing any coin. Considering we all know there is going to be a wintersday event I don’t see it very likely to do that and would be a big gamble. In fact I’m shocked the price even dipped low enough for that to happen since until then the other peaks followed by a low point were never far enough apart to make a profit and buy back in.

The return is lower (5-10%) but it is possible, it makes more since if you have at least a 1000g to invest. Additionally, it’s a good way to hedge inflation if you don’t plan on playing for awhile.

That is so not going to happen.

It’s either you are trying to release false information and benfit yourself by getting cheap gem with your gold, or you just don’t understand economic.

I assume what you trying to tell us is the discount will allow player to buy items with lesser gems if they only need 30gems for something that used to be 100gems, therefore they will exchange only what they need and lead to decrease of gem demend.

But there are 2 things that you ignore:
1st, this event will decrease the supply of gems since most of the sellers are gong to hold up their’s and see what they can get, which even with the same demend, but not likely (I am sure even those players who never exchange gold for gems will want to get some this weekend), the exchange rate is going to increase.

2nd, Items cheaper doesn’t mean you don’t want more, especially if they are useful.
Lets say you have 100gems and used to be able to buy 1 key only, now it’s 70% off and 30gems for 1, will you still buy 1 and save the 70 gems or buy 3 and still have 10 gems left? I know I may even exchange gold for the extra 20gems so I can get 4 keys

so I don’t see why the gem price will drop at all~if it does I am happy to use all my gold to exchange it ^.^

HellFire.7346:

I recommend to everyone to convert all your gems into gold because they will loose all of their value these next days

Really?

There will be two effects…
1. People will pay less for those items.
2. More people will buy those items.

You can not determine the effect on the gem-price, because you do not know how many people are involved: it comes down to the question of how many new people will buy gems to buy these reduced items.

You can bet that their marketing departement has hand-picked these items. The goal of these reductions is to sell more gems, plain and simple.

If the Marketing Departement did their job and picked the right items, the demand for gems will go up, not down.

OP, you need to take economics.

Simple lesson for you: Anything that raises demand for gems will also raise price of gems. If there is actual demand for the 70% items then gem prices will increase giving you more value for them.

Unless of course everyone and their mother swipes their credit cards, punches in their paypal info, yadda yadda yadda.

No OP title is right:
Gems value will crash… the roof

Let me guess: you were too late buying gems, the rate has gone way up and you’re trying to talk it down again with an announcement like this? Demand for gems is going increase a lot with those discounts, that’s how discounts work.

I had a side job once in a company supplying to a major supermarket here in the Netherlands. If the supermarket ran any kind of discount on a product of ours, we’d have to ship at least 5 times the usual amounts.

Jia Shen.4217:

Is it even possible to make money by buying gems with gold and then selling them for gold?

Gems sell for 70% of the cost to buy, so basically, prices would have to increase by 50% or more since your investment to profit.

OP, look at how Sales work in the real world.

1) Store announces 70% off of popular/desirable items for a short period of time.
2) People start camping out 3 days before sales start in the cold.
3) When doors open at midnight at certain stores as in years in the past, there are massive crowds that even result in people getting trampled, even killed in the crush to get in the store.
4) “Black Friday” — the name itself implies that this is the highest profit time of year for stores. “Black” implies that this is when store net profits get out of the “red”.

So what can be deduced?

Big short-duration sales on desirable items = big purchasing spree.

Purchasing spree = lots of people spending gems.

Paypal not working/drop of Discover from credit card lineup/people being erroneously flagged as ‘risk accounts’ = people have to buy gems with Gold

So no, OP, this is not as simple as 2+2 = 4, because this isn’t a math problem. It’s a supply/demand problem with a bottlenecked currency supply.

As soon as I saw how gems could be traded for in-game gold, I immediately made a connection of it being similar to how fiat currency (such as USD) and gold bullion works in real life. In-game gold has inflated quite a bit since the game has come out, being a factor of many things: availability of in-game gold now vs launch (and valve of goods on the market), usefulness of in-game gold vs money sinks, etc. Now gems are usable in the gem store but seem to go up at a steady rate due to the ability to be an investment. There is also the unknown of future items on the gem store (such as we saw during the Halloween event and the lost shore event) which seems to make the price of gems spike with the increased demand. The other big possibility is that future expansions for the game will be made available to purchase in the gem store like you can the digital deluxe upgrade. All this is why I can see the price of gems going up a bit, self correcting by coming down slightly, remaining steady for a day or two, rinse and repeat. I myself sank every bit of gold I made at launch and ended up with around 16k gems for about 50g. Even with the 30% “premium fee”, I’ve nearly tripled my gold. A crash is unlikely unless they make gems a lot easier to obtain without spending rl money.

Most of the things that matter in this game must be bought with gold ie commander, gear. Right now gems buy a very large amount of gold, that will likely to continue over the next day or so. However, I suspect people will start spending real $$ to buy gems to convert to gold soon after. Gem prices will come down but not to the previous level and will then spike up at the next event.

However, right now is the absolutely worst time to convert gold to gems unless you’re buying some that’s at a 70% discount.