Guild Wars 2

So, oddly enough, I’ve noticed that the Globs of Ectoplasms are remaining relatively the same price as before, if not a bit lower. This is odd because higher demand and lower supply and/or equal supply should mean that the prices would go up. At this very moment, they’re 30s97c each being sold on the TP. They’re also only being bought for 28s79c from the TP.

On top of the fact that they are used for crafting items level 350-500, they are also salvageable and can drop Essence of Luck or other necessary items used in Crafting.

So, I don’t really understand why this is, but I recommend buying as many as you feel safe buying at the moment, because if people finally catch-on, then they’ll realize how much they need Globs in the long run (and short run).

Well, there are many people who speculated on them and bought stacks and stacks of them pre-patch ( I think). People are also back to farming world bosses now very hard because you get the other mats in the daily chests, so supply will see a spike from that. Even if they aren’t selling the ectos they get, it’s one less person who is looking to buy em off the TP.

Well, they were 18s less than a month ago so I don’t think a 10s increase is nothing. The divide between the have’s and have-not’s just keeps growing.

The reason is that people are again doing the world boss and temple events which give guaranteed rares → lot more ectoplasm entering the market.

Yez! It’s odd that price didn’t spike to 50s for every casual flipper to profit 27→50→ 42,5 (57% profit).

Too bad (for you?) that simply posting this alone cannot push the price up. =/

I wouldn´t suggest to buy ectoplasms at this moment. Price will drop, because a lot of people are salvaging their rares to get ectos out of it(including me)and make a good amount of profit. More ectos entering the market → price go down.

Tom Gore.4035:

The reason is that people are again doing the world boss and temple events which give guaranteed rares -> lot more ectoplasm entering the market.

World bosses are already being repopulated, a week ago I’d see no more than a dozen people at the Wurm or Frozen Maw, now it’s back to normal and 50-100 people per event are collecting their daily rares. Some will salvage for their own use but they’ll get around to selling them soon enough.

http://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/bltc/Glob-price-increase-why/
http://forum-en.guildwars2.com/forum/game/bltc/And-here-goes-the-ecto-price/

The initial price spike to 35 silver pre patch was because alot of casual players got their stack of ectos because they knew they would be needing them for crafting.
So once the demand to use ectos was there, the majority of players had enough supply ofr their own crafting and werent forced to buy from the tp.

But as can be seen on spidy that buffer will eventually erode due to the insame amount of luck needed as well as ascended weapons. Mark my words Ecto will steadily increase over the coming weeks…

aeneq.1760:

But as can be seen on spidy that buffer will eventually erode due to the insame amount of luck needed as well as ascended weapons. Mark my words Ecto will steadily increase over the coming weeks…

huh? supply has been depleted due to this last month of ecto free farming. now supply is skyrocketing. Prices are going to plummet not go up… I’d bet 100g on it.

Ectos are being used at a massive rate to craft to 500, but the actual weapons use almost no ectos.

yum yum..can’t wait for it to go 18s again….. go on you World Boss farmer, get those rares….. !

ZudetGambeous.9573:

aeneq.1760:

But as can be seen on spidy that buffer will eventually erode due to the insame amount of luck needed as well as ascended weapons. Mark my words Ecto will steadily increase over the coming weeks…

huh? supply has been depleted due to this last month of ecto free farming. now supply is skyrocketing. Prices are going to plummet not go up… I’d bet 100g on it.

Ectos are being used at a massive rate to craft to 500, but the actual weapons use almost no ectos.

Well see, I grant you one day of statistics is too little to base any opionion on but the trend day-day atm seems to point to an increase.

Ill take your bet! Lets give it a week and see if we have higher or lower price on ecto and the winner sends the other 100g.

azizul.8469:

yum yum..can’t wait for it to go 18s again….. go on you World Boss farmer, get those rares….. !

Any farming atm most likely means salvaging the item for luck/mf and then salvage of ecto for even more luck and then selling the dust for profit.

This scenario means less ecto on tp and thus increase in its price.

aeneq.1760:

Well see, I grant you one day of statistics is too little to base any opionion on but the trend day-day atm seems to point to an increase.

Ill take your bet! Lets give it a week and see if we have higher or lower price on ecto and the winner sends the other 100g.

The discussion was about a more long term period. You yourself were talking about a period over several weeks. Now you’re changing the topic and turning it into a short term bet.

The short term, medium term, and long term are all very different things. The short term, especially now has too many speculators not knowing what they are doing to make a good estimate. However for the medium and long term you are incorrect.

aeneq.1760:

azizul.8469:

yum yum..can’t wait for it to go 18s again….. go on you World Boss farmer, get those rares….. !

Any farming atm most likely means salvaging the item for luck/mf and then salvage of ecto for even more luck and then selling the dust for profit.

This scenario means less ecto on tp and thus increase in its price.

The more ectos are salvaged, the lower the T6 dust price, the less reason there is to salvage ectos, the more ectos will remain supplied.

Surbrus.6942:

aeneq.1760:

Well see, I grant you one day of statistics is too little to base any opionion on but the trend day-day atm seems to point to an increase.

Ill take your bet! Lets give it a week and see if we have higher or lower price on ecto and the winner sends the other 100g.

The discussion was about a more long term period. You yourself were talking about a period over several weeks. Now you’re changing the topic and turning it into a short term bet.
…

Soz but I still think itll go up higher in the even if the timespan is more than a week, however the original post I answered to said that supply is skyrocketing and prices will plummet in the short term.

So I answered to that statement, i.e. a short term bet. I am good with either way just though that 1 week is about the attention span and then the bet is forgotten.

In the long term the prices should fall (excluding inflation) as the need for luck is reduced and there is no need to salvage en masse anymore.

Surbrus.6942:

aeneq.1760:

azizul.8469:

yum yum..can’t wait for it to go 18s again….. go on you World Boss farmer, get those rares….. !

Any farming atm most likely means salvaging the item for luck/mf and then salvage of ecto for even more luck and then selling the dust for profit.

This scenario means less ecto on tp and thus increase in its price.

The more ectos are salvaged, the lower the T6 dust price, the less reason there is to salvage ectos, the more ectos will remain supplied.

Well see, im willing to take a bet from you as well, 1 or 2 weeks…

ZudetGambeous.9573:

aeneq.1760:

But as can be seen on spidy that buffer will eventually erode due to the insame amount of luck needed as well as ascended weapons. Mark my words Ecto will steadily increase over the coming weeks…

huh? supply has been depleted due to this last month of ecto free farming. now supply is skyrocketing. Prices are going to plummet not go up… I’d bet 100g on it.

Ectos are being used at a massive rate to craft to 500, but the actual weapons use almost no ectos.

Tonight for the first time in recent memory I got thrown into overflow when trying to do the Shadow Behemoth event in Queensdale. That hasn’t happened since… the spring? There are a LOT of people farming the events now that the gold faucets have been shut off.

Floods of rares, ectos, and mats are coming soon. The only thing that is certain is that things will always change.

Zudet, Surbrus if we are going forward with the bet then we need to set a few rules to judge the result in the end. Let me know if anyone of you are willing to continue otherwise just ignore it.

Why does everyone ignore one more major change in the economy? The greens and blues are currently being salvaged en masse not vendored. That’s a large chunk of money “out of thin air” that gets converted to supply of materials. Now the second part is important for us since people get less money that they can spend on purchases from BLTP. Meaning less stuff bought – lower prices.

Correct me if I’m wrong.

That is true. Salvaging or even selling to the TP blue and green drops prevents new gold from coming in to the world while TP fees and salvage kits remove even more. Salvaging does provide some materials (wood, grain leather and sheepmetal) which should increase those supplies and drive down cost.

So less money in the economy. Wood, leather and metal mat prices should start to go down if not needed for the new weapon level and level of the items being salvaged. And that’s just the blue and greens. Exotics will get salvaged for dark matter and ectos are being cracked for luck and not just for the T6 dust, which has driven down that price as supplies for T6 dust balloon.

BilboBaggins.5620:

Well, they were 18s less than a month ago so I don’t think a 10s increase is nothing. The divide between the have’s and have-not’s just keeps growing.

Hey yo, spare us the have and have not’s material. There is no such thing as equality, as much as many of you would like to argue otherwise – especially as it relates to a virtual game that enlists INDIVIDUAL PLAYER’s who largely act and do INDEPENDENTLY. Accordingly, there will ALWAYS be have and have not’s, kkthx.

aeneq.1760:

Zudet, Surbrus if we are going forward with the bet then we need to set a few rules to judge the result in the end. Let me know if anyone of you are willing to continue otherwise just ignore it.

If I knew exactly when they would drop up and down i’d be on the TP buying and selling, not on the forums making bets.

If I had to guess I’d say they drop down within a month. Of course that is void of any other changes. If Anet releases a patch that indirectly or directly effects ectos then it could completely change again. Or if they do an interview and mention something that has anything to do with ectos then it will change again.

So given that Anet does no interviews, no patches and there are no new discoveries in the next 30 days then I bet 100g that ectos will drop by at least 10s from their peak. If any of those things do happen then the bet is void since it alters the rules.

Interestingly enough, etcos are already down ~4s from their peak.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

Interestingly enough, etcos are already down ~4s from their peak.

It’s not a difficult cycle to predict. The price of ectos rises rapidly, people who want to make money see this, they begin to concentrate on activities that provide ectos, the supply increases and multiple sellers compete with each other, the price of ectos falls and they move on to something else.

The only real unkowns are whether prices will stabilize higher than before, and whether demand for them will remain high once the hardcores get their ascended shinies.

Ok, 30 days was a bit longer than I was envisioning but if we set a limit of <=25s in a months time then Im good with that bet.

Its true that the price went down after the patch, but im fairly certain thats related to people stockpiling for the patch so supply got flooded. As the big champion farming is reduced (temples isnt comparable) the flood of ecto-items to market is lower.

Looking over the last few days there is a slow but steady increase in ecto price and I believe it will continue up.

Btw, im not making the bet just to be aggressive I just thought it would be fun. its not like I need the gold atm…

edit: I am assuming correctly that you meant patches/interviews etc that would provide an effect on Ecto market? If you just meant any interview/patch etc. then ofcourse that wont happen but if you meant that then just say that you didnt want to bet

The question is, if people buy ectos directly from the TP or just salvage those, they get from their crafted exos.
But i also think that the ecto price will go up, just cause….more MF is more MF.

Ecto price is dropping because people need Dragonite, and the only way to get it delivers a lot of rares in the process.

tolunart.2095:

ZudetGambeous.9573:

aeneq.1760:

But as can be seen on spidy that buffer will eventually erode due to the insame amount of luck needed as well as ascended weapons. Mark my words Ecto will steadily increase over the coming weeks…

huh? supply has been depleted due to this last month of ecto free farming. now supply is skyrocketing. Prices are going to plummet not go up… I’d bet 100g on it.

Ectos are being used at a massive rate to craft to 500, but the actual weapons use almost no ectos.

Tonight for the first time in recent memory I got thrown into overflow when trying to do the Shadow Behemoth event in Queensdale. That hasn’t happened since… the spring? There are a LOT of people farming the events now that the gold faucets have been shut off.

Floods of rares, ectos, and mats are coming soon. The only thing that is certain is that things will always change.

It’s going to get better (or worse depending on perspective) for lower ecto prices when the 10 minute overflow grace period is added to all world bosses.

That’s too low volume, temples/keeps/world bosses only produce a limited amount of material. Its not even close to what was available during the gauntlet/invasion.

Onkelbubu.3108:

The question is, if people buy ectos directly from the TP or just salvage those, they get from their crafted exos.
But i also think that the ecto price will go up, just cause….more MF is more MF.

I think it will stabilize. If ecto prices are high, then people won’t salvage them. If the price gets low enough, then they will be more likely to salvage them.

So lets say you get a rare what options do you have;

1) Sell it for 23s
2) Salvage it for 90% chance of X ectos (average return would be 28.8s)

Now you have an Ecto what would you d?

1) Sell it for 32s
2) Salvage it for 1-5 Crystalline Dust/Luck and sell for on average 2.5×12s (~30s)

Its quite clear that the ectos from this chain wont reach TP until MF is maxed out, just check the listings for Pile of Crystalline Dust, after the patch it has basically doubled.

edit: if someone wants a long term play, look at Crystalline Dust, when Ascended/MF is done then that should rebound to previous levels which is an almost 100% return

aeneq.1760:

So lets say you get a rare what options do you have;

1) Sell it for 23s
2) Salvage it for 90% chance of X ectos (average return would be 28.8s)

Now you have an Ecto what would you d?

1) Sell it for 32s
2) Salvage it for 1-5 Crystalline Dust/Luck and sell for on average 2.5×12s (~30s)

Its quite clear that the ectos from this chain wont reach TP until MF is maxed out, just check the listings for Pile of Crystalline Dust, after the patch it has basically doubled.

edit: if someone wants a long term play, look at Crystalline Dust, when Ascended/MF is done then that should rebound to previous levels which is an almost 100% return

Dust is actually at pre-patch levels of 12sp now. My friend took a bath on it buying it at the 20sp before the patch went live (in hopes of making a killing on the TP).

I’ve been selling my ecto’s at 32sp each as fast as I can. I expect about everything to return to pre-patch levels. Right now we’re experiencing a short term crafting boom.

You are right, I wasnt looking far enough back and was looking at the prepatch stocking people did…

aeneq.1760:

Ok, 30 days was a bit longer than I was envisioning but if we set a limit of <=25s in a months time then Im good with that bet.

Its true that the price went down after the patch, but im fairly certain thats related to people stockpiling for the patch so supply got flooded. As the big champion farming is reduced (temples isnt comparable) the flood of ecto-items to market is lower.

Looking over the last few days there is a slow but steady increase in ecto price and I believe it will continue up.

Btw, im not making the bet just to be aggressive I just thought it would be fun. its not like I need the gold atm…

edit: I am assuming correctly that you meant patches/interviews etc that would provide an effect on Ecto market? If you just meant any interview/patch etc. then ofcourse that wont happen but if you meant that then just say that you didnt want to bet

I meant any patch. I don’t know of a single patch since launch that didn’t effect ecto prices in some way or another. They either increase the price or decrease the price. It is a constant cycle. I know for a fact that the next patch will decrease ecto prices. Not sure by how much, but linking boss events in overflows and the revamped teq with extra rewards will both lead to more rares, and the lfg tool will lead to more groups which leads to more dungeon runs which leads to more tokens which leads to more rares.

ZudetGambeous.9573:

…

I meant any patch. I don’t know of a single patch since launch that didn’t effect ecto prices in some way or another. They either increase the price or decrease the price. It is a constant cycle. I know for a fact that the next patch will decrease ecto prices. Not sure by how much, but linking boss events in overflows and the revamped teq with extra rewards will both lead to more rares, and the lfg tool will lead to more groups which leads to more dungeon runs which leads to more tokens which leads to more rares.

Ok, well I wasnt trying to make a debate about the ecto price. I just felt like making a bet based on the previous comment from another user, if you arent interested then just say so.

Rigel.3092:

BilboBaggins.5620:

Well, they were 18s less than a month ago so I don’t think a 10s increase is nothing. The divide between the have’s and have-not’s just keeps growing.

Hey yo, spare us the have and have not’s material. There is no such thing as equality, as much as many of you would like to argue otherwise – especially as it relates to a virtual game that enlists INDIVIDUAL PLAYER’s who largely act and do INDEPENDENTLY. Accordingly, there will ALWAYS be have and have not’s, kkthx.

You have every right to disagree and even post your disagreement but no, I won’t spare you because you are not my intended audience. As a paying customer I have every right to post feedback to ArenaNet on what I do and do not like about the game, and I intend to continue doing so. kkthx.

No new source has been added and a very big demand has been added.