Guild Wars 2

I had to reformat my computer for a few days, and suddenly alot of crafting stuff was suddenly lowered! how did this happen in a span of just a few days? I wanna know

This is a good question. I noticed the same. Copper had been stable for a week at around 18-19 copper and then over one day were I wasn’t online(think it was on thursday) it suddenly dropped to 16. Similar things happened to other crafting mats. Bot maybe, dunno.

Vanilla beans continues to go up higher in price. 1s80c at last check.

Finished crafting material has never made me any money, everyone else can deliver the same finished product. Selling materials, on the other hand, has made me money on certain commodities.

Vanilla beans is an extreme example, but the drop rate on that commodity is so messed up and abysmally low.

Since there really is no market for finished Copper/Bronze products, the demand is limited to what people need to get to the Iron/Silver tier and people upgrading their Copper ore via the MF. Conversely, every lowbie character reliably injects more Copper into the market.

Barring people being stupid I imagine prices will slowly but steadily decline further. Fine crafting materials and cloths are another story since their supply is more randomized. It had to happen sooner or later, basically.

Add to that the fact that the market is being manipulated by botters using tools to automatically buy & sell on the TP, and you’re seeing “daytrading” in action.

some numbers

powerful blood 20s —> 12s
potent blood 2s-→ 1.3s(last checked yesterday)
orichalcum ore 3.1s —> 2.4s (last checked yesterday)

Schakal.6091:

Barring people being stupid I imagine prices will slowly but steadily decline further. Fine crafting materials and cloths are another story since their supply is more randomized. It had to happen sooner or later, basically.

Ofc, I just find it odd, that over basically a day, prices that had been stable for a week dropped so much.

At the same time, iron and platinum are going up in price, and silver has been stable for the last week. I really don’t think this is the result of bots, but of more people getting the items than are reliably buying them.

And given that it’s possible to gain several levels a day, especially on weekends, it doesn’t surprise me that TP prices would fluctuate much more rapidly than real-world commodities. Jewelers in meatspace don’t suddenly lose all interest in copper once they’ve had enough training to use silver, and you don’t make furniture with increasingly older wood as you gain experience in carpentry.

That MAY make sense for lower tier stuff like copper and jute, but what about top-tier stuff like ori ores and gossamer and globs? :O Last time I saw they were selling for 20+s (20 being considered a steal already), but now they’re fluctuating in the 18+s area.

Tbh it’s not the decrease that’s surprising me, it’s the rate in change. Something must’ve happened, some one or some group must’ve manipulated the market somehow or caused it to “crash” or whatever. I’ve heavily followed the prices of those rare stuff before I lost my computer access so I’m really surprised at this. Any other economists wanna take a crack at this? o.O

Gossamer scraps plummeted mid-week but have been rising in price since then. Some of the other stuff might be a matter of more people now having access to them than are able to craft with them yet? That, or people have started farming them for profit because TP prices were pretty high before.

2 reasons imo, kids and 1c undercutting.

1. It’s weekend so all the kids are zerging DEs, getting drops, selling to tp. More supply vs relatively stable demand means cheaper prices.

2. When you go to sell something, it shows you the highest buyer price and the lowest seller price and asks you if you want to put it at that price or not. You don’t see other people’s sale offers.

The first guy who sees an item being sold by someone else at 12.45 will sell his at 12.44
A hundred more people like that make it go to 11.44 and this keeps going until you get to near the highest offer.

If you could instead see the full list of sell offers, you would see that for example 500 people offer at 1300, 1 at 1299, 2 at 1298, 1 at 1297 etc. A person would then just list his price at 1300 to join the other 500 people.

But you don’t see those unless you go do a “buy more from tp” and that requires effort and people are lazy.

I know I’m lazy. I just list for whatever the lowest seller is.

But last week or weekend, prices skyrocketted i kinda xpctd prices to increase at d weekend instead of plumetting down.

It’s probably both Bots and Players’ needs combined.

Crafting Mats like claws, blood, totems are massively diving across all grades. The bots were probably getting tons from loot bags, booty bags, etc.. Causing over supply.

Players that wants to craft are probably maxed out (400) so demand for most grades probably also dropped.

But the rapid drop over a single day may be caused by something else entirely. Things like TP going down, TP not allowing selling or buying can cause large dips I’ve seen.

Yeah, when the TP was down on the 20th of this month, pretty much everything took a huge hit in price when it came back up, since people continued gathering and increasing supply while no one was buying, and the people who would have been buying at that time just went out and gathered as well, so demand didn’t go up to match.

I would generally expect price drops on the weekend, since people have more time to go get things themselves instead of buying off the TP.

Also remember that more and more players are hitting level 80.

I’m not sure where the ‘majority’ of players are at in terms of level but I don’t think they’ve hit 80 yet. I’m tempted to go through all the different areas and find out which ones are full.

Prices dropped for a simple reason – they were to high give the rate of demand vrs supply.

More and more people are learning how to farm stuff – these same people need less and less of the stuff they are farming.

It has more to do with improved farming than with decreased need though.

I suspect that the revamped rewards for completing dungeons has affected the prices of tier 6 exotic items, and all the relevant crafting materials as well – it is simply much easier to get exotics running dungeons than it used to be, and that should lower the demand, and hence the price, of crafted exotics.

The mad rush of 1,000,000 people starting crafting has gone. The only thing holding the price up of most things is people buying up material and trying to corner a market but with unlimited supply and limited customers there is only one direction for prices.
Eventualy the people buying up mats will go broke or give up and TP prices for most things will be 1c over trash price.

indeed as more people level up their crafting professions, the crafting mats price decrease.
The economy is generally going in deflation, with some spikes when Anet introduces changes (example of BL chest).

It is basic supply and demand. As the population levels up the higher end mats and the lower end mats will drop in price (higher lvl pop can farm more high mats and they also tend to alt which means lower end mats get common again). I would gamble the items which have seen stable prices or slightly higher prices are items found between 35-60.

I expect the most items on the two extremes to drop in price for the next week (weekends when the biggest drop happen) while at the same time seeing a slight uptick in price of mid grade items.

Over the weekend, I have seen a massive drop in many items, dyes, fine materials, scraps everything.

Items that have been stable for weeks at certain values suddenly dropped almost over night. Some haven’t been able to recover at all.

Claw’s for example have been stable at around 60-70c for ages then all of sudden this weekend they dropped to sub 20c. 3 days ago buy orders were 22c or more, now they are 11-12c.

As people level their crafting disciplines, the demand for crafting materials will naturally shift away from the lowest tier toward the higher tiers. Right now you see the mid-tier mats spiking as more players require those to progress their craft skills. This pretty much explains the long-term trends in crafting mats.

What your saying would be true if that were the case, but all prices across the board suddenly dropped 50%+, the only logical explanation I can think of is due to a massive influx of items introduced by “bot” users, these users can supply 1000’s of items and happily sell them at the lowest price possible.

This is simply a case of high volume low price, the demand is still there, there’s just no profits in it for normal players due to the bot users undercutting everyone.

My only hope is that any players found using bots are not only banned but anything they have on the TP is removed as well. Reducing the quantity of items and hopefully upping the prices to a realistic level.

Here’s a question for you guys. Do people actually buy gold from botters? Have you encountered bots out there farming anything on your servers. I know I never have. The reason that prices are going down is supply and demand. The number of new players is decreasing. No number of alts can replace a slow down of players and players who stopped playing.

The price of mats is decreasing yet the price for gems is going up. Know what I’m doing? Invest in gems, sell the gems back in a few months for a clear profit. So sell everything you don’t need and invest in gems.

YEah im a gold bug in real life also. Got 40K in gold.

I’ve seen plenty of botters farming trolls in the “safe” area of the canyon.

MadMossy.8715:

all prices across the board suddenly dropped 50%+

No, they really didn’t. Stuff you were trying to sell might have, but quite a few other things have been increasing steadily or have prices that still fluctuate quite a bit.

I would think it’s a combination of bots unloading their mats, player attrition, and progress to higher level. Both player attrition and progression should gradually move the price, but the sudden movement within a few days could be the result of a sudden flood of supply to the market…

What item besides the legendary ingredients is going up in price?

The main problem about botters = Oversupply for cheaper mats on the entire TP = They sell more gold.

What I don’t understand is how rune of the mesmer and rune of the scholar are now worth less than the mats used to create them?

They’re not worth less, you say? Presumably they’re not particularly profitable, or you wouldn’t be posting about it here ^_~

If what you say is true, then these two factors would explain it:
1) There is an actual demand for them, due to having reasonable stats.
2) Due to the rare components and lack of an obvious precursor component such as inscriptions/insignias, people crafting casually are much less likely to discover those recipes in the process of crafting, and so there isn’t crazy supply of them the way there is for some other kinds of items.

After all, people don’t typically just go out and buy a crystal lodestone for the hell of it, and as a drop it’s quite rare.

But a crystal lodestone sells for 1g 30ish silver. Rune of the mesmer’s have been flooded on the trading post and now sell for 1G 15silver. Goss + lodestone = 1g 37ish silver to make, then you resell it at 1G 15silver – auction house fees? That just confuses the crap out of me.

Actually, at current prices you could make a slight profit making runes of the mesmer if you use buy orders for the lodestone and gossamer, and use a sell order on the rune. Highest buy orders on lodestone and gossamer are 1.1g + ~0.03g = 1.13g; lowest sale price is ~1.4g which is 1.19g after taxes – hence you’d be making a 6 silver profit on that rune.

Please note that this is actually atypical; most other items are being sold at a loss,
often a big loss (though you should note that there are often other ways of making items other than crafting; the mystic forge in particular is another example).

The main reason so many other items sell at a loss is because quite a lot of people are crafting not for profit, but for XP or enjoyment.

It’s cool, I made my riches off runes of undead, runes of the pirate, runes of the scholar, and runes of the mesmer before the market crash. I’m curious is arena net is going to give us a stimulus package….

Quickly ANet! I am too big to fail! Give me free gold so I can do absolutely nothing different and pretend I actually needed the gold! Quickly! Before it is too late!

^Lulz…………..

World first legendaries > people decide they want X legendary > people look at price of legendary precursor > people empty bank of all sellables to raise funds for precursor > market price of sellables tanks > future?

This may have been answered, but its because there are so many people selling so many similar items. In order to be competitive, they sell items for one copper less than the competition. And then prices become lowered

I also dont understand the kittens that post stuff 10silver under the lowest price. That really annoys me

If they post 10s under the lowest current selling price, that means the highest current buy order is more than 10s below the lowest current selling price. That can be a sign that the current listings to sell are overpriced, and the undercutters are helping to correct the problem.

Hippocampus, that isn’t entirely true. People ask for a lower price for 2 reasons. 1)They don’t want to pay that much, even if it is currently worth it. Or 2) They are trying to make a profit by offering less because people will sell for lower, and selling higher than they bought it. It is actually a good way to make profit if you know what items to look for. I haven’t done that too much myself, but I have made about 1 gold for less than 10 mins of work. And I only had 3 gold.

Yes, I know how to make money flipping items, but are there really things with spreads of more than 10s that will nonetheless trade reliably at both the current highest bid and the current lowest ask price?

People will ask for lower whether or not it is reliable or likely they will get that item. People will sell to lowest buyer when they are too lazy or “too cool” to play the market. But just because people are offering 10 less silver does not mean that item is suppose to be worth 10 less silver.

What is an item “supposed” to be worth, separate from what people actually reliably pay for it?

What people are willing to pay for it. After all, if no one would buy something for 10s, the price will naturally lower really quickly. But if someone is willing to pay 15s for it, the price will naturally rise. (Of course, supply and demand plays a bigger role, but this still effects it). This is why prices can rise and people still buy a lot of it. I guess this is part of supply and demand. Even if people want it, if they are not willing to pay, but the supply is there, the price goes down until people start to buy.

I know runes et and what the market will bear, but I’m thinking about one today.

I think I was crafting pistols or something like that and I had an extra part. The part was on the TP, lowest seller was 4x the cost to make it. I had my doubts that anyone seriously was going to buy it at that price so I put mine up (I only had 2 extras) for 2x the cost. I guess if it sells quick I can come back and try a little more.

Supply and demand are typically treated as functions of price, rather than as raw values. If no one buys something at 10s, then it means there is no demand for the item at 10s.

Considering the factor time vs the self appraised value of the item and the probability of selling, a seller will post the item for sale at a certain price…or sell it to the highest buyer. There is no “true” value of an item as the amount that is transacted varies across transactions and across time. The price posted is just a function of the three factors above, with the self appraised value being a self estimated function of supply and demand. If I believe something is worth 10s less than the current selling price (putting in the factor of time and probability of selling), and someone buys it at that price, a transaction will occur. Undercutting at 1c or 10s is all natural occurrence when the market tries to adjust/correct to the equilibrium price.

As a fairly simple example, when I see intermediate-stage crafting items (things like rifle stocks rather than finished rifles) listed for significantly more than the TP cost of the materials to make them, I know no one who’s thinking things through will actually buy them at that price. The only people who can use a rifle stock are people who could also make it from scratch, so the only reason one would ever sell on the TP is if it’s at least a bit cheaper than the number of planks needed to make it. So when I sold some the other day (having leveled up the Huntsman craft to the next tier, and seeing no point in filling a bank slot with an item I no longer have any need for), I undercut the previous listing by about 30%. Not because I don’t understand how profit works, but because I know no one will buy that particular item in a way that gives me a profit over materials cost, since if they’re willing to spend that much they’ll just by mats themselves.

well…I’m sure many will find it easier to call you stupid for doing so and supposedly screw up their profits and the economy rather than spending some time to think rationally.