Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: WeeScottyc.6805

WeeScottyc.6805

This morning i got the new cat of darkness mini in a trick or treat bag, and looking at the 25g price currently, i was wondering whether or not to sell now, or attempt to wait it out for a month or so for a better price? Also, i have some spare black lion tickets i have been saving, and am undecided on whether to get a couple of the halloween weapon skins while they’re 2 tickets. But then again, its the same issue of sell now or wait it out? What’s your opinions?

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Wait it out. OR sell now, and buy one back once it gets even cheaper (which i suspect it will). But once Halloween is over, you have to pay 12 candy corn cobs for it, which even at the current rate, is more than 40g and candy corn gonna get more expensive over time again as well.

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Posted by: nekretaal.6485

nekretaal.6485

Sell now, and you will be selling while demand is still high. It’s day 2, you’ll still hit the initial craze.

Greedy buyers will buy up everything to flip, but the market will crash immediately after the patch when players find the new shiny to grind for. Wintersday, for example, is right around the corner, to say nothing of a possible season scavenger hunt.

If you hold until July or so you might get a decent, but not spectacular return, but even then you need to watch out for the fact that everything gets rereleased. Everything.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I bought a bunch of halloween weapon last year. And it took them over a year to climb in price. Oddly, some of it went up more after they released again for 2 ticket, because of the new collection.

My suggestion would be buy halloween weapon for 2 ticket, sell it and buy tempest weapon on the TP. The way I see it is, it should take much shorter time for a tempest weapon to double in price(70 to 140), compare to halloween weapon to double in price(200 to 400). Not to mention halloween weapon might get released again next Halloween.

For the mini, I don’t know. Mini is a weird thing when the supre rare ones become super expensive after a long time. While most other price stay put. If you have some thing better to invest in, I would say get rid of the cat. It’ll probably always be capped in price unless Anet decided to make them unobtainable again.

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Posted by: Roscoe.2348

Roscoe.2348

Obviously sell now. Even if you are only a poorly skilled trader you should be able to make better than 10% on investment per week (even per day really). So that would take only 12 reinvestments to triple your money, twelve weeks or two weeks (if daily return is 10%) depending how good you are. Make your gold work for you!

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Posted by: Dasenthal.6520

Dasenthal.6520

So it’s related to this: how do guys feel about the maize balm? Sell now or hold on to it? I’ve put a great deal of thought into it and came out clueless.

“A conquered people will always resist you,
Edair. But allies-allies will fight by your side”~Cobiah Mariner

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Posted by: Pretty Pixie.8603

Pretty Pixie.8603

Sell the Balm while the farm instance is still available, I’d say.

Relentless Inquisition [PAIN] – FA

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

There are a couple of Personal Story instances I can think of where ambients spawn thick and fast too.

Not to mention that Godslost Swamp also has lots and lots of ambient critters. Prices may stabilise, but there will always be a demand for the Balm, I’d say.

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Posted by: nekretaal.6485

nekretaal.6485

Sell the balm. Less than one week left to use it while the instance is available.

I tried to use it in the open world and encountered kill stealers.

The only thing propping up bag prices is their value as raffle tickets for the Grinning Shield/Greatsaw. After the raffle is over, their value is gone.

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Posted by: mtpelion.4562

mtpelion.4562

Due to the hefty cost to craft Maize Balm, I anticipate it rising in price after it stops dropping.

I’m holding all of mine until after Halloween. If the prices go up, I’ll sell. If they don’t, I’ll use it myself.

Server: Devona’s Rest

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Posted by: Guhracie.3419

Guhracie.3419

There are a couple of Personal Story instances I can think of where ambients spawn thick and fast too.

Not to mention that Godslost Swamp also has lots and lots of ambient critters. Prices may stabilise, but there will always be a demand for the Balm, I’d say.

There are no drops in the personal story anymore, as of the Sept. 9 NPE feature patch. It has been confirmed that using the balm in a personal story instance will spawn the elementals, but they do not have bags.

“Be angry about legendary weapons, sure, but what about the recent drought of content?”
-Mike O’Brien
Because we can’t be angry about both?

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

Ah, good point there, Guhracie. I forgot about that.

Well, there’s still spots in the open world where ambients spawn in decently thick quantities. There’s one in particular I’m thinking of that I’m not sharing just yet in case I decide to farm the bags myself. (Even though I’m sure other players know about it too.)

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Posted by: Sparda.9750

Sparda.9750

does someone remember how the price of festeval’s items grew up last years?

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Posted by: lvis.3824

lvis.3824

prices went up a lot ofc, but it took some time.
However, you have to bear in mind that we got much moar candy corn this year !

On the other hand they’ve introduced the candy corn gobbler to take out some candy.

It’s hard to tell what will happen, but given the supply atm of both candy corn and tot bags i think it will not go up as much as last year .

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

does someone remember how the price of festeval’s items grew up last years?

www.gw2spidy.com should have the info you want.

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Posted by: nekretaal.6485

nekretaal.6485

Last year was very different. The event died after 3 days.

Probably 15x as many materials got released this year. For perspective, there was enough candy corn + candy corn cobs to make 158 cobs on the market. This year, individual players may have made a significant fraction of that.

Time to buy now or time to sell now?

The CC Gobbler provides a sink for candy, but the Home nodes and Maize balms allow more candy to enter the market. Raffle tickets from bags are worthless after the raffle. Minipets will likely be rereleased.

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Posted by: Sariel V.7024

Sariel V.7024

prices went up a lot ofc, but it took some time.
However, you have to bear in mind that we got much moar candy corn this year !

On the other hand they’ve introduced the candy corn gobbler to take out some candy.

It’s hard to tell what will happen, but given the supply atm of both candy corn and tot bags i think it will not go up as much as last year .

Check out the stock of the other 3 materials. Considering the limited utility, I don’t think it will be moving any time soon.

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Posted by: Sparda.9750

Sparda.9750

indeed.. should i sell my ( poor ) 1k of nougat, fangs and skull plus 5 or 6 candy cobs or should i wait?? i know that osmeone will have 20k of everything, still i m a normal player with normal farm and that s i have.. some extra gold will usefull

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

Now that the vendor is gone, the only thing players will be buying nougat/fangs/skulls for is for crafting the 3 craftable Halloween weapons, and there’s more than enough supply on the TP to craft plenty of those for a long time to come.

Candy Corn is a different matter, since it’s used in a lot more recipes. However, now that people can make Maize Balm, supply for Candy Corn is likely to never dry up to a point where you can really make bank off of it.

All in all, I think the Halloween stuff will go up slightly in price, but not really enough to make them worthwhile investments.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Now that the vendor is gone, the only thing players will be buying nougat/fangs/skulls for is for crafting the 3 craftable Halloween weapons, and there’s more than enough supply on the TP to craft plenty of those for a long time to come.

Candy Corn is a different matter, since it’s used in a lot more recipes. However, now that people can make Maize Balm, supply for Candy Corn is likely to never dry up to a point where you can really make bank off of it.

All in all, I think the Halloween stuff will go up slightly in price, but not really enough to make them worthwhile investments.

The unrefined versions are gonna have a hard time moving from vendor value on the tp, considering that Sonder doesnt trade 1k each of them in anymore for the refined versions. So we are stuck with what supply there is to craft the recipes, so recipes for the gifts and refined nougat/skulls/fangs will rise pretty sharpish.

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

Oh, doesn’t he trade them when Halloween’s not around? Dang. I should have bought up lots of the cheap ones to refine then. XD Ah well.

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Posted by: azurrei.5691

azurrei.5691

Now that the vendor is gone, the only thing players will be buying nougat/fangs/skulls for is for crafting the 3 craftable Halloween weapons, and there’s more than enough supply on the TP to craft plenty of those for a long time to come.

Candy Corn is a different matter, since it’s used in a lot more recipes. However, now that people can make Maize Balm, supply for Candy Corn is likely to never dry up to a point where you can really make bank off of it.

All in all, I think the Halloween stuff will go up slightly in price, but not really enough to make them worthwhile investments.

No one cares about the nougat/skulls/etc. as that stuff will get vendored. CC will buy 20 slot bags, food recipes, and used in the gobbler for buffs. Most importantly, bags will go up in price as supply dwindles and people STILL don’t have the ultra rare mini… maize balm will keep a small supply of bags trickling into the market but will die off when the “cheap” maize supply starts to dry up. It’s hard to predict when bags will rise and by how much, but you can be sure they will. Hold onto bags until you need the gold…

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

Now that the vendor is gone, the only thing players will be buying nougat/fangs/skulls for is for crafting the 3 craftable Halloween weapons, and there’s more than enough supply on the TP to craft plenty of those for a long time to come.

Candy Corn is a different matter, since it’s used in a lot more recipes. However, now that people can make Maize Balm, supply for Candy Corn is likely to never dry up to a point where you can really make bank off of it.

All in all, I think the Halloween stuff will go up slightly in price, but not really enough to make them worthwhile investments.

The unrefined versions are gonna have a hard time moving from vendor value on the tp, considering that Sonder doesnt trade 1k each of them in anymore for the refined versions. So we are stuck with what supply there is to craft the recipes, so recipes for the gifts and refined nougat/skulls/fangs will rise pretty sharpish.

This seems more like an oversite than anything. I mean are the unrefined rares used for anything? It seems there should always be a way to convert them.

It’s hard to judge candy corn. there are a lot of uses for it, but are people going to actually be using them throughout the year? and will they use them fast enough for all the supply to be used up? I think it will be a few months before anything significant happens since people are still opening up tot bags like crazy.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Now that the vendor is gone, the only thing players will be buying nougat/fangs/skulls for is for crafting the 3 craftable Halloween weapons, and there’s more than enough supply on the TP to craft plenty of those for a long time to come.

Candy Corn is a different matter, since it’s used in a lot more recipes. However, now that people can make Maize Balm, supply for Candy Corn is likely to never dry up to a point where you can really make bank off of it.

All in all, I think the Halloween stuff will go up slightly in price, but not really enough to make them worthwhile investments.

The unrefined versions are gonna have a hard time moving from vendor value on the tp, considering that Sonder doesnt trade 1k each of them in anymore for the refined versions. So we are stuck with what supply there is to craft the recipes, so recipes for the gifts and refined nougat/skulls/fangs will rise pretty sharpish.

This seems more like an oversite than anything. I mean are the unrefined rares used for anything? It seems there should always be a way to convert them.

It’s hard to judge candy corn. there are a lot of uses for it, but are people going to actually be using them throughout the year? and will they use them fast enough for all the supply to be used up? I think it will be a few months before anything significant happens since people are still opening up tot bags like crazy.

If its an oversight, its the second year running. The unrefined rares are used for plenty of stuff but not in a quantity that would suck millions of listings at vendor value off the tp.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Maize Balm still looks like an interesting item.
It still drops from ToT Bags, which now require Maize Balm to be farmed. Crafting them doesnt seem an option at a price of 100 candy corn because you wont get 100 candy corn back from using 1 balm. The recipe is also time gated, so you can only craft 1 per day and the recipe cant be obtained anymore so who didnt learn it yet, will have to rely on the supplies left on the tp, which will hit double digit gold value pretty soon.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

every limited event item most likely go up.

The difference is it can go up slowly and take a year by a little bit. Or it can go up a lot in very short time(like the poly necklace).

I still kick my self for not investing in the poly necklace(only bought 5). But I think there is some risk in it because Anet very likely just release another jewel upgrade with different stats or ascended value.

The maize balm is a bit hard to use. Because it’s not so easy to find ambient that are group so tidely together in which you can hit 3 each and have 3 groups. Even if you can find it, you have to wait for a high cooldown. My guess is it depend on ToT bag value, if it went up a bunch, Maize Balm is definately a good value.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: nekretaal.6485

nekretaal.6485

I bought about 2 dozen stacks of various consumables at 2-10 copper, and relisted them at 30-60 copper.

Some already sold. I think I broke even already and if any more sell I’ll have a decent % return.

The plastic spider tonic was a hit with role players. I think I whiffed on trying to gauge ppl on halloween tonics (the endless tonic is cheap).

I guess I’ll go on the forums and evangelize Magic find, and the rest could sell. (but at 5s/stack who really cares)

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

every limited event item most likely go up.

The difference is it can go up slowly and take a year by a little bit. Or it can go up a lot in very short time(like the poly necklace).

I still kick my self for not investing in the poly necklace(only bought 5). But I think there is some risk in it because Anet very likely just release another jewel upgrade with different stats or ascended value.

The maize balm is a bit hard to use. Because it’s not so easy to find ambient that are group so tidely together in which you can hit 3 each and have 3 groups. Even if you can find it, you have to wait for a high cooldown. My guess is it depend on ToT bag value, if it went up a bunch, Maize Balm is definately a good value.

Actually in the capital cities there are a number of places where ambients are tightly grouped with a fast respawn.

With a group of 5 players you can farm a good number of bags per hour at almost 0 cost. In fact you can even craft the maize balm at this point and still make a big profit using it.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

every limited event item most likely go up.

The difference is it can go up slowly and take a year by a little bit. Or it can go up a lot in very short time(like the poly necklace).

I still kick my self for not investing in the poly necklace(only bought 5). But I think there is some risk in it because Anet very likely just release another jewel upgrade with different stats or ascended value.

The maize balm is a bit hard to use. Because it’s not so easy to find ambient that are group so tidely together in which you can hit 3 each and have 3 groups. Even if you can find it, you have to wait for a high cooldown. My guess is it depend on ToT bag value, if it went up a bunch, Maize Balm is definately a good value.

Actually in the capital cities there are a number of places where ambients are tightly grouped with a fast respawn.

With a group of 5 players you can farm a good number of bags per hour at almost 0 cost. In fact you can even craft the maize balm at this point and still make a big profit using it.

well, the price crashed. I’m not sure how many stack I bought, like 30 probably at 8 silver.

I dont’ think there are that many dedicated people grouping up to farm it. Quite honestly with the respawn of the city, you make more money just harvesting.

I didn’t even farm it that much resetting the rat instance.

If I ever started to farm again, I might mix in with my regular mining route. The respawn is really the main problem. You need to know a bunch of place with ambient and just park alt there to make it effective.

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

Actually it’s quite simple. Since Sonder still sells 20 slot bags for 3 candy corn cobs (no crafting involved!), and you can still convert candy corn to cobs, the base price of candy corn should start to hover around 38 copper at a bare minimum. This, in turn, means that the price of a trick or treat bag must, at a minimum, be more than 6 silver due to the remaining guaranteed content of those bags.

Once the masses figure out the Sonder the Seller story, the price of candy corn will shoot up. Add the massive advantage (buffs) offered by the gobbler and candy corn should be at 40 to 50 copper within two months. (Edit: I forgot to add the candy corn ice cream that – looking at the Halloween achievements – we’ll undoubtedly need for the upcoming wintersday achievements).

(edited by Buttercup.5871)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

…….the recipe cant be obtained anymore so who didnt learn it yet, will have to rely on the supplies left on the tp, which will hit double digit gold value pretty soon.

It actually hit triple digit figures pretty soon.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

…….the recipe cant be obtained anymore so who didnt learn it yet, will have to rely on the supplies left on the tp, which will hit double digit gold value pretty soon.

It actually hit triple digit figures pretty soon.

what recipe are you talking about.

The cooking recipe?

I thought the recipe for mad king weapons is quite cheap to craft(mystic forge). I’m not sure how it’ll spike that much.

I’m not sure how everyone is so optimistic. There is only like a billion candy corn drops during the Halloween. I’m not sure there is that many people in need of 20 slot bag.

I bought 160 stacks of candy corn only because if for some weird reasons, I want to started leveling wvw ranks.

Obviously every limited events item most likely go up. I’m holding up my money for wintersday and hope something more worth while come up to invest.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: ZudetGambeous.9573

ZudetGambeous.9573

…….the recipe cant be obtained anymore so who didnt learn it yet, will have to rely on the supplies left on the tp, which will hit double digit gold value pretty soon.

It actually hit triple digit figures pretty soon.

I knew I should have bought more of those… Oh well I have 40 at least…

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

…….the recipe cant be obtained anymore so who didnt learn it yet, will have to rely on the supplies left on the tp, which will hit double digit gold value pretty soon.

It actually hit triple digit figures pretty soon.

I knew I should have bought more of those… Oh well I have 40 at least…

arh kitten. I knew I should have spent some time study the market on Halloween. I suppose you are talking about those recipe that is bought with candy corn.

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

No, the maize balm recipe, which has able to be traded for for 700 nougats but that isnt possible anymore.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha! Haha. Oh this is funny.

Ok. Ok. Phew. Ok.

So, at the crafting cost of 30 silver each, selling maizebalm will always come at a loss, right? But, hahahaha, ok ok… Sorry. But you know what the best part is? You can only craft 1 maize balm per day per account! Hahahahaha! You’d never get the 100g back before the next Halloween!

Trick or treat!

(edited by Buttercup.5871)

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha! Haha. Oh this is funny.

Ok. Ok. Phew. Ok.

So, at the crafting cost of 30 silver each, selling maizebalm will always come at a loss, right? But, hahahaha, ok ok… Sorry. But you know what the best part is? You can only craft 1 maize balm per day per account! Hahahahaha! You’d never get the 100g back before the next Halloween!

Trick or treat!

We are talking about the recipes for the maize balm, not the maize balm itself.
I already made over 400g profit on the recipes during the first buy out of supply.

Joke is on you.

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha! Haha. Oh this is funny.

Ok. Ok. Phew. Ok.

So, at the crafting cost of 30 silver each, selling maizebalm will always come at a loss, right? But, hahahaha, ok ok… Sorry. But you know what the best part is? You can only craft 1 maize balm per day per account! Hahahahaha! You’d never get the 100g back before the next Halloween!

Trick or treat!

ya that’s fine. 100 gold isn’t a big deal to me anyway. I probably lost 300 gold on maize balm already buying them at 8 silver. If you want to laugh at something, laugh at that.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Buttercup.5871

Buttercup.5871

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha! Haha. Oh this is funny.

Ok. Ok. Phew. Ok.

So, at the crafting cost of 30 silver each, selling maizebalm will always come at a loss, right? But, hahahaha, ok ok… Sorry. But you know what the best part is? You can only craft 1 maize balm per day per account! Hahahahaha! You’d never get the 100g back before the next Halloween!

Trick or treat!

We are talking about the recipes for the maize balm, not the maize balm itself.
I already made over 400g profit on the recipes during the first buy out of supply.

Joke is on you.

Why would it? I didn’t buy an item you inflated for an hour through your post – from 5 to 458 gold to 7 gold. I was talking about the buyers of a recipe that will never make a profit. And yes, of course you made a profit, you’re the one who caused this bubble in the first place!

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I’ll take your word for it. And buy 6 for 100 gold. I’m not sure how many people stock up on this though. It used to cost 3 gold? each?

Hahaha. Hahahahahaha! Haha. Oh this is funny.

Ok. Ok. Phew. Ok.

So, at the crafting cost of 30 silver each, selling maizebalm will always come at a loss, right? But, hahahaha, ok ok… Sorry. But you know what the best part is? You can only craft 1 maize balm per day per account! Hahahahaha! You’d never get the 100g back before the next Halloween!

Trick or treat!

We are talking about the recipes for the maize balm, not the maize balm itself.
I already made over 400g profit on the recipes during the first buy out of supply.

Joke is on you.

Why would it? I didn’t buy an item you inflated for an hour through your post – from 5 to 458 gold to 7 gold. I was talking about the buyers of a recipe that will never make a profit. And yes, of course you made a profit, you’re the one who caused this bubble in the first place!

At least he’s not making rumor about flying pig mount that can be bought with candy corn….

Oh wait, he made similar rumor before with sprocket lol. But take it easy. People are always spaming rumors. I’m willing to take the risk. 100 gold isn’t a big deal to me. It just depends how many hundred if not thousands people stock up. I’m not sure how many Wanz stock up.

And my guess is you stock up on candy corn or bags too, that’s why you are talking about it. Someone says the dev talked about the number of candycorn drop during the events. It’s ridunculous. I can’ remember the number.

edit. Actually here is a quote 10’s of billions of candy corn. I’m not sure if that is actually number or figurative speech.

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/bltc/I-have-a-question-about-the-economy/first#post4216795

(edited by laokoko.7403)

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Posted by: Matisse.9356

Matisse.9356

Whilst I did stock up on some Halloween stuff, anybody buying the maize balm recipe with the expectation to make any profit out of crafting maize balm must be close to braindead. This item is purely for speculation. And there are the usual loudmouths on the forum that try to manipulate the market with nonsensical posts. Some actually had good reads months ago but are succumbing more and more to trolling.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Whilst I did stock up on some Halloween stuff, anybody buying the maize balm recipe with the expectation to make any profit out of crafting maize balm must be close to braindead. This item is purely for speculation. And there are the usual loudmouths on the forum that try to manipulate the market with nonsensical posts. Some actually had good reads months ago but are succumbing more and more to trolling.

Who said crafting maize balm will be profitable?

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: laokoko.7403

laokoko.7403

I told people not to buy those inifnite aethereal tonic recipe for 1 gold. And some one was trying to sell it for 10,000 gold the other day… The price is back down to a few hundred golds, but I learned my lesson.

That being said, the molten tonic have a relatively low drop rate. I seen the supply at 300 during the events? and the price havn’t change much.

Some investor might have a few hundred maize balm recipe saved up. And a few of them might make it hard to move. There might even be investor willing to invest a few thousands gold in it. Compare that to the rarity of molten tonic which didn’t change price much, I’m not so sure price will spike that much.

But never under estimate the power of the hoarders. They can hoard items and drive the items up.

And some people’s trash might be another man’s treasure. I have no idea why some people might want to collect some recipe they never use. But there are people like that.

(edited by laokoko.7403)

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: Zaxares.5419

Zaxares.5419

That’s why I just buy for my own personal use and stay out of the speculation business. I got my Maize Balm recipe for about 1g during Halloween, just for my own completion, and never looked at it again. In my opinion, regretting opportunities you missed is a surefire way to make your life miserable.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: brittitude.1983

brittitude.1983

Currently, the approximate sell value of the tradeable items in the ToT bags is around 3.1s (using wiki percentages and excluding rare drops as they are too inconsistent). Using the current TP buy values, a vial of maize balm costs 24.4s to craft. With a 9 ToT bag return, the approximate value is 24.3s. This is if you open and sell the stuff inside. The bags sell for more now on the TP then the value of what is returned, unless the value of the non-tradeable items is considered.

Since most of the demand for the bags is to open them, the supply will dwindle from the TP. Once players use their stock of balm, the only way to resupply it will be with the recipes and some from the ToT bags, which doesn’t seem to be a high return. Since they can’t be purchased anymore, the only supply of recipes is in speculators pockets or on the TP. And based on the relative supply, my guess is that there aren’t many in speculators pockets since they were about 1.5 gold and the 700 nougats were worth at least 3 gold.

Considering Zulu, Gwynefyrrd, and the Oontz amulets, the demand for the ToT bags should not ease up until a new method of acquiring the poly luminescent refractors is introduced. It is possible that the current three colors will only be acquireable through the necklaces in the ToT bags, even if others are added through other means, like blue and white with winter’s day, though.

It should take 4-6 months for the balm supply to be reduced to the point of the recipe being profitable to use and sell the balm. It may happen faster considering with the LS and winters day, the ToT supply might not be replenished fast enough to meet demand and the balm value will increase (as well as ToT prices).

Until then, crafting and using the balm every day will net approximately 17s per day at current prices. Over the next 320 days, that is about 54g. Anyone paying less than that for the recipe is guaranteeing a profit from using the recipe. Add to that, since most prices of items are at or around vendor price, even opening the bags from the balm will mean that over time the loss will never be greater than around 2c per day or 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And that is a guaranteed 2880 chances at the rare items for 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And while the rares might not drop, there is value in the luck and ascended mats that drop.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Until then, crafting and using the balm every day will net approximately 17s per day at current prices. Over the next 320 days, that is about 54g. Anyone paying less than that for the recipe is guaranteeing a profit from using the recipe. Add to that, since most prices of items are at or around vendor price, even opening the bags from the balm will mean that over time the loss will never be greater than around 2c per day or 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And that is a guaranteed 2880 chances at the rare items for 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And while the rares might not drop, there is value in the luck and ascended mats that drop.

Nice post.
However, at this point i wouldnt craft maize balm, as it is cheaper to buy on the tp.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: brittitude.1983

brittitude.1983

Until then, crafting and using the balm every day will net approximately 17s per day at current prices. Over the next 320 days, that is about 54g. Anyone paying less than that for the recipe is guaranteeing a profit from using the recipe. Add to that, since most prices of items are at or around vendor price, even opening the bags from the balm will mean that over time the loss will never be greater than around 2c per day or 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And that is a guaranteed 2880 chances at the rare items for 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And while the rares might not drop, there is value in the luck and ascended mats that drop.

Nice post.
However, at this point i wouldnt craft maize balm, as it is cheaper to buy on the tp.

I was replying to those that think that crafting using the recipe is unprofitable. I didn’t say it was the most profitable method.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

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Posted by: Wanze.8410

Wanze.8410

Until then, crafting and using the balm every day will net approximately 17s per day at current prices. Over the next 320 days, that is about 54g. Anyone paying less than that for the recipe is guaranteeing a profit from using the recipe. Add to that, since most prices of items are at or around vendor price, even opening the bags from the balm will mean that over time the loss will never be greater than around 2c per day or 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And that is a guaranteed 2880 chances at the rare items for 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And while the rares might not drop, there is value in the luck and ascended mats that drop.

Nice post.
However, at this point i wouldnt craft maize balm, as it is cheaper to buy on the tp.

I was replying to those that think that crafting using the recipe is unprofitable. I didn’t say it was the most profitable method.

Yeah, but at 100 candy corn a pop, you can expect the crafting price go up considerably.

Tin Foil [HATS]-Hardcore BLTC-PvP Guild
Bloin – Running around, tagging Keeps, getting whack on Scoobie Snacks.

Halloween Items - Save or Sell Now?

in Black Lion Trading Co

Posted by: brittitude.1983

brittitude.1983

Until then, crafting and using the balm every day will net approximately 17s per day at current prices. Over the next 320 days, that is about 54g. Anyone paying less than that for the recipe is guaranteeing a profit from using the recipe. Add to that, since most prices of items are at or around vendor price, even opening the bags from the balm will mean that over time the loss will never be greater than around 2c per day or 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And that is a guaranteed 2880 chances at the rare items for 6.4s plus the cost of the recipe. And while the rares might not drop, there is value in the luck and ascended mats that drop.

Nice post.
However, at this point i wouldnt craft maize balm, as it is cheaper to buy on the tp.

I was replying to those that think that crafting using the recipe is unprofitable. I didn’t say it was the most profitable method.

Yeah, but at 100 candy corn a pop, you can expect the crafting price go up considerably.

Since the value of the ToT bags is linked directly to the value of candy corn, which is used to create the balm, which is used to create the ToT bags, the circular price effect will be interesting to watch.

My expectations may be different than yours though.