Guild Wars 2

So i started to calculate the expected value of return of mystic forging the dusk and dawn when i noticed that either it is really profitable or my calculations should be wrong. These were my calculations in small steps:

input value: 4x cheapest rare greatsword lvl 80 = 4×50 silver = 2g

odds of getting dusk/dawn: There is a roughly 20% chance of receiving a higher quality item, in this case a exotic. In the black trading company there are 48 exotic greatswords available including dusk and dawn. this would mean that the odds of getting them would be 0.2 x (2/48) = 0.00833333 = 2/240 or 1/120

expected value of return: the current value of dusk and dawn are >600 g. expected value of return would be (2/240) x 600g/2g = 2.5 which is incredibly good.

In other words i have a 1 in 120 chance of getting dusk or dawn. my input is 2g (4x rare greatsword) . So if i tried at least 120x forging it i would most likely get dusk or dawn. so the cost would be: 120 × 2g = 240g and profit would be >600g. Not the mention the fact that i considert all other 238/240 posibillities as a 100% loss wich they are not.

This seems crazy amount of profit to me and i know that a lot of players have put a bigger amount of gold then 240g in it so where did i go wrong?

Jack.4016:

Wanze.8410:

Again: the chance to get a precursor is not as high as getting any other exotic weapon from a forge, it doesnt matter if you put in rare or exotics.

Is this a fact? your previous link does not prove this as far as i can tell.

It does prove a trend towards it, if you analize the date correctly. You also fail to prove that the droprate for a precursor is the same as for any other exotic, you are just assuming it and then wonder why your calculations are wrong.

Precursors dont seem to have the same chance of being forged than other exotic weapons.

http://smrrd.de/static/gw2/precursor.html

From my experience, the odds of a precursor return from mystic forge is between 1/500 and 1/1000

Wanze.8410:

Precursors dont seem to have the same chance of being forged than other exotic weapons.

http://smrrd.de/static/gw2/precursor.html

i’m sry but i dont think this helps me:
i get it that 1/75 succes rate with exotic greatswords is different to my calculation which would come to 2/48 with exotic only.

But 75 attempts is not that big of a number in my opinion. Based on quick calculations with my numbers there is roughly a 11% chance of this happing, at which point its just considerd bad luck.

for the rest of data is not with greatswords so the odds would be different

tertle.4621:

From my experience, the odds of a precursor return from mystic forge is between 1/500 and 1/1000

what are you using for input? rare or exotic / greatswords?

Jack.4016:

Wanze.8410:

Precursors dont seem to have the same chance of being forged than other exotic weapons.

http://smrrd.de/static/gw2/precursor.html

i’m sry but i dont think this helps me:
i get it that 1/75 succes rate with exotic greatswords is different to my calculation which would come to 2/48 with exotic only.

But 75 attempts is not that big of a number in my opinion. Based on quick calculations with my numbers there is roughly a 11% chance of this happing, at which point its just considerd bad luck.

for the rest of data is not with greatswords so the odds would be different

Again: the chance to get a precursor is not as high as getting any other exotic weapon from a forge, it doesnt matter if you put in rare or exotics.

Wanze.8410:

Again: the chance to get a precursor is not as high as getting any other exotic weapon from a forge, it doesnt matter if you put in rare or exotics.

Is this a fact? your previous link does not prove this as far as i can tell.

RNG is RNG. You could be like this guy, look up on Youtube GW2 “Born to be rich”. But the general consensus is just under 1% chance.

Wanze.8410:

It does prove a trend towards it, if you analize the date correctly. You also fail to prove that the droprate for a precursor is the same as for any other exotic, you are just assuming it and then wonder why your calculations are wrong.

Well sir/madam u are right :P I went trough the wiki again and there is no mention of the odds for all items (greatswords in this case) should be the same.

Also i just saw on the wiki that there is also the chance of getting soulbound items. So when counting the items in black lion traiding company i also made a mistake

after some research in other forums

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/info/updates/Game-Update-Notes-November-15-2012

The mighty Zommoros has slightly increased the drop rate on Legendary precursor weapons from the Mystic Forge from both Rares and Exotics.

this actually suggest there is a fixed % of precursor drop

Ken DeBoer.9268:

the general consensus is just under 1% chance.

Yep, and that using exotics, not yellows.

Here is a link to some of the best known evidence of the true odds:

https://forum-en.gw2archive.eu/forum/game/crafting/I-ve-forged-23-Precursors-Here-is-my-data/first#post3470458

Jack.4016:

tertle.4621:

From my experience, the odds of a precursor return from mystic forge is between 1/500 and 1/1000

what are you using for input? rare or exotic / greatswords?

rares, 50% mixed (4 different types), 50% same

I’ve put over 30,000 rares in the forge over the past 14 months